PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Valencia vs Breogan Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 22 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 16:00
Projected 107-95
Projected total 202.1
Scheduled
Position#3
Record5-2
FormLWWWW
Points / game99.1
Allowed / game88.0
Vs
86%
14%
■ VAL 86%■ BRE 14%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
4.6/10
Around normal
Position#6
Record5-3
FormLLWLW
Points / game104.8
Allowed / game100.1
SpainACBRound 9· Roig Arena
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Valencia v Breogan
22 Nov 2026
VAL v BRE
upcoming
05 Apr 2026
VAL105
BRE88
30 May 2025
VAL108
BRE61
14 Jan 2024
VAL88
BRE80
24 May 2023
VAL77
BRE80
19 Dec 2021
VAL97
BRE98
04 May 2019
VAL83
BRE82
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Valencia host Breogan in the Liga ACB. Pythia makes Valencia the favourite at 86% and projects 107-95, about 202 points in all. Overtime chance: 3%. Valencia are 5-2 this season (99.1 scored, 88.0 allowed a game), form LWWWW; Breogan are 5-3 this season (104.8 scored, 100.1 allowed a game), form LLWLW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valencia win
86.1%fair 1.16
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Breogan win
13.9%fair 7.21
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 12 Nov 21:00 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

ValenciaSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormValencia
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
88-91
88
91
-3
79avg 93
H15/10
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
116-93
116
93
+23
113avg 93
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#14
W
104-93
104
93
+11
98avg 93
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#4
W
84-75
84
75
+9
69avg 93
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
86-78
86
78
+8
73avg 93
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#4
L
94-98
94
98
-4
86avg 93
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
W
111-79
111
79
+32
107avg 93
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
84-73
84
73
+11
no box
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
100-93
100
93
+7
no box
A08/11
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
102-87
102
87
+15
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-31
25-19
24-21
16-20
25-14
33-22
28-24
30-33
32-26
25-28
26-16
21-23
27-19
14-16
18-18
25-22
19-9
17-16
24-21
26-32
25-30
17-14
26-25
26-29
20-21
26-18
31-29
34-11
24-15
16-22
11-22
33-14
22-27
19-25
30-20
29-21
29-19
23-22
21-24
29-22
182.9Avg total
96.9Scored
86.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)99.188.0187.1+11.171%
Season at home (3)100.091.0191.0+9.067%
Season away (4)98.585.8184.2+12.875%
Last 10 (10)96.986.0182.9+10.980%
Last 5 (5)98.286.0184.2+12.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)89.085.0174.0+4.067%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)98.887.2186.0+11.681%
This opponent (Breogan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BreoganSpainLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBreogan
Date
Competition
Manchester Basketball
#31
W
105-84
105
84
+21
100avg 90
A17/09
Champions League
Dziki Warszawa
#9
L
110-113
110
113
-3
106avg 90
A19/09
Champions League
Joventut Badalona
#14
W
110-104
110
104
+6
106avg 90
H27/09
ACB
Manresa
#17
W
101-95
101
95
+6
95avg 90
A03/10
ACB
Basquet Girona
#9
W
115-92
115
92
+23
114avg 90
H10/10
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
L
102-108
102
108
-6
92avg 90
A17/10
ACB
Unicaja
#10
L
90-103
90
103
-13
86avg 90
H25/10
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#12
W
110-90
110
90
+20
107avg 90
A01/11
ACB
Barcelona
#5
L
91-99
91
99
-8
no box
A08/11
ACB
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
119-110
119
110
+9
no box
H14/11
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-14
29-19
20-21
31-30
25-26
21-32
29-37
35-18
29-28
27-21
19-22
35-33
24-27
27-13
38-27
12-28
30-22
31-19
23-23
31-28
31-17
22-26
25-33
24-32
24-26
23-33
24-23
19-21
20-22
30-21
32-19
28-28
20-23
20-16
30-30
21-30
19-27
28-11
41-42
31-30
205.1Avg total
105.3Scored
99.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)104.8100.1204.9+4.662%
Season at home (4)108.5102.2210.8+6.275%
Season away (4)101.098.0199.0+3.050%
Last 10 (10)105.399.8205.1+5.560%
Last 5 (5)102.4102.0204.4+0.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)89.1102.6191.7-13.429%
vs Similar (11)91.392.4183.6-1.145%
vs Weaker (11)105.794.7200.5+11.073%
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%6%9%13%1%1601%1652%1703%1755%1808%18510%19011%19513%20011%20510%2108%2156%2204%2252%2301%2351%2400%2450%250
1%1602%1705%18010%19013%20010%2106%2202%2301%2400%250
Pythia expects about 202 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 200-204 (13%).
Over/Under 177
Over 177
93.9%
Under 177
6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 182
Over 182
89.2%
Under 182
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 187
Over 187
82.2%
Under 187
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Valencia total 89
Over 89
96.6%
Under 89
3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia total 93
Over 93
92.5%
Under 93
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Valencia total 97
Over 97
85.2%
Under 97
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breogan total 85
Over 85
83.6%
Under 85
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breogan total 89
Over 89
71.4%
Under 89
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Breogan total 93
Over 93
56.1%
Under 93
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%9%0%-211%-181%-152%-123%-94%-65%-34%+08%+39%+69%+99%+129%+158%+187%+216%+245%+273%+302%+331%+361%+391%+42
0%-211%-153%-95%-38%+39%+99%+157%+215%+272%+331%+39
Margin from Valencia's side (positive = Valencia win). Pythia's expected margin is +12.6; Valencia win by 1+ in 79% of simulations.
Spread Valencia -3
VAL -3
81.4%
BRE +3
18.6%
Best 5 market prices
VAL
No market prices yet.
BRE
No market prices yet.
Spread Valencia 0
VAL 0
86.1%
BRE 0
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
VAL
No market prices yet.
BRE
No market prices yet.
Spread Valencia +3
VAL +3
90.5%
BRE -3
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
VAL
No market prices yet.
BRE
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +4.7+4.7Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -1.1-1.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: +1.5+1.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +4.7+4.7Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -1.1-1.1
ValenciaBreogan
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ValenciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H15/10
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
58-36
58
36
+22
H18/10
ACB
Paris
#14
W
57-54
57
54
+3
A23/10
Euroleague
Baskonia
#4
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H25/10
ACB
Fenerbahce
#7
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H27/10
Euroleague
Barcelona
#4
L
42-44
42
44
-2
A30/10
Euroleague
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A01/11
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
40-37
40
37
+3
A05/11
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A08/11
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H12/11
Euroleague
87.4Avg total
46.1Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.141.188.2+6.077%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.139.688.7+9.580%-
Last 30 away (15)45.142.687.7+2.573%-
Last 10 (10)46.141.387.4+4.870%-
Last 5 (5)44.242.686.8+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)45.331.376.7+14.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)47.342.289.5+5.174%-
This opponent (Breogan) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BreoganLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Manchester Basketball
#31
W
54-33
54
33
+21
A17/09
Champions League
Dziki Warszawa
#9
L
46-58
46
58
-12
A19/09
Champions League
Joventut Badalona
#14
W
56-49
56
49
+7
H27/09
ACB
Manresa
#17
W
51-40
51
40
+11
A03/10
ACB
Basquet Girona
#9
W
61-41
61
41
+20
H10/10
ACB
MoraBanc Andorra
#18
W
53-43
53
43
+10
A17/10
ACB
Unicaja
#10
L
47-59
47
59
-12
H25/10
ACB
Obradoiro CAB
#12
W
50-43
50
43
+7
A01/11
ACB
Barcelona
#5
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A08/11
ACB
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H14/11
ACB
94.8Avg total
50.5Scored
44.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.145.091.0+1.147%-
Last 30 at home (14)47.744.392.0+3.457%-
Last 30 away (16)44.645.690.2-0.938%-
Last 10 (10)50.544.394.8+6.280%-
Last 5 (5)47.444.491.8+3.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)40.349.089.3-8.70%-
vs Similar (11)43.745.989.6-2.236%-
vs Weaker (11)51.142.193.2+9.082%-
This opponent (Valencia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Valenciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valencia: 95.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.025.0
56.8%
55.8%50.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.210.1
34.6%
36.4%30.3
🏀 Free throws20.715.6
75.4%
76.0%15.6
They take 73.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Breogantheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Breogan: 106.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.9 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.123.4
61.4%
55.8%46.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.914.3
44.8%
36.4%42.9
🏀 Free throws21.616.6
76.9%
76.0%16.6
They take 70.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Valencia
WWWWLWWWWL
Breogan
WLWLLWWWLW
#3
League position
#6
+8.9
Net rating
+11.0
108.3
Offensive rating
114.3
99.4
Defensive rating
103.4
54.8%
Effective FG%
64.1%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
57.1%
8.8%
Turnover %
15.2%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.31
34.6%
3-point %
44.8%
51.0%
Assist %
59.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence108.3 · 114.3Defence99.4 · 103.4Shooting54.8% · 64.1%3-point %34.6% · 44.8%Ball care8.8% · 15.2%Free throws0.28 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)80% · 60%
■ Valencia   ■ Breogan
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Valencia wins
3
Breogan wins
DateGameScore
05/04/26Valencia v Breogan105-88
12/10/25Breogan v Valencia90-113
30/05/25Valencia v Breogan108-61
13/10/24Breogan v Valencia75-87
14/01/24Valencia v Breogan88-80
15/10/23Breogan v Valencia59-61
24/05/23Valencia v Breogan77-80
06/11/22Breogan v Valencia83-88
13/02/22Breogan v Valencia99-82
19/12/21Valencia v Breogan97-98
Valencialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HBayern102-87
08/11/26ASan Pablo Burgos100-93
05/11/26AOlimpia Milano84-73
01/11/26AMoraBanc Andorra111-79
30/10/26ABarcelona94-98
27/10/26HFenerbahce86-78
25/10/26HBaskonia84-75
23/10/26AParis104-93
18/10/26HMurcia116-93
15/10/26HMaccabi Tel Aviv88-91
Breoganlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos119-110
08/11/26ABarcelona91-99
01/11/26AObradoiro CAB110-90
25/10/26HUnicaja90-103
17/10/26AMoraBanc Andorra102-108
10/10/26HBasquet Girona115-92
03/10/26AManresa101-95
27/09/26HJoventut Badalona110-104
19/09/26ADziki Warszawa110-113
17/09/26AManchester Basketball105-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valencia
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW71%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%67%75%
Points / game99.1100.098.5
Allowed / game88.091.085.8
Point differential+11.1+9.0+12.8
Avg total187.1191.0184.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Breogan
ACB 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW62%
HomeWWLW75%
AwayWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%75%50%
Points / game104.8108.5101.0
Allowed / game100.1102.298.0
Point differential+4.6+6.2+3.0
Avg total204.9210.8199.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%25%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Real Madrid770100%106.385.3+21.0
2 Tenerife86275%87.179.6+7.5
3 Valencia75271%99.188.0+11.1
4 Baskonia75271%95.084.3+10.7
5 Barcelona75271%97.394.4+2.9
6 Breogan85362%104.8100.1+4.6
7 Basket Zaragoza85362%92.889.1+3.6
8 Bilbao74357%92.092.6-0.6
9 Basquet Girona74357%90.797.3-6.6
10 Unicaja73443%88.786.1+2.6
11 Murcia73443%90.193.3-3.1
12 Obradoiro CAB73443%90.396.6-6.3
13 Leyma Coruna73443%91.999.9-8.0
14 Joventut Badalona83538%90.590.4+0.1
15 San Pablo Burgos82625%91.493.0-1.6
16 Forca Lleida71614%92.9105.6-12.7
17 Manresa71614%86.6102.3-15.7
18 MoraBanc Andorra81712%86.496.5-10.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.