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Gorica vs Kastela Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 06 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 18:00
Scheduled
Position#13
Record1-5
FormWLWLL
Points / game78.7
Allowed / game83.2
vs
Position#7
Record3-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game74.0
Allowed / game71.8
CroatiaPrva LigaRound 20· GSD Velika Gorica
Other2026-27
Meetings · Gorica v Kastela
06 Mar 2027
GORI v KAST
upcoming
11 Oct 2025
GORI79
KAST89
12 Apr 2025
GORI116
KAST109
25 Nov 2023
GORI89
KAST67
06 Feb 2016
GORI98
KAST66
12 May 2015
GORI87
KAST79
22 Nov 2014
GORI109
KAST77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Gorica win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Kastela win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

GoricaCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormGorica
Date
Competition
Sencur
#4
L
70-76
70
76
-6
60avg 72
H17/10
Liga Nova KBM
Jazine
#2
L
95-104
95
104
-9
no box
H18/10
Prva Liga
Polzela
#2
L
67-74
67
74
-7
56avg 72
A24/10
Liga Nova KBM
Hermes
#4
L
59-67
59
67
-8
no box
A25/10
Prva Liga
Mladost
#14
W
95-73
95
73
+22
no box
H31/10
Prva Liga
Tajfun Sentjur
#10
W
75-71
75
71
+4
66avg 72
A31/10
Liga Nova KBM
Dakovo
#6
L
77-86
77
86
-9
no box
A07/11
Prva Liga
KK Triglav Kranj
#8
W
102-80
102
80
+22
no box
H07/11
Liga Nova KBM
KK Krka Novo mesto
#1
L
65-96
65
96
-31
no box
A10/11
Liga Nova KBM
Marsonia
#8
L
72-85
72
85
-13
no box
H14/11
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-18
18-22
10-18
30-18
32-24
15-24
20-28
28-28
10-25
24-13
17-21
16-15
9-20
23-20
12-11
15-16
19-16
28-18
30-17
18-22
24-22
17-20
15-8
19-21
17-21
17-23
23-19
20-23
30-24
21-23
22-20
29-13
13-23
18-19
20-31
14-23
19-19
17-22
14-19
22-25
158.9Avg total
77.7Scored
81.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)78.783.2161.8-4.517%
Season at home (3)87.387.3174.7+0.033%
Season away (3)70.079.0149.0-9.00%
Last 10 (10)77.781.2158.9-3.530%
Last 5 (5)78.283.6161.8-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)71.684.8156.4-13.114%
vs Similar (9)89.783.6173.2+6.167%
vs Weaker (7)86.975.7162.6+11.186%
This opponent (Kastela) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KastelaCroatiaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKastela
Date
Competition
Skrljevo
#1
W
87-81
87
81
+6
86avg 81
H06/05
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#1
L
68-91
68
91
-23
58avg 81
A09/05
Prva Liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#10
L
61-97
61
97
-36
42avg 81
A16/05
Premijer liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#10
L
82-101
82
101
-19
72avg 81
H20/05
Premijer liga
GKK Sibenka
#1
L
67-72
67
72
-5
no box
H11/10
Prva Liga
Novi Zagreb
#5
L
68-71
68
71
-3
no box
A17/10
Prva Liga
Omis
#12
L
65-66
65
66
-1
no box
H25/10
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#10
W
82-70
82
70
+12
no box
A31/10
Prva Liga
Hermes
#4
W
74-73
74
73
+1
no box
H08/11
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#6
W
88-79
88
79
+9
no box
A14/11
Prva Liga
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-21
19-20
22-18
15-22
19-17
22-24
8-26
19-24
15-29
18-16
7-21
21-31
23-39
29-18
13-31
17-13
12-23
16-16
18-19
21-14
17-22
18-12
19-16
14-21
17-14
21-16
11-19
16-17
19-18
25-18
19-23
19-11
16-24
19-15
23-22
16-12
20-20
23-22
21-19
24-18
154.3Avg total
74.2Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)74.071.8145.8+2.250%
Season at home (3)68.770.3139.0-1.733%
Season away (3)79.373.3152.7+6.067%
Last 10 (10)74.280.1154.3-5.940%
Last 5 (5)75.471.8147.2+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)70.090.0160.0-20.00%
vs Similar (8)73.679.1152.8-5.538%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)86.464.3150.7+22.184%
This opponent (Gorica) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: -3.8-3.8Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -5.3-5.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -0.1-0.1
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: -3.8-3.8Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: +3.3+3.3Q3Q3: -0.9-0.9Q3: -5.3-5.3Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: -0.1-0.1
GoricaKastela
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
GoricaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sencur
#4
L
30-40
30
40
-10
H17/10
Liga Nova KBM
Jazine
#2
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H18/10
Prva Liga
Polzela
#2
L
34-38
34
38
-4
A24/10
Liga Nova KBM
Hermes
#4
L
32-40
32
40
-8
A25/10
Prva Liga
Mladost
#14
W
47-34
47
34
+13
H31/10
Prva Liga
Tajfun Sentjur
#10
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A31/10
Liga Nova KBM
Dakovo
#6
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A07/11
Prva Liga
KK Triglav Kranj
#8
W
51-47
51
47
+4
H07/11
Liga Nova KBM
KK Krka Novo mesto
#1
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A10/11
Liga Nova KBM
Marsonia
#8
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H14/11
Prva Liga
79.9Avg total
38.3Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.543.182.6-3.627%-
Last 30 at home (13)44.543.287.7+1.254%-
Last 30 away (17)35.643.078.6-7.46%-
Last 10 (10)38.341.679.9-3.320%-
Last 5 (5)38.643.281.8-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)36.742.779.4-6.07%-
vs Similar (9)42.145.887.9-3.733%-
vs Weaker (7)41.640.482.0+1.157%-
This opponent (Kastela) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KastelaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Skrljevo
#1
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H06/05
Prva Liga
Skrljevo
#1
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A09/05
Prva Liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#10
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A16/05
Premijer liga
Dinamo Zagreb
#10
L
52-57
52
57
-5
H20/05
Premijer liga
GKK Sibenka
#1
L
28-39
28
39
-11
H11/10
Prva Liga
Novi Zagreb
#5
W
35-34
35
34
+1
A17/10
Prva Liga
Omis
#12
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H25/10
Prva Liga
Sonik Puntamika
#10
W
44-36
44
36
+8
A31/10
Prva Liga
Hermes
#4
L
35-39
35
39
-4
H08/11
Prva Liga
Dakovo
#6
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A14/11
Prva Liga
80.3Avg total
39.9Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.435.877.2+5.667%-
Last 30 at home (15)44.735.380.0+9.567%-
Last 30 away (15)38.136.374.4+1.767%-
Last 10 (10)39.940.480.3-0.550%-
Last 5 (5)39.036.275.2+2.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)37.747.084.7-9.30%-
vs Similar (8)37.139.876.9-2.638%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)43.832.476.2+11.489%-
This opponent (Gorica) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Goricatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Gorica: 75.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
51%
33%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.119.0
49.9%
53.1%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.28.4
29.8%
32.7%25.2
🏀 Free throws18.611.8
63.4%
71.7%11.8
They take 66.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Kastelatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Kastela: 78.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀46%
🏀
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀 Free throws6.9 pts a game · 9% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.1 points a game
51%
33%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.517.8
56.5%
53.1%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.312.0
36.0%
32.7%36.0
🏀 Free throws10.46.9
66.3%
71.7%6.9
They take 64.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Gorica
LLWLWWLLLL
Kastela
WWWLLLLLLW
#13
League position
#7
-5.5
Net rating
+1.7
85.5
Offensive rating
93.6
91.0
Defensive rating
91.9
47.7%
Effective FG%
55.2%
53.9%
Opp. effective FG%
53.6%
17.9%
Turnover %
18.5%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.16
29.8%
3-point %
36.0%
65.3%
Assist %
74.5%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence85.5 · 93.6Defence91.0 · 91.9Shooting47.7% · 55.2%3-point %29.8% · 36.0%Ball care17.9% · 18.5%Free throws0.28 · 0.16Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Gorica   ■ Kastela
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Gorica wins
3
Kastela wins
DateGameScore
24/01/26Kastela v Gorica80-68
11/10/25Gorica v Kastela79-89
12/04/25Gorica v Kastela116-109 OT
11/01/25Kastela v Gorica78-80
03/03/24Kastela v Gorica61-67
25/11/23Gorica v Kastela89-67
06/02/16Gorica v Kastela98-66
28/10/15Kastela v Gorica72-99
12/05/15Gorica v Kastela87-79
21/04/15Kastela v Gorica97-92
Goricalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HMarsonia72-85
10/11/26AKK Krka Novo mesto65-96
07/11/26HKK Triglav Kranj102-80
07/11/26ADakovo77-86
31/10/26ATajfun Sentjur75-71
31/10/26HMladost95-73
25/10/26AHermes59-67
24/10/26APolzela67-74
18/10/26HJazine95-104
17/10/26HSencur70-76
Kastelalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ADakovo88-79
08/11/26HHermes74-73
31/10/26ASonik Puntamika82-70
25/10/26HOmis65-66
17/10/26ANovi Zagreb68-71
11/10/26HGKK Sibenka67-72
20/05/26HDinamo Zagreb82-101
16/05/26ADinamo Zagreb61-97
09/05/26ASkrljevo68-91
06/05/26HSkrljevo87-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Gorica
Prva Liga 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL17%
HomeLWL33%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %17%33%0%
Points / game78.787.370.0
Allowed / game83.287.379.0
Point differential-4.5+0.0-9.0
Avg total161.8174.7149.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Kastela
Prva Liga 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW50%
HomeLLW33%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %50%33%67%
Points / game74.068.779.3
Allowed / game71.870.373.3
Point differential+2.2-1.7+6.0
Avg total145.8139.0152.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)33% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 GKK Sibenka660100%85.271.3+13.8
2 Jazine64267%84.078.0+6.0
3 KK Zagreb64267%77.271.2+6.0
4 Hermes64267%73.571.3+2.2
5 Novi Zagreb64267%76.774.8+1.8
6 Dakovo63350%88.285.2+3.0
7 Kastela63350%74.071.8+2.2
8 Marsonia63350%75.575.8-0.3
9 Crikvenica63350%73.073.8-0.8
10 Sonik Puntamika63350%81.284.3-3.2
11 Radnik Krizevci62433%77.275.5+1.7
12 Omis62433%71.575.8-4.3
13 Gorica61517%78.783.2-4.5
14 Mladost6060%66.790.2-23.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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