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Cerrado vs Pato Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 08 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 75-82
15-22 21-13 16-26 23-21
Position#17
Record5-13
FormLLWLL
Points / game73.7
Allowed / game75.4
vs
Pato 🏆
Brazil
Position#12
Record8-11
FormLLWWW
Points / game75.3
Allowed / game77.3
BrazilNBB· Ginasio da ASCEB
Other2023-24
Meetings · Cerrado v Pato
08 Jan 2024
CERR75
PATO82
05 Jan 2023
CERR109
PATO110
19 Nov 2021
CERR85
PATO86
31 Jan 2021
CERR77
PATO76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cerrado winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pato winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CerradoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCerrado
Date
Competition
Brasilia
#19
W
84-53
84
53
+31
88avg 65
H24/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
70-62
70
62
+8
64avg 65
H28/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
74-78
74
78
-4
65avg 65
H02/12
NBB
Minas
#3
W
68-67
68
67
+1
58avg 65
A06/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
77-80
77
80
-3
71avg 65
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
81-90
81
90
-9
83avg 65
A11/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
64-68
64
68
-4
56avg 65
H18/12
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
82-74
82
74
+8
74avg 65
H21/12
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
76-87
76
87
-11
60avg 65
A27/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
80-92
80
92
-12
68avg 65
A29/12
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-13
20-15
24-16
19-9
21-15
17-20
13-13
19-14
14-12
14-19
28-21
18-26
20-23
26-13
10-17
12-14
22-22
17-22
20-16
18-20
20-27
25-20
19-24
17-19
14-15
23-20
12-14
15-19
19-16
25-18
21-17
17-23
12-25
19-15
20-24
25-23
23-15
15-26
18-23
24-28
150.7Avg total
75.6Scored
75.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)73.775.4149.1-1.728%
Season at home (9)73.969.0142.9+4.944%
Season away (9)73.681.8155.3-8.211%
Last 10 (10)75.675.1150.7+0.540%
Last 5 (5)76.682.2158.8-5.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)74.088.6162.6-14.65%
vs Similar ◀ (7)75.376.6151.9-1.343%
vs Weaker (4)82.069.2151.2+12.850%
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Sao Paulo
#11
L
67-89
67
89
-22
56avg 68
A20/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
68-79
68
79
-11
60avg 68
A22/11
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
75-76
75
76
-1
63avg 68
H29/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
64-68
64
68
-4
50avg 68
H01/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
L
81-85
81
85
-4
76avg 68
A16/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
L
77-91
77
91
-14
67avg 68
A18/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
75-84
75
84
-9
66avg 68
A22/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
79-63
79
63
+16
77avg 68
H27/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
78-74
78
74
+4
65avg 68
H29/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
77-65
77
65
+12
76avg 68
A06/01
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-20
19-20
10-22
13-27
17-23
15-24
13-25
23-7
15-17
16-19
17-20
27-20
15-17
17-18
22-14
10-19
18-18
22-14
16-29
25-24
16-25
23-14
10-28
28-24
20-23
14-23
27-16
14-22
13-15
23-13
18-9
25-26
24-16
18-17
20-20
16-21
15-19
26-16
12-15
24-15
151.5Avg total
74.1Scored
77.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)75.377.3152.5-2.042%
Season at home (8)77.172.4149.5+4.862%
Season away (11)73.980.8154.7-6.927%
Last 10 (10)74.177.4151.5-3.330%
Last 5 (5)77.275.4152.6+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)72.378.8151.1-6.531%
vs Similar ◀ (10)76.479.5155.9-3.130%
vs Weaker (7)82.373.4155.7+8.986%
This opponent (Cerrado) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: -3.3-3.3Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +0.0+0.0
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: -3.3-3.3Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: +0.0+0.0
CerradoPato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CerradoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brasilia
#19
W
41-28
41
28
+13
H24/11
NBB
Mogi
#14
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H28/11
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
28-31
28
31
-3
H02/12
NBB
Minas
#3
W
46-36
46
36
+10
A06/12
NBB
Franca
#1
L
39-44
39
44
-5
A09/12
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A11/12
NBB
Paulistano
#7
W
37-35
37
35
+2
H18/12
NBB
Sao Paulo
#11
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H21/12
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
31-40
31
40
-9
A27/12
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A29/12
NBB
75.8Avg total
38.7Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.940.978.8-3.140%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.838.778.5+1.160%-
Last 30 away (15)35.943.179.1-7.220%-
Last 10 (10)38.737.175.8+1.650%-
Last 5 (5)39.039.478.4-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (19)36.944.281.1-7.326%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)36.737.474.1-0.743%-
vs Weaker (4)44.531.576.0+13.0100%-
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sao Paulo
#11
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A20/11
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
32-47
32
47
-15
A22/11
NBB
Cearense
#8
L
31-36
31
36
-5
H29/11
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
32-35
32
35
-3
H01/12
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
40-32
40
32
+8
A16/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A18/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
34-46
34
46
-12
A22/12
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H27/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H29/12
NBB
Brasilia
#19
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A06/01
NBB
74.2Avg total
37.1Scored
37.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.238.176.4+0.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.136.475.6+2.743%-
Last 30 away (16)37.439.677.1-2.244%-
Last 10 (10)37.137.174.2+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)38.436.274.6+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)36.439.375.7-2.931%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)38.038.576.5-0.540%-
vs Weaker (7)42.035.477.4+6.671%-
This opponent (Cerrado) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cerradotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cerrado: 74.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.218.8
46.8%
51.8%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.28.8
37.9%
33.9%26.4
🏀 Free throws15.110.8
71.5%
72.6%10.8
They take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 72.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.6 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.5 points a game
48%
35%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.919.3
50.9%
51.8%38.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.08.3
29.6%
33.9%24.9
🏀 Free throws13.79.4
68.6%
72.6%9.4
They take 65.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cerrado
LLWLLLWLWW
Pato
WWWLLLLLLL
#17
League position
#12
+0.7
Net rating
-5.6
104.8
Offensive rating
104.1
104.1
Defensive rating
109.7
50.5%
Effective FG%
48.2%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
17.6%
Turnover %
15.3%
29.9%
Off. rebound %
32.8%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.21
37.9%
3-point %
29.6%
60.9%
Assist %
59.8%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence104.8 · 104.1Defence104.1 · 109.7Shooting50.5% · 48.2%3-point %37.9% · 29.6%Ball care17.6% · 15.3%Off. rebounds29.9% · 32.8%Free throws0.24 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)40% · 30%
■ Cerrado   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Cerrado wins
5
Pato wins
DateGameScore
31/10/23Pato v Cerrado83-65
10/04/23Pato v Cerrado98-91
05/01/23Cerrado v Pato109-110
19/02/22Pato v Cerrado78-94
19/11/21Cerrado v Pato85-86 OT
31/01/21Cerrado v Pato77-76
22/12/20Pato v Cerrado79-68
Cerradolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/23AUnifacisa80-92
27/12/23ACearense76-87
21/12/23HSao Paulo82-74
18/12/23HPaulistano64-68
11/12/23ABauru81-90
09/12/23AFranca77-80
06/12/23AMinas68-67
02/12/23HSao Jose74-78
28/11/23HMogi70-62
24/11/23HBrasilia84-53
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/24ABrasilia77-65
29/12/23HCaxias do Sul78-74
27/12/23HUniao Corinthians79-63
22/12/23AMinas75-84
18/12/23APinheiros77-91
16/12/23ACorinthians Paulista81-85
01/12/23HUnifacisa64-68
29/11/23HCearense75-76
22/11/23APaulistano68-79
20/11/23ASao Paulo67-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cerrado
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL28%
HomeWWLLW44%
AwayWLLLL11%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1899
Win %28%44%11%
Points / game73.773.973.6
Allowed / game75.469.081.8
Point differential-1.7+4.9-8.2
Avg total149.1142.9155.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%22%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won17% (6)0% (2)25% (4)
Overtime %6%11%0%
Pato
NBB 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW42%
HomeWLLWW62%
AwayLLLLW27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19811
Win %42%62%27%
Points / game75.377.173.9
Allowed / game77.372.480.8
Point differential-2.0+4.8-6.9
Avg total152.5149.5154.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%25%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)50% (6)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Flamengo1816289%84.573.3+11.2
2 Minas1815383%85.373.7+11.7
3 Franca1814478%86.375.4+10.9
4 Vasco1813572%73.769.5+4.2
5 Paulistano1913668%74.270.5+3.7
6 Unifacisa1812667%81.778.0+3.7
7 Bauru2012860%78.877.2+1.7
8 Sao Jose1810856%80.074.9+5.1
9 Cearense1810856%78.175.8+2.2
10 Corinthians Paulista1881044%80.482.0-1.6
11 Pato1981142%75.377.3-2.0
12 Sao Paulo1981142%76.578.9-2.4
13 Pinheiros1871139%76.479.1-2.7
14 Botafogo1861233%78.484.7-6.3
15 Caxias do Sul1861233%72.179.2-7.1
16 Cerrado1851328%73.775.4-1.7
17 Uniao Corinthians1851328%71.680.8-9.2
18 Mogi1831517%73.279.9-6.7
19 Brasilia1931616%70.784.8-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Cerrado1521162375
Pato2213262182
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