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Minas vs Pato Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 21 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 75-67
17-27 23-18 17-4 18-18
Position#3
Record18-4
FormWLLWW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game79.1
Minas 🏆
Brazil
vs
Position#17
Record5-17
FormLLLLL
Points / game73.1
Allowed / game81.8
BrazilNBB· Arena Minas Tenis Clube
Other2025-26
Meetings · Minas v Pato
27 Oct 2026
MINA86
PATO65
21 Jan 2026
MINA75
PATO67
05 Dec 2024
MINA97
PATO70
22 Dec 2023
MINA84
PATO75
31 Mar 2023
MINA82
PATO90
05 Nov 2021
MINA79
PATO67
12 Nov 2020
MINA76
PATO54
15 Jan 2020
MINA86
PATO76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Botafogo
#16
W
95-88
95
88
+7
93avg 75
H18/12
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
71-59
71
59
+12
70avg 75
H21/12
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
85-87
85
87
-2
83avg 75
H23/12
NBB
Cearense
#19
W
99-81
99
81
+18
94avg 75
A27/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
107-102 OT
107
102
+5
108avg 75
A29/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
W
92-74
92
74
+18
81avg 75
A08/01
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
76-90
76
90
-14
64avg 75
A10/01
NBB
Boca Juniors
#2
L
77-92
77
92
-15
no box
A15/01
Champions League Americas
Aguada
#11
W
95-75
95
75
+20
no box
H16/01
Champions League Americas
Sao Jose
#9
W
95-91
95
91
+4
no box
A19/01
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-23
24-17
14-22
29-26
19-15
25-11
19-19
8-14
24-24
21-26
24-15
16-22
24-18
16-28
33-18
26-17
12-24
31-26
22-24
26-17
18-29
23-17
36-18
15-10
24-34
19-14
16-25
17-17
13-21
23-25
18-27
23-19
24-21
28-15
21-19
22-20
28-27
29-17
17-21
21-26
173.1Avg total
89.2Scored
83.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)87.079.1166.2+7.982%
Season at home (11)85.377.7163.0+7.582%
Season away (11)88.880.5169.4+8.382%
Last 10 (10)89.283.9173.1+5.370%
Last 5 (5)87.084.4171.4+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)81.074.3155.3+6.767%
vs Similar (12)79.879.6159.3+0.242%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)89.179.5168.7+9.6100%
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Paulistano
#7
W
67-59
67
59
+8
55avg 67
H06/12
NBB
Rio Claro
#15
W
109-101 OT
109
101
+8
103avg 67
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#10
L
61-69
61
69
-8
59avg 67
H15/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
71-93
71
93
-22
57avg 67
H18/12
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
82-67
82
67
+15
77avg 67
H20/12
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
69-84
69
84
-15
61avg 67
A23/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
67-94
67
94
-27
64avg 67
H29/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
85-91 OT
85
91
-6
78avg 67
H09/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
72-80
72
80
-8
63avg 67
H12/01
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
81-89
81
89
-8
78avg 67
A19/01
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-12
18-17
18-18
11-12
19-22
23-18
25-15
14-26
13-15
15-16
15-17
18-21
19-26
18-24
11-16
23-27
21-20
19-15
22-15
20-17
18-20
18-20
8-19
25-25
18-27
15-25
16-21
18-21
15-26
24-17
15-14
16-13
19-22
17-19
19-22
17-17
20-27
19-26
25-17
17-19
159.1Avg total
76.4Scored
82.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)73.181.8154.9-8.723%
Season at home (11)72.177.8149.9-5.727%
Season away (11)74.185.7159.8-11.618%
Last 10 (10)76.482.7159.1-6.330%
Last 5 (5)74.887.6162.4-12.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)70.883.8154.7-13.05%
vs Similar (9)80.777.3158.0+3.367%
vs Weaker (1)76.090.0166.0-14.00%
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -1.9-1.9
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -2.2-2.2Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: +4.3+4.3Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -1.9-1.9
MinasPato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Botafogo
#16
W
52-40
52
40
+12
H18/12
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
44-26
44
26
+18
H21/12
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
45-50
45
50
-5
H23/12
NBB
Cearense
#19
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A27/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A29/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A08/01
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A10/01
NBB
Boca Juniors
#2
L
36-46
36
46
-10
A15/01
Champions League Americas
Aguada
#11
W
52-36
52
36
+16
H16/01
Champions League Americas
Sao Jose
#9
W
57-44
57
44
+13
A19/01
NBB
88.5Avg total
45.3Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.340.382.6+2.050%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.639.382.9+4.464%-
Last 30 away (16)41.141.282.3-0.138%-
Last 10 (10)45.343.288.5+2.140%-
Last 5 (5)45.844.089.8+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.340.076.3-3.733%-
vs Similar (12)41.142.883.8-1.733%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)44.538.482.9+6.167%-
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Paulistano
#7
W
38-29
38
29
+9
H06/12
NBB
Rio Claro
#15
W
42-40
42
40
+2
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#10
L
28-31
28
31
-3
H15/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
37-50
37
50
-13
H18/12
NBB
Osasco
#18
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H20/12
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A23/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
33-52
33
52
-19
H29/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H09/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H12/01
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A19/01
NBB
78.2Avg total
36.8Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.542.278.7-5.727%-
Last 30 at home (14)36.639.476.1-2.836%-
Last 30 away (16)36.444.781.1-8.319%-
Last 10 (10)36.841.478.2-4.630%-
Last 5 (5)36.645.882.4-9.20%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)35.541.877.3-6.220%-
vs Similar (9)38.841.980.7-3.144%-
vs Weaker (1)35.054.089.0-19.00%-
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 83.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.219.3
53.3%
52.2%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.79.6
33.4%
32.5%28.8
🏀 Free throws23.416.4
70.1%
72.8%16.4
They take 64.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 76.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.217.8
52.0%
52.2%35.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.39.1
31.1%
32.5%27.3
🏀 Free throws19.213.4
69.8%
72.8%13.4
They take 63.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minas
WWLLWWWLWW
Pato
LLLLLWLLWW
#3
League position
#17
+6.7
Net rating
-6.4
104.5
Offensive rating
95.6
97.8
Defensive rating
102.0
51.9%
Effective FG%
49.5%
48.1%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
15.9%
Turnover %
20.3%
30.8%
Off. rebound %
29.6%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.30
33.4%
3-point %
31.1%
65.1%
Assist %
61.0%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence104.5 · 95.6Defence97.8 · 102.0Shooting51.9% · 49.5%3-point %33.4% · 31.1%Ball care15.9% · 20.3%Off. rebounds30.8% · 29.6%Free throws0.36 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ Minas   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Minas wins
1
Pato wins
DateGameScore
27/10/25Pato v Minas75-76
03/04/25Pato v Minas72-75
05/12/24Minas v Pato97-70
05/04/24Pato v Minas69-77
22/12/23Minas v Pato84-75
31/03/23Minas v Pato82-90
21/12/22Pato v Minas74-88
06/02/22Pato v Minas70-101
05/11/21Minas v Pato79-67
14/02/21Pato v Minas67-83
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/01/26ASao Jose95-91
16/01/26HAguada95-75
15/01/26ABoca Juniors77-92
10/01/26AMogi76-90
08/01/26ACorinthians Paulista92-74
29/12/25AUnifacisa107-102 OT
27/12/25ACearense99-81
23/12/25HFlamengo85-87
21/12/25HVasco71-59
18/12/25HBotafogo95-88
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/01/26ACruzeiro81-89
12/01/26HUniao Corinthians72-80
09/01/26HCaxias do Sul85-91 OT
29/12/25HPinheiros67-94
23/12/25ABrasilia69-84
20/12/25HOsasco82-67
18/12/25HFranca71-93
15/12/25HBauru61-69
09/12/25ARio Claro109-101 OT
06/12/25HPaulistano67-59

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minas
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW82%
HomeLWWWL82%
AwayWWWLW82%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %82%82%82%
Points / game87.085.388.8
Allowed / game79.177.780.5
Point differential+7.9+7.5+8.3
Avg total166.2163.0169.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%27%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won70% (10)60% (5)80% (5)
Overtime %9%9%9%
Pato
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL23%
HomeLWLLL27%
AwayLLWLL18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %23%27%18%
Points / game73.172.174.1
Allowed / game81.877.885.7
Point differential-8.7-5.7-11.6
Avg total154.9149.9159.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%9%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %9%9%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo2219386%89.376.0+13.3
2 Franca2218482%88.574.7+13.9
3 Pinheiros2218482%88.075.7+12.3
4 Minas2218482%87.079.1+7.9
5 Brasilia2317674%81.872.2+9.6
6 Corinthians Paulista2416867%82.777.6+5.1
7 Sao Jose2214864%82.578.9+3.6
8 Paulistano2213959%80.676.6+4.0
9 Mogi2112957%76.368.9+7.5
10 Unifacisa23131057%81.279.8+1.3
11 Uniao Corinthians21111052%79.581.2-1.7
12 Bauru23121152%76.376.9-0.5
13 Caxias do Sul22101245%72.577.0-4.5
14 Cruzeiro2271532%79.285.6-6.4
15 Pato2251723%73.181.8-8.7
16 Rio Claro2251723%75.587.7-12.2
17 Cearense2351822%77.587.2-9.7
18 Osasco2341917%75.187.2-12.1
19 Botafogo2231914%71.583.0-11.5
20 Vasco2332013%68.879.1-10.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minas1723171875
Pato271841867
← all games of the day
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