Pavlodar vs Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 05 Apr 2025

Tip-off: 12:00

Final 91-105

26-33 31-20 11-23 23-29

Position#8

Record4-23

FormLLWLL

Points / game71.1

Allowed / game85.9

Pavlodar

Tobol Kostanay 🏆

Position#2

Record22-5

FormWLWWW

Points / game85.3

Allowed / game74.3

National LeagueNational League - Quarter-finals

Other2024-25

Meetings · Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay

Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pavlodar winLost

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

Tobol Kostanay winWon

-no forecast

Best oddsnone

Implied-

Edge-

No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Pavlodar

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormPavlodar

Date

Competition

Tobol Kostanay

75-89

-14

76avg 63

A06/01

National League

Almaty

70-90

-20

58avg 63

A11/01

National League

Almaty

89-102

102

-13

80avg 63

A12/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

74-105

105

-31

60avg 63

A15/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

64-96

-32

57avg 63

A16/01

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

79-82 OT

-3

69avg 63

A08/03

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

75-96

-21

67avg 63

A09/03

National League

Astana 2

70-66 OT

59avg 63

A11/03

National League

Astana 2

68-82

-14

57avg 63

A12/03

National League

Tobol Kostanay

78-104

104

-26

62avg 63

A04/04

National League

21-16

21-30

22-23

11-20

18-20

17-22

15-21

20-27

27-31

21-29

21-25

20-17

10-38

25-16

24-23

15-28

19-21

14-25

15-20

16-30

25-22

11-26

21-12

17-14

21-29

16-16

17-29

21-22

10-18

25-16

15-8

13-21

15-20

15-25

21-22

17-15

20-31

15-26

20-26

23-21

165.4Avg total

74.2Scored

91.2Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (27)	71.1	85.9	157.0	-14.8	15%
Season at home (12)	68.1	85.4	153.5	-17.3	8%
Season away (15)	73.5	86.3	159.7	-12.8	20%
Last 10 (10)	74.2	91.2	165.4	-17.0	10%
Last 5 (5)	74.0	86.0	160.0	-12.0	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)	69.9	86.5	156.4	-16.6	13%
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Tobol Kostanay Kazakhstan

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormKostanay

Date

Competition

Astana 2

112-73

112

+39

121avg 89

H25/01

National League

Almaty

101-98

101

97avg 89

A01/03

National League

Almaty

72-88

-16

68avg 89

A02/03

National League

Atyrau

84-75

96avg 89

A08/03

National League

Atyrau

79-108

108

-29

71avg 89

A09/03

National League

Irbis Almaty

83-69

+14

87avg 89

H16/03

National League

Irbis Almaty

84-85

-1

91avg 89

H17/03

National League

Almaty

92-81

+11

95avg 89

H24/03

National League

Almaty

20-0

+20

no box

H25/03

National League

Pavlodar

104-78

104

+26

115avg 89

H04/04

National League

23-16

40-21

31-16

18-20

23-24

35-21

21-31

22-22

22-24

8-28

20-22

22-14

24-15

19-21

17-21

24-18

15-28

22-29

26-30

16-21

21-20

14-18

20-11

28-20

26-31

15-15

30-22

13-17

26-17

20-19

25-30

21-15

–

31-20

26-15

26-20

21-23

158.6Avg total

83.1Scored

75.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (27)	85.3	74.3	159.7	+11.0	81%
Season at home (15)	86.1	72.3	158.4	+13.9	80%
Season away (12)	84.3	76.9	161.2	+7.4	83%
Last 10 (10)	83.1	75.5	158.6	+7.6	70%
Last 5 (5)	76.6	62.6	139.2	+14.0	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (5)	87.0	83.0	170.0	+4.0	40%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)	85.5	74.1	159.6	+11.4	84%

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

PavlodarTobol Kostanay

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	15.9	23.4	39.3	-7.5	13%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	14.2	22.8	36.9	-8.6	8%	-
Last 30 away (17)	17.2	23.8	41.1	-6.6	18%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.6	24.6	43.2	-6.0	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.2	24.0	42.2	-5.8	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)	15.9	23.4	39.3	-7.5	13%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker	no games

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	23.4	19.6	43.0	+3.8	69%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	23.2	20.1	43.3	+3.1	67%	-
Last 30 away (14)	23.6	19.1	42.6	+4.5	71%	-
Last 10 (9)	23.4	21.7	45.1	+1.8	56%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.8	23.2	47.0	+0.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (5)	24.0	21.8	45.8	+2.2	80%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)	23.2	19.1	42.4	+4.1	67%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.8	21.3	39.1	-3.5	23%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	18.2	21.2	39.4	-3.1	23%	-
Last 30 away (17)	17.5	21.4	38.9	-3.8	24%	-
Last 10 (10)	18.0	23.1	41.1	-5.1	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	16.4	21.8	38.2	-5.4	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)	17.8	21.3	39.1	-3.5	23%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker	no games

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	21.4	20.3	41.8	+1.1	59%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	22.7	19.0	41.7	+3.7	73%	-
Last 30 away (14)	20.0	21.8	41.8	-1.8	43%	-
Last 10 (9)	22.1	20.8	42.9	+1.3	44%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.4	19.2	38.6	+0.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (5)	17.2	21.4	38.6	-4.2	20%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)	22.3	20.1	42.4	+2.2	67%	-

PavlodarLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Tobol Kostanay

42-46

-4

A06/01

National League

Almaty

35-42

-7

A11/01

National League

Almaty

48-60

-12

A12/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

35-54

-19

A15/01

National League

Irbis Almaty

33-46

-13

A16/01

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

36-48

-12

A08/03

National League

Kaspiy Aktau

37-45

-8

A09/03

National League

Astana 2

35-34

A11/03

National League

Astana 2

30-45

-15

A12/03

National League

Tobol Kostanay

35-57

-22

A04/04

National League

84.3Avg total

36.6Scored

47.7Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	33.7	44.7	78.4	-11.0	13%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	32.3	44.0	76.3	-11.7	15%	-
Last 30 away (17)	34.8	45.2	79.9	-10.4	12%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.6	47.7	84.3	-11.1	10%	-
Last 5 (5)	34.6	45.8	80.4	-11.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)	33.7	44.7	78.4	-11.0	13%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker	no games

This opponent (Tobol Kostanay) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Tobol KostanayLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Astana 2

63-37

+26

H25/01

National League

Almaty

58-45

+13

A01/03

National League

Almaty

30-52

-22

A02/03

National League

Atyrau

43-36

A08/03

National League

Atyrau

37-57

-20

A09/03

National League

Irbis Almaty

35-38

-3

H16/03

National League

Irbis Almaty

41-46

-5

H17/03

National League

Almaty

46-36

+10

H24/03

National League

Pavlodar

57-35

+22

H04/04

National League

88.0Avg total

45.6Scored

42.4Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	44.8	39.9	84.7	+4.9	66%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	45.9	39.1	85.0	+6.9	73%	-
Last 30 away (14)	43.6	40.9	84.4	+2.7	57%	-
Last 10 (9)	45.6	42.4	88.0	+3.1	56%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.2	42.4	85.6	+0.8	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (5)	41.2	43.2	84.4	-2.0	20%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)	45.5	39.2	84.8	+6.3	75%	-

This opponent (Pavlodar) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	18.5	21.8	40.3	-3.3	37%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	18.8	22.5	41.2	-3.7	38%	-
Last 30 away (17)	18.4	21.3	39.6	-2.9	35%	-
Last 10 (10)	19.1	20.9	40.0	-1.8	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.8	19.4	38.2	-0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)	18.5	21.8	40.3	-3.3	37%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker	no games

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	22.1	19.9	42.0	+2.1	55%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	24.1	19.9	44.0	+4.3	67%	-
Last 30 away (14)	19.9	20.0	39.9	-0.1	43%	-
Last 10 (9)	24.0	22.6	46.6	+1.4	44%	-
Last 5 (5)	25.4	22.6	48.0	+2.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (5)	23.2	18.8	42.0	+4.4	60%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)	21.8	20.2	42.0	+1.7	54%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	17.3	19.6	36.9	-2.4	37%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	15.9	19.5	35.5	-3.6	23%	-
Last 30 away (17)	18.3	19.7	38.0	-1.4	47%	-
Last 10 (10)	17.3	21.5	38.8	-4.2	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	18.2	18.6	36.8	-0.4	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)	17.3	19.6	36.9	-2.4	37%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker	no games

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	21.1	18.3	39.5	+2.8	55%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	22.0	19.8	41.8	+2.2	53%	-
Last 30 away (14)	20.2	16.8	37.0	+3.4	57%	-
Last 10 (9)	20.6	18.9	39.4	+1.7	44%	-
Last 5 (5)	19.8	19.2	39.0	+0.6	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (5)	22.6	21.0	43.6	+1.6	60%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)	20.8	17.8	38.6	+3.0	54%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	35.8	41.4	77.2	-5.6	27%	-
Last 30 at home (13)	34.7	42.0	76.7	-7.3	31%	-
Last 30 away (17)	36.6	41.0	77.6	-4.4	24%	-
Last 10 (10)	36.4	42.4	78.8	-6.0	20%	-
Last 5 (5)	37.0	38.0	75.0	-1.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (30)	35.8	41.4	77.2	-5.6	27%	-
vs Similar	no games
vs Weaker	no games

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (29)	43.2	38.3	81.5	+4.9	76%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	46.1	39.7	85.8	+6.5	87%	-
Last 30 away (14)	40.1	36.8	76.9	+3.3	64%	-
Last 10 (9)	44.6	41.4	86.0	+3.1	78%	-
Last 5 (5)	45.2	41.8	87.0	+3.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger	no games
vs Similar (5)	45.8	39.8	85.6	+6.0	80%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)	42.7	38.0	80.6	+4.7	75%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Pavlodar wins

Tobol Kostanay wins

Date	Game	Score
04/04/25	Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar	104-78
06/01/25	Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar	89-75
05/01/25	Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar	87-69
23/10/24	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	72-111
22/10/24	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	74-107
10/01/24	Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar	111-82
09/01/24	Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar	101-83
23/10/23	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	71-98
22/10/23	Pavlodar v Tobol Kostanay	68-86
21/11/16	Tobol Kostanay v Pavlodar	95-53

Pavlodarlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/04/25	A	Tobol Kostanay	78-104
12/03/25	A	Astana 2	68-82
11/03/25	A	Astana 2	70-66 OT
09/03/25	A	Kaspiy Aktau	75-96
08/03/25	A	Kaspiy Aktau	79-82 OT
16/01/25	A	Irbis Almaty	64-96
15/01/25	A	Irbis Almaty	74-105
12/01/25	A	Almaty	89-102
11/01/25	A	Almaty	70-90
06/01/25	A	Tobol Kostanay	75-89

Tobol Kostanaylast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/04/25	H	Pavlodar	104-78
25/03/25	H	Almaty	20-0
24/03/25	H	Almaty	92-81
17/03/25	H	Irbis Almaty	84-85
16/03/25	H	Irbis Almaty	83-69
09/03/25	A	Atyrau	79-108
08/03/25	A	Atyrau	84-75
02/03/25	A	Almaty	72-88
01/03/25	A	Almaty	101-98
25/01/25	H	Astana 2	112-73

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pavlodar

National League 2024-25

Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLWLL	15%
Home	LWLLL	8%
Away	LLWLL	20%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	27	12	15
Win %	15%	8%	20%
Points / game	71.1	68.1	73.5
Allowed / game	85.9	85.4	86.3
Point differential	-14.8	-17.3	-12.8
Avg total	157.0	153.5	159.7
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	7%	8%	7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	67% (3)	-	67% (3)
Overtime %	7%	0%	13%

Tobol Kostanay

National League 2024-25

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLWWW	81%
Home	WLWWW	80%
Away	WWLWL	83%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	27	15	12
Win %	81%	80%	83%
Points / game	85.3	86.1	84.3
Allowed / game	74.3	72.3	76.9
Point differential	+11.0	+13.9	+7.4
Avg total	159.7	158.4	161.2
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	48%	60%	33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	75% (8)	60% (5)	100% (3)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Tobol Kostanay	27	22	5	81%	85.3	74.3	+11.0
2	Irbis Almaty	24	19	5	79%	81.1	70.9	+10.2
3	Almaty	26	15	11	58%	74.4	71.7	+2.7
4	Atyrau	26	14	12	54%	79.9	76.3	+3.5
5	Kaspiy Aktau	26	12	14	46%	73.8	74.8	-1.1
6	Astana 2	26	10	16	38%	74.7	80.3	-5.6
7	Aktobe	16	3	13	19%	67.5	75.6	-8.1
8	Pavlodar	27	4	23	15%	71.1	85.9	-14.8

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Pavlodar	26	31	11	23	91
Tobol Kostanay	33	20	23	29	105

← all games of the day

Pavlodar vs Tobol Kostanay Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

Manage Cookies

Strictly Necessary

Functionality Cookies

Performance Cookies

Third Party Marketing/Targeting

A Pro feature