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Saga vs Nagasaki Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 21 Oct 2026
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 66-84
20-24 15-24 17-17 14-19
Position#25
Record1-8
FormLWLLL
Points / game75.2
Allowed / game93.6
vs
Position#16
Record3-6
FormWWLLL
Points / game71.1
Allowed / game80.4
JapanB League· Saga Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Saga v Nagasaki
21 Oct 2026
SAGA66
NAGA84
05 Mar 2025
SAGA86
NAGA92
02 Dec 2024
SAGA78
NAGA93
01 Dec 2024
SAGA80
NAGA51
14 Apr 2024
SAGA73
NAGA80
13 Apr 2024
SAGA61
NAGA63
06 Dec 2023
SAGA81
NAGA91
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akita
#26
W
87-70
87
70
+17
A03/05
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
87-100
87
100
-13
H25/09
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
61-89
61
89
-28
H27/09
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
61-97
61
97
-36
H03/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
89-93
89
93
-4
H04/10
B League
Alvark
#5
L
74-90
74
90
-16
A08/10
B League
Kobe
#24
W
84-77
84
77
+7
A10/10
B League
Gunma
#9
L
61-72
61
72
-11
H12/10
B League
Levanga Hokkaido
#10
L
90-109
90
109
-19
H16/10
B League
Kyoto
#7
L
70-115
70
115
-45
A18/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-17
25-14
16-17
22-22
26-29
16-25
29-19
16-27
22-23
12-19
20-20
7-27
22-27
14-23
15-29
10-18
19-26
20-25
31-20
19-22
15-29
19-15
22-22
18-24
27-20
17-12
15-26
25-19
15-16
12-16
17-17
17-23
24-28
21-26
19-23
26-32
18-29
21-33
16-24
15-29
167.6Avg total
76.4Scored
91.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)75.293.6168.8-18.311%
Season at home (6)74.893.3168.2-18.50%
Season away (3)76.094.0170.0-18.033%
Last 10 (10)76.491.2167.6-14.820%
Last 5 (5)75.892.6168.4-16.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)77.590.4167.9-12.913%
vs Similar (6)81.882.7164.5-0.850%
vs Weaker (9)87.178.4165.6+8.778%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shimane
#18
L
64-89
64
89
-25
H23/09
B League
Shimane
#18
L
78-85
78
85
-7
H25/09
B League
Kyoto
#7
L
76-84 OT
76
84
-8
A03/10
B League
Kyoto
#7
L
65-90
65
90
-25
A04/10
B League
Shinshu
#22
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H08/10
B League
Gunma
#9
W
70-59
70
59
+11
H10/10
B League
Kobe
#24
W
85-69
85
69
+16
H12/10
B League
KCC Egis
#2
L
83-98
83
98
-15
H14/10
EASL
Tokyo Sunrockers
#8
L
63-95
63
95
-32
A17/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#23
L
65-82
65
82
-17
H19/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-17
22-28
12-22
14-22
22-23
19-17
16-27
21-18
21-10
11-16
12-25
30-23
2-21
22-20
21-31
20-18
19-22
16-24
15-10
24-15
15-16
27-19
9-10
19-14
19-13
20-13
23-26
23-17
16-26
27-17
27-28
13-27
20-30
15-22
17-18
11-25
17-15
16-27
21-18
11-22
154.5Avg total
72.3Scored
82.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)71.180.4151.6-9.333%
Season at home (6)72.775.8148.5-3.250%
Season away (3)68.089.7157.7-21.70%
Last 10 (10)72.382.2154.5-9.930%
Last 5 (5)73.280.6153.8-7.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)68.582.0150.5-13.525%
vs Similar (5)73.279.2152.4-6.040%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)88.679.5168.1+9.175%
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: -3.1-3.1Q2: -0.8-0.8Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: -4.2-4.2Q4Q4: -6.8-6.8Q4: -1.5-1.5
SagaNagasaki
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Akita
#26
W
49-31
49
31
+18
A03/05
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H25/09
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
34-42
34
42
-8
H27/09
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
36-50
36
50
-14
H03/10
B League
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
39-51
39
51
-12
H04/10
B League
Alvark
#5
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A08/10
B League
Kobe
#24
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A10/10
B League
Gunma
#9
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H12/10
B League
Levanga Hokkaido
#10
L
45-54
45
54
-9
H16/10
B League
Kyoto
#7
L
39-62
39
62
-23
A18/10
B League
84.1Avg total
38.9Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.742.585.2+0.250%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.643.985.4-2.331%-
Last 30 away (14)43.940.984.9+3.071%-
Last 10 (10)38.945.284.1-6.320%-
Last 5 (5)37.844.882.6-7.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)39.845.385.1-5.527%-
vs Similar (6)45.339.785.0+5.783%-
vs Weaker (9)45.739.885.4+5.967%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shimane
#18
L
38-45
38
45
-7
H23/09
B League
Shimane
#18
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H25/09
B League
Kyoto
#7
W
32-26
32
26
+6
A03/10
B League
Kyoto
#7
L
24-41
24
41
-17
A04/10
B League
Shinshu
#22
L
35-46
35
46
-11
H08/10
B League
Gunma
#9
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H10/10
B League
Kobe
#24
W
39-26
39
26
+13
H12/10
B League
KCC Egis
#2
D
43-43
43
43
+0
H14/10
EASL
Tokyo Sunrockers
#8
L
35-52
35
52
-17
A17/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#23
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H19/10
B League
75.8Avg total
36.2Scored
39.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.339.680.9+1.857%-
Last 30 at home (21)41.939.481.3+2.557%-
Last 30 away (9)40.039.979.9+0.156%-
Last 10 (10)36.239.675.8-3.440%-
Last 5 (5)38.439.678.0-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)33.238.571.8-5.250%-
vs Similar (5)37.239.877.0-2.640%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)43.939.583.4+4.465%-
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 76.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.8 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.517.2
48.5%
53.9%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.49.7
30.9%
32.7%29.1
🏀 Free throws16.012.5
78.1%
73.7%12.5
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 70.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.8 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.316.6
51.4%
53.9%33.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.19.2
31.6%
32.7%27.6
🏀 Free throws14.310.0
69.9%
73.7%10.0
They take 61.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Oct 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Saga
LLLWLLLLLW
Nagasaki
LLLWWWLLLL
#25
League position
#16
-17.6
Net rating
-9.4
88.7
Offensive rating
83.0
106.3
Defensive rating
92.4
47.5%
Effective FG%
49.5%
58.2%
Opp. effective FG%
48.6%
12.1%
Turnover %
16.8%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.23
30.9%
3-point %
31.6%
57.6%
Assist %
60.9%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence88.7 · 83.0Defence106.3 · 92.4Shooting47.5% · 49.5%3-point %30.9% · 31.6%Ball care12.1% · 16.8%Free throws0.24 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)20% · 30%
■ Saga   ■ Nagasaki
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Saga wins
7
Nagasaki wins
DateGameScore
11/10/25Nagasaki v Saga85-73
10/10/25Nagasaki v Saga76-67
23/04/25Nagasaki v Saga68-78
05/03/25Saga v Nagasaki86-92
02/12/24Saga v Nagasaki78-93
01/12/24Saga v Nagasaki80-51
14/04/24Saga v Nagasaki73-80
13/04/24Saga v Nagasaki61-63
20/03/24Nagasaki v Saga71-80
06/12/23Saga v Nagasaki81-91
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/10/26AKyoto70-115
16/10/26HLevanga Hokkaido90-109
12/10/26HGunma61-72
10/10/26AKobe84-77
08/10/26AAlvark74-90
04/10/26HNeoPhoenix89-93
03/10/26HNeoPhoenix61-97
27/09/26HHiroshima D.61-89
25/09/26HHiroshima D.87-100
03/05/26AAkita87-70
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/10/26HAltiri Chiba65-82
17/10/26ATokyo Sunrockers63-95
14/10/26HKCC Egis83-98
12/10/26HKobe85-69
10/10/26HGunma70-59
08/10/26HShinshu74-71
04/10/26AKyoto65-90
03/10/26AKyoto76-84 OT
25/09/26HShimane78-85
23/09/26HShimane64-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Saga
B League 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL11%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayLWL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %11%0%33%
Points / game75.274.876.0
Allowed / game93.693.394.0
Point differential-18.3-18.5-18.0
Avg total168.8168.2170.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Nagasaki
B League 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL33%
HomeLWWWL50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games963
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game71.172.768.0
Allowed / game80.475.889.7
Point differential-9.3-3.2-21.7
Avg total151.6148.5157.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %11%0%33%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Diamond Dolphins660100%90.074.8+15.2
2 Hiroshima D.880100%91.978.8+13.1
3 Alvark98189%96.683.8+12.8
4 NeoPhoenix65183%86.577.5+9.0
5 Kyoto86275%87.178.1+9.0
6 SeaHorses Mikawa75271%90.077.0+13.0
7 Tokyo Sunrockers96367%90.677.0+13.6
8 Sendai96367%85.480.2+5.2
9 Gunma96367%77.673.3+4.2
10 Levanga Hokkaido85362%99.492.6+6.8
11 Yokohama95456%81.484.1-2.7
12 Ryukyu84450%82.980.2+2.6
13 Utsunomiya Brex84450%81.279.0+2.2
14 Shimane84450%81.182.0-0.9
15 Toyama84450%82.186.8-4.6
16 Shiga83538%89.089.5-0.5
17 Akita83538%76.084.1-8.1
18 Altiri Chiba93633%78.284.2-6.0
19 Chiba93633%93.3101.2-7.9
20 Nagasaki93633%71.180.4-9.3
21 Kobe82625%76.183.9-7.8
22 Brave Thunders82625%78.186.6-8.5
23 Ibaraki Robots92722%80.981.8-0.9
24 Shinshu92722%83.488.3-4.9
25 Osaka81712%69.986.8-16.9
26 Saga91811%75.293.6-18.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Saga2015171466
Nagasaki2424171984
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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