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Troy vs Arkansas State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 21:30
Final 99-74
44-35 55-39
Position#84
Record12-6
FormWWLWW
Points / game86.2
Allowed / game76.3
Troy 🏆
USA
vs
Arkansas State
USA
Position#98
Record12-6
FormWLWWL
Points / game83.5
Allowed / game78.7
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Troy v Arkansas State
30 Jan 2027
TROY v ARKA
upcoming
17 Jan 2026
TROY99
ARKA74
10 Mar 2025
TROY94
ARKA81
11 Jan 2025
TROY78
ARKA84
15 Feb 2024
TROY71
ARKA82
02 Mar 2023
TROY63
ARKA59
07 Jan 2023
TROY66
ARKA54
10 Feb 2022
TROY79
ARKA77
25 Jan 2020
TROY62
ARKA78
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Troy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Arkansas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A26/11
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
L
89-93 OT
89
93
-4
H02/12
NCAA
La Grange
#604
W
101-47
101
47
+54
H06/12
NCAA
UAB
#99
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A14/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
70-63
70
63
+7
H20/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
100-80
100
80
+20
H31/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H03/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
74-86
74
86
-12
A08/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
90-70
90
70
+20
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
91-65
91
65
+26
H15/01
NCAA
1H
2H
28-33
46-31
28-27
37-38
60-17
41-30
35-39
51-46
36-32
34-31
45-33
55-47
30-23
29-26
32-45
42-41
53-35
37-35
42-26
49-39
153.6Avg total
83.4Scored
70.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)86.276.3162.5+9.967%
Season at home (8)87.466.0153.4+21.475%
Season away (10)85.384.5169.8+0.860%
Last 10 (10)83.470.2153.6+13.280%
Last 5 (5)82.870.0152.8+12.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)77.176.6153.7+0.464%
vs Weaker (15)81.469.6151.0+11.867%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#150
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
90-78
90
78
+12
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
76-77
76
77
-1
A13/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
89-70
89
70
+19
A18/12
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
93-86
93
86
+7
A20/12
NCAA
Arkansas Tech
#580
W
107-63
107
63
+44
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H03/01
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
86-74
86
74
+12
H08/01
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
83-82
83
82
+1
H10/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
87-91 OT
87
91
-4
A16/01
NCAA
1H
2H
39-21
44-42
46-39
44-39
35-33
41-44
41-32
48-38
39-32
54-54
51-25
56-38
34-39
40-39
45-32
41-42
43-37
40-45
36-32
45-49
163.0Avg total
86.8Scored
76.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)83.578.7162.2+4.867%
Season at home (8)85.971.2157.1+14.688%
Season away (10)81.684.7166.3-3.150%
Last 10 (10)86.876.2163.0+10.670%
Last 5 (5)87.477.6165.0+9.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.085.0159.0-11.033%
vs Similar ◀ (12)77.276.2153.5+1.050%
vs Weaker (12)85.174.7159.8+10.475%
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +7.9+7.91st half: +8.7+8.72nd half2nd half: +5.7+5.72nd half: +2.3+2.3
-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +7.9+7.91st half: +8.7+8.72nd half2nd half: +5.7+5.72nd half: +2.3+2.3
TroyArkansas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
St. Francis (PA)
#359
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A26/11
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
W
28-27
28
27
+1
H02/12
NCAA
La Grange
#604
W
60-17
60
17
+43
H06/12
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A14/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H20/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H31/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
30-23
30
23
+7
H03/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A08/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
53-35
53
35
+18
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H15/01
NCAA
69.9Avg total
38.9Scored
31.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.731.067.7+5.653%-
Last 30 at home (12)40.228.268.3+12.083%-
Last 30 away (18)34.332.967.3+1.433%-
Last 10 (10)38.931.069.9+7.970%-
Last 5 (5)40.432.472.8+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)34.433.467.9+1.043%-
vs Weaker (15)37.429.166.5+8.360%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
UT Arlington
#150
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A13/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A18/12
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A20/12
NCAA
Arkansas Tech
#580
W
51-25
51
25
+26
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H03/01
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H08/01
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H10/01
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
36-32
36
32
+4
A16/01
NCAA
73.1Avg total
40.9Scored
32.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.434.674.0+4.873%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.631.673.2+10.186%-
Last 30 away (16)37.437.374.8+0.162%-
Last 10 (10)40.932.273.1+8.790%-
Last 5 (5)41.833.074.8+8.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.342.779.0-6.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)37.233.570.7+3.783%-
vs Weaker (12)40.134.975.0+5.267%-
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Troy wins
4
Arkansas State wins
DateGameScore
08/01/26Arkansas State v Troy86-74
10/03/25Troy v Arkansas State94-81
16/02/25Arkansas State v Troy70-71
11/01/25Troy v Arkansas State78-84
23/02/24Arkansas State v Troy79-71
16/02/24Troy v Arkansas State71-82
02/03/23Troy v Arkansas State63-59
17/02/23Arkansas State v Troy62-67
07/01/23Troy v Arkansas State66-54
11/02/22Troy v Arkansas State79-77
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/01/26HSouthern Miss91-65
10/01/26ALouisiana Lafayette90-70
08/01/26AArkansas State74-86
03/01/26HSouth Alabama59-49
31/12/25HTexas State100-80
20/12/25HMarshall70-63
14/12/25AUAB86-85
06/12/25HLa Grange101-47
02/12/25HWest Georgia89-93 OT
26/11/25ASt. Francis (PA)74-64
Arkansas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/01/26ASouth Alabama87-91 OT
10/01/26HTexas State83-82
08/01/26HTroy86-74
03/01/26HJames Madison74-78
31/12/25HArkansas Tech107-63
20/12/25ASouthern Miss93-86
18/12/25ATexas State89-70
13/12/25ARice76-77
07/12/25AUALR90-78
03/12/25HUT Arlington83-63

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Troy
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW67%
HomeWWWWW75%
AwayLWWLW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %67%75%60%
Points / game86.287.485.3
Allowed / game76.366.084.5
Point differential+9.9+21.4+0.8
Avg total162.5153.4169.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)0% (1)75% (4)
Overtime %22%12%30%
Arkansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL67%
HomeWWLWW88%
AwayWLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %67%88%50%
Points / game83.585.981.6
Allowed / game78.771.284.7
Point differential+4.8+14.6-3.1
Avg total162.2157.1166.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)67% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %11%12%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Troy1812667%86.276.3+9.9
2 Arkansas State1812667%83.578.7+4.8
3 Georgia Southern2013765%83.480.0+3.5
4 Marshall1912763%79.575.6+3.9
5 South Alabama1911858%73.368.6+4.7
6 Southern Miss1911858%75.473.4+2.0
7 Appalachian State2011955%72.867.0+5.8
8 Coastal Carolina2011955%73.472.5+0.8
9 Texas State1910953%74.171.2+2.8
10 James Madison1991047%74.276.7-2.6
11 Georgia State1971237%70.673.9-3.3
12 Old Dominion2061430%74.077.3-3.3
13 Louisiana Lafayette2051525%60.269.0-8.8
14 Louisiana Monroe1931616%72.882.3-9.5
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Troy445599
Arkansas State353974
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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