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Varese vs Leiden Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 13 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 79-82
18-19 27-20 21-19 13-24
Position#7
Record5-2
FormWLLLL
Points / game95.4
Allowed / game91.1
vs
Leiden 🏆
Position#14
Record4-2
FormWWWLL
Points / game64.0
Allowed / game59.2
EuropeFIBA Europe CupRound 2· Palasport Lino Oldrini
European cup2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Leiden winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Sassari
#8
W
90-79
90
79
+11
88avg 83
H05/11
Lega A
Keravnos
#38
W
97-90
97
90
+7
93avg 83
H08/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Basket Napoli
#7
L
96-97
96
97
-1
96avg 83
A11/11
Lega A
Gottingen
#8
W
109-104 OT
109
104
+5
109avg 83
A15/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Scafati
#14
W
94-93
94
93
+1
92avg 83
H19/11
Lega A
TSU
#41
W
94-81
94
81
+13
94avg 83
A22/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Brescia
#3
L
73-116
73
116
-43
55avg 83
A26/11
Lega A
Cremona
#11
L
68-75
68
75
-7
59avg 83
H03/12
Lega A
Chemnitz
#2
L
85-109
85
109
-24
72avg 83
A06/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#15
L
81-86
81
86
-5
71avg 83
A10/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-17
24-23
19-22
19-17
28-22
21-20
21-19
27-29
18-22
27-19
21-22
30-34
15-23
26-23
26-24
24-21
20-25
29-30
25-17
20-21
16-16
32-21
21-14
25-30
11-33
22-31
15-27
25-25
16-18
16-12
22-26
14-19
16-35
25-27
29-18
15-29
21-27
12-13
26-17
22-29
181.7Avg total
88.7Scored
93.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)95.491.1186.6+4.371%
Season at home (3)95.088.0183.0+7.067%
Season away (4)95.893.5189.2+2.275%
Last 10 (10)88.793.0181.7-4.350%
Last 5 (5)80.293.4173.6-13.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)82.4108.0190.4-25.60%
vs Similar (16)85.888.4174.2-2.638%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)97.987.8185.6+10.1100%
This opponent (Leiden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LeidenLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLeiden
Date
Competition
Galil Elyon
#50
W
20-0
20
0
+20
no box
A01/11
FIBA Europe Cup
BAL Weert
#15
W
88-71
88
71
+17
82avg 70
A04/11
BNXT League
Gravelines-Dunkerque
#16
L
46-74
46
74
-28
27avg 70
A08/11
FIBA Europe Cup
LWD Basket
#17
W
72-67
72
67
+5
69avg 70
H11/11
BNXT League
Trepca
#25
W
80-76
80
76
+4
78avg 70
H15/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Donar Groningen
#13
W
85-77
85
77
+8
79avg 70
H19/11
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#13
W
72-70
72
70
+2
62avg 70
A28/11
BNXT League
BS Leiden
#16
W
100-47
100
47
+53
no box
A02/12
DBL Cup
CSM Oradea
#17
L
77-82
77
82
-5
68avg 70
H06/12
FIBA Europe Cup
QSTA Utd
#19
L
79-83
79
83
-4
71avg 70
A10/12
BNXT League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
–
–
–
–
20-16
21-23
29-15
18-17
6-24
14-13
15-15
11-22
19-21
23-14
13-16
17-16
23-22
18-15
17-18
22-21
25-18
18-23
23-17
19-19
28-16
16-16
13-21
15-17
27-8
21-12
34-12
18-15
19-23
24-19
18-17
16-23
21-18
16-19
15-29
27-17
136.6Avg total
71.9Scored
64.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)64.059.2123.2+4.867%
Season at home (3)78.075.7153.7+2.367%
Season away (3)50.042.792.7+7.367%
Last 10 (10)71.964.7136.6+7.270%
Last 5 (5)82.671.8154.4+10.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)63.575.8139.2-12.225%
vs Similar (11)75.371.2146.5+4.173%
vs Weaker (12)84.369.2153.5+15.292%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.9-4.9Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +1.9+1.9Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: -0.4-0.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.9-4.9Q1: +2.4+2.4Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +1.9+1.9Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: -3.3-3.3Q4: -0.4-0.4
VareseLeiden
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sassari
#8
W
52-40
52
40
+12
H05/11
Lega A
Keravnos
#38
W
49-42
49
42
+7
H08/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Basket Napoli
#7
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A11/11
Lega A
Gottingen
#8
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A15/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Scafati
#14
L
49-55
49
55
-6
H19/11
Lega A
TSU
#41
W
48-37
48
37
+11
A22/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Brescia
#3
L
33-64
33
64
-31
A26/11
Lega A
Cremona
#11
W
32-30
32
30
+2
H03/12
Lega A
Chemnitz
#2
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A06/12
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#15
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A10/12
Lega A
88.0Avg total
42.3Scored
45.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.146.190.2-2.033%-
Last 30 at home (14)47.144.991.9+2.250%-
Last 30 away (16)41.647.288.8-5.619%-
Last 10 (10)42.345.788.0-3.450%-
Last 5 (5)37.446.684.0-9.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)40.857.097.8-16.20%-
vs Similar (16)42.244.686.8-2.431%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)51.243.194.4+8.162%-
This opponent (Leiden) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
LeidenLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
BAL Weert
#15
W
41-39
41
39
+2
A04/11
BNXT League
Gravelines-Dunkerque
#16
L
20-37
20
37
-17
A08/11
FIBA Europe Cup
LWD Basket
#17
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H11/11
BNXT League
Trepca
#25
W
41-37
41
37
+4
H15/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Donar Groningen
#13
W
43-41
43
41
+2
H19/11
BNXT League
Donar Groningen
#13
W
44-32
44
32
+12
A28/11
BNXT League
BS Leiden
#16
W
48-20
48
20
+28
A02/12
DBL Cup
CSM Oradea
#17
W
43-42
43
42
+1
H06/12
FIBA Europe Cup
QSTA Utd
#19
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A10/12
BNXT League
75.4Avg total
39.9Scored
35.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)37.534.572.0+3.066%-
Last 30 at home (14)37.035.672.6+1.457%-
Last 30 away (15)38.033.571.5+4.573%-
Last 10 (9)39.935.675.4+4.378%-
Last 5 (5)43.034.477.4+8.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)31.238.269.5-7.050%-
vs Similar (11)36.435.872.2+0.545%-
vs Weaker (12)40.233.673.8+6.783%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 87.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀37%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.0 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers29.516.4
55.6%
52.2%32.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.812.3
36.4%
33.8%36.9
🏀 Free throws24.118.2
75.5%
73.0%18.2
They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 53% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Leidentheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Leiden: 75.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.7 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.0 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.421.1
48.6%
52.2%42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.27.8
35.1%
33.8%23.4
🏀 Free throws13.49.7
72.4%
73.0%9.7
They take 65.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LLLLWWWLWW
Leiden
LLWWWWWLWW
#7
League position
#14
-5.3
Net rating
+5.4
108.5
Offensive rating
106.1
113.8
Defensive rating
100.7
55.1%
Effective FG%
50.0%
53.2%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
17.4%
Turnover %
15.0%
19.5%
Off. rebound %
30.5%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.20
36.4%
3-point %
35.1%
60.3%
Assist %
67.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence108.5 · 106.1Defence113.8 · 100.7Shooting55.1% · 50.0%3-point %36.4% · 35.1%Ball care17.4% · 15.0%Off. rebounds19.5% · 30.5%Free throws0.38 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Varese   ■ Leiden
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Varese wins
0
Leiden wins
No previous meetings.
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/12/23ABrindisi81-86
06/12/23AChemnitz85-109
03/12/23HCremona68-75
26/11/23ABrescia73-116
22/11/23ATSU94-81
19/11/23HScafati94-93
15/11/23AGottingen109-104 OT
11/11/23ABasket Napoli96-97
08/11/23HKeravnos97-90
05/11/23HSassari90-79
Leidenlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/12/23AQSTA Utd79-83
06/12/23HCSM Oradea77-82
02/12/23ABS Leiden100-47
28/11/23ADonar Groningen72-70
19/11/23HDonar Groningen85-77
15/11/23HTrepca80-76
11/11/23HLWD Basket72-67
08/11/23AGravelines-Dunkerque46-74
04/11/23ABAL Weert88-71
01/11/23AGalil Elyon20-0

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
FIBA Europe Cup 2023
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL71%
HomeLWW67%
AwayWWWL75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %71%67%75%
Points / game95.495.095.8
Allowed / game91.188.093.5
Point differential+4.3+7.0+2.2
Avg total186.6183.0189.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %14%0%25%
Leiden
FIBA Europe Cup 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL67%
HomeWWL67%
AwayWWL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633
Win %67%67%67%
Points / game64.078.050.0
Allowed / game59.275.742.7
Point differential+4.8+2.3+7.3
Avg total123.2153.792.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Chemnitz880100%93.470.9+22.5
2 Bnei Herzliya220100%92.075.5+16.5
3 Bilbao880100%81.968.0+13.9
4 Bahcesehir Kol.76186%92.479.1+13.3
5 Nymburk86275%88.877.0+11.8
6 Rostock86275%87.277.4+9.9
7 Gottingen86275%88.579.9+8.6
8 Legia86275%87.478.9+8.5
9 Basket Zaragoza86275%82.176.4+5.8
10 Varese75271%95.491.1+4.3
11 Manisa107370%78.575.5+3.0
12 Gravelines-Dunkerque64267%73.764.0+9.7
13 Rapid Bucuresti32167%75.770.7+5.0
14 Leiden64267%64.059.2+4.8
15 CSM Oradea85362%87.282.4+4.9
16 FC Porto106460%83.177.0+6.1
17 Sporting CP53260%87.283.8+3.4
18 Anwil Wloclawek63350%78.268.2+10.0
19 Boras21150%91.590.0+1.5
20 Tindastoll21150%69.069.5-0.5
21 Jonava84450%86.988.2-1.4
22 BC Kalev/Cramo42250%73.875.2-1.5
23 Kormend21150%89.592.0-2.5
24 AEK Larnaca63350%78.882.0-3.2
25 Chernomorets21150%97.0100.5-3.5
26 Balkan63350%76.580.2-3.7
27 Spojnia Stargard63350%79.384.2-4.8
28 Trepca63350%68.275.2-7.0
29 Caledonia Gladiators63350%71.879.2-7.3
30 Jamtland21150%71.078.5-7.5
31 Sabah Baku94544%77.783.6-5.9
32 Bakken Bears62433%84.285.3-1.2
33 Donar Groningen31233%67.368.7-1.3
34 Levice62433%74.880.0-5.2
35 Peja62433%82.593.3-10.8
36 Alba Fehervar41325%85.589.5-4.0
37 Brindisi41325%77.881.8-4.0
38 Keravnos82625%79.484.9-5.5
39 Kataja82625%78.285.0-6.8
40 Den Bosch61517%79.086.7-7.7
41 TSU61517%78.786.5-7.8
42 Karhu Basket61517%82.390.7-8.3
43 Norrkoping61517%70.281.7-11.5
44 Mornar Bar61517%71.885.3-13.5
45 Pardubice2020%82.085.5-3.5
46 Parnu2020%64.573.0-8.5
47 Rabotnicki3030%66.778.3-11.7
48 Nevezis2020%86.099.0-13.0
49 Anorthosis2020%75.089.0-14.0
50 Galil Elyon1010%0.020.0-20.0
51 CSU Sibiu6060%63.283.5-20.3
52 Feniks 20102020%66.0104.0-38.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 52 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese1827211379
Leiden1920192482
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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