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Kaspiy Aktau vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 09 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 12:00
Final 96-75
29-21 16-16 29-17 22-21
Position#6
Record9-14
FormLLLLW
Points / game72.4
Allowed / game76.0
vs
Position#8
Record3-20
FormLLLLL
Points / game70.8
Allowed / game85.7
KazakhstanNational League· Halyk Arena
Other2024-25
Meetings · Kaspiy Aktau v Pavlodar
09 Mar 2025
KASP96
PAVL75
08 Mar 2025
KASP82
PAVL79
08 Feb 2024
KASP94
PAVL88
07 Feb 2024
KASP78
PAVL69
30 Nov 2017
KASP79
PAVL48
29 Nov 2017
KASP72
PAVL47
12 Dec 2015
KASP88
PAVL34
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kaspiy Aktau winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pavlodar winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Kaspiy AktauKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAktau
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#8
W
70-62
70
62
+8
66avg 70
A17/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
60-98
60
98
-38
no box
A21/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
70-87
70
87
-17
no box
A22/12
National League
Almaty
#4
L
72-74
72
74
-2
71avg 70
H05/01
National League
Almaty
#4
W
91-68
91
68
+23
105avg 70
H06/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
63-75
63
75
-12
58avg 70
H13/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
55-71
55
71
-16
46avg 70
H14/01
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
81-94
81
94
-13
83avg 70
H03/03
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
61-74
61
74
-13
59avg 70
H04/03
National League
Pavlodar
#8
W
82-79 OT
82
79
+3
81avg 70
H08/03
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-7
15-21
15-17
18-17
16-20
12-30
11-20
21-28
23-25
17-32
18-12
12-18
24-16
15-18
17-19
16-21
22-17
29-16
20-18
20-17
20-23
15-12
15-18
13-22
12-19
15-20
13-19
15-13
18-20
17-33
26-21
20-20
16-22
13-12
17-21
15-19
22-25
26-11
12-21
14-17
148.7Avg total
70.5Scored
78.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)72.476.0148.5-3.639%
Season at home (13)75.575.1150.6+0.546%
Season away (10)68.477.3145.7-8.930%
Last 10 (10)70.578.2148.7-7.730%
Last 5 (5)68.478.6147.0-10.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)68.586.1154.6-17.713%
vs Similar (10)72.177.3149.4-5.230%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)79.273.6152.8+5.680%
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarKazakhstanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPavlodar
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
62-70
62
70
-8
50avg 61
H17/12
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
76-94
76
94
-18
62avg 61
H21/12
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
69-79
69
79
-10
65avg 61
H22/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
69-87
69
87
-18
61avg 61
A05/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
75-89
75
89
-14
76avg 61
A06/01
National League
Almaty
#4
L
70-90
70
90
-20
58avg 61
A11/01
National League
Almaty
#4
L
89-102
89
102
-13
80avg 61
A12/01
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
74-105
74
105
-31
60avg 61
A15/01
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
64-96
64
96
-32
57avg 61
A16/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
79-82 OT
79
82
-3
69avg 61
A08/03
National League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
7-22
21-15
17-15
17-18
15-23
17-37
29-17
15-17
22-21
20-17
17-19
10-22
16-19
20-21
6-27
27-20
21-16
21-30
22-23
11-20
18-20
17-22
15-21
20-27
27-31
21-29
21-25
20-17
10-38
25-16
24-23
15-28
19-21
14-25
15-20
16-30
25-22
11-26
21-12
17-14
162.1Avg total
72.7Scored
89.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)70.885.7156.5-14.913%
Season at home (12)68.185.4153.5-17.38%
Season away (11)73.786.0159.7-12.318%
Last 10 (10)72.789.4162.1-16.70%
Last 5 (5)75.295.0170.2-19.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)69.987.9157.8-18.010%
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: -5.3-5.3Q2Q2: -3.1-3.1Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: -4.5-4.5
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: -5.3-5.3Q2Q2: -3.1-3.1Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: -2.8-2.8Q4: -4.5-4.5
Kaspiy AktauPavlodar
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Kaspiy AktauLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pavlodar
#8
W
37-28
37
28
+9
A17/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
28-50
28
50
-22
A21/12
National League
Astana 2
#3
L
40-57
40
57
-17
A22/12
National League
Almaty
#4
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H05/01
National League
Almaty
#4
W
51-33
51
33
+18
H06/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
D
35-35
35
35
+0
H13/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
27-39
27
39
-12
H14/01
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
35-53
35
53
-18
H03/03
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
29-34
29
34
-5
H04/03
National League
Pavlodar
#8
W
48-36
48
36
+12
H08/03
National League
76.8Avg total
36.9Scored
39.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.140.274.4-6.130%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.938.874.7-2.838%-
Last 30 away (14)32.141.974.0-9.921%-
Last 10 (10)36.939.976.8-3.040%-
Last 5 (5)34.839.474.2-4.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)31.743.274.9-11.57%-
vs Similar (10)36.239.575.7-3.350%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)37.432.870.2+4.660%-
This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
28-37
28
37
-9
H17/12
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
32-60
32
60
-28
H21/12
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H22/12
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A05/01
National League
Tobol Kostanay
#2
L
42-46
42
46
-4
A06/01
National League
Almaty
#4
L
35-42
35
42
-7
A11/01
National League
Almaty
#4
L
48-60
48
60
-12
A12/01
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
35-54
35
54
-19
A15/01
National League
Irbis Almaty
#1
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A16/01
National League
Kaspiy Aktau
#6
L
36-48
36
48
-12
A08/03
National League
83.8Avg total
36.7Scored
47.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.945.679.5-11.710%-
Last 30 at home (15)32.946.178.9-13.213%-
Last 30 away (15)35.045.180.1-10.17%-
Last 10 (10)36.747.183.8-10.410%-
Last 5 (5)37.450.087.4-12.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)33.945.679.5-11.710%-
vs Similarno games
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Kaspiy Aktau wins
3
Pavlodar wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/25HPavlodar82-79 OT
04/03/25HIrbis Almaty61-74
03/03/25HIrbis Almaty81-94
14/01/25HTobol Kostanay55-71
13/01/25HTobol Kostanay63-75
06/01/25HAlmaty91-68
05/01/25HAlmaty72-74
22/12/24AAstana 270-87
21/12/24AAstana 260-98
17/12/24APavlodar70-62
Pavlodarlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/25AKaspiy Aktau79-82 OT
16/01/25AIrbis Almaty64-96
15/01/25AIrbis Almaty74-105
12/01/25AAlmaty89-102
11/01/25AAlmaty70-90
06/01/25ATobol Kostanay75-89
05/01/25ATobol Kostanay69-87
22/12/24HIrbis Almaty69-79
21/12/24HIrbis Almaty76-94
17/12/24HKaspiy Aktau62-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kaspiy Aktau
National League 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW39%
HomeLLLLW46%
AwayLLWLL30%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231310
Win %39%46%30%
Points / game72.475.568.4
Allowed / game76.075.177.3
Point differential-3.6+0.5-8.9
Avg total148.5150.6145.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%31%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %4%8%0%
Pavlodar
National League 2024-25
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL13%
HomeLWLLL8%
AwayLLLLL18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231211
Win %13%8%18%
Points / game70.868.173.7
Allowed / game85.785.486.0
Point differential-14.9-17.3-12.3
Avg total156.5153.5159.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%8%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %4%0%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tobol Kostanay2118386%87.775.5+12.2
2 Irbis Almaty1915479%81.269.1+12.1
3 Almaty2014670%80.575.1+5.5
4 Atyrau23131057%80.376.1+4.2
5 Kaspiy Aktau2391439%72.476.0-3.6
6 Astana 22491538%74.781.2-6.5
7 Aktobe1531220%72.079.3-7.3
8 Pavlodar2332013%70.885.7-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Kaspiy Aktau2916292296
Pavlodar2116172175
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