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Southside W vs Adelaide Lightning W Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 30 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 08:00
Scheduled
Position#9
Record1-6
FormLLLLL
Points / game76.4
Allowed / game86.9
Southside W
Australia
vs
Adelaide Lightning W
Australia
Position#6
Record2-3
FormLLLWW
Points / game79.8
Allowed / game82.6
AustraliaNBL WRound 16· State Basketball Centre
Women2026-27
Meetings · Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W
30 Jan 2027
SOUT v ADEL
upcoming
01 Nov 2026
SOUT74
ADEL81
31 Jan 2026
SOUT82
ADEL77
17 Jan 2026
SOUT82
ADEL58
28 Dec 2025
SOUT85
ADEL72
09 Feb 2025
SOUT84
ADEL78
06 Dec 2024
SOUT71
ADEL97
24 Feb 2024
SOUT60
ADEL74
05 Nov 2022
SOUT99
ADEL91
19 Feb 2022
SOUT72
ADEL85
02 Dec 2020
SOUT111
ADEL72
18 Feb 2020
SOUT68
ADEL65
25 Jan 2020
SOUT81
ADEL69
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Southside W win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide Lightning W win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Southside WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
60-88
60
88
-28
50avg 80
A15/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
W
109-89
109
89
+20
116avg 80
H18/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
74-84
74
84
-10
66avg 80
A22/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
73-77
73
77
-4
no box
H16/10
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
W
91-77
91
77
+14
no box
H22/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#7
L
69-74
69
74
-5
no box
A24/10
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
L
74-81
74
81
-7
no box
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
69-86
69
86
-17
no box
A08/11
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
L
79-99
79
99
-20
no box
A12/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
80-114
80
114
-34
no box
H15/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
6-23
13-20
25-21
16-24
26-20
23-23
33-22
27-24
25-21
21-32
15-17
13-14
25-26
21-11
14-19
13-21
17-28
28-18
29-16
17-15
18-13
19-34
15-16
17-11
22-27
15-20
17-12
20-22
18-21
13-29
18-13
20-23
25-15
15-27
23-30
16-27
21-30
15-20
15-33
29-31
164.7Avg total
77.8Scored
86.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)76.486.9163.3-10.414%
Season at home (4)79.587.2166.8-7.825%
Season away (3)72.386.3158.7-14.00%
Last 10 (10)77.886.9164.7-9.120%
Last 5 (5)74.290.8165.0-16.60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)77.889.0166.8-11.213%
vs Similar (4)71.079.2150.2-8.20%
vs Weaker (11)83.571.7155.3+11.882%
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormW
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
L
58-82
58
82
-24
no box
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
61-67
61
67
-6
no box
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
W
85-78
85
78
+7
no box
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
77-82
77
82
-5
70avg 57
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
64-77
64
77
-13
44avg 57
H08/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
68-95
68
95
-27
no box
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
L
68-86
68
86
-18
no box
H20/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
82-90
82
90
-8
no box
H24/10
NBL W
Southside W
#9
W
81-74
81
74
+7
no box
A01/11
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
W
100-68
100
68
+32
no box
H07/11
NBL W
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
21-22
9-19
8-19
11-15
13-21
17-16
20-15
24-16
22-32
16-21
23-9
20-17
18-25
24-13
15-27
19-25
16-23
15-12
14-17
16-17
25-31
15-22
12-25
24-17
19-23
15-19
10-27
17-26
17-15
26-18
22-31
27-22
20-15
12-17
22-20
27-18
23-24
22-14
28-12
154.3Avg total
74.4Scored
79.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)79.882.6162.4-2.840%
Season at home (3)83.381.3164.7+2.033%
Season away (2)74.584.5159.0-10.050%
Last 10 (10)74.479.9154.3-5.530%
Last 5 (5)79.882.6162.4-2.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)70.185.8155.8-15.70%
vs Similar (11)81.977.5159.4+4.564%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)84.072.0156.0+12.0100%
This opponent (Southside W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -5.1-5.1Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -2.4-2.4Q4: -2.8-2.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: -5.1-5.1Q2: -3.7-3.7Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -2.4-2.4Q4: -2.8-2.8
Southside WAdelaide Lightning W
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Southside WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Townsville W
#1
L
19-43
19
43
-24
A15/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
W
49-43
49
43
+6
H18/02
NBL W
Townsville W
#1
L
46-53
46
53
-7
A22/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H16/10
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
L
45-46
45
46
-1
H22/10
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#7
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A24/10
NBL W
Adelaide Lightning W
#6
L
37-47
37
47
-10
H01/11
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
31-50
31
50
-19
A08/11
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
L
40-42
40
42
-2
A12/11
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
36-50
36
50
-14
H15/11
NBL W
84.4Avg total
38.6Scored
45.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.142.382.4-2.237%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.040.181.1+0.953%-
Last 30 away (15)39.144.583.7-5.420%-
Last 10 (10)38.645.884.4-7.220%-
Last 5 (5)36.247.283.4-11.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)37.746.784.5-9.020%-
vs Similar (4)34.039.573.5-5.50%-
vs Weaker (11)45.537.382.7+8.273%-
This opponent (Adelaide Lightning W) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Adelaide Lightning WLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southside W
#4
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A17/01
NBL W
Canberra Capitals W
#5
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H20/01
NBL W
Geelong Venom W
#6
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A24/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
38-42
38
42
-4
A31/01
NBL W
Southside W
#4
L
35-48
35
48
-13
H08/02
NBL W
Sydney W
#3
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A18/10
NBL W
Townsville W
#2
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H20/10
NBL W
Perth Lynx W
#1
L
34-41
34
41
-7
H24/10
NBL W
Southside W
#9
W
47-37
47
37
+10
A01/11
NBL W
Tasmania Jewels W
#5
W
50-42
50
42
+8
H07/11
NBL W
82.5Avg total
39.9Scored
42.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.143.683.7-3.530%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.443.382.7-3.940%-
Last 30 away (15)40.943.984.8-3.120%-
Last 10 (10)39.942.682.5-2.730%-
Last 5 (5)43.041.684.6+1.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)37.745.182.8-7.412%-
vs Similar (11)43.141.684.7+1.555%-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)44.541.586.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Southside W) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Southside Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Southside W: 80.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.422.2
55.0%
47.8%44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.38.3
35.6%
32.8%24.9
🏀 Free throws16.310.8
66.3%
73.3%10.8
They take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaide Lightning Wtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide Lightning W: 72.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 76.9 points a game
51%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.417.2
46.0%
47.8%34.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.39.5
33.6%
32.8%28.5
🏀 Free throws11.89.3
78.8%
73.3%9.3
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Southside W
LLLLLWLLWL
Adelaide Lightning W
WWLLLLLWLL
#9
League position
#6
-5.9
Net rating
-10.8
92.4
Offensive rating
87.2
98.3
Defensive rating
98.0
54.4%
Effective FG%
47.9%
53.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.2%
17.9%
Turnover %
18.7%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.18
35.6%
3-point %
33.6%
74.8%
Assist %
66.3%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence92.4 · 87.2Defence98.3 · 98.0Shooting54.4% · 47.9%3-point %35.6% · 33.6%Ball care17.9% · 18.7%Off. rebounds- · 24.7%Free throws0.26 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)20% · 30%
■ Southside W   ■ Adelaide Lightning W
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Southside W wins
4
Adelaide Lightning W wins
DateGameScore
01/11/26Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W74-81
08/02/26Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W64-77
31/01/26Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W82-77
17/01/26Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W82-58
28/12/25Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W85-72
09/02/25Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W84-78
20/12/24Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W82-72
06/12/24Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W71-97
24/02/24Southside W v Adelaide Lightning W60-74
30/12/23Adelaide Lightning W v Southside W62-87
Southside Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HPerth Lynx W80-114
12/11/26ATasmania Jewels W79-99
08/11/26ASydney W69-86
01/11/26HAdelaide Lightning W74-81
24/10/26AGeelong Venom W69-74
22/10/26HTasmania Jewels W91-77
16/10/26HSydney W73-77
22/02/26ATownsville W74-84
18/02/26HTownsville W109-89
15/02/26ATownsville W60-88
Adelaide Lightning Wlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/11/26HTasmania Jewels W100-68
01/11/26ASouthside W81-74
24/10/26HPerth Lynx W82-90
20/10/26HTownsville W68-86
18/10/26ASydney W68-95
08/02/26HSouthside W64-77
31/01/26ASouthside W77-82
24/01/26AGeelong Venom W85-78
20/01/26HCanberra Capitals W61-67
17/01/26ASouthside W58-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Southside W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL14%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %14%25%0%
Points / game76.479.572.3
Allowed / game86.987.286.3
Point differential-10.4-7.8-14.0
Avg total163.3166.8158.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide Lightning W
NBL W 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW40%
HomeLLW33%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %40%33%50%
Points / game79.883.374.5
Allowed / game82.681.384.5
Point differential-2.8+2.0-10.0
Avg total162.4164.7159.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Perth Lynx W65183%94.284.0+10.2
2 Townsville W75271%85.977.6+8.3
3 Sydney W75271%83.678.1+5.4
4 Canberra Capitals W53260%83.282.0+1.2
5 Tasmania Jewels W53260%88.089.0-1.0
6 Adelaide Lightning W52340%79.882.6-2.8
7 Geelong Venom W62433%75.382.3-7.0
8 Bendigo W61517%82.387.2-4.8
9 Southside W71614%76.486.9-10.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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