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Missouri State vs Valparaiso Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 02 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 72-73
34-35 38-38
Position#334
Record7-6
FormLLWWL
Points / game72.3
Allowed / game70.7
vs
Position#248
Record7-6
FormWLWWL
Points / game80.0
Allowed / game72.4
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Missouri State v Valparaiso
01 Jan 2025
MISS72
VALP73
17 Feb 2024
MISS82
VALP74
01 Feb 2023
MISS76
VALP67
04 Mar 2022
MISS67
VALP58
12 Feb 2022
MISS84
VALP66
05 Mar 2021
MISS66
VALP55
07 Mar 2020
MISS82
VALP89
23 Jan 2020
MISS67
VALP60
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Missouri State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Valparaiso winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Missouri StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#277
W
78-68
78
68
+10
H20/11
NCAA
High Point
#13
W
71-61
71
61
+10
A24/11
NCAA
Boston College
#298
L
74-76 OT
74
76
-2
A26/11
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#108
L
55-75
55
75
-20
H26/11
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#343
W
72-67
72
67
+5
A01/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
L
77-80
77
80
-3
H08/12
NCAA
Washington State
#148
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A14/12
NCAA
Lincoln Mo.
#381
W
61-49
61
49
+12
H19/12
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#115
W
68-56
68
56
+12
H22/12
NCAA
Evansville
#319
L
40-57
40
57
-17
A29/12
NCAA
1H
2H
34-37
44-31
35-30
36-31
26-29
38-35
24-36
31-39
33-42
39-25
40-36
37-44
27-34
51-57
23-24
38-25
31-25
37-31
20-23
20-34
135.4Avg total
67.4Scored
68.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)72.370.7143.0+1.654%
Season at home (7)77.170.7147.9+6.471%
Season away (6)66.770.7137.3-4.033%
Last 10 (10)67.468.0135.4-0.650%
Last 5 (5)64.866.6131.4-1.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)67.974.3142.2-6.444%
vs Similar ◀ (17)72.673.3145.9-0.741%
vs Weaker (2)81.572.0153.5+9.5100%
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lindenwood
#217
W
77-64
77
64
+13
H22/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#295
W
81-53
81
53
+28
H24/11
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
W
87-82
87
82
+5
H27/11
NCAA
DePaul
#269
L
70-89
70
89
-19
A29/11
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
60-66
60
66
-6
H06/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
W
93-77
93
77
+16
H14/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#172
L
73-95
73
95
-22
A18/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
W
76-73
76
73
+3
A20/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#539
W
107-57
107
57
+50
H22/12
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
75-81 OT
75
81
-6
A29/12
NCAA
1H
2H
39-32
38-32
35-29
46-24
41-39
46-43
29-42
41-47
26-35
34-31
36-31
57-46
30-41
43-54
26-42
50-31
47-29
60-28
30-36
33-27
153.6Avg total
79.9Scored
73.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)80.072.4152.4+7.654%
Season at home (8)85.465.0150.4+20.475%
Season away (5)71.484.2155.6-12.820%
Last 10 (10)79.973.7153.6+6.260%
Last 5 (5)84.876.6161.4+8.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)68.078.9147.0-10.914%
vs Similar ◀ (4)80.270.8151.0+9.575%
vs Weaker (3)90.070.7160.7+19.3100%
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: -2.3-2.31st half: -1.7-1.72nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: +8.5+8.5
-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: -2.3-2.31st half: -1.7-1.72nd half2nd half: +1.9+1.92nd half: +8.5+8.5
Missouri StateValparaiso
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Missouri StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#277
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H20/11
NCAA
High Point
#13
W
35-30
35
30
+5
A24/11
NCAA
Boston College
#298
L
26-29
26
29
-3
A26/11
NCAA
South Dakota St.
#108
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H26/11
NCAA
Oral Roberts
#343
L
33-42
33
42
-9
A01/12
NCAA
Indiana State
#254
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H08/12
NCAA
Washington State
#148
L
27-34
27
34
-7
A14/12
NCAA
Lincoln Mo.
#381
L
23-24
23
24
-1
H19/12
NCAA
UC Santa Barbara
#115
W
31-25
31
25
+6
H22/12
NCAA
Evansville
#319
L
20-23
20
23
-3
A29/12
NCAA
60.9Avg total
29.3Scored
31.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)32.634.266.8-1.643%-
Last 30 at home (14)33.134.367.4-1.243%-
Last 30 away (16)32.234.266.4-2.044%-
Last 10 (10)29.331.660.9-2.330%-
Last 5 (5)28.228.456.6-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)30.435.766.1-5.233%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)32.933.866.8-0.947%-
vs Weaker (2)39.039.078.0+0.050%-
This opponent (Valparaiso) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
ValparaisoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lindenwood
#217
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H22/11
NCAA
Eastern Illinois
#295
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H24/11
NCAA
Northern Illinois
#352
W
41-39
41
39
+2
H27/11
NCAA
DePaul
#269
L
29-42
29
42
-13
A29/11
NCAA
Drake
#8
L
26-35
26
35
-9
H06/12
NCAA
Central Michigan
#242
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H14/12
NCAA
Ohio State
#172
L
30-41
30
41
-11
A18/12
NCAA
Western Michigan
#305
L
26-42
26
42
-16
A20/12
NCAA
Calumet College
#539
W
47-29
47
29
+18
H22/12
NCAA
Bradley
#30
L
30-36
30
36
-6
A29/12
NCAA
69.5Avg total
33.9Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.036.870.8-2.843%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.235.171.3+1.156%-
Last 30 away (14)31.538.870.3-7.329%-
Last 10 (10)33.935.669.5-1.750%-
Last 5 (5)33.835.869.6-2.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (22)32.038.370.3-6.332%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)34.833.568.2+1.275%-
vs Weaker (3)38.036.774.7+1.367%-
This opponent (Missouri State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Missouri State wins
1
Valparaiso wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/24AEvansville40-57
22/12/24HUC Santa Barbara68-56
19/12/24HLincoln Mo.61-49
14/12/24AWashington State78-91
08/12/24HIndiana State77-80
01/12/24AOral Roberts72-67
26/11/24HSouth Dakota St.55-75
26/11/24ABoston College74-76 OT
24/11/24AHigh Point71-61
20/11/24HUT Arlington78-68
Valparaisolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/24ABradley75-81 OT
22/12/24HCalumet College107-57
20/12/24AWestern Michigan76-73
18/12/24AOhio State73-95
14/12/24HCentral Michigan93-77
06/12/24HDrake60-66
29/11/24ADePaul70-89
27/11/24HNorthern Illinois87-82
24/11/24HEastern Illinois81-53
22/11/24HLindenwood77-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Missouri State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL54%
HomeWLLWW71%
AwayWLWLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1376
Win %54%71%33%
Points / game72.377.166.7
Allowed / game70.770.770.7
Point differential+1.6+6.4-4.0
Avg total143.0147.9137.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%57%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %15%14%17%
Valparaiso
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL54%
HomeWWLWW75%
AwayLLLWL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %54%75%20%
Points / game80.085.471.4
Allowed / game72.465.084.2
Point differential+7.6+20.4-12.8
Avg total152.4150.4155.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%62%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %8%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Conference USA conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Liberty1312192%81.458.2+23.2
2 Louisiana Tech1311285%80.567.0+13.5
3 UTEP1310377%74.565.9+8.5
4 Middle Tenn. St.139469%79.571.1+8.5
5 Western Kentucky139469%80.676.2+4.5
6 Jacksonville State138562%81.569.7+11.8
7 Kennesaw State138562%81.174.8+6.2
8 New Mexico State137654%74.570.3+4.2
9 Sam Houston St.137654%81.278.2+2.9
10 Missouri State137654%72.370.7+1.6
11 Delaware137654%78.076.5+1.5
12 Florida International136746%74.270.2+4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
Missouri Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Drake1312192%73.557.6+15.8
2 Bradley1412286%82.569.0+13.5
3 Illinois (Chi.)1410471%80.372.8+7.5
4 Belmont139469%81.277.8+3.3
5 Northern Iowa138562%78.066.4+11.6
6 Illinois State138562%79.172.3+6.8
7 Indiana State148657%84.677.7+6.9
8 Murray State137654%76.869.1+7.7
9 Valparaiso137654%80.072.4+7.6
10 Southern Illinois145936%72.374.6-2.4
11 Evansville145936%65.170.4-5.2
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Missouri State343872
Valparaiso353873
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