PythiaBasketballBETA
Higher LeaguePavlodar will host Shymkent on 19 November 2026 in the Higher League, and the Pythia model names Shymkent the clear favourite, giving the visiting side a 100% chance of victory and Pavlodar a 0% chance, a result that reflects Shymkent's 4-1 record over the last five games and a 5-0 advantage in all five meetings, the most recent being a 111-63 win on 30 November 2025. Pavlodar has struggled this season, going 0-5 in all games with an average of 62.4 points scored and 94.2 points allowed, while Shymkent has posted 4-1 in its last five games, and their overall season record is 4-1 with 99 points per game and 62 points allowed. Pavlodar's home form is even poorer, 0-2 at home with 58 points scored and 87 points allowed, and their last five results include losses to ChelSU Kostanay, Tulpar and BC Almaty, the most recent being a 55-86 defeat at home on 25 October. Shymkent's recent outings show a 64-87 loss to Turan but two wins over Atyrau, one at home and one away. The Pythia projection puts the final score at 62-99, with a total of 160.6 points and an overtime probability of 0%.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (5) | 62.4 | 94.2 | 156.6 | -31.8 | 0% |
| Season at home (2) | 58.0 | 87.0 | 145.0 | -29.0 | 0% |
| Season away (3) | 65.3 | 99.0 | 164.3 | -33.7 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 59.5 | 85.8 | 145.3 | -26.3 | 10% |
| Last 5 (5) | 62.4 | 94.2 | 156.6 | -31.8 | 0% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (28) | 58.3 | 87.7 | 146.0 | -29.4 | 4% |
| vs Similar (2) | 76.5 | 60.5 | 137.0 | +16.0 | 100% |
| vs Weaker | no games | ||||
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | no games | ||||
| Season at home | no games | ||||
| Season away | no games | ||||
| Last 10 (10) | 91.8 | 74.7 | 166.5 | +17.1 | 90% |
| Last 5 (5) | 89.8 | 77.8 | 167.6 | +12.0 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger | no games | ||||
| vs Similar (5) | 79.0 | 77.8 | 156.8 | +1.2 | 40% |
| vs Weaker (25) | 96.2 | 69.4 | 165.6 | +26.7 | 96% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 29.7 | 46.3 | 76.0 | -16.6 | 13% | - |
| Last 30 at home (13) | 31.2 | 39.2 | 70.3 | -8.0 | 31% | - |
| Last 30 away (17) | 28.6 | 51.8 | 80.4 | -23.2 | 0% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 33.0 | 47.0 | 80.0 | -14.0 | 10% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 34.2 | 52.2 | 86.4 | -18.0 | 0% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (28) | 29.4 | 47.2 | 76.6 | -17.9 | 11% | - |
| vs Similar (2) | 34.0 | 33.5 | 67.5 | +0.5 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker | no games | |||||
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 50.0 | 35.0 | 85.0 | +15.0 | 87% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 50.1 | 34.9 | 85.1 | +15.2 | 81% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 49.9 | 35.1 | 84.9 | +14.8 | 93% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 47.2 | 36.6 | 83.8 | +10.6 | 80% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 44.2 | 40.8 | 85.0 | +3.4 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger | no games | |||||
| vs Similar (5) | 41.4 | 40.6 | 82.0 | +0.8 | 40% | - |
| vs Weaker (25) | 51.7 | 33.9 | 85.6 | +17.8 | 96% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 48.2 | 18.0 | 49.6% | 36.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 22.3 | 4.8 | 28.6% | 14.4 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 15.1 | 8.4 | 63.9% | 8.4 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 45.2 | 25.5 | 49.6% | 51.0 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 28.1 | 9.7 | 28.6% | 29.1 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 22.6 | 11.7 | 63.9% | 11.7 |
Pavlodar
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 | Shymkent v Pavlodar | 111-63 |
| 28/11/25 | Shymkent v Pavlodar | 109-52 |
| 13/03/23 | Pavlodar v Shymkent | 82-88 |
| 15/02/23 | Pavlodar v Shymkent | 55-81 |
| 25/12/22 | Pavlodar v Shymkent | 81-98 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/26 | H | ChelSU Kostanay | 55-86 |
| 24/10/26 | A | Tulpar | 65-86 |
| 23/10/26 | A | BC Almaty 2 | 79-107 |
| 22/10/26 | H | ChelSU Kostanay | 61-88 |
| 21/10/26 | A | Tulpar | 52-104 |
| 07/05/26 | A | Arlans | 49-73 |
| 06/05/26 | H | AiRom | 64-58 |
| 05/05/26 | A | Tigers-KazATU | 41-96 |
| 04/05/26 | H | Tobol Kostanay 2 | 65-76 |
| 03/05/26 | A | Karaganda | 64-84 |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | A | Turan | 64-87 |
| 30/04/26 | A | Atyrau 2 | 88-80 |
| 29/04/26 | H | Atyrau 2 | 94-83 |
| 27/04/26 | A | ChelSU Kostanay | 88-75 |
| 26/04/26 | H | ChelSU Kostanay | 115-64 |
| 16/04/26 | H | Atyrau 2 | 85-64 |
| 15/04/26 | A | Kaspiy Aktau 2 | 87-86 |
| 14/04/26 | H | Atyrau 2 | 89-68 |
| 13/04/26 | A | Kaspiy Aktau 2 | 105-73 |
| 12/03/26 | A | Arlans | 103-67 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | LLLLL | 0% |
| Home | LL | 0% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Win % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Points / game | 62.4 | 58.0 | 65.3 |
| Allowed / game | 94.2 | 87.0 | 99.0 |
| Point differential | -31.8 | -29.0 | -33.7 |
| Avg total | 156.6 | 145.0 | 164.3 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | - | - |
| Home | - | - |
| Away | - | - |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | - | - | - |
| Win % | - | - | - |
| Points / game | - | - | - |
| Allowed / game | - | - | - |
| Point differential | - | - | - |
| Avg total | - | - | - |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | - | - | - |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | - | - | - |
| Overtime % | - | - | - |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bars Petropavlovsk | 9 | 9 | 0 | 100% | 88.1 | 63.3 | +24.8 |
| 2 |  BC Almaty 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 80% | 83.2 | 72.6 | +10.6 |
| 3 |  Tigers-KazATU | 9 | 7 | 2 | 78% | 87.9 | 71.6 | +16.3 |
| 4 | Tulpar | 9 | 4 | 5 | 44% | 82.0 | 84.8 | -2.8 |
| 5 |  Karaganda | 5 | 2 | 3 | 40% | 68.2 | 74.8 | -6.6 |
| 6 |  ChelSU Kostanay | 9 | 2 | 7 | 22% | 70.1 | 82.1 | -12.0 |
| 7 |  Arlans | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 68.2 | 87.8 | -19.6 |
| 8 | Pavlodar | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0% | 62.4 | 94.2 | -31.8 |
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