Bilbao vs Murcia Prediction & Stats

Bilbao hosts Murcia on 15 November 2026 in the Liga ACB, with the model favouring the home side at 60% versus 40% for the visitors; the projected score is 91-88 and the total is 178.6 points. Bilbao's season record is 4-3, averaging 92.0 points per game and allowing 92.6, and they sit eighth in the league; at home they are undefeated 3-0, scoring 97.0 and conceding 85.0, and they won three of their last five games, including a recent 83-75 victory over Alba Berlin at home. Murcia, meanwhile, is 3-4 overall, averaging 90.1 and allowing 93.3, and they are eleventh; on the road they are 0-3, scoring 80.3 and conceding 96.7, and they won two of their last five, with a recent 125-98 win over Forca Lleida at home. In their ten meetings, Murcia has won seven, most recently beating Bilbao 100-81 on 28 March 2026. The home line is -3.0 with a 51% chance of covering, the over line is 181.5 with a 42% chance of going over, and there is a 5% probability of overtime. The game will hinge on whether Bilbao can maintain its strong home performance against a Murcia side that has struggled on the road.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Bilbao win

57.8%fair 1.73

Best odds1.90

Implied53.5%

Edge+4.3pp

Murcia win

42.2%fair 2.37

Best odds2.11

Implied46.5%

Edge-4.3pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Bilbao

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormBilbao

Date

Competition

Leyma Coruna

#13

101-104 OT

101

104

-3

90avg 81

A04/10

ACB

Igokea

#27

92-79

+13

90avg 81

A06/10

Champions League

San Pablo Burgos

#15

96-87

88avg 81

H11/10

ACB

Slavia Prague ERA NBK

#50

97-86

+11

94avg 81

H14/10

Champions League

Real Madrid

84-119

119

-35

75avg 81

A18/10

ACB

MoraBanc Andorra

#18

88-76

+12

83avg 81

H25/10

ACB

Alba Berlin

100-103

100

103

-3

98avg 81

A28/10

Champions League

Joventut Badalona

#14

81-78

74avg 81

A01/11

ACB

Basquet Girona

87-92

-5

no box

A07/11

ACB

Alba Berlin

83-75

no box

H10/11

Champions League

18-22

27-24

22-23

24-22

28-21

22-14

22-21

20-23

19-20

25-25

30-25

22-17

27-21

15-14

26-26

29-25

13-36

22-26

22-27

27-30

15-22

27-18

23-17

23-19

26-24

22-19

24-31

28-29

27-23

11-21

29-17

14-17

25-19

19-27

23-20

20-26

22-18

23-21

19-14

19-22

180.8Avg total

90.9Scored

89.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (7)	92.0	92.6	184.6	-0.6	57%
Season at home (3)	97.0	85.0	182.0	+12.0	100%
Season away (4)	88.2	98.2	186.5	-10.0	25%
Last 10 (10)	90.9	89.9	180.8	+1.0	60%
Last 5 (5)	87.8	84.8	172.6	+3.0	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	78.3	92.9	171.1	-14.6	14%
vs Similar ◀ (9)	89.2	83.7	172.9	+5.6	78%
vs Weaker (14)	91.6	84.4	176.1	+7.2	71%

This opponent (Murcia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Murcia

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormMurcia

Date

Competition

Barcelona

100-94

100

91avg 81

H04/10

ACB

Varese

#37

85-58

+27

89avg 81

H07/10

Champions League

Tenerife

77-90

-13

64avg 81

H11/10

ACB

Bamberg

#53

86-67

+19

80avg 81

A14/10

Champions League

Valencia

93-116

116

-23

78avg 81

A18/10

ACB

Leyma Coruna

#13

88-81

74avg 81

H24/10

ACB

Peristeri

72-80

-8

60avg 81

H27/10

Champions League

Forca Lleida

#16

125-98

125

+27

117avg 81

H31/10

ACB

Real Madrid

71-90

-19

no box

A08/11

ACB

Bamberg

#53

98-66

+32

no box

H11/11

Champions League

18-18

28-28

24-27

30-21

16-8

23-14

27-20

19-16

13-16

20-28

24-22

20-24

15-17

19-15

32-23

20-12

14-25

22-33

24-28

33-30

18-17

19-23

26-18

25-23

15-16

17-17

18-27

22-20

34-21

26-19

25-25

40-33

20-22

19-25

16-16

16-27

29-19

21-18

15-11

33-18

173.5Avg total

89.5Scored

84.0Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (7)	90.1	93.3	183.4	-3.1	43%
Season at home (4)	97.5	90.8	188.2	+6.8	75%
Season away (3)	80.3	96.7	177.0	-16.3	0%
Last 10 (10)	89.5	84.0	173.5	+5.5	60%
Last 5 (5)	90.8	83.0	173.8	+7.8	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	85.2	97.5	182.8	-12.2	25%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	86.1	92.4	178.6	-6.3	29%
vs Weaker (19)	91.9	79.4	171.4	+12.5	89%

This opponent (Bilbao) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

Pythia expects about 176 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (11%). The market's main line is 181.5.

Over/Under 176.5

Over 176.5

47.2%

@ 1.75-8.9pp

Under 176.5

52.8%

@ 2.16+8.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.75

Marathon Be

1.75

Bet365

1.74

Pinnacle

1.69

Betano

1.67

Under

Pinnacle

2.16

Betano

2.12

WilliamHill

2.10

Bet365

2.05

1xBet

1.99

Over/Under 181.5 · main line

Over 181.5

35.7%

@ 2.14-8.2pp

Under 181.5

64.3%

@ 1.90+8.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.14

Marathon Be

2.14

Bet365

2.12

WilliamHill

2.10

Betano

2.07

Under

BetVictor

1.90

Betano

1.70

WilliamHill

1.67

Bet365

1.64

1xBet

1.62

Over/Under 186.5

Over 186.5

25.5%

@ 2.80-10.4pp

Under 186.5

74.5%

@ 1.53+10.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.80

Betano

2.70

1xBet

2.25

Marathon Be

2.25

Under

1xBet

1.53

Betano

1.40

Bet365

1.38

Marathon Be

1.36

📊 3. Team Totals

Bilbao total 86.5

Over 86.5

59.2%

@ 1.58-0.7pp

Under 86.5

40.8%

@ 2.35+0.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.58

Betano

1.47

Under

Betano

2.35

Bet365

2.22

Bilbao total 90.5 · main line

Over 90.5

44.1%

@ 1.98-3.4pp

Under 90.5

55.9%

@ 1.88+3.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.98

Marathon Be

1.98

Betano

1.93

WilliamHill

1.91

BetVictor

1.88

Under

BetVictor

1.88

WilliamHill

1.80

Betano

1.75

1xBet

1.74

Marathon Be

1.74

Bilbao total 94.5

Over 94.5

29.9%

@ 2.80-7.6pp

Under 94.5

70.1%

@ 1.60+7.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.80

Betano

2.62

WilliamHill

2.30

1xBet

2.07

Under

1xBet

1.60

WilliamHill

1.57

Betano

1.38

Bet365

1.38

Murcia total 85.5

Over 85.5

54.3%

@ 1.42-9.2pp

Under 85.5

45.7%

@ 2.47+9.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.42

Under

Betano

2.47

Murcia total 89.5 · main line

Over 89.5

39.1%

@ 1.95-10.7pp

Under 89.5

60.9%

@ 1.88+10.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.95

Marathon Be

1.95

BetVictor

1.91

WilliamHill

1.85

Betano

1.83

Under

BetVictor

1.88

WilliamHill

1.85

Betano

1.83

Bet365

1.83

1xBet

1.76

Murcia total 93.5

Over 93.5

25.6%

@ 2.47-10.9pp

Under 93.5

74.4%

@ 1.42+10.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.47

Under

Betano

1.42

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

Margin from Bilbao's side (positive = Bilbao win). Pythia's expected margin is +2.2; Bilbao win by 1+ in 51% of simulations.

Spread Bilbao -4.5

BIL -4.5

43.6%

@ 2.65+4.4pp

MUR +4.5

56.4%

@ 1.54-4.4pp

Best 5 market prices

BIL

Bet365

2.65

Betano

2.45

1xBet

2.28

Marathon Be

2.28

MUR

1xBet

1.54

Marathon Be

1.54

Betano

1.50

Bet365

1.43

Spread Bilbao -1.5 · main line

BIL -1.5

55.0%

@ 2.05+4.7pp

MUR +1.5

45.0%

@ 1.91-4.7pp

Best 5 market prices

BIL

Bet365

2.05

Betano

1.95

1xBet

1.94

Marathon Be

1.92

Betfair

1.91

MUR

Pinnacle

1.91

1xBet

1.90

Marathon Be

1.88

BetVictor

1.83

Betano

1.80

Spread Bilbao +1.5

BIL +1.5

60.5%

@ 1.83+5.3pp

MUR -1.5

39.5%

@ 2.11-5.3pp

Best 5 market prices

BIL

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.72

Pinnacle

1.71

1xBet

1.69

Marathon Be

1.69

MUR

Pinnacle

2.11

1xBet

2.09

Marathon Be

2.09

Betano

2.05

Bet365

1.90

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

BilbaoMurcia

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 43.5
Last 30 (30)	20.9	21.1	42.0	-0.2	57%	47%
Last 30 at home (15)	21.5	20.3	41.8	+1.1	53%	40%
Last 30 away (15)	20.3	21.9	42.2	-1.5	60%	53%
Last 10 (10)	22.0	22.6	44.6	-0.6	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	23.0	21.2	44.2	+1.8	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	16.1	23.1	39.3	-7.0	43%	43%
vs Similar ◀ (9)	22.2	21.3	43.6	+0.9	56%	56%
vs Weaker (14)	22.4	19.9	42.4	+2.5	64%	43%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 43.5
Last 30 (30)	20.4	19.6	40.0	+0.7	43%	33%
Last 30 at home (18)	20.8	19.6	40.3	+1.2	39%	44%
Last 30 away (12)	19.8	19.8	39.5	+0.0	50%	17%
Last 10 (10)	19.2	17.9	37.1	+1.3	40%	20%
Last 5 (5)	23.2	19.0	42.2	+4.2	60%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	16.2	20.2	36.5	-4.0	0%	0%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	19.1	20.4	39.6	-1.3	43%	29%
vs Weaker (19)	21.7	19.2	40.9	+2.5	53%	42%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	21.2	21.2	42.4	+0.0	43%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.1	19.9	42.1	+2.2	60%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	20.3	22.5	42.8	-2.1	27%	60%
Last 10 (10)	21.3	20.9	42.2	+0.4	60%	60%
Last 5 (5)	20.4	21.2	41.6	-0.8	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	19.0	23.3	42.3	-4.3	0%	57%
vs Similar ◀ (9)	20.3	19.7	40.0	+0.7	44%	33%
vs Weaker (14)	22.9	21.1	44.1	+1.8	64%	71%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	21.7	20.9	42.6	+0.7	53%	50%
Last 30 at home (18)	22.2	20.7	42.8	+1.5	61%	56%
Last 30 away (12)	20.9	21.3	42.2	-0.4	42%	42%
Last 10 (10)	21.4	22.0	43.4	-0.6	40%	50%
Last 5 (5)	20.4	20.4	40.8	+0.0	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	22.2	28.5	50.8	-6.2	0%	100%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	21.3	22.0	43.3	-0.7	43%	57%
vs Weaker (19)	21.7	18.9	40.6	+2.7	68%	37%

BilbaoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Leyma Coruna

#13

45-46

-1

A04/10

ACB

Igokea

#27

50-35

+15

A06/10

Champions League

San Pablo Burgos

#15

44-45

-1

H11/10

ACB

Slavia Prague ERA NBK

#50

42-35

H14/10

Champions League

Real Madrid

35-62

-27

A18/10

ACB

MoraBanc Andorra

#18

42-40

H25/10

ACB

Alba Berlin

48-43

A28/10

Champions League

Joventut Badalona

#14

38-44

-6

A01/11

ACB

Basquet Girona

44-46

-2

A07/11

ACB

Alba Berlin

45-39

H10/11

Champions League

86.8Avg total

43.3Scored

43.5Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 90.5
Last 30 (30)	42.1	42.3	84.4	-0.2	47%	27%
Last 30 at home (15)	43.6	40.3	83.9	+3.3	67%	13%
Last 30 away (15)	40.7	44.3	85.0	-3.7	27%	40%
Last 10 (10)	43.3	43.5	86.8	-0.2	50%	30%
Last 5 (5)	43.4	42.4	85.8	+1.0	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	35.1	46.4	81.6	-11.3	0%	29%
vs Similar ◀ (9)	42.6	41.0	83.6	+1.6	56%	33%
vs Weaker (14)	45.4	41.1	86.4	+4.3	64%	21%

This opponent (Murcia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

MurciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Barcelona

46-46

H04/10

ACB

Varese

#37

39-22

+17

H07/10

Champions League

Tenerife

33-44

-11

H11/10

ACB

Bamberg

#53

34-32

A14/10

Champions League

Valencia

36-58

-22

A18/10

ACB

Leyma Coruna

#13

37-40

-3

H24/10

ACB

Peristeri

32-33

-1

H27/10

Champions League

Forca Lleida

#16

60-40

+20

H31/10

ACB

Real Madrid

39-47

-8

A08/11

ACB

Bamberg

#53

50-37

+13

H11/11

Champions League

80.5Avg total

40.6Scored

39.9Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 90.5
Last 30 (30)	42.0	40.6	82.6	+1.5	57%	23%
Last 30 at home (18)	42.9	40.2	83.2	+2.7	61%	28%
Last 30 away (12)	40.7	41.1	81.8	-0.4	50%	17%
Last 10 (10)	40.6	39.9	80.5	+0.7	40%	30%
Last 5 (5)	43.6	39.4	83.0	+4.2	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	38.5	48.8	87.2	-10.2	0%	50%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	40.4	42.4	82.9	-2.0	43%	14%
vs Weaker (19)	43.4	38.2	81.5	+5.2	74%	21%

This opponent (Bilbao) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winner

BIL win

56.7%

@ 1.86+4.7pp

MUR win

43.3%

@ 1.97-4.7pp

1st half Spread Bilbao 0 · main line

BIL 0

56.7%

@ 1.87+6.7pp

MUR 0

43.3%

@ 1.87-6.7pp

1st half Over/Under 90.5 · main line

Over

39.6%

@ 2.62-5.0pp

Under

60.4%

@ 1.85+5.0pp

Bilbao 1st half total 44.5 · main line

Over

49.9%

@ 2.20+3.2pp

Under

50.1%

@ 1.87-3.2pp

Murcia 1st half total 43 · main line

Over

50.5%

@ 1.88+0.7pp

Under

49.5%

@ 1.86-0.7pp

1st half: BIL + total 87.5

BIL & over

27.8%

@ 3.30+1.6pp

BIL & under

26.4%

@ 3.40+0.9pp

1st half: Draw + total 87.5

Draw & over

2.1%

@ 26.00-1.3pp

Draw & under

2.2%

@ 26.00-1.1pp

1st half: MUR + total 87.5

MUR & over

20.8%

@ 4.10-0.3pp

MUR & under

20.7%

@ 4.20+0.1pp

1st half Over/Under 89

Over

44.9%

@ 1.92-3.8pp

Under

55.1%

@ 1.82+3.8pp

1st half Spread Bilbao -1

BIL -1

52.2%

@ 2.02+4.2pp

MUR +1

47.8%

@ 1.83-4.2pp

1st half Spread Bilbao +1

BIL +1

60.9%

@ 1.72+4.9pp

MUR -1

39.1%

@ 2.15-4.9pp

1st half Over/Under 92.5

Over

32.5%

@ 3.15+2.9pp

Under

67.5%

@ 1.32-2.9pp

1st half Over/Under 87.5

Over

50.7%

@ 2.02+2.5pp

Under

49.3%

@ 1.87-2.5pp

1st half Spread Bilbao -2

BIL -2

47.9%

@ 2.18+4.4pp

MUR +2

52.1%

@ 1.81-4.4pp

1st half Over/Under 94.5

Over

25.8%

@ 3.75+1.1pp

Under

74.2%

@ 1.23-1.1pp

1st half 3-way (draw possible)

BIL

54.2%

@ 1.95+6.7pp

Draw

4.3%

@ 19.00-1.1pp

MUR

41.5%

@ 1.98-5.6pp

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	23.1	21.3	44.4	+1.8	57%	43%
Last 30 at home (15)	23.3	22.1	45.3	+1.2	53%	47%
Last 30 away (15)	22.9	20.5	43.4	+2.3	60%	40%
Last 10 (10)	24.0	22.1	46.1	+1.9	60%	50%
Last 5 (5)	23.6	19.8	43.4	+3.8	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	21.1	21.9	43.0	-0.7	29%	43%
vs Similar ◀ (9)	24.9	22.8	47.7	+2.1	56%	78%
vs Weaker (14)	22.9	20.1	42.9	+2.8	71%	21%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 45.5
Last 30 (30)	22.7	21.4	44.1	+1.4	60%	47%
Last 30 at home (18)	22.0	20.1	42.1	+1.9	67%	39%
Last 30 away (12)	23.8	23.2	47.1	+0.6	50%	58%
Last 10 (10)	23.1	21.7	44.8	+1.4	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	20.0	19.4	39.4	+0.6	40%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	22.0	23.2	45.2	-1.2	25%	75%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	23.1	23.3	46.4	-0.1	43%	43%
vs Weaker (19)	22.7	20.3	43.0	+2.5	74%	42%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 46.5
Last 30 (30)	21.8	21.8	43.5	+0.0	47%	33%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.7	18.9	41.6	+3.7	80%	27%
Last 30 away (15)	20.9	24.6	45.5	-3.7	13%	40%
Last 10 (10)	22.6	23.0	45.6	-0.4	40%	30%
Last 5 (5)	20.8	22.6	43.4	-1.8	20%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	22.0	24.6	46.6	-2.6	29%	43%
vs Similar ◀ (9)	21.8	19.9	41.7	+1.9	44%	33%
vs Weaker (14)	21.6	21.6	43.2	+0.1	57%	29%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 46.5
Last 30 (30)	24.6	22.4	47.0	+2.3	73%	53%
Last 30 at home (18)	25.3	21.5	46.8	+3.8	78%	56%
Last 30 away (12)	23.7	23.7	47.3	+0.0	67%	50%
Last 10 (10)	25.8	22.4	48.2	+3.4	80%	50%
Last 5 (5)	27.2	24.2	51.4	+3.0	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	24.8	25.5	50.2	-0.8	50%	50%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	21.3	24.3	45.6	-3.0	43%	43%
vs Weaker (19)	25.8	21.0	46.8	+4.8	89%	58%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 92.5
Last 30 (30)	44.8	43.1	87.9	+1.8	60%	33%
Last 30 at home (15)	45.9	41.0	86.9	+4.9	80%	33%
Last 30 away (15)	43.7	45.1	88.9	-1.4	40%	33%
Last 10 (10)	46.6	45.1	91.7	+1.5	60%	40%
Last 5 (5)	44.4	42.4	86.8	+2.0	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)	43.1	46.4	89.6	-3.3	29%	43%
vs Similar ◀ (9)	46.7	42.7	89.3	+4.0	78%	44%
vs Weaker (14)	44.5	41.6	86.1	+2.9	64%	21%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 92.5
Last 30 (30)	47.4	43.7	91.1	+3.6	63%	33%
Last 30 at home (18)	47.3	41.6	88.9	+5.7	72%	22%
Last 30 away (12)	47.5	46.9	94.4	+0.6	50%	50%
Last 10 (10)	48.9	44.1	93.0	+4.8	60%	30%
Last 5 (5)	47.2	43.6	90.8	+3.6	60%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	46.8	48.8	95.5	-2.0	25%	50%
vs Similar ◀ (7)	44.4	47.6	92.0	-3.1	29%	29%
vs Weaker (19)	48.6	41.3	89.8	+7.3	84%	32%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

BIL win + total 181.5

🔒 Pro

MUR win + total 181.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: BIL leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: MUR leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

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Quarters won (BIL:MUR): BIL wins more

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🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds PRO1.20

Edge PRO

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge
2nd half: Under 93	70.4%	1.87	Marathon Bet 1.87	1xBet 1.87	-	-	-	+20.4pp
2nd half: Under 93.5	71.3%	1.84	Betano 1.87	Marathon Bet 1.82	1xBet 1.82	-	-	+20.0pp
Bilbao under 101.5	88.2%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+12.0pp
Murcia under 92.5	71.3%	1.52	Bet365 1.55	Betano 1.50	-	-	-	+11.3pp
Bilbao +6	76.1%	1.35	Bet365 1.38	Marathon Bet 1.32	-	-	-	+9.1pp
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■■■■■■ ■■■	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%

🔒 194 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Bilbaotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Bilbao: 91.7 points a game scored

🏀🏀40%

🏀🏀🏀39%

🏀21%

🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 40% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.4 pts a game · 39% of the points

🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 21% of the points

League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game

47%

34%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.2	18.5	52.6%	55.8%	37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.1	11.8	36.8%	36.4%	35.4
🏀 Free throws	26.6	19.3	72.6%	76.0%	19.3

They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Murciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Murcia: 87.9 points a game scored

🏀🏀42%

🏀🏀🏀37%

🏀22%

🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 42% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 37% of the points

🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 22% of the points

League average for comparison: 92.6 points a game

47%

34%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.2	18.4	50.8%	55.8%	36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.7	10.7	32.7%	36.4%	32.1
🏀 Free throws	24.5	19.0	77.6%	76.0%	19.0

They take 68.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.4	21.1	53.6%	55.8%	42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.3	10.9	36.0%	36.4%	32.7
🏀 Free throws	22.0	16.3	74.1%	76.0%	16.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.9	20.2	49.4%	55.8%	40.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	21.8	8.8	40.4%	36.4%	26.4
🏀 Free throws	27.0	20.0	74.1%	76.0%	20.0

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	34.2	18.9	55.3%	55.8%	37.9
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.3	10.5	35.8%	36.4%	31.5
🏀 Free throws	24.5	18.1	74.1%	76.0%	18.1

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.1	19.8	53.4%	55.8%	39.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.9	10.8	34.8%	36.4%	32.3
🏀 Free throws	23.5	17.7	75.6%	76.0%	17.7

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.5	20.5	53.2%	55.8%	41.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.2	10.0	35.3%	36.4%	29.9
🏀 Free throws	20.1	14.9	74.3%	76.0%	14.9

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.7	21.7	50.8%	55.8%	43.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	22.0	7.9	36.0%	36.4%	23.7
🏀 Free throws	25.8	19.0	73.9%	76.0%	19.0

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Bilbao

WLWLWLWWWL

Murcia

WLWLWLWLWW

League position

#11

+0.5

Net rating

+1.2

99.9

Offensive rating

97.1

99.4

Defensive rating

95.9

53.8%

Effective FG%

50.0%

53.7%

Opp. effective FG%

53.3%

13.6%

Turnover %

14.0%

0.40

Free-throw rate

0.36

36.8%

3-point %

32.7%

66.3%

Assist %

53.3%

60%

Form (last 10/10)

60%

Profile

■ Bilbao ■ Murcia

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Bilbao wins

Murcia wins

Date	Game	Score
28/03/26	Murcia v Bilbao	100-81
10/01/26	Bilbao v Murcia	96-82
27/04/25	Bilbao v Murcia	80-83 OT
05/10/24	Murcia v Bilbao	89-83 OT
03/02/24	Murcia v Bilbao	96-76
08/10/23	Bilbao v Murcia	77-68
14/05/23	Murcia v Bilbao	67-55
21/03/23	Bilbao v Murcia	67-71
31/01/23	Murcia v Bilbao	90-72
08/01/23	Bilbao v Murcia	99-81

Bilbaolast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
10/11/26	H	Alba Berlin	83-75
07/11/26	A	Basquet Girona	87-92
01/11/26	A	Joventut Badalona	81-78
28/10/26	A	Alba Berlin	100-103
25/10/26	H	MoraBanc Andorra	88-76
18/10/26	A	Real Madrid	84-119
14/10/26	H	Slavia Prague ERA NBK	97-86
11/10/26	H	San Pablo Burgos	96-87
06/10/26	A	Igokea	92-79
04/10/26	A	Leyma Coruna	101-104 OT

Murcialast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
11/11/26	H	Bamberg	98-66
08/11/26	A	Real Madrid	71-90
31/10/26	H	Forca Lleida	125-98
27/10/26	H	Peristeri	72-80
24/10/26	H	Leyma Coruna	88-81
18/10/26	A	Valencia	93-116
14/10/26	A	Bamberg	86-67
11/10/26	H	Tenerife	77-90
07/10/26	H	Varese	85-58
04/10/26	H	Barcelona	100-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Bilbao

ACB 2026-27

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WLWWL	57%
Home	WWW	100%
Away	LLWL	25%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	7	3	4
Win %	57%	100%	25%
Points / game	92.0	97.0	88.2
Allowed / game	92.6	85.0	98.2
Point differential	-0.6	+12.0	-10.0
Avg total	184.6	182.0	186.5
Over 181.5	57%	67%	50%
Win by 10+	29%	67%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (3)	-	33% (3)
Overtime %	14%	0%	25%

Murcia

ACB 2026-27

Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLWWL	43%
Home	WLWW	75%
Away	LLL	0%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	7	4	3
Win %	43%	75%	0%
Points / game	90.1	97.5	80.3
Allowed / game	93.3	90.8	96.7
Point differential	-3.1	+6.8	-16.3
Avg total	183.4	188.2	177.0
Over 181.5	43%	50%	33%
Win by 10+	14%	25%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	-	-	-
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Real Madrid	7	7	0	100%	106.3	85.3	+21.0
2	Tenerife	8	6	2	75%	87.1	79.6	+7.5
3	Valencia	7	5	2	71%	99.1	88.0	+11.1
4	Baskonia	7	5	2	71%	95.0	84.3	+10.7
5	Barcelona	7	5	2	71%	97.3	94.4	+2.9
6	Breogan	8	5	3	62%	104.8	100.1	+4.6
7	Basket Zaragoza	8	5	3	62%	92.8	89.1	+3.6
8	Bilbao	7	4	3	57%	92.0	92.6	-0.6
9	Basquet Girona	7	4	3	57%	90.7	97.3	-6.6
10	Unicaja	7	3	4	43%	88.7	86.1	+2.6
11	Murcia	7	3	4	43%	90.1	93.3	-3.1
12	Obradoiro CAB	7	3	4	43%	90.3	96.6	-6.3
13	Leyma Coruna	7	3	4	43%	91.9	99.9	-8.0
14	Joventut Badalona	8	3	5	38%	90.5	90.4	+0.1
15	San Pablo Burgos	8	2	6	25%	91.4	93.0	-1.6
16	Forca Lleida	7	1	6	14%	92.9	105.6	-12.7
17	Manresa	7	1	6	14%	86.6	102.3	-15.7
18	MoraBanc Andorra	8	1	7	12%	86.4	96.5	-10.1

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

← all games of the day

Bilbao vs Murcia Prediction & Stats

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Total points distribution

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

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