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Ukmerges Stekas vs Neptunas 2 Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 03 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Projected 74-85
Projected total 159.0
Final 64-87
9-20 21-23 16-21 18-23
Position#14
Record3-6
FormLLLWL
Points / game81.9
Allowed / game90.8
Ukmerges Stekas
Lithuania
Vs
18%
82%
■ UKME 18%■ NEPT 82%
Pythia win probability
Neptunas 2 🏆
Lithuania
Position#6
Record6-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game77.0
Allowed / game74.2
LithuaniaNKLRound 10· Ukmerges technologiju ir verslo mokykla
Other2026-27
Meetings · Ukmerges Stekas v Neptunas 2
03 Nov 2026
UKME64
NEPT87
11 Oct 2025
UKME70
NEPT91
20 Feb 2025
UKME84
NEPT77
11 Jan 2025
UKME91
NEPT74
01 Feb 2024
UKME79
NEPT75
09 Dec 2023
UKME78
NEPT64
26 Jan 2023
UKME102
NEPT65
12 Nov 2022
UKME83
NEPT71
Sections
Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Ukmerges Stekas will host Neptunas 2 on 3 November 2026 in the NKL, with the model pointing to Neptunas 2 as the favourite because their 6-3 record and 77.0 points per game contrast sharply with Ukmerges Stekas' 3-6 record and 81.9 points per game; the model gives Neptunas 2 an 82% chance of winning versus Ukmerges Stekas' 18%. Ukmerges Stekas have won 3 of 9 games overall, allowing 90.8 points per game, and have a 2-3 home record with 84.0 points per game; their last five games yielded only one win, including a 76-97 loss to Kedainiai BC away, a 74-70 win over Mazeikiai at home, and a 70-104 defeat to Telsiai away. Neptunas 2 have won 6 of 9 games overall, conceding 74.2 points per game, and boast a 3-1 road record with 84.8 points per game; their last five games include four wins, such as a 59-57 home victory over Plunges Olimpas, a 74-62 away win over Rytas 2, and a 78-77 home win over BC Olimpas Palanga. The teams have split their ten previous meetings, with Neptunas 2's most recent win being 77-70 on 19 February 2026. Pythia projects a 74-85 score, a 159.0 total, and gives Neptunas 2 an 82% win probability, while Ukmerges Stekas has an 18% chance; the model also estimates a 3% overtime probability.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ukmerges Stekas winLost
18.0%fair 5.55
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Neptunas 2 winWon
82.0%fair 1.22
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 02 Nov 07:08 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Ukmerges StekasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormStekas
Date
Competition
Kretinga
#9
L
103-107 OT
103
107
-4
89avg 72
H14/03
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
89-90 OT
89
90
-1
81avg 72
H01/10
NKL
Silute
#7
L
72-80
72
80
-8
61avg 72
A03/10
NKL
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#11
W
108-87
108
87
+21
104avg 72
H08/10
NKL
Kretinga
#16
W
99-95
99
95
+4
97avg 72
A10/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
L
73-87
73
87
-14
55avg 72
H15/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
76-107
76
107
-31
67avg 72
H17/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
70-104
70
104
-34
62avg 72
A22/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
W
74-70
74
70
+4
71avg 72
H24/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#13
L
76-97
76
97
-21
62avg 72
A29/10
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-17
21-28
21-21
29-24
25-22
21-17
17-23
17-18
21-17
17-21
19-17
15-25
25-23
31-20
30-28
22-16
19-25
22-20
27-20
31-30
25-27
18-25
14-16
16-19
13-30
27-27
21-26
15-24
16-31
20-27
18-21
16-25
14-19
17-17
18-17
25-17
20-32
14-27
19-20
23-18
176.4Avg total
84.0Scored
92.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)81.990.8172.7-8.933%
Season at home (5)84.088.2172.2-4.240%
Season away (4)79.294.0173.2-14.825%
Last 10 (10)84.092.4176.4-8.430%
Last 5 (5)73.893.0166.8-19.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)80.090.7170.7-10.820%
vs Similar (5)80.689.2169.8-8.640%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Neptunas 2LithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 Form2
Date
Competition
Suduva-Mantinga
#1
L
68-76
68
76
-8
58avg 71
A09/05
NKL
Kretinga
#16
W
91-76
91
76
+15
78avg 71
A01/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
L
72-76
72
76
-4
56avg 71
H03/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
84-88
84
88
-4
71avg 71
A06/10
NKL
Silute
#7
W
73-70
73
70
+3
69avg 71
H10/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
72-85
72
85
-13
62avg 71
H15/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
W
90-77
90
77
+13
86avg 71
A17/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
W
78-77
78
77
+1
75avg 71
H22/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
74-62
74
62
+12
69avg 71
A24/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#9
W
59-57
59
57
+2
42avg 71
H29/10
NKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-14
19-18
14-24
17-20
19-21
31-21
27-17
14-17
21-21
23-19
16-18
12-18
17-26
24-16
23-26
20-20
18-13
15-20
26-20
14-17
10-18
21-23
22-20
19-24
27-24
25-24
23-16
15-13
22-17
31-17
14-23
11-20
23-18
15-16
18-16
18-12
13-17
19-19
10-11
17-10
150.5Avg total
76.1Scored
74.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)77.074.2151.2+2.867%
Season at home (5)70.873.0143.8-2.260%
Season away (4)84.875.8160.5+9.075%
Last 10 (10)76.174.4150.5+1.760%
Last 5 (5)74.671.6146.2+3.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)72.074.1146.1-2.143%
vs Similar (12)78.676.5155.1+2.167%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)84.073.7157.7+10.382%
This opponent (Ukmerges Stekas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 161.5Actual: Under 161.5
Over 161.5
43.5%
Under 161.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 166.5Actual: Under 166.5
Over 166.5
32.0%
Under 166.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 171.5Actual: Under 171.5
Over 171.5
22.1%
Under 171.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Ukmerges Stekas total 80.5Actual: Ukmerges Stekas under 80.5
Over 80.5
26.9%
Under 80.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ukmerges Stekas total 84.5Actual: Ukmerges Stekas under 84.5
Over 84.5
16.1%
Under 84.5
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ukmerges Stekas total 88.5Actual: Ukmerges Stekas under 88.5
Over 88.5
8.7%
Under 88.5
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptunas 2 total 78Actual: Neptunas 2 over 78
Over 78
75.7%
Under 78
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptunas 2 total 82Actual: Neptunas 2 over 82
Over 82
61.2%
Under 82
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptunas 2 total 86Actual: Neptunas 2 over 86
Over 86
44.7%
Under 86
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Ukmerges Stekas -3Actual: Neptunas 2 +3
UKME -3
12.6%
NEPT +3
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
UKME
No market prices yet.
NEPT
No market prices yet.
Spread Ukmerges Stekas 0Actual: Neptunas 2 0
UKME 0
18.0%
NEPT 0
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
UKME
No market prices yet.
NEPT
No market prices yet.
Spread Ukmerges Stekas +3Actual: Neptunas 2 -3
UKME +3
23.9%
NEPT -3
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
UKME
No market prices yet.
NEPT
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.6-4.6Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: -1.4-1.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.6-4.6Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -0.5-0.5Q3: +0.2+0.2Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: -1.4-1.4
Ukmerges StekasNeptunas 2
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Ukmerges StekasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kretinga
#9
L
40-45
40
45
-5
H14/03
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
W
46-39
46
39
+7
H01/10
NKL
Silute
#7
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A03/10
NKL
Zalgiris Kaunas 2
#11
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H08/10
NKL
Kretinga
#16
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A10/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
L
43-52
43
52
-9
H15/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
L
40-57
40
57
-17
H17/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
36-58
36
58
-22
A22/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H24/10
NKL
Kedainiai BC
#13
L
34-59
34
59
-25
A29/10
NKL
87.7Avg total
40.5Scored
47.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.545.783.2-8.313%-
Last 30 at home (16)36.644.481.0-7.919%-
Last 30 away (14)38.547.285.7-8.77%-
Last 10 (10)40.547.287.7-6.720%-
Last 5 (5)36.852.489.2-15.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)37.445.482.8-7.916%-
vs Similar (5)37.647.685.2-10.00%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Neptunas 2) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Neptunas 2Last 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Suduva-Mantinga
#1
W
37-32
37
32
+5
A09/05
NKL
Kretinga
#16
W
50-42
50
42
+8
A01/10
NKL
Omega-Tauras
#8
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H03/10
NKL
Vytis VDU
#5
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A06/10
NKL
Silute
#7
D
33-33
33
33
+0
H10/10
NKL
Telsiai
#1
L
31-41
31
41
-10
H15/10
NKL
Mazeikiai
#15
W
52-48
52
48
+4
A17/10
NKL
BC Olimpas Palanga
#3
W
53-34
53
34
+19
H22/10
NKL
Rytas 2
#18
W
38-34
38
34
+4
A24/10
NKL
Plunges Olimpas
#9
L
32-36
32
36
-4
H29/10
NKL
79.3Avg total
41.1Scored
38.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.337.678.9+3.777%-
Last 30 at home (13)42.238.180.3+4.262%-
Last 30 away (17)40.537.277.8+3.388%-
Last 10 (10)41.138.279.3+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)41.238.679.8+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)36.936.473.3+0.457%-
vs Similar (12)42.338.280.6+4.175%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)42.937.680.5+5.391%-
This opponent (Ukmerges Stekas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Ukmerges Stekastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Ukmerges Stekas: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.521.5
51.8%
54.5%43.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.29.3
31.8%
31.3%27.9
🏀 Free throws19.413.1
67.5%
67.1%13.1
They take 70.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neptunas 2their own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas 2: 75.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.2 points a game
54%
29%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.018.4
52.6%
54.5%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.38.3
28.3%
31.3%24.9
🏀 Free throws19.814.1
71.2%
67.1%14.1
They take 64.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Ukmerges Stekas
LWLLLWWLLL
Neptunas 2
WWWWLWLLWL
#14
League position
#6
-9.0
Net rating
+1.8
90.1
Offensive rating
89.8
99.1
Defensive rating
88.0
50.1%
Effective FG%
48.0%
56.6%
Opp. effective FG%
48.3%
15.0%
Turnover %
12.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.31
31.8%
3-point %
28.3%
64.6%
Assist %
60.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence90.1 · 89.8Defence99.1 · 88.0Shooting50.1% · 48.0%3-point %31.8% · 28.3%Ball care15.0% · 12.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)30% · 60%
■ Ukmerges Stekas   ■ Neptunas 2
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Ukmerges Stekas wins
5
Neptunas 2 wins
DateGameScore
19/02/26Neptunas 2 v Ukmerges Stekas77-70
13/12/25Neptunas 2 v Ukmerges Stekas92-93 OT
11/10/25Ukmerges Stekas v Neptunas 270-91
20/02/25Ukmerges Stekas v Neptunas 284-77
11/01/25Ukmerges Stekas v Neptunas 291-74
12/10/24Neptunas 2 v Ukmerges Stekas85-67
24/02/24Neptunas 2 v Ukmerges Stekas78-75
01/02/24Ukmerges Stekas v Neptunas 279-75
09/12/23Ukmerges Stekas v Neptunas 278-64
19/10/23Neptunas 2 v Ukmerges Stekas72-67
Ukmerges Stekaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/26AKedainiai BC76-97
24/10/26HMazeikiai74-70
22/10/26ATelsiai70-104
17/10/26HBC Olimpas Palanga76-107
15/10/26HOmega-Tauras73-87
10/10/26AKretinga99-95
08/10/26HZalgiris Kaunas 2108-87
03/10/26ASilute72-80
01/10/26HVytis VDU89-90 OT
14/03/26HKretinga103-107 OT
Neptunas 2last 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/10/26HPlunges Olimpas59-57
24/10/26ARytas 274-62
22/10/26HBC Olimpas Palanga78-77
17/10/26AMazeikiai90-77
15/10/26HTelsiai72-85
10/10/26HSilute73-70
06/10/26AVytis VDU84-88
03/10/26HOmega-Tauras72-76
01/10/26AKretinga91-76
09/05/26ASuduva-Mantinga68-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Ukmerges Stekas
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL33%
HomeLWLLW40%
AwayLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %33%40%25%
Points / game81.984.079.2
Allowed / game90.888.294.0
Point differential-8.9-4.2-14.8
Avg total172.7172.2173.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %11%20%0%
Neptunas 2
NKL 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW67%
HomeLWLWW60%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %67%60%75%
Points / game77.070.884.8
Allowed / game74.273.075.8
Point differential+2.8-2.2+9.0
Avg total151.2143.8160.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)75% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Telsiai10100100%88.272.5+15.7
2 Jurbarkas98189%88.174.1+14.0
3 BC Olimpas Palanga108280%93.080.6+12.4
4 Silute97278%84.378.0+6.3
5 Suduva-Mantinga96367%92.879.9+12.9
6 Neptunas 296367%77.074.2+2.8
7 Vytis VDU85362%95.691.1+4.5
8 Omega-Tauras106460%87.082.4+4.6
9 Plunges Olimpas106460%81.478.1+3.3
10 Alytaus Patriotai105550%86.188.2-2.1
11 Zalgiris Kaunas 2104640%95.797.1-1.4
12 Vilkaviskis104640%81.486.9-5.5
13 Kedainiai BC104640%76.883.8-7.0
14 Ukmerges Stekas93633%81.990.8-8.9
15 Kretinga102820%79.788.1-8.4
16 Mazeikiai102820%76.586.5-10.0
17 Rytas 2100100%75.187.3-12.2
18 Kauno Atletas9090%77.396.7-19.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Ukmerges Stekas921161864
Neptunas 22023212387
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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