Pavlodar vs Aktobe Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 19 Jan 2026

Tip-off: 11:00

Final 52-86

17-16 13-28 8-23 14-19

Position#14

Record2-12

FormLWLWL

Points / game53.6

Allowed / game89.1

Pavlodar

Aktobe 🏆

Position#4

Record14-1

FormWWWWW

Points / game86.9

Allowed / game67.7

Higher League

Other2025-26

Meetings · Pavlodar v Aktobe

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pavlodar winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Aktobe winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Pavlodar

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPavlodar

Date

Competition

Karaganda

60-80

-20

50avg 48

H18/11

Higher League

Turan

60-126

126

-66

45avg 48

H27/11

Higher League

Shymkent

52-109

109

-57

28avg 48

A28/11

Higher League

Turan

35-94

-59

15avg 48

H29/11

Higher League

Shymkent

63-111

111

-48

53avg 48

A30/11

Higher League

Atyrau 2

35-92

-57

25avg 48

A15/12

Higher League

Kaspiy Aktau 2

#15

93-63

+30

89avg 48

H16/12

Higher League

Atyrau 2

55-86

-31

54avg 48

A17/12

Higher League

Kaspiy Aktau 2

#15

60-58

47avg 48

H18/12

Higher League

Aktobe

52-112

112

-60

no box

A18/01

Higher League

23-16

18-18

13-21

6-25

9-36

21-22

16-40

14-28

8-35

10-27

18-36

16-11

7-22

14-28

7-22

15-31

11-26

13-31

24-23

11-27

11-23

8-20

5-22

21-17

26-14

22-14

24-18

7-27

17-20

14-20

17-19

12-15

9-21

23-11

16-11

15-35

2-27

23-26

12-24

149.6Avg total

56.5Scored

93.1Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (14)	53.6	89.1	142.6	-35.5	14%
Season at home (7)	55.6	84.9	140.4	-29.3	29%
Season away (7)	51.6	93.3	144.9	-41.7	0%
Last 10 (10)	56.5	93.1	149.6	-36.6	20%
Last 5 (5)	59.0	82.2	141.2	-23.2	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	64.0	90.8	154.8	-26.8	7%
vs Similar (2)	76.5	60.5	137.0	+16.0	100%
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Aktobe

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormAktobe

Date

Competition

Bars Petropavlovsk

66-58

55avg 81

H28/11

Higher League

Tigers-KazATU

#10

82-79

78avg 81

A29/11

Higher League

Tigers-KazATU

#10

85-54

+31

81avg 81

H30/11

Higher League

BC Almaty 2

92-84

91avg 81

H04/12

Higher League

BC Almaty 2

94-89

94avg 81

A05/12

Higher League

CHAMP1ON

76-71

67avg 81

H06/12

Higher League

CHAMP1ON

81-59

+22

81avg 81

A07/12

Higher League

Karaganda

95-58

+37

no box

H16/01

Higher League

Karaganda

82-79 OT

no box

A17/01

Higher League

Pavlodar

#14

112-52

112

+60

no box

H18/01

Higher League

17-5

15-21

13-12

21-20

30-17

19-20

15-24

18-18

21-13

20-11

23-14

21-16

22-21

21-16

24-23

25-24

19-29

23-16

32-15

20-29

14-17

29-20

13-18

20-16

21-15

17-12

24-15

19-17

19-10

32-11

22-21

22-16

18-13

14-22

15-15

29-26

35-15

27-2

26-23

24-12

154.8Avg total

86.5Scored

68.3Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (15)	86.9	67.7	154.6	+19.3	93%
Season at home (8)	90.4	65.5	155.9	+24.9	100%
Season away (7)	83.0	70.1	153.1	+12.9	86%
Last 10 (10)	86.5	68.3	154.8	+18.2	100%
Last 5 (5)	89.2	63.8	153.0	+25.4	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)	65.9	73.0	138.9	-7.1	20%
vs Similar (2)	93.0	86.5	179.5	+6.5	100%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	86.8	67.6	154.5	+19.2	85%

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

PavlodarAktobe

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	15.2	24.7	39.9	-9.4	17%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	15.1	23.0	38.1	-7.9	25%	-
Last 30 away (18)	15.3	25.8	41.1	-10.4	11%	-
Last 10 (10)	12.8	26.1	38.9	-13.3	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	13.2	24.2	37.4	-11.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	15.1	25.3	40.4	-10.1	14%	-
vs Similar (2)	16.5	16.0	32.5	+0.5	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (28)	20.6	16.6	37.2	+4.0	68%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	20.8	15.5	36.3	+5.2	71%	-
Last 30 away (11)	20.3	18.3	38.5	+2.0	64%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.6	15.5	37.1	+6.1	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.4	14.0	35.4	+7.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)	19.2	18.3	37.5	+0.9	62%	-
vs Similar (2)	20.5	25.0	45.5	-4.5	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	21.9	13.6	35.5	+8.3	77%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	16.2	21.8	38.0	-5.5	23%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	17.8	20.6	38.3	-2.8	42%	-
Last 30 away (18)	15.2	22.6	37.8	-7.3	11%	-
Last 10 (10)	13.2	22.0	35.2	-8.8	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	13.0	21.0	34.0	-8.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	16.1	22.1	38.2	-5.9	21%	-
vs Similar (2)	17.5	17.5	35.0	+0.0	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (28)	20.5	18.6	39.2	+1.9	50%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	21.4	18.6	40.1	+2.8	53%	-
Last 30 away (11)	19.2	18.6	37.8	+0.5	45%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.7	15.1	36.8	+6.6	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.8	13.4	37.2	+10.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)	18.6	21.8	40.5	-3.2	15%	-
vs Similar (2)	22.0	16.0	38.0	+6.0	100%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	22.2	15.8	38.1	+6.4	77%	-

PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Karaganda

41-34

H18/11

Higher League

Turan

30-58

-28

H27/11

Higher League

Shymkent

18-62

-44

A28/11

Higher League

Turan

14-44

-30

H29/11

Higher League

Shymkent

26-57

-31

A30/11

Higher League

Atyrau 2

22-50

-28

A15/12

Higher League

Kaspiy Aktau 2

#15

47-31

+16

H16/12

Higher League

Atyrau 2

24-47

-23

A17/12

Higher League

Kaspiy Aktau 2

#15

21-36

-15

H18/12

Higher League

Aktobe

17-62

-45

A18/01

Higher League

74.1Avg total

26.0Scored

48.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	31.5	46.4	77.9	-15.0	20%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	32.8	43.6	76.4	-10.8	42%	-
Last 30 away (18)	30.6	48.3	78.9	-17.8	6%	-
Last 10 (10)	26.0	48.1	74.1	-22.1	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	26.2	45.2	71.4	-19.0	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	31.3	47.4	78.6	-16.1	18%	-
vs Similar (2)	34.0	33.5	67.5	+0.5	50%	-
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

AktobeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Bars Petropavlovsk

32-26

H28/11

Higher League

Tigers-KazATU

#10

49-37

+12

A29/11

Higher League

Tigers-KazATU

#10

41-24

+17

H30/11

Higher League

BC Almaty 2

43-37

H04/12

Higher League

BC Almaty 2

42-45

-3

A05/12

Higher League

CHAMP1ON

43-37

H06/12

Higher League

CHAMP1ON

38-27

+11

A07/12

Higher League

Karaganda

51-21

+30

H16/01

Higher League

Karaganda

32-35

-3

A17/01

Higher League

Pavlodar

#14

62-17

+45

H18/01

Higher League

73.9Avg total

43.3Scored

30.6Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (28)	41.1	35.2	76.4	+5.9	57%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	42.2	34.2	76.4	+8.0	65%	-
Last 30 away (11)	39.5	36.9	76.4	+2.5	45%	-
Last 10 (10)	43.3	30.6	73.9	+12.7	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	45.2	27.4	72.6	+17.8	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)	37.8	40.2	78.0	-2.3	31%	-
vs Similar (2)	42.5	41.0	83.5	+1.5	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	44.2	29.5	73.6	+14.7	85%	-

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	16.6	21.5	38.1	-4.9	27%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	17.2	19.9	37.2	-2.7	42%	-
Last 30 away (18)	16.2	22.6	38.8	-6.3	17%	-
Last 10 (10)	16.4	24.7	41.1	-8.3	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.0	18.2	36.2	-0.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	16.2	22.1	38.4	-5.9	21%	-
vs Similar (2)	22.5	12.5	35.0	+10.0	100%	-
vs Weaker	no games

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (28)	20.4	19.4	39.9	+1.0	50%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	20.4	19.2	39.5	+1.2	59%	-
Last 30 away (11)	20.5	19.8	40.4	+0.7	36%	-
Last 10 (10)	20.7	18.0	38.7	+2.7	70%	-
Last 5 (5)	20.0	18.4	38.4	+1.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)	18.5	20.2	38.7	-1.8	31%	-
vs Similar (2)	28.0	19.0	47.0	+9.0	100%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	21.2	18.7	39.9	+2.5	62%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	16.3	20.5	36.8	-4.1	40%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	14.3	20.8	35.1	-6.4	25%	-
Last 30 away (18)	17.7	20.3	37.9	-2.6	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	14.1	20.3	34.4	-6.2	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	14.8	18.8	33.6	-4.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	16.1	20.9	37.0	-4.8	36%	-
vs Similar (2)	20.0	14.5	34.5	+5.5	100%	-
vs Weaker	no games

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (28)	20.5	20.5	41.0	+0.0	57%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	20.9	20.0	40.9	+0.9	59%	-
Last 30 away (11)	19.9	21.2	41.1	-1.3	55%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.9	19.4	41.3	+2.5	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.8	17.4	40.2	+5.4	100%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)	19.7	20.8	40.5	-1.1	46%	-
vs Similar (2)	22.5	26.5	49.0	-4.0	50%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	21.0	19.2	40.2	+1.8	69%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	33.0	42.0	74.9	-9.0	23%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	31.6	40.7	72.2	-9.1	42%	-
Last 30 away (18)	33.9	42.8	76.7	-8.9	11%	-
Last 10 (10)	30.5	45.0	75.5	-14.5	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	32.8	37.0	69.8	-4.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)	32.3	43.0	75.3	-10.8	18%	-
vs Similar (2)	42.5	27.0	69.5	+15.5	100%	-
vs Weaker	no games

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (28)	40.9	39.9	80.8	+1.0	54%	-
Last 30 at home (17)	41.2	39.2	80.4	+2.1	53%	-
Last 30 away (11)	40.5	41.0	81.5	-0.5	55%	-
Last 10 (10)	42.6	37.4	80.0	+5.2	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	42.8	35.8	78.6	+7.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)	38.2	41.0	79.2	-2.8	31%	-
vs Similar (2)	50.5	45.5	96.0	+5.0	100%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)	42.2	37.9	80.2	+4.3	69%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Pavlodar wins

Aktobe wins

Date	Game	Score
18/01/26	Aktobe v Pavlodar	112-52
09/12/24	Aktobe v Pavlodar	63-67
08/12/24	Aktobe v Pavlodar	72-93
13/02/24	Aktobe v Pavlodar	96-77
12/02/24	Aktobe v Pavlodar	81-67
15/12/23	Pavlodar v Aktobe	76-104
14/12/23	Pavlodar v Aktobe	71-87
25/03/19	Aktobe v Pavlodar	85-66
28/02/19	Aktobe v Pavlodar	80-56
01/02/19	Aktobe v Pavlodar	92-66

Pavlodarlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
18/01/26	A	Aktobe	52-112
18/12/25	H	Kaspiy Aktau 2	60-58
17/12/25	A	Atyrau 2	55-86
16/12/25	H	Kaspiy Aktau 2	93-63
15/12/25	A	Atyrau 2	35-92
30/11/25	A	Shymkent	63-111
29/11/25	H	Turan	35-94
28/11/25	A	Shymkent	52-109
27/11/25	H	Turan	60-126
18/11/25	H	Karaganda	60-80

Aktobelast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
18/01/26	H	Pavlodar	112-52
17/01/26	A	Karaganda	82-79 OT
16/01/26	H	Karaganda	95-58
07/12/25	A	CHAMP1ON	81-59
06/12/25	H	CHAMP1ON	76-71
05/12/25	A	BC Almaty 2	94-89
04/12/25	H	BC Almaty 2	92-84
30/11/25	H	Tigers-KazATU	85-54
29/11/25	A	Tigers-KazATU	82-79
28/11/25	H	Bars Petropavlovsk	66-58

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pavlodar

Higher League 2025-26

Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWLWL	14%
Home	LLLWW	29%
Away	LLLLL	0%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	14	7	7
Win %	14%	29%	0%
Points / game	53.6	55.6	51.6
Allowed / game	89.1	84.9	93.3
Point differential	-35.5	-29.3	-41.7
Avg total	142.6	140.4	144.9
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	7%	14%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (1)	100% (1)	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Aktobe

Higher League 2025-26

Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWW	93%
Home	WWWWW	100%
Away	LWWWW	86%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	15	8	7
Win %	93%	100%	86%
Points / game	86.9	90.4	83.0
Allowed / game	67.7	65.5	70.1
Point differential	+19.3	+24.9	+12.9
Avg total	154.6	155.9	153.1
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	53%	62%	43%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (4)	100% (1)	100% (3)
Overtime %	7%	0%	14%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Turan	18	18	0	100%	89.6	60.4	+29.2
2	Aktobe	15	14	1	93%	86.9	67.7	+19.3
3	Shymkent	18	16	2	89%	97.6	69.8	+27.7
4	Atyrau 2	18	14	4	78%	78.2	69.7	+8.4
5	Bars Petropavlovsk	16	11	5	69%	83.4	63.9	+19.6
6	ChelSU Kostanay	16	10	6	62%	75.6	76.9	-1.3
7	BC Almaty 2	16	8	8	50%	78.2	73.9	+4.4
8	CHAMP1ON	16	7	9	44%	70.4	72.4	-2.1
9	Arlans	13	5	8	38%	75.6	79.4	-3.8
10	Tigers-KazATU	16	5	11	31%	67.1	81.5	-14.4
11	Karaganda	15	4	11	27%	76.5	82.5	-5.9
12	Tobol Kostanay 2	16	3	13	19%	70.8	83.1	-12.3
13	Pavlodar	14	2	12	14%	53.6	89.1	-35.5
14	AiRom	13	1	12	8%	59.9	79.1	-19.2
15	Kaspiy Aktau 2	18	1	17	6%	57.2	83.9	-26.8

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Pavlodar	17	13	8	14	52
Aktobe	16	28	23	19	86

← all games of the day

Pavlodar vs Aktobe Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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