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Cearense vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 13 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 14:00
Final 75-81
20-18 16-25 22-20 17-18
Position#8
Record10-8
FormLLWWL
Points / game78.1
Allowed / game75.8
vs
Position#11
Record8-13
FormWLLLL
Points / game77.2
Allowed / game81.1
BrazilNBB· Centro de Formacao Olimpica
Other2023-24
Meetings · Cearense v Sao Paulo
14 Nov 2024
CEAR79
SAO 80
13 Jan 2024
CEAR75
SAO 81
08 Dec 2022
CEAR81
SAO 111
04 Nov 2021
CEAR68
SAO 81
23 Dec 2020
CEAR92
SAO 85
17 Mar 2020
CEAR v SAO
upcoming
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cearense winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Pato
#12
W
76-75
76
75
+1
73avg 72
A29/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
88-93 OT
88
93
-5
no box
A01/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
L
74-78
74
78
-4
64avg 72
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
62-63
62
63
-1
56avg 72
H08/12
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
86-90
86
90
-4
80avg 72
A18/12
NBB
Flamengo
#2
L
74-77
74
77
-3
70avg 72
A22/12
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
75-81
75
81
-6
67avg 72
A23/12
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
87-76
87
76
+11
86avg 72
H27/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
83-73
83
73
+10
83avg 72
H29/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
72-77
72
77
-5
64avg 72
H03/01
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-15
19-16
20-17
20-27
9-25
17-19
26-17
30-21
24-21
18-21
16-20
16-16
17-23
15-9
15-17
15-14
24-26
15-21
26-20
21-23
23-13
20-27
13-14
18-23
21-21
22-24
16-16
16-20
25-12
15-19
24-20
23-25
18-15
20-18
20-21
25-19
22-29
21-22
12-15
17-11
156.0Avg total
77.7Scored
78.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)78.175.8153.9+2.256%
Season at home (9)77.873.1150.9+4.767%
Season away (9)78.378.6156.9-0.244%
Last 10 (10)77.778.3156.0-0.630%
Last 5 (5)78.276.8155.0+1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)76.584.5161.0-7.923%
vs Similar ◀ (10)78.977.2156.1+1.770%
vs Weaker (7)77.775.3153.0+2.457%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Vasco
#4
L
70-75
70
75
-5
57avg 68
H09/12
NBB
Quimsa
#3
L
65-112
65
112
-47
46avg 68
A16/12
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
L
84-89 OT
84
89
-5
67avg 68
H17/12
Champions League Americas
Cerrado
#17
L
74-82
74
82
-8
66avg 68
A21/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
72-63
72
63
+9
66avg 68
A23/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
W
78-74
78
74
+4
73avg 68
H27/12
NBB
Mogi
#14
L
61-63
61
63
-2
52avg 68
H29/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
89-93 OT
89
93
-4
no box
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
84-98
84
98
-14
73avg 68
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
84-107
84
107
-23
79avg 68
A11/01
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-24
9-22
21-15
20-14
12-24
24-24
10-39
19-25
8-17
23-26
24-21
21-12
16-19
18-25
17-21
23-17
13-17
15-20
28-12
16-14
20-30
21-16
20-16
17-12
16-9
16-19
15-16
14-19
21-23
17-24
33-21
13-16
21-24
26-25
15-22
22-27
13-24
26-29
23-31
22-23
161.7Avg total
76.1Scored
85.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)77.281.1158.4-3.938%
Season at home (11)78.080.5158.5-2.536%
Season away (10)76.481.9158.3-5.540%
Last 10 (10)76.185.6161.7-9.520%
Last 5 (5)79.287.0166.2-7.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)80.588.7169.3-8.233%
vs Similar ◀ (10)77.980.9158.8-3.030%
vs Weaker (5)75.271.2146.4+4.080%
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -5.1-5.1Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +0.8+0.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: -5.1-5.1Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +0.8+0.8
CearenseSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pato
#12
W
36-31
36
31
+5
A29/11
NBB
Minas
#3
L
26-44
26
44
-18
A01/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
D
42-42
42
42
+0
H06/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H08/12
NBB
Botafogo
#15
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A18/12
NBB
Flamengo
#2
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A22/12
NBB
Vasco
#4
L
43-45
43
45
-2
A23/12
NBB
Cerrado
#17
W
40-31
40
31
+9
H27/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
38-33
38
33
+5
H29/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
43-51
43
51
-8
H03/01
NBB
77.8Avg total
38.2Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.339.278.4+0.150%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.439.378.6+0.150%-
Last 30 away (16)39.239.178.2+0.150%-
Last 10 (10)38.239.677.8-1.440%-
Last 5 (5)41.440.081.4+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)37.940.578.5-2.646%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)41.338.379.6+3.060%-
vs Weaker (7)38.937.976.7+1.043%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Vasco
#4
L
29-46
29
46
-17
H09/12
NBB
Quimsa
#3
L
36-48
36
48
-12
A16/12
Champions League Americas
Nacional
#7
L
31-43
31
43
-12
H17/12
Champions League Americas
Cerrado
#17
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A21/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
L
28-37
28
37
-9
A23/12
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H27/12
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H29/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H06/01
NBB
Franca
#1
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H08/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A11/01
NBB
79.6Avg total
35.5Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.542.379.8-4.823%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.042.581.5-3.531%-
Last 30 away (14)35.942.177.9-6.214%-
Last 10 (10)35.544.179.6-8.610%-
Last 5 (5)39.444.684.0-5.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)39.543.182.5-3.633%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)35.944.480.3-8.50%-
vs Weaker (5)35.035.870.8-0.840%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 76.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.619.9
55.9%
51.8%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.17.5
32.5%
33.9%22.5
🏀 Free throws19.813.8
69.7%
72.6%13.8
They take 58.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 74.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.6 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.316.8
53.7%
51.8%33.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.88.6
29.9%
33.9%25.8
🏀 Free throws20.414.7
72.1%
72.6%14.7
They take 60.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cearense
LWWLLLLLLW
Sao Paulo
LLLLWWLLLL
#8
League position
#11
+2.5
Net rating
-12.8
105.9
Offensive rating
101.8
103.4
Defensive rating
114.6
53.1%
Effective FG%
49.4%
47.4%
Opp. effective FG%
54.8%
18.7%
Turnover %
16.6%
26.7%
Off. rebound %
22.6%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.34
32.5%
3-point %
29.9%
56.9%
Assist %
58.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence105.9 · 101.8Defence103.4 · 114.6Shooting53.1% · 49.4%3-point %32.5% · 29.9%Ball care18.7% · 16.6%Off. rebounds26.7% · 22.6%Free throws0.34 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)30% · 20%
■ Cearense   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Cearense wins
6
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
06/11/23Sao Paulo v Cearense70-86
04/02/23Sao Paulo v Cearense85-70
08/12/22Cearense v Sao Paulo81-111
07/02/22Sao Paulo v Cearense73-62
04/11/21Cearense v Sao Paulo68-81
13/03/21Sao Paulo v Cearense98-76
23/12/20Cearense v Sao Paulo92-85
30/11/19Sao Paulo v Cearense92-73
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/01/24HFranca72-77
29/12/23HBrasilia83-73
27/12/23HCerrado87-76
23/12/23AVasco75-81
22/12/23AFlamengo74-77
18/12/23ABotafogo86-90
08/12/23HCaxias do Sul62-63
06/12/23HUniao Corinthians74-78
01/12/23AMinas88-93 OT
29/11/23APato76-75
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/01/24AUnifacisa84-107
08/01/24HFranca84-98
06/01/24HBauru89-93 OT
29/12/23HMogi61-63
27/12/23HSao Jose78-74
23/12/23ABrasilia72-63
21/12/23ACerrado74-82
17/12/23HNacional84-89 OT
16/12/23AQuimsa65-112
09/12/23HVasco70-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cearense
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL56%
HomeLLWWL67%
AwayWLLLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %56%67%44%
Points / game78.177.878.3
Allowed / game75.873.178.6
Point differential+2.2+4.7-0.2
Avg total153.9150.9156.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%44%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won45% (11)40% (5)50% (6)
Overtime %6%0%11%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL38%
HomeLWLLL36%
AwayWWLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211110
Win %38%36%40%
Points / game77.278.076.4
Allowed / game81.180.581.9
Point differential-3.9-2.5-5.5
Avg total158.4158.5158.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+5%9%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)40% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %5%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas2017385%85.572.8+12.8
2 Flamengo2017385%84.274.2+9.9
3 Franca2016480%87.575.8+11.6
4 Unifacisa1913668%83.078.3+4.7
5 Vasco1913668%74.070.3+3.7
6 Paulistano2013765%74.271.8+2.4
7 Bauru2012860%78.877.2+1.7
8 Sao Jose1911858%79.574.7+4.8
9 Cearense1810856%78.175.8+2.2
10 Pato2091145%75.677.2-1.6
11 Corinthians Paulista1981142%79.881.4-1.6
12 Pinheiros1981142%76.478.8-2.5
13 Sao Paulo2181338%77.281.1-3.9
14 Caxias do Sul1961332%72.279.2-6.9
15 Botafogo1961332%77.084.9-7.9
16 Uniao Corinthians1961332%71.980.5-8.5
17 Cerrado1951426%73.875.7-1.9
18 Mogi1931616%73.379.7-6.4
19 Brasilia1931616%70.784.8-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Cearense2016221775
Sao Paulo1825201881
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