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Sao Paulo vs Bauru Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 09 May 2025
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 85-96
24-20 17-26 19-19 25-31
Position#13
Record16-22
FormWWWLW
Points / game76.1
Allowed / game78.7
vs
Bauru 🏆
Brazil
Position#4
Record22-17
FormLWLWW
Points / game78.6
Allowed / game77.5
BrazilNBBNBB - Quarter-finals· Ginasio do Morumbi
Other2024-25
Meetings · Sao Paulo v Bauru
09 May 2025
SAO 85
BAUR96
26 Oct 2024
SAO 78
BAUR68
06 Jan 2024
SAO 89
BAUR93
17 Nov 2022
SAO 82
BAUR73
28 Apr 2022
SAO 90
BAUR65
16 Jan 2022
SAO 78
BAUR73
16 Nov 2021
SAO 79
BAUR77
08 Feb 2021
SAO 92
BAUR84
10 Mar 2020
SAO 99
BAUR64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sao Paulo winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Bauru winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
74-95
74
95
-21
49avg 69
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
65-69
65
69
-4
56avg 69
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
86-105
86
105
-19
84avg 69
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
85-86
85
86
-1
84avg 69
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
W
71-67
71
67
+4
64avg 69
H12/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
88-79
88
79
+9
86avg 69
H19/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
66-62
66
62
+4
60avg 69
H24/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
69-54
69
54
+15
70avg 69
A28/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
81-86
81
86
-5
72avg 69
A30/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
78-77 OT
78
77
+1
71avg 69
H03/05
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-28
13-24
12-27
25-16
19-19
17-23
19-16
10-11
18-17
23-28
17-30
28-30
19-25
25-27
22-16
19-18
16-11
11-16
25-16
19-24
17-27
26-21
31-10
14-21
17-15
16-16
16-16
17-15
24-13
17-9
9-12
19-20
22-19
21-20
16-20
22-27
14-19
12-18
16-11
20-14
154.3Avg total
76.3Scored
78.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)76.178.7154.7-2.642%
Season at home (19)75.976.0151.9-0.158%
Season away (19)76.281.3157.5-5.226%
Last 10 (10)76.378.0154.3-1.750%
Last 5 (5)76.471.6148.0+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)70.781.3152.0-10.614%
vs Similar (17)76.578.9155.4-2.441%
vs Weaker (5)78.078.4156.4-0.440%
This opponent (Bauru) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BauruBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBauru
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
84-67
84
67
+17
82avg 71
H29/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
89-69
89
69
+20
95avg 71
H04/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
84-88
84
88
-4
79avg 71
H13/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
75-69
75
69
+6
70avg 71
H17/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
84-85
84
85
-1
73avg 71
H19/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
77-93
77
93
-16
75avg 71
A22/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
81-63
81
63
+18
76avg 71
H25/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
60-62
60
62
-2
51avg 71
H27/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
84-54
84
54
+30
86avg 71
A30/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
85-80 OT
85
80
+5
84avg 71
H03/05
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-17
23-16
17-19
16-15
22-16
24-16
19-11
24-26
17-21
24-30
16-19
27-18
28-11
18-17
13-18
16-23
12-21
28-20
20-18
24-26
27-27
16-21
18-25
16-20
18-12
20-18
21-16
22-17
16-21
21-10
13-14
10-17
23-12
20-14
21-12
20-16
25-28
15-8
17-14
12-19
153.3Avg total
80.3Scored
73.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)78.677.5156.1+1.156%
Season at home (20)79.374.2153.6+5.075%
Season away (19)77.880.8158.7-3.037%
Last 10 (10)80.373.0153.3+7.360%
Last 5 (5)77.470.4147.8+7.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)76.889.5166.2-12.80%
vs Similar (16)75.773.9149.6+1.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (10)83.176.5159.6+6.680%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +3.9+3.9Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.0-1.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +3.0+3.0Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +3.9+3.9Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.0-1.0
Sao PauloBauru
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Uniao Corinthians
#9
L
37-52
37
52
-15
A15/03
NBB
Pato
#14
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H28/03
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A04/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A05/04
NBB
Minas
#1
D
27-27
27
27
+0
H12/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H19/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
33-31
33
31
+2
H24/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
41-22
41
22
+19
A28/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
W
43-39
43
39
+4
A30/04
NBB
Brasilia
#6
L
26-37
26
37
-11
H03/05
NBB
76.6Avg total
37.1Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.039.376.3-2.340%-
Last 30 at home (14)35.438.273.6-2.836%-
Last 30 away (16)38.440.278.6-1.844%-
Last 10 (10)37.139.576.6-2.430%-
Last 5 (5)37.235.472.6+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)33.038.471.4-5.414%-
vs Similar (17)38.438.677.0-0.353%-
vs Weaker (5)37.843.281.0-5.420%-
This opponent (Bauru) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BauruLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#15
W
51-33
51
33
+18
H29/03
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#9
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H04/04
NBB
Flamengo
#3
L
41-51
41
51
-10
H13/04
NBB
Vasco
#7
W
46-28
46
28
+18
H17/04
NBB
Botafogo
#18
L
40-41
40
41
-1
H19/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A22/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
38-30
38
30
+8
H25/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
37-31
37
31
+6
H27/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
43-26
43
26
+17
A30/04
NBB
Paulistano
#12
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H03/05
NBB
78.1Avg total
42.5Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.638.177.8+1.550%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.036.277.2+4.873%-
Last 30 away (15)38.340.178.3-1.827%-
Last 10 (10)42.535.678.1+6.970%-
Last 5 (5)40.234.274.4+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)39.050.889.8-11.80%-
vs Similar (16)38.635.874.4+2.962%-
vs Weaker ◀ (10)41.536.978.4+4.650%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 75.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.517.4
53.5%
50.9%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.68.7
31.5%
33.0%26.1
🏀 Free throws21.114.6
69.2%
72.7%14.6
They take 60.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Baurutheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bauru: 80.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.719.3
57.3%
50.9%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.08.6
31.9%
33.0%25.8
🏀 Free throws20.115.6
77.6%
72.7%15.6
They take 60.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sao Paulo
WLWWWWLLLL
Bauru
WWLWLLWLWW
#13
League position
#4
-2.4
Net rating
+11.1
100.4
Offensive rating
108.0
102.8
Defensive rating
96.9
50.7%
Effective FG%
53.0%
46.9%
Opp. effective FG%
45.7%
17.8%
Turnover %
19.6%
22.3%
Off. rebound %
29.6%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.33
31.5%
3-point %
31.9%
70.1%
Assist %
67.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence100.4 · 108.0Defence102.8 · 96.9Shooting50.7% · 53.0%3-point %31.5% · 31.9%Ball care17.8% · 19.6%Off. rebounds22.3% · 29.6%Free throws0.35 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Sao Paulo   ■ Bauru
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Sao Paulo wins
4
Bauru wins
DateGameScore
11/01/25Bauru v Sao Paulo75-73
26/10/24Sao Paulo v Bauru78-68
06/01/24Sao Paulo v Bauru89-93 OT
24/10/23Bauru v Sao Paulo87-66
02/03/23Bauru v Sao Paulo74-81
17/11/22Sao Paulo v Bauru82-73
03/05/22Bauru v Sao Paulo71-88
01/05/22Bauru v Sao Paulo62-85
28/04/22Sao Paulo v Bauru90-65
18/02/22Bauru v Sao Paulo102-87
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/05/25HBrasilia78-77 OT
30/04/25ABrasilia81-86
28/04/25ABrasilia69-54
24/04/25HBrasilia66-62
19/04/25HBrasilia88-79
12/04/25HMinas71-67
05/04/25ABotafogo85-86
04/04/25AFlamengo86-105
28/03/25HPato65-69
15/03/25AUniao Corinthians74-95
Baurulast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/05/25HPaulistano85-80 OT
30/04/25APaulistano84-54
27/04/25HPaulistano60-62
25/04/25HPaulistano81-63
22/04/25APaulistano77-93
19/04/25HBotafogo84-85
17/04/25HVasco75-69
13/04/25HFlamengo84-88
04/04/25HUniao Corinthians89-69
29/03/25HCaxias do Sul84-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW42%
HomeLWWWW58%
AwayLLLWL26%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games381919
Win %42%58%26%
Points / game76.175.976.2
Allowed / game78.776.081.3
Point differential-2.6-0.1-5.2
Avg total154.7151.9157.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%21%5%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (18)67% (9)33% (9)
Overtime %5%5%5%
Bauru
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW56%
HomeWLWLW75%
AwayWLLLW37%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392019
Win %56%75%37%
Points / game78.679.377.8
Allowed / game77.574.280.8
Point differential+1.1+5.0-3.0
Avg total156.1153.6158.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%20%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (15)56% (9)50% (6)
Overtime %8%10%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas3833587%82.570.8+11.7
2 Flamengo3829976%84.775.2+9.5
3 Franca3728976%85.475.9+9.4
4 Pinheiros39221756%76.574.2+2.4
5 Bauru39221756%78.677.5+1.1
6 Vasco39211854%77.676.9+0.6
7 Corinthians Paulista38201853%82.080.2+1.8
8 Brasilia38201853%79.979.6+0.3
9 Uniao Corinthians38191950%78.780.9-2.1
10 Sao Jose38182047%78.478.8-0.4
11 Unifacisa39182146%74.775.3-0.6
12 Paulistano39172244%76.876.4+0.5
13 Sao Paulo38162242%76.178.7-2.6
14 Pato37132435%81.384.2-2.9
15 Caxias do Sul38122632%73.681.5-7.9
16 Mogi37112630%73.781.3-7.6
17 Cearense34102429%72.178.0-5.9
18 Botafogo34102429%73.182.1-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sao Paulo2417192585
Bauru2026193196
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