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Texas State vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 01 Feb 2025
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 74-85
33-39 41-46
Position#207
Record12-10
FormWWWLL
Points / game76.8
Allowed / game72.0
vs
Position#54
Record17-5
FormWWWWW
Points / game78.6
Allowed / game69.1
USANCAA
Other2024-25
Meetings · Texas State v Arkansas State
17 Dec 2025
TEXA70
ARKA89
01 Feb 2025
TEXA74
ARKA85
20 Jan 2024
TEXA72
ARKA79
09 Feb 2023
TEXA66
ARKA62
17 Feb 2022
TEXA84
ARKA67
09 Jan 2021
TEXA v ARKA
upcoming
08 Jan 2021
TEXA v ARKA
upcoming
15 Feb 2020
TEXA69
ARKA64
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#277
L
72-80
72
80
-8
H29/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
71-77
71
77
-6
A03/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
L
61-72
61
72
-11
A04/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
W
74-73
74
73
+1
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
L
88-92 OT
88
92
-4
A11/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
94-80
94
80
+14
H16/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
85-82 OT
85
82
+3
H18/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
89-74
89
74
+15
A23/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#54
L
65-80
65
80
-15
A25/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
L
61-70
61
70
-9
H31/01
NCAA
1H
2H
39-32
33-48
25-37
46-40
30-38
31-34
32-41
42-32
30-45
46-31
46-35
48-45
39-39
38-38
38-33
51-41
34-36
31-44
27-33
34-37
154.0Avg total
76.0Scored
78.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)76.872.0148.8+4.755%
Season at home (11)79.567.4146.9+12.273%
Season away (11)74.076.7150.7-2.736%
Last 10 (10)76.078.0154.0-2.040%
Last 5 (5)78.877.2156.0+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)71.875.8147.7-4.050%
vs Similar (11)71.970.7142.6+1.255%
vs Weaker (13)82.770.2152.8+12.569%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Coastal Carolina
#326
W
97-67
97
67
+30
H21/12
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
78-59
78
59
+19
A03/01
NCAA
James Madison
#110
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A04/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
62-76
62
76
-14
A10/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
W
84-78
84
78
+6
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H17/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
85-59
85
59
+26
H18/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H24/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
80-65
80
65
+15
H25/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
W
81-68
81
68
+13
A30/01
NCAA
1H
2H
53-22
44-45
32-29
46-30
39-33
23-34
31-41
31-35
34-43
50-35
44-24
39-39
44-19
41-40
30-25
35-30
36-34
44-31
37-41
44-27
143.4Avg total
77.7Scored
65.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)78.669.1147.7+9.577%
Season at home (13)78.064.8142.8+13.285%
Season away (9)79.475.3154.8+4.167%
Last 10 (10)77.765.7143.4+12.080%
Last 5 (5)78.862.0140.8+16.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)65.078.7143.7-13.733%
vs Similar (8)82.177.6159.8+4.562%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)75.564.9140.4+10.682%
This opponent (Texas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: -2.9-2.91st half: +6.9+6.92nd half2nd half: +1.0+1.02nd half: +5.1+5.1
-9-4+0+4+91st half1st half: -2.9-2.91st half: +6.9+6.92nd half2nd half: +1.0+1.02nd half: +5.1+5.1
Texas StateArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#277
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H29/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
L
25-37
25
37
-12
A03/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
L
30-38
30
38
-8
A04/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
32-41
32
41
-9
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
L
30-45
30
45
-15
A11/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
46-35
46
35
+11
H16/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H18/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A23/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#54
L
34-36
34
36
-2
A25/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
L
27-33
27
33
-6
H31/01
NCAA
70.9Avg total
34.0Scored
36.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.634.168.6+0.547%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.332.469.7+4.964%-
Last 30 away (16)32.235.567.7-3.331%-
Last 10 (10)34.036.970.9-2.930%-
Last 5 (5)36.835.272.0+1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)30.337.868.2-7.517%-
vs Similar (11)33.033.566.5-0.545%-
vs Weaker (13)37.832.870.7+5.062%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Coastal Carolina
#326
W
53-22
53
22
+31
H21/12
NCAA
Old Dominion
#261
W
32-29
32
29
+3
A03/01
NCAA
James Madison
#110
W
39-33
39
33
+6
A04/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#83
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A10/01
NCAA
Troy
#68
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A11/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#314
W
44-24
44
24
+20
H17/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#274
W
44-19
44
19
+25
H18/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#157
W
30-25
30
25
+5
H24/01
NCAA
Texas State
#207
W
36-34
36
34
+2
H25/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#324
L
37-41
37
41
-4
A30/01
NCAA
69.1Avg total
38.0Scored
31.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.833.070.8+4.863%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.129.868.8+9.375%-
Last 30 away (14)36.436.873.1-0.450%-
Last 10 (10)38.031.169.1+6.970%-
Last 5 (5)38.228.666.8+9.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)33.338.071.3-4.733%-
vs Similar (8)37.839.877.5-2.038%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)37.529.466.9+8.176%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Texas State wins
4
Arkansas State wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/01/25HLouisiana Lafayette61-70
25/01/25AArkansas State65-80
23/01/25ALouisiana Lafayette89-74
18/01/25HSouthern Miss85-82 OT
16/01/25HGeorgia State94-80
11/01/25ASouthern Miss88-92 OT
10/01/25ATroy74-73
04/01/25AAppalachian State61-72
03/01/25AMarshall71-77
29/12/24HUT Arlington72-80
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/01/25ASouthern Miss81-68
25/01/25HTexas State80-65
24/01/25HAppalachian State65-55
18/01/25HGeorgia State85-59
17/01/25HLouisiana Lafayette83-63
11/01/25ATroy84-78
10/01/25ASouth Alabama62-76
04/01/25AJames Madison62-67
03/01/25AOld Dominion78-59
21/12/24HCoastal Carolina97-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL55%
HomeWLWWL73%
AwayLWLWL36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %55%73%36%
Points / game76.879.574.0
Allowed / game72.067.476.7
Point differential+4.7+12.2-2.7
Avg total148.8146.9150.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%45%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)100% (1)50% (4)
Overtime %9%9%9%
Arkansas State
NCAA 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW77%
HomeWWWWW85%
AwayWLLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22139
Win %77%85%67%
Points / game78.678.079.4
Allowed / game69.164.875.3
Point differential+9.5+13.2+4.1
Avg total147.7142.8154.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%62%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)75% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %9%8%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State2217577%78.669.1+9.5
2 Troy2215768%73.965.2+8.7
3 South Alabama2214864%72.062.5+9.5
4 James Madison2314961%73.168.8+4.3
5 Appalachian State2213959%69.663.5+6.1
6 Marshall24141058%75.571.3+4.1
7 Texas State22121055%76.872.0+4.7
8 Georgia Southern23111248%73.977.3-3.4
9 Southern Miss23101343%72.675.7-3.1
10 Old Dominion23101343%67.771.6-4.0
11 Coastal Carolina2381535%67.470.6-3.2
12 Georgia State2381535%73.580.2-6.7
13 Louisiana Lafayette2271532%66.274.8-8.6
14 Louisiana Monroe2461825%68.872.8-4.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Texas State334174
Arkansas State394685
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