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Olimpia Milano vs Virtus Roma Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 01 Mar 2020
Tip-off: 15:30
Postponed
Position#4
Record14-7
FormWLWWW
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game74.0
vs
Position#15
Record7-14
FormLLLLL
Points / game78.0
Allowed / game85.1
ItalyLega ARound 23
Domestic2019-20
Meetings · Olimpia Milano v Virtus Roma
18 Oct 2020
MIL93
VRO71
01 Mar 2020
MIL v VRO
upcoming
12 Apr 2015
MIL77
VRO56
16 Mar 2014
MIL85
VRO61
22 Oct 2012
MIL87
VRO82
03 Jan 2012
MIL83
VRO75
21 Nov 2010
MIL76
VRO70
25 Apr 2010
MIL64
VRO66
04 Jan 2009
MIL68
VRO85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Olimpia Milano win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Virtus Roma win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Olimpia MilanoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#17
W
71-65
71
65
+6
A08/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A15/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
W
81-69
81
69
+12
H22/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
70-83
70
83
-13
A29/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
83-89
83
89
-6
H05/01
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
91-67
91
67
+24
H12/01
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
72-78
72
78
-6
A19/01
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
85-67
85
67
+18
A26/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
W
77-74
77
74
+3
A01/02
Lega A
Cremona
#6
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H09/02
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-16
14-14
21-16
19-19
20-19
21-22
18-13
12-16
28-21
15-17
19-9
19-22
20-24
20-22
16-17
14-20
19-22
17-26
26-13
21-28
19-22
22-19
20-15
30-11
15-9
19-20
17-27
21-22
23-15
18-19
25-12
19-21
14-16
18-18
24-15
21-25
23-16
19-23
17-22
18-13
151.4Avg total
77.8Scored
73.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)80.374.0154.4+6.367%
Season at home (11)84.575.0159.5+9.573%
Season away (10)75.873.0148.8+2.860%
Last 10 (10)77.873.6151.4+4.270%
Last 5 (5)80.472.0152.4+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)82.592.0174.5-9.50%
vs Similar (10)82.379.9162.2+2.460%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)81.173.8154.9+7.372%
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus RomaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trieste
#14
W
82-72
82
72
+10
H08/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
W
88-82
88
82
+6
A14/12
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
53-83
53
83
-30
H22/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
L
77-79
77
79
-2
A26/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
L
88-96
88
96
-8
A29/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
68-97
68
97
-29
H12/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
L
81-88 OT
81
88
-7
A19/01
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
92-103
92
103
-11
A26/01
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
L
80-81
80
81
-1
H02/02
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
L
92-95
92
95
-3
A08/02
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-22
18-13
20-19
17-18
30-30
17-22
13-15
28-15
15-25
13-22
12-16
13-20
17-10
26-30
21-18
13-21
19-31
22-27
25-16
22-22
14-22
15-28
21-21
18-26
15-20
20-12
23-23
18-21
22-32
29-26
24-22
17-23
21-21
27-15
14-25
18-20
18-22
23-19
16-28
35-26
167.7Avg total
80.1Scored
87.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)78.085.1163.1-7.033%
Season at home (10)75.682.2157.8-6.640%
Season away (11)80.387.7168.0-7.527%
Last 10 (10)80.187.6167.7-7.520%
Last 5 (5)82.692.8175.4-10.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)77.987.6165.5-9.621%
vs Similar (6)77.077.2154.2-0.233%
vs Weaker (5)88.275.4163.6+12.8100%
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -3.7-3.7Q2Q2: -1.7-1.7Q2: -0.4-0.4Q3Q3: +4.4+4.4Q3: -1.4-1.4Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.3-1.3
Olimpia MilanoVirtus Roma
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Olimpia MilanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#17
W
31-30
31
30
+1
A08/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A15/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H22/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A29/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H05/01
Lega A
Treviso
#13
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H12/01
Lega A
Brescia
#3
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A19/01
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
41-34
41
34
+7
A26/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A01/02
Lega A
Cremona
#6
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H09/02
Lega A
76.1Avg total
38.1Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.438.077.4+1.450%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.538.279.7+3.356%-
Last 30 away (14)37.037.974.9-0.943%-
Last 10 (10)38.138.076.1+0.150%-
Last 5 (5)38.035.473.4+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)46.544.090.5+2.550%-
vs Similar (10)40.138.878.9+1.340%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)38.236.975.2+1.356%-
This opponent (Virtus Roma) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Virtus RomaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trieste
#14
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H08/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
L
47-52
47
52
-5
A14/12
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
28-47
28
47
-19
H22/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
43-40
43
40
+3
A26/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
L
41-58
41
58
-17
A29/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
29-50
29
50
-21
H12/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
W
35-32
35
32
+3
A19/01
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
51-58
51
58
-7
A26/01
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
W
48-36
48
36
+12
H02/02
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A08/02
Lega A
85.7Avg total
40.8Scored
44.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.743.284.0-2.547%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.140.881.9+0.371%-
Last 30 away (16)40.445.485.8-4.925%-
Last 10 (10)40.844.985.7-4.140%-
Last 5 (5)40.843.484.2-2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)38.745.684.3-6.932%-
vs Similar (6)43.238.581.7+4.767%-
vs Weaker (5)45.639.885.4+5.880%-
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Olimpia Milanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Olimpia Milano: 76.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.316.0
46.6%
52.0%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.48.7
37.2%
35.1%26.1
🏀 Free throws24.718.5
74.9%
73.6%18.5
They take 57.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Virtus Romatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Virtus Roma: 77.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.2 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.522.6
53.2%
52.0%45.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.87.1
34.1%
35.1%21.3
🏀 Free throws16.911.4
67.5%
73.6%11.4
They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 Mar 2020 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Olimpia Milano
WWWLWLLWWW
Virtus Roma
LLLLLLLLWW
#4
League position
#15
+5.4
Net rating
-13.6
109.1
Offensive rating
106.1
103.7
Defensive rating
119.7
50.3%
Effective FG%
52.5%
47.9%
Opp. effective FG%
56.2%
19.3%
Turnover %
18.1%
33.1%
Off. rebound %
29.2%
0.43
Free-throw rate
0.27
37.2%
3-point %
34.1%
55.9%
Assist %
54.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence109.1 · 106.1Defence103.7 · 119.7Shooting50.3% · 52.5%3-point %37.2% · 34.1%Ball care19.3% · 18.1%Off. rebounds33.1% · 29.2%Free throws0.43 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 20%
■ Olimpia Milano   ■ Virtus Roma
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Olimpia Milano wins
2
Virtus Roma wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/20HCremona77-74
01/02/20ABrindisi77-74
26/01/20ATrieste85-67
19/01/20ABrescia72-78
12/01/20HTreviso91-67
05/01/20HCantu83-89
29/12/19AVirtus Bologna70-83
22/12/19HTrento81-69
15/12/19AVenezia71-70
08/12/19APesaro71-65
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/20AFortitudo Bologna92-95
02/02/20HPistoia80-81
26/01/20ACremona92-103
19/01/20ABrindisi81-88 OT
12/01/20HVirtus Bologna68-97
29/12/19AReggiana88-96
26/12/19AVenezia77-79
22/12/19HBrescia53-83
14/12/19ATrento88-82
08/12/19HTrieste82-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Olimpia Milano
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW67%
HomeWWLWW73%
AwayWLLWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211110
Win %67%73%60%
Points / game80.384.575.8
Allowed / game74.075.073.0
Point differential+6.3+9.5+2.8
Avg total154.4159.5148.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%64%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)50% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Virtus Roma
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL33%
HomeLWLLL40%
AwayLLLLL27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211011
Win %33%40%27%
Points / game78.075.680.3
Allowed / game85.182.287.7
Point differential-7.0-6.6-7.5
Avg total163.1157.8168.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%20%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)50% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %5%0%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna2018290%86.075.0+10.9
2 Sassari2015575%85.275.3+9.8
3 Brescia2114767%81.374.0+7.3
4 Olimpia Milano2114767%80.374.0+6.3
5 Brindisi2113862%84.680.8+3.8
6 Cremona2012860%81.380.8+0.5
7 Venezia21111052%78.075.3+2.7
8 Trento21111052%77.979.3-1.4
9 Fortitudo Bologna21111052%77.379.5-2.2
10 Varese1991047%82.680.1+2.5
11 Cantu2091145%76.779.0-2.4
12 Reggiana2191243%82.984.0-1.0
13 Treviso2181338%77.179.2-2.1
14 Virtus Roma2171433%78.085.1-7.0
15 Pistoia2171433%74.282.6-8.4
16 Trieste2161529%75.080.5-5.5
17 Pesaro201195%79.292.5-13.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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