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Vaerlose vs Holbaek-Stenhus Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 15 Feb 2024
Tip-off: 18:15
Final 99-80
27-17 28-20 31-20 13-23
Position#7
Record8-10
FormWLLLW
Points / game80.8
Allowed / game87.6
vs
Position#10
Record3-16
FormWLLLL
Points / game69.6
Allowed / game90.5
DenmarkBasketligaen· Sondersohallen (Vaerlose)
Other2023-24
Meetings · Vaerlose v Holbaek-Stenhus
24 Oct 2026
VAER64
HOLB68
28 Mar 2026
VAER87
HOLB80
29 Oct 2025
VAER87
HOLB83
31 Mar 2025
VAER100
HOLB98
07 Dec 2024
VAER88
HOLB90
17 Nov 2024
VAER100
HOLB86
15 Feb 2024
VAER99
HOLB80
12 Apr 2023
VAER104
HOLB60
16 Feb 2023
VAER90
HOLB68
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Vaerlose winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Holbaek-Stenhus winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VaerloseDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVaerlose
Date
Competition
Horsens
#4
L
71-90
71
90
-19
no box
H12/11
Denmark Cup
Holbaek-Stenhus
#10
W
78-70
78
70
+8
60avg 71
A16/11
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#3
L
95-99
95
99
-4
87avg 71
H09/12
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#4
L
84-85
84
85
-1
75avg 71
A17/12
Basketligaen
Amager
#11
W
91-89
91
89
+2
86avg 71
H28/12
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
W
81-76
81
76
+5
77avg 71
H07/01
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#5
L
76-98
76
98
-22
61avg 71
A15/01
Basketligaen
Horsens
#2
L
78-99
78
99
-21
72avg 71
H25/01
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#1
L
76-98
76
98
-22
61avg 71
H03/02
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
W
80-79
80
79
+1
73avg 71
A11/02
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-17
21-31
19-20
16-22
26-11
17-23
20-22
15-14
23-35
24-22
26-18
22-24
25-27
14-25
18-17
27-16
24-23
22-25
23-17
22-24
32-21
15-21
20-19
14-15
17-25
17-23
24-31
18-19
20-23
19-29
21-23
18-24
17-17
17-21
21-31
21-29
23-18
16-19
18-23
23-19
169.3Avg total
81.0Scored
88.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)80.887.6168.4-6.844%
Season at home (9)82.987.3170.2-4.444%
Season away (9)78.887.9166.7-9.144%
Last 10 (10)81.088.3169.3-7.340%
Last 5 (5)78.290.0168.2-11.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)78.292.6170.8-14.317%
vs Similar (7)77.477.7155.1-0.371%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)87.575.6163.1+11.980%
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holbaek-StenhusDenmarkLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHolbaek-Stenhus
Date
Competition
Bakken Bears
#1
L
52-109
52
109
-57
32avg 55
H29/11
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
L
87-115
87
115
-28
70avg 55
H08/12
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#1
L
67-101
67
101
-34
55avg 55
A17/12
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#5
L
77-115
77
115
-38
50avg 55
A30/12
Basketligaen
Horsens
#2
L
61-76
61
76
-15
53avg 55
H03/01
Basketligaen
Amager
#11
W
69-47
69
47
+22
58avg 55
H07/01
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#4
L
74-88
74
88
-14
61avg 55
A12/01
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#3
L
73-92
73
92
-19
56avg 55
H24/01
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
L
79-85
79
85
-6
64avg 55
A01/02
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
76-104
76
104
-28
60avg 55
H09/02
Basketligaen
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-20
15-29
10-34
15-26
17-36
25-25
16-20
29-34
17-31
13-31
17-22
20-17
20-25
15-26
27-35
15-29
8-20
19-23
12-12
22-21
22-14
17-10
16-12
14-11
16-24
26-25
15-14
17-25
25-27
20-24
13-14
15-27
22-27
19-21
10-20
28-17
14-28
24-25
17-22
21-29
164.7Avg total
71.5Scored
93.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)69.690.5160.1-20.916%
Season at home (10)68.887.7156.5-18.910%
Season away (9)70.493.7164.1-23.222%
Last 10 (10)71.593.2164.7-21.710%
Last 5 (5)74.283.2157.4-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)68.192.8160.9-24.78%
vs Similar (4)73.272.0145.2+1.250%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -7.9-7.9Q2Q2: -5.7-5.7Q2: -4.6-4.6Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -5.2-5.2Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -4.0-4.0
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -7.9-7.9Q2Q2: -5.7-5.7Q2: -4.6-4.6Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: -5.2-5.2Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -4.0-4.0
VaerloseHolbaek-Stenhus
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Horsens
#4
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H12/11
Denmark Cup
Holbaek-Stenhus
#10
W
43-34
43
34
+9
A16/11
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#3
L
47-57
47
57
-10
H09/12
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#4
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A17/12
Basketligaen
Amager
#11
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H28/12
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H07/01
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#5
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A15/01
Basketligaen
Horsens
#2
L
39-52
39
52
-13
H25/01
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#1
L
34-38
34
38
-4
H03/02
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A11/02
Basketligaen
86.0Avg total
40.4Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.941.482.3-0.647%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.642.084.6+0.650%-
Last 30 away (14)38.940.879.6-1.943%-
Last 10 (10)40.445.686.0-5.230%-
Last 5 (5)38.643.482.0-4.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)39.545.785.2-6.233%-
vs Similar (7)39.737.777.4+2.057%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)43.838.382.1+5.560%-
This opponent (Holbaek-Stenhus) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Holbaek-StenhusLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Bakken Bears
#1
L
27-49
27
49
-22
H29/11
Basketligaen
Randers
#6
L
42-61
42
61
-19
H08/12
Basketligaen
Bakken Bears
#1
L
30-62
30
62
-32
A17/12
Basketligaen
Svendborg
#5
L
35-51
35
51
-16
A30/12
Basketligaen
Horsens
#2
L
27-43
27
43
-16
H03/01
Basketligaen
Amager
#11
W
39-24
39
24
+15
H07/01
Basketligaen
Copenhagen
#4
L
42-49
42
49
-7
A12/01
Basketligaen
Team FOG Naestved
#3
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H24/01
Basketligaen
Herlev Wolfpack
#9
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A01/02
Basketligaen
Bears Academy
#8
L
38-53
38
53
-15
H09/02
Basketligaen
85.7Avg total
36.6Scored
49.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.844.778.5-10.917%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.044.079.0-9.020%-
Last 30 away (15)32.645.377.9-12.713%-
Last 10 (10)36.649.185.7-12.510%-
Last 5 (5)41.045.086.0-4.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)33.446.980.3-13.58%-
vs Similar (4)39.234.874.0+4.575%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Vaerlose) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Vaerlosetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vaerlose: 81.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.3 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.320.4
47.1%
51.8%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.78.4
31.5%
31.7%25.2
🏀 Free throws21.915.8
72.1%
67.0%15.8
They take 70.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Holbaek-Stenhustheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Holbaek-Stenhus: 70.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.6 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.3 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.621.5
45.2%
51.8%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.36.2
22.7%
31.7%18.6
🏀 Free throws16.29.1
56.2%
67.0%9.1
They take 74.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Feb 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Vaerlose
WLLLWWLLWL
Holbaek-Stenhus
LLLLWLLLLL
#7
League position
#10
-7.2
Net rating
-25.7
103.1
Offensive rating
85.4
110.3
Defensive rating
111.2
47.1%
Effective FG%
41.1%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.8%
16.6%
Turnover %
18.9%
31.9%
Off. rebound %
30.5%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.22
31.5%
3-point %
22.7%
68.1%
Assist %
50.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence103.1 · 85.4Defence110.3 · 111.2Shooting47.1% · 41.1%3-point %31.5% · 22.7%Ball care16.6% · 18.9%Off. rebounds31.9% · 30.5%Free throws0.31 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)40% · 10%
■ Vaerlose   ■ Holbaek-Stenhus
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Vaerlose wins
0
Holbaek-Stenhus wins
Vaerloselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/02/24ARanders80-79
03/02/24HBakken Bears76-98
25/01/24HHorsens78-99
15/01/24ASvendborg76-98
07/01/24HHerlev Wolfpack81-76
28/12/23HAmager91-89
17/12/23ACopenhagen84-85
09/12/23HTeam FOG Naestved95-99
16/11/23AHolbaek-Stenhus78-70
12/11/23HHorsens71-90
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/24HBears Academy76-104
01/02/24AHerlev Wolfpack79-85
24/01/24HTeam FOG Naestved73-92
12/01/24ACopenhagen74-88
07/01/24HAmager69-47
03/01/24HHorsens61-76
30/12/23ASvendborg77-115
17/12/23ABakken Bears67-101
08/12/23HRanders87-115
29/11/23HBakken Bears52-109

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Vaerlose
Basketligaen 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW44%
HomeLWWLL44%
AwayLWLLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %44%44%44%
Points / game80.882.978.8
Allowed / game87.687.387.9
Point differential-6.8-4.4-9.1
Avg total168.4170.2166.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%0%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)50% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Holbaek-Stenhus
Basketligaen 2023-24
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL16%
HomeLLWLL10%
AwayWLLLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19109
Win %16%10%22%
Points / game69.668.870.4
Allowed / game90.587.793.7
Point differential-20.9-18.9-23.2
Avg total160.1156.5164.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%10%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)-100% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Bakken Bears1918195%102.474.9+27.5
2 Horsens1916384%90.472.1+18.4
3 Team FOG Naestved1915479%96.480.8+15.5
4 Svendborg1915479%90.580.2+10.3
5 Randers1910953%93.986.6+7.4
6 Copenhagen20101050%82.079.2+2.8
7 Vaerlose1881044%80.887.6-6.8
8 Bears Academy1851328%76.085.6-9.6
9 Herlev Wolfpack1931616%74.393.0-18.7
10 Holbaek-Stenhus1931616%69.690.5-20.9
11 Amager191185%72.899.6-26.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Vaerlose2728311399
Holbaek-Stenhus1720202380
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