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Pato vs Minas Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 03 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 72-75
15-21 17-12 20-17 20-25
Position#14
Record12-18
FormLLWWW
Points / game82.2
Allowed / game83.9
Pato
Brazil
vs
Minas 🏆
Brazil
Position#1
Record25-4
FormLWWWW
Points / game82.9
Allowed / game71.5
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Sesi
Other2024-25
Meetings · Pato v Minas
27 Oct 2025
PATO75
MINA76
03 Apr 2025
PATO72
MINA75
05 Apr 2024
PATO69
MINA77
21 Dec 2022
PATO74
MINA88
06 Feb 2022
PATO70
MINA101
14 Feb 2021
PATO67
MINA83
24 Oct 2019
PATO62
MINA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
L
76-80
76
80
-4
68avg 75
A13/01
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
78-65
78
65
+13
70avg 75
H20/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
81-74
81
74
+7
70avg 75
H22/01
NBB
Bauru
#4
L
91-94
91
94
-3
87avg 75
H05/02
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
86-98
86
98
-12
70avg 75
A14/02
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
76-91
76
91
-15
73avg 75
A16/02
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
81-91
81
91
-10
67avg 75
A28/02
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
98-80
98
80
+18
124avg 75
H14/03
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
94-77
94
77
+17
97avg 75
A26/03
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
W
69-65
69
65
+4
62avg 75
A28/03
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-17
19-29
16-23
10-11
16-20
21-15
16-17
25-13
24-19
17-22
19-15
21-18
15-18
26-23
19-27
31-26
19-18
24-29
21-29
22-22
29-26
27-24
13-19
7-22
12-19
22-27
22-25
25-20
25-15
22-24
28-19
23-22
26-14
20-23
23-20
25-20
19-19
23-17
16-19
11-10
164.5Avg total
83.0Scored
81.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)82.283.9166.1-1.640%
Season at home (15)85.882.2168.0+3.660%
Season away (15)78.785.5164.2-6.920%
Last 10 (10)83.081.5164.5+1.550%
Last 5 (5)83.680.8164.4+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)83.994.1178.0-10.212%
vs Similar (17)80.878.9159.8+1.953%
vs Weaker (5)84.484.2168.6+0.240%
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MinasBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMinas
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#5
W
70-59
70
59
+11
71avg 77
H15/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
W
92-86
92
86
+6
84avg 77
A28/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
W
79-77
79
77
+2
69avg 77
A03/03
NBB
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
L
60-67
60
67
-7
47avg 77
A08/03
Champions League Americas
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
W
79-70
79
70
+9
70avg 77
H12/03
Champions League Americas
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
L
74-79
74
79
-5
66avg 77
H13/03
Champions League Americas
Flamengo
#3
W
94-70
94
70
+24
94avg 77
H19/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
88-70
88
70
+18
88avg 77
H26/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
92-81
92
81
+11
93avg 77
H29/03
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
77-63
77
63
+14
72avg 77
A01/04
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-13
13-21
18-12
20-13
16-21
23-18
27-21
26-26
22-29
16-13
25-14
16-21
17-17
16-20
19-14
8-16
28-23
11-16
20-14
20-17
21-32
19-10
10-23
24-14
27-23
20-15
22-21
25-11
28-17
22-18
18-17
20-18
24-23
22-17
27-20
19-21
20-25
29-13
11-9
17-16
152.7Avg total
80.5Scored
72.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)82.971.5154.4+11.486%
Season at home (15)84.169.6153.7+14.593%
Season away (14)81.673.6155.2+8.179%
Last 10 (10)80.572.2152.7+8.380%
Last 5 (5)85.072.6157.6+12.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)61.064.0125.0-3.00%
vs Similar (4)82.067.8149.8+14.2100%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)80.572.8153.3+7.779%
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.2+2.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -1.2-1.2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: +3.2+3.2Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: +2.2+2.2
PatoMinas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cearense
#17
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A13/01
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H20/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H22/01
NBB
Bauru
#4
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H05/02
NBB
Vasco
#7
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A14/02
NBB
Botafogo
#18
W
56-50
56
50
+6
A16/02
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A28/02
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H14/03
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
46-37
46
37
+9
A26/03
NBB
Sao Paulo
#13
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A28/03
NBB
85.5Avg total
43.7Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.040.782.7+1.360%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.739.581.1+2.260%-
Last 30 away (15)42.441.984.3+0.560%-
Last 10 (10)43.741.885.5+1.960%-
Last 5 (5)45.041.686.6+3.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)41.845.487.1-3.638%-
vs Similar (17)41.038.479.4+2.665%-
vs Weaker (5)46.041.287.2+4.880%-
This opponent (Minas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
MinasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#5
L
32-34
32
34
-2
H15/02
NBB
Cearense
#17
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A28/02
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A03/03
NBB
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
L
33-37
33
37
-4
A08/03
Champions League Americas
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H12/03
Champions League Americas
Instituto de Cordoba
#6
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H13/03
Champions League Americas
Flamengo
#3
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H19/03
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
50-35
50
35
+15
H26/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H29/03
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
49-38
49
38
+11
A01/04
NBB
79.7Avg total
41.3Scored
38.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.337.277.5+3.157%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.037.278.2+3.861%-
Last 30 away (12)39.237.176.3+2.250%-
Last 10 (10)41.338.479.7+2.940%-
Last 5 (5)46.438.685.0+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)30.025.055.0+5.0100%-
vs Similar (4)42.233.275.5+9.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)40.638.378.9+2.350%-
This opponent (Pato) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 82.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.518.6
51.0%
50.9%37.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.711.3
35.6%
33.0%33.9
🏀 Free throws14.611.0
75.3%
72.7%11.0
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minas: 79.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.7 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.718.7
52.4%
50.9%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.410.2
34.7%
33.0%30.6
🏀 Free throws16.811.7
69.6%
72.7%11.7
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pato
WWWLLLLWWL
Minas
WWWWLWLWWW
#14
League position
#1
+1.9
Net rating
+12.2
112.5
Offensive rating
111.8
110.6
Defensive rating
99.6
52.1%
Effective FG%
52.2%
53.3%
Opp. effective FG%
48.3%
17.0%
Turnover %
17.1%
36.0%
Off. rebound %
35.8%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.26
35.6%
3-point %
34.7%
63.2%
Assist %
61.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence112.5 · 111.8Defence110.6 · 99.6Shooting52.1% · 52.2%3-point %35.6% · 34.7%Ball care17.0% · 17.1%Off. rebounds36.0% · 35.8%Free throws0.21 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Pato   ■ Minas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pato wins
9
Minas wins
DateGameScore
05/12/24Minas v Pato97-70
05/04/24Pato v Minas69-77
22/12/23Minas v Pato84-75
31/03/23Minas v Pato82-90
21/12/22Pato v Minas74-88
06/02/22Pato v Minas70-101
05/11/21Minas v Pato79-67
14/02/21Pato v Minas67-83
12/11/20Minas v Pato76-54
15/01/20Minas v Pato86-76
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/03/25ASao Paulo69-65
26/03/25APaulistano94-77
14/03/25HBrasilia98-80
28/02/25AFlamengo81-91
16/02/25ABotafogo76-91
14/02/25AVasco86-98
05/02/25HBauru91-94
22/01/25HUniao Corinthians81-74
20/01/25HCaxias do Sul78-65
13/01/25ACearense76-80
Minaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/04/25ABrasilia77-63
29/03/25HUniao Corinthians92-81
26/03/25HCaxias do Sul88-70
19/03/25HFlamengo94-70
13/03/25HInstituto de Cordoba74-79
12/03/25HInstituto de Cordoba79-70
08/03/25AInstituto de Cordoba60-67
03/03/25AUnifacisa79-77
28/02/25ACearense92-86
15/02/25HPinheiros70-59

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pato
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW40%
HomeLWWLW60%
AwayLLLWW20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %40%60%20%
Points / game82.285.878.7
Allowed / game83.982.285.5
Point differential-1.6+3.6-6.9
Avg total166.1168.0164.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%27%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (10)75% (4)33% (6)
Overtime %3%7%0%
Minas
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW86%
HomeLWWWW93%
AwayLWWWW79%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291514
Win %86%93%79%
Points / game82.984.181.6
Allowed / game71.569.673.6
Point differential+11.4+14.5+8.1
Avg total154.4153.7155.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+66%73%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (2)100% (2)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas2925486%82.971.5+11.4
2 Flamengo2922776%84.075.1+8.9
3 Franca3021970%84.476.2+8.2
4 Brasilia30191163%81.879.9+2.0
5 Vasco30171357%77.275.6+1.6
6 Bauru30171357%78.278.6-0.4
7 Uniao Corinthians29161355%78.579.1-0.6
8 Pinheiros30161453%76.675.5+1.1
9 Sao Jose31161552%78.378.0+0.4
10 Unifacisa31151648%75.275.3-0.1
11 Corinthians Paulista30141647%80.479.2+1.2
12 Paulistano30131743%78.377.1+1.2
13 Pato30121840%82.283.9-1.6
14 Sao Paulo30111937%75.579.1-3.6
15 Caxias do Sul30102033%73.780.7-7.1
16 Mogi31102132%73.880.8-7.0
17 Botafogo2982128%73.481.3-7.9
18 Cearense3182326%71.678.4-6.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pato1517202072
Minas2112172575
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