Kaspiy Aktau vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 08 Mar 2025

Tip-off: 12:00

Final 82-79 (OT)

22-25 26-11 12-21 14-17 8-5

Position#6

Record8-14

FormWLLLL

Points / game72.0

Allowed / game75.9

Kaspiy Aktau 🏆

Pavlodar

Position#8

Record3-19

FormLLLLL

Points / game70.4

Allowed / game85.9

National League· Halyk Arena

Other2024-25

Meetings · Kaspiy Aktau v Pavlodar

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kaspiy Aktau winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Pavlodar winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Kaspiy Aktau Kazakhstan

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormAktau

Date

Competition

Pavlodar

69-86

-17

64avg 69

A16/12

National League

Pavlodar

70-62

66avg 69

A17/12

National League

Astana 2

60-98

-38

no box

A21/12

National League

Astana 2

70-87

-17

no box

A22/12

National League

Almaty

72-74

-2

71avg 69

H05/01

National League

Almaty

91-68

+23

105avg 69

H06/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

63-75

-12

58avg 69

H13/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

55-71

-16

46avg 69

H14/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

81-94

-13

83avg 69

H03/03

National League

Irbis Almaty

61-74

-13

59avg 69

H04/03

National League

16-14

13-22

21-25

19-25

22-7

15-21

15-17

18-17

16-20

12-30

11-20

21-28

23-25

17-32

18-12

12-18

24-16

15-18

17-19

16-21

22-17

29-16

20-18

20-17

20-23

15-12

15-18

13-22

12-19

15-20

13-19

15-13

18-20

17-33

26-21

20-20

16-22

13-12

17-21

15-19

148.1Avg total

69.2Scored

78.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (22)	72.0	75.9	147.9	-3.9	36%
Season at home (12)	75.0	74.8	149.8	+0.2	42%
Season away (10)	68.4	77.3	145.7	-8.9	30%
Last 10 (10)	69.2	78.9	148.1	-9.7	20%
Last 5 (5)	70.2	76.4	146.6	-6.2	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	68.5	86.1	154.6	-17.7	13%
vs Similar (11)	74.1	78.3	152.4	-4.2	36%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	78.5	72.2	150.8	+6.2	75%

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Pavlodar

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPavlodar

Date

Competition

Kaspiy Aktau

86-69

+17

79avg 61

H16/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

62-70

-8

50avg 61

H17/12

National League

Irbis Almaty

76-94

-18

62avg 61

H21/12

National League

Irbis Almaty

69-79

-10

65avg 61

H22/12

National League

Tobol Kostanay

69-87

-18

61avg 61

A05/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

75-89

-14

76avg 61

A06/01

National League

Almaty

70-90

-20

58avg 61

A11/01

National League

Almaty

89-102

102

-13

80avg 61

A12/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

74-105

105

-31

60avg 61

A15/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

64-96

-32

57avg 61

A16/01

National League

14-16

22-13

25-21

25-19

7-22

21-15

17-15

17-18

15-23

17-37

29-17

15-17

22-21

20-17

17-19

10-22

16-19

20-21

6-27

27-20

21-16

21-30

22-23

11-20

18-20

17-22

15-21

20-27

27-31

21-29

21-25

20-17

10-38

25-16

24-23

15-28

19-21

14-25

15-20

16-30

161.5Avg total

73.4Scored

88.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (22)	70.4	85.9	156.3	-15.5	14%
Season at home (12)	68.1	85.4	153.5	-17.3	8%
Season away (10)	73.2	86.4	159.6	-13.2	20%
Last 10 (10)	73.4	88.1	161.5	-14.7	10%
Last 5 (5)	74.4	96.4	170.8	-22.0	0%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)	69.6	88.1	157.7	-18.5	10%
vs Similar (1)	88.0	94.0	182.0	-6.0	0%
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Kaspiy AktauPavlodar

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.9	19.4	37.3	-1.5	37%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	18.6	19.4	38.1	-0.8	38%	-
Last 30 away (14)	17.0	19.4	36.4	-2.4	36%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.9	18.3	37.2	+0.6	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.6	20.2	37.8	-2.6	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	15.9	21.2	37.1	-5.3	13%	-
vs Similar (11)	19.9	18.6	38.5	+1.3	55%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	19.5	14.8	34.2	+4.8	75%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	16.2	23.9	40.1	-7.7	13%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	14.7	24.2	38.9	-9.5	7%	-
Last 30 away (15)	17.7	23.6	41.3	-5.9	20%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.9	22.7	39.6	-5.8	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.0	25.2	44.2	-6.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)	15.7	23.9	39.5	-8.2	10%	-
vs Similar (1)	31.0	25.0	56.0	+6.0	100%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	15.9	21.3	37.2	-5.4	17%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	16.7	20.2	36.9	-3.5	25%	-
Last 30 away (14)	15.1	22.6	37.6	-7.5	7%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.1	21.6	37.7	-5.5	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	17.8	18.6	36.4	-0.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	15.7	22.0	37.7	-6.3	20%	-
vs Similar (11)	16.5	21.8	38.3	-5.4	9%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	15.2	17.2	32.5	-2.0	25%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.2	21.4	39.6	-3.1	23%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	18.2	21.9	40.1	-3.7	20%	-
Last 30 away (15)	18.3	20.9	39.1	-2.6	27%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.8	22.5	42.3	-2.7	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.6	24.4	44.0	-4.8	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)	18.2	21.7	39.9	-3.4	21%	-
vs Similar (1)	19.0	13.0	32.0	+6.0	100%	-
vs Weaker	no games

Kaspiy AktauLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Pavlodar

29-36

-7

A16/12

National League

Pavlodar

37-28

A17/12

National League

Astana 2

28-50

-22

A21/12

National League

Astana 2

40-57

-17

A22/12

National League

Almaty

39-34

H05/01

National League

Almaty

51-33

+18

H06/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

35-35

H13/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

27-39

-12

H14/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

35-53

-18

H03/03

National League

Irbis Almaty

29-34

-5

H04/03

National League

74.9Avg total

35.0Scored

39.9Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	33.8	40.7	74.5	-6.9	27%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	35.3	39.6	74.9	-4.3	31%	-
Last 30 away (14)	32.1	41.9	74.0	-9.9	21%	-
Last 10 (10)	35.0	39.9	74.9	-4.9	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	35.4	38.8	74.2	-3.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	31.7	43.2	74.9	-11.5	7%	-
vs Similar (11)	36.4	40.5	76.8	-4.1	45%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	34.8	32.0	66.8	+2.8	50%	-

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Kaspiy Aktau

36-29

H16/12

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

28-37

-9

H17/12

National League

Irbis Almaty

32-60

-28

H21/12

National League

Irbis Almaty

42-38

H22/12

National League

Tobol Kostanay

36-40

-4

A05/01

National League

Tobol Kostanay

42-46

-4

A06/01

National League

Almaty

35-42

-7

A11/01

National League

Almaty

48-60

-12

A12/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

35-54

-19

A15/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

33-46

-13

A16/01

National League

81.9Avg total

36.7Scored

45.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	34.4	45.3	79.7	-10.9	13%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	32.9	46.1	78.9	-13.2	13%	-
Last 30 away (15)	35.9	44.5	80.4	-8.5	13%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.7	45.2	81.9	-8.5	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	38.6	49.6	88.2	-11.0	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)	33.9	45.5	79.4	-11.7	10%	-
vs Similar (1)	50.0	38.0	88.0	+12.0	100%	-
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Kaspiy Aktau) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.2	19.6	37.8	-1.4	30%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	18.8	19.0	37.8	-0.2	38%	-
Last 30 away (14)	17.5	20.3	37.8	-2.8	21%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.3	19.0	36.3	-1.7	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.2	19.4	37.6	-1.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	19.0	20.5	39.5	-1.5	20%	-
vs Similar (11)	15.8	18.6	34.5	-2.8	36%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	21.5	19.0	40.5	+2.5	50%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.7	23.0	40.8	-5.3	30%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	18.6	23.5	42.1	-4.9	33%	-
Last 30 away (15)	16.9	22.6	39.5	-5.7	27%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.1	21.1	40.2	-2.0	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	22.4	41.8	-3.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)	18.0	23.0	41.0	-4.9	31%	-
vs Similar (1)	9.0	25.0	34.0	-16.0	0%	-
vs Weaker	no games

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	19.6	21.0	40.6	-1.4	47%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	20.3	20.1	40.4	+0.2	50%	-
Last 30 away (14)	18.8	22.1	40.9	-3.3	43%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.9	20.0	36.9	-3.1	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.6	18.2	34.8	-1.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	17.8	22.5	40.3	-4.7	27%	-
vs Similar (11)	21.1	18.9	40.0	+2.2	64%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	22.2	21.2	43.5	+1.0	75%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.0	19.7	37.7	-1.7	40%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	16.5	19.3	35.7	-2.8	33%	-
Last 30 away (15)	19.5	20.1	39.7	-0.6	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.6	21.8	39.4	-4.2	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.4	24.4	40.8	-8.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)	17.7	19.6	37.3	-1.9	38%	-
vs Similar (1)	26.0	22.0	48.0	+4.0	100%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	37.8	40.6	78.4	-2.8	30%	-
Last 30 at home (16)	39.1	39.1	78.1	+0.0	44%	-
Last 30 away (14)	36.3	42.4	78.6	-6.1	14%	-
Last 10 (10)	34.2	39.0	73.2	-4.8	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	34.8	37.6	72.4	-2.8	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	36.8	42.9	79.7	-6.1	20%	-
vs Similar (11)	36.9	37.5	74.5	-0.6	36%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)	43.8	40.2	84.0	+3.5	50%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	35.7	42.7	78.5	-7.0	20%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	35.1	42.7	77.8	-7.7	27%	-
Last 30 away (15)	36.4	42.7	79.1	-6.3	13%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.7	42.9	79.6	-6.2	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	35.8	46.8	82.6	-11.0	0%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (29)	35.8	42.6	78.3	-6.8	21%	-
vs Similar (1)	35.0	47.0	82.0	-12.0	0%	-
vs Weaker	no games

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Kaspiy Aktau wins

Pavlodar wins

Date	Game	Score
17/12/24	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	62-70
16/12/24	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	86-69
08/02/24	Kaspiy Aktau v Pavlodar	94-88 OT
07/02/24	Kaspiy Aktau v Pavlodar	78-69
19/11/23	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	77-85
18/11/23	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	74-96
10/04/23	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	60-61
19/11/22	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	70-47
24/10/22	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	77-73
01/12/17	Pavlodar v Kaspiy Aktau	64-81

Kaspiy Aktaulast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/03/25	H	Irbis Almaty	61-74
03/03/25	H	Irbis Almaty	81-94
14/01/25	H	Tobol Kostanay	55-71
13/01/25	H	Tobol Kostanay	63-75
06/01/25	H	Almaty	91-68
05/01/25	H	Almaty	72-74
22/12/24	A	Astana 2	70-87
21/12/24	A	Astana 2	60-98
17/12/24	A	Pavlodar	70-62
16/12/24	A	Pavlodar	69-86

Pavlodarlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
16/01/25	A	Irbis Almaty	64-96
15/01/25	A	Irbis Almaty	74-105
12/01/25	A	Almaty	89-102
11/01/25	A	Almaty	70-90
06/01/25	A	Tobol Kostanay	75-89
05/01/25	A	Tobol Kostanay	69-87
22/12/24	H	Irbis Almaty	69-79
21/12/24	H	Irbis Almaty	76-94
17/12/24	H	Kaspiy Aktau	62-70
16/12/24	H	Kaspiy Aktau	86-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Kaspiy Aktau

National League 2024-25

Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLLLL	36%
Home	WLLLL	42%
Away	LLWLL	30%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	22	12	10
Win %	36%	42%	30%
Points / game	72.0	75.0	68.4
Allowed / game	75.9	74.8	77.3
Point differential	-3.9	+0.2	-8.9
Avg total	147.9	149.8	145.7
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	18%	33%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (6)	33% (3)	33% (3)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Pavlodar

National League 2024-25

Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLLL	14%
Home	LWLLL	8%
Away	LLLLL	20%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	22	12	10
Win %	14%	8%	20%
Points / game	70.4	68.1	73.2
Allowed / game	85.9	85.4	86.4
Point differential	-15.5	-17.3	-13.2
Avg total	156.3	153.5	159.6
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	9%	8%	10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	-	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Tobol Kostanay	20	17	3	85%	87.9	75.5	+12.3
2	Irbis Almaty	19	15	4	79%	81.2	69.1	+12.1
3	Almaty	19	13	6	68%	83.7	79.1	+4.7
4	Atyrau	22	13	9	59%	80.5	75.7	+4.8
5	Astana 2	24	9	15	38%	74.7	81.2	-6.5
6	Kaspiy Aktau	22	8	14	36%	72.0	75.9	-3.9
7	Aktobe	14	3	11	21%	77.1	83.6	-6.4
8	Pavlodar	22	3	19	14%	70.4	85.9	-15.5

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Final
Kaspiy Aktau	22	26	12	14	8	82
Pavlodar	25	11	21	17	5	79

← all games of the day

Kaspiy Aktau vs Pavlodar Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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