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Varese vs Tortona Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 97-87
21-28 28-21 22-23 26-15
Position#8
Record10-13
FormLWWWL
Points / game83.0
Allowed / game87.0
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Position#6
Record15-7
FormLWWWW
Points / game88.5
Allowed / game85.7
ItalyLega ARound 24· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Varese v Tortona
10 Jan 2027
VAR v TOR
upcoming
28 Mar 2026
VAR97
TOR87
06 Oct 2024
VAR95
TOR105
15 Oct 2023
VAR78
TOR80
02 Jan 2023
VAR88
TOR89
20 Nov 2021
VAR85
TOR76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Tortona winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Basket Napoli
#11
W
84-80
84
80
+4
74avg 74
H03/01
Lega A
Treviso
#14
L
83-86
83
86
-3
70avg 74
A11/01
Lega A
Venezia
#5
L
94-106
94
106
-12
no box
H18/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
W
84-74
84
74
+10
80avg 74
A26/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
61-76
61
76
-15
53avg 74
H01/02
Lega A
Trento
#9
L
78-84
78
84
-6
72avg 74
A08/02
Lega A
Brescia
#4
W
98-96
98
96
+2
90avg 74
H14/02
Lega A
Udine
#13
W
92-81
92
81
+11
85avg 74
A08/03
Lega A
Treviso
#14
W
91-86
91
86
+5
84avg 74
H15/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#11
L
75-104
75
104
-29
57avg 74
A22/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-18
18-24
24-18
22-20
13-18
18-22
29-17
23-29
25-31
34-18
18-35
17-22
15-19
21-24
27-19
21-12
10-24
16-11
14-20
21-21
18-23
17-15
18-24
25-22
22-34
19-21
31-23
26-18
28-21
18-21
21-15
25-24
21-22
30-22
19-23
21-19
13-25
6-22
25-26
31-31
171.3Avg total
84.0Scored
87.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)83.087.0170.0-4.143%
Season at home (11)79.583.9163.4-4.545%
Season away (12)86.289.9176.1-3.842%
Last 10 (10)84.087.3171.3-3.350%
Last 5 (5)86.890.2177.0-3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)80.789.9170.6-9.333%
vs Similar (15)85.384.0169.3+1.360%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tortona) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TortonaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTortona
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#7
W
81-67
81
67
+14
79avg 80
H28/12
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
85-79
85
79
+6
87avg 80
A04/01
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
86-92
86
92
-6
76avg 80
A11/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
78-87
78
87
-9
no box
H17/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#11
W
82-76
82
76
+6
69avg 80
A24/01
Lega A
Udine
#13
L
79-80
79
80
-1
71avg 80
H31/01
Lega A
Trieste
#10
W
104-99
104
99
+5
96avg 80
H08/02
Lega A
Sassari
#16
W
89-82
89
82
+7
87avg 80
A15/02
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
85-78
85
78
+7
78avg 80
H08/03
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
100-73
100
73
+27
98avg 80
H22/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-17
22-14
23-19
22-17
19-27
27-17
16-18
23-17
23-24
23-18
17-24
23-26
27-25
23-24
11-22
17-16
17-21
28-15
19-20
18-20
18-16
23-18
19-26
19-20
19-23
22-32
39-24
24-20
23-17
19-16
22-27
25-22
21-15
20-23
18-18
26-22
27-22
28-16
18-17
27-18
168.2Avg total
86.9Scored
81.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)88.585.7174.2+2.768%
Season at home (12)93.987.8181.7+6.275%
Season away (10)81.983.3165.2-1.460%
Last 10 (10)86.981.3168.2+5.670%
Last 5 (5)91.482.4173.8+9.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)77.386.6163.9-9.314%
vs Similar (9)86.986.3173.2+0.644%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)92.187.2179.3+4.979%
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -5.0-5.0Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: +4.2+4.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +2.6+2.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -5.0-5.0Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: +4.2+4.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +2.6+2.6
VareseTortona
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Basket Napoli
#11
L
38-42
38
42
-4
H03/01
Lega A
Treviso
#14
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A11/01
Lega A
Venezia
#5
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H18/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A26/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
26-35
26
35
-9
H01/02
Lega A
Trento
#9
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A08/02
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
41-55
41
55
-14
H14/02
Lega A
Udine
#13
W
46-42
46
42
+4
A08/03
Lega A
Treviso
#14
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H15/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#11
L
19-47
19
47
-28
A22/03
Lega A
81.7Avg total
38.2Scored
43.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.742.181.8-2.440%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.040.079.0-1.047%-
Last 30 away (15)40.444.384.7-3.933%-
Last 10 (10)38.243.581.7-5.330%-
Last 5 (5)38.445.283.6-6.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)40.744.385.0-3.733%-
vs Similar (15)38.739.978.7-1.247%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Tortona) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TortonaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#7
W
36-31
36
31
+5
H28/12
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
46-44
46
44
+2
A04/01
Lega A
Brescia
#4
W
46-42
46
42
+4
A11/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#2
W
50-49
50
49
+1
H17/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#11
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A24/01
Lega A
Udine
#13
W
41-34
41
34
+7
H31/01
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
41-55
41
55
-14
H08/02
Lega A
Sassari
#16
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A15/02
Lega A
Cremona
#12
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H08/03
Lega A
Cantu
#15
W
55-38
55
38
+17
H22/03
Lega A
84.3Avg total
44.3Scored
40.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.842.386.0+1.567%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.642.887.4+1.969%-
Last 30 away (14)42.841.784.5+1.164%-
Last 10 (10)44.340.084.3+4.390%-
Last 5 (5)44.039.683.6+4.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)42.044.086.0-2.057%-
vs Similar (9)42.942.985.8+0.056%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)45.241.086.2+4.279%-
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 83.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.6 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.719.7
58.5%
54.1%39.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.210.3
32.0%
34.6%30.9
🏀 Free throws18.313.6
74.3%
76.1%13.6
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 49% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Tortonatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tortona: 86.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.6 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.621.7
53.4%
54.1%43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.39.5
36.1%
34.6%28.5
🏀 Free throws18.914.4
76.2%
76.1%14.4
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWWWLLWLLW
Tortona
WWWWLWLLWW
#8
League position
#6
-1.7
Net rating
+8.3
97.6
Offensive rating
105.0
99.4
Defensive rating
96.7
53.3%
Effective FG%
53.7%
52.7%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
15.6%
Turnover %
12.5%
36.0%
Off. rebound %
27.8%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.28
32.0%
3-point %
36.1%
64.0%
Assist %
57.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence97.6 · 105.0Defence99.4 · 96.7Shooting53.3% · 53.7%3-point %32.0% · 36.1%Ball care15.6% · 12.5%Off. rebounds36.0% · 27.8%Free throws0.28 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Varese   ■ Tortona
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Varese wins
8
Tortona wins
DateGameScore
09/11/25Tortona v Varese90-87
09/03/25Tortona v Varese89-82 OT
06/10/24Varese v Tortona95-105
24/03/24Tortona v Varese90-83
15/10/23Varese v Tortona78-80
05/02/23Tortona v Varese103-91
02/01/23Varese v Tortona88-89
16/04/22Tortona v Varese104-99
20/11/21Varese v Tortona85-76
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/26ABasket Napoli75-104
15/03/26HTreviso91-86
08/03/26AUdine92-81
14/02/26HBrescia98-96
08/02/26ATrento78-84
01/02/26HReggiana61-76
26/01/26AOlimpia Milano84-74
18/01/26HVenezia94-106
11/01/26ATreviso83-86
03/01/26HBasket Napoli84-80
Tortonalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/26HCantu100-73
08/03/26HCremona85-78
15/02/26ASassari89-82
08/02/26HTrieste104-99
31/01/26HUdine79-80
24/01/26ABasket Napoli82-76
17/01/26HOlimpia Milano78-87
11/01/26ABrescia86-92
04/01/26ACantu85-79
28/12/25HReggiana81-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL43%
HomeWLLWW45%
AwayLWLWL42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231112
Win %43%45%42%
Points / game83.079.586.2
Allowed / game87.083.989.9
Point differential-4.1-4.5-3.8
Avg total170.0163.4176.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%9%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)100% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Tortona
Lega A 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW68%
HomeLLWWW75%
AwayWWLWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221210
Win %68%75%60%
Points / game88.593.981.9
Allowed / game85.787.883.3
Point differential+2.7+6.2-1.4
Avg total174.2181.7165.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (7)75% (4)100% (3)
Overtime %5%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna2319483%83.375.6+7.7
2 Brescia2217577%88.183.1+5.0
3 Venezia2216673%91.385.4+5.9
4 Olimpia Milano2316770%85.979.4+6.5
5 Tortona2215768%88.585.7+2.7
6 Trapani1510567%78.877.9+0.9
7 Trieste22111150%84.287.1-3.0
8 Reggiana22101245%82.080.6+1.3
9 Trento23101343%82.581.5+1.0
10 Varese23101343%83.087.0-4.1
11 Udine2281436%82.183.1-1.0
12 Basket Napoli2281436%83.886.4-2.6
13 Sassari2381535%86.189.1-3.0
14 Cremona2381535%82.385.4-3.1
15 Cantu2361726%83.589.3-5.7
16 Treviso2241818%82.090.2-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese2128222697
Tortona2821231587
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