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Illawarra Hawks vs New Zealand Breakers Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 11 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 03:30
Final 96-101
25-28 18-21 23-22 30-30
Position#8
Record8-14
FormLLWWL
Points / game90.1
Allowed / game96.9
vs
Position#7
Record8-15
FormLLWLL
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game90.0
AustraliaNBLRound 16· WIN Entertainment Centre
Other2025-26
Meetings · Illawarra Hawks v New Zealand Breakers
20 Jan 2027
ILLA v NEW
upcoming
27 Dec 2026
ILLA v NEW
upcoming
11 Jan 2026
ILLA96
NEW 101
31 Oct 2025
ILLA60
NEW 102
11 Jan 2025
ILLA108
NEW 100
28 Nov 2024
ILLA109
NEW 71
04 Mar 2024
ILLA88
NEW 85
28 Jan 2024
ILLA89
NEW 85
02 Feb 2023
ILLA81
NEW 91
17 Oct 2022
ILLA62
NEW 88
17 Dec 2021
ILLA97
NEW 96
15 May 2021
ILLA73
NEW 71
22 Feb 2021
ILLA102
NEW 88
02 Feb 2020
ILLA52
NEW 65
22 Dec 2019
ILLA89
NEW 91
09 Feb 2019
ILLA81
NEW 96
18 Jan 2019
ILLA107
NEW 96
02 Feb 2018
ILLA73
NEW 77
13 Jan 2018
ILLA90
NEW 79
20 Jan 2017
ILLA86
NEW 95
20 Nov 2016
ILLA109
NEW 78
14 Jan 2016
ILLA87
NEW 69
14 Oct 2015
ILLA96
NEW 75
11 Jan 2015
ILLA84
NEW 86
26 Oct 2014
ILLA77
NEW 79
21 Feb 2014
ILLA88
NEW 68
03 Nov 2013
ILLA89
NEW 97
26 Jan 2013
ILLA74
NEW 91
05 Jan 2013
ILLA76
NEW 78
11 Feb 2012
ILLA80
NEW 64
09 Oct 2011
ILLA82
NEW 98
27 Feb 2011
ILLA104
NEW 81
17 Dec 2010
ILLA85
NEW 89
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illawarra Hawks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
New Zealand Breakers winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
L
102-105
102
105
-3
95avg 86
H21/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
113-109 OT
113
109
+4
118avg 86
H04/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
76-93
76
93
-17
68avg 86
H06/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
100-85
100
85
+15
99avg 86
H11/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
75-97
75
97
-22
62avg 86
A18/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
78-84
78
84
-6
66avg 86
H20/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
84-108
84
108
-24
72avg 86
A25/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
92-90
92
90
+2
89avg 86
H31/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
96-78
96
78
+18
90avg 86
H03/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
113-124 OT
113
124
-11
108avg 86
A08/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-38
19-20
31-28
19-19
31-13
23-26
20-22
19-32
20-20
14-29
24-24
18-20
23-33
26-17
22-18
29-17
20-24
21-23
26-27
8-23
21-21
18-20
20-19
19-24
19-34
22-28
17-21
26-25
23-18
27-21
23-26
19-25
22-18
23-31
27-15
24-14
25-23
25-32
29-24
27-27
190.2Avg total
92.9Scored
97.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)90.196.9187.0-6.836%
Season at home (12)91.493.1184.5-1.750%
Season away (10)88.5101.5190.0-13.020%
Last 10 (10)92.997.3190.2-4.440%
Last 5 (5)92.696.8189.4-4.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)89.399.8189.1-10.523%
vs Similar ◀ (4)81.5100.0181.5-18.525%
vs Weaker (13)94.287.8182.1+6.462%
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Zealand BreakersAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBreakers
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
L
75-88
75
88
-13
56avg 80
A15/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
102-96
102
96
+6
100avg 80
A22/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
95-90
95
90
+5
94avg 80
H03/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
99-86
99
86
+13
93avg 80
H06/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
80-92
80
92
-12
68avg 80
A13/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
95-99
95
99
-4
84avg 80
A19/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
85-99
85
99
-14
67avg 80
A22/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
81-80 OT
81
80
+1
66avg 80
A26/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
91-99
91
99
-8
76avg 80
H04/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
62-103
62
103
-41
46avg 80
H09/01
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-22
24-21
22-21
15-24
25-17
22-27
30-22
25-30
26-27
23-20
19-27
27-16
28-14
24-27
28-29
19-16
20-26
21-18
21-27
18-21
23-19
20-29
29-21
23-30
20-26
21-30
22-23
22-20
25-18
12-18
14-19
20-16
23-28
22-20
29-32
17-19
17-23
4-27
19-25
22-28
179.7Avg total
86.5Scored
93.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)87.590.0177.5-2.535%
Season at home (11)87.588.9176.4-1.536%
Season away (12)87.591.0178.5-3.533%
Last 10 (10)86.593.2179.7-6.740%
Last 5 (5)82.896.0178.8-13.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)81.495.1176.4-13.77%
vs Similar ◀ (10)90.981.6172.5+9.370%
vs Weaker (6)95.594.3189.8+1.233%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -2.9-2.9Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: -1.2-1.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: -2.9-2.9Q2: -4.4-4.4Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: -1.2-1.2
Illawarra HawksNew Zealand Breakers
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
L
52-58
52
58
-6
H21/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
54-39
54
39
+15
H04/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
34-49
34
49
-15
H06/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H11/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A18/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H20/12
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A25/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
50-39
50
39
+11
H31/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
45-49
45
49
-4
H03/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A08/01
NBL
94.4Avg total
45.5Scored
48.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.646.492.0-0.843%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.645.792.2+0.950%-
Last 30 away (14)44.547.191.6-2.636%-
Last 10 (10)45.548.994.4-3.420%-
Last 5 (5)45.049.294.2-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)44.648.292.8-3.631%-
vs Similar ◀ (4)44.550.094.5-5.525%-
vs Weaker (13)46.943.490.3+3.562%-
This opponent (New Zealand Breakers) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
New Zealand BreakersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth
#5
L
38-43
38
43
-5
A15/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
47-44
47
44
+3
A22/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
49-47
49
47
+2
H03/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
52-41
52
41
+11
H06/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A13/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
43-48
43
48
-5
A19/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
41-56
41
56
-15
A22/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A26/12
NBL
Perth
#5
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H04/01
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
21-50
21
50
-29
H09/01
NBL
87.1Avg total
41.4Scored
45.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.744.688.3-0.947%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.943.988.8+1.056%-
Last 30 away (14)42.345.487.7-3.136%-
Last 10 (10)41.445.787.1-4.340%-
Last 5 (5)37.447.685.0-10.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)39.645.685.1-6.029%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)45.643.188.7+2.570%-
vs Weaker (6)50.044.894.8+5.250%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 94.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.0 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.628.0
54.3%
54.6%56.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.48.1
33.2%
33.3%24.3
🏀 Free throws19.113.8
72.3%
74.8%13.8
They take 76.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
New Zealand Breakerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

New Zealand Breakers: 85.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.8 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.024.4
53.0%
54.6%48.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.88.2
28.5%
33.3%24.6
🏀 Free throws17.712.0
67.8%
74.8%12.0
They take 74.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Illawarra Hawks
LWWLLLWLWL
New Zealand Breakers
LLWLLLWWWL
#8
League position
#7
-5.3
Net rating
-9.4
107.8
Offensive rating
105.3
113.1
Defensive rating
114.7
52.8%
Effective FG%
49.1%
49.4%
Opp. effective FG%
54.3%
16.1%
Turnover %
13.4%
33.2%
Off. rebound %
31.8%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.24
33.2%
3-point %
28.5%
53.2%
Assist %
52.8%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence107.8 · 105.3Defence113.1 · 114.7Shooting52.8% · 49.1%3-point %33.2% · 28.5%Ball care16.1% · 13.4%Off. rebounds33.2% · 31.8%Free throws0.25 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Illawarra Hawks   ■ New Zealand Breakers
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/26ASouth East Melbourne113-124 OT
03/01/26HCairns Taipans96-78
31/12/25HTasmania JackJumpers92-90
25/12/25ASydney84-108
20/12/25HAdelaide78-84
18/12/25AMelbourne United75-97
11/12/25HBrisbane Bullets100-85
06/12/25HCairns Taipans76-93
04/12/25HSouth East Melbourne113-109 OT
21/11/25HMelbourne United102-105
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/01/26HSydney62-103
04/01/26HPerth91-99
26/12/25ATasmania JackJumpers81-80 OT
22/12/25ABrisbane Bullets85-99
19/12/25ACairns Taipans95-99
13/12/25ASouth East Melbourne80-92
06/12/25HTasmania JackJumpers99-86
03/12/25HSydney95-90
22/11/25ACairns Taipans102-96
15/11/25APerth75-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL36%
HomeLWLWW50%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221210
Win %36%50%20%
Points / game90.191.488.5
Allowed / game96.993.1101.5
Point differential-6.8-1.7-13.0
Avg total187.0184.5190.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%33%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)50% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %9%8%10%
New Zealand Breakers
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL35%
HomeLWWLL36%
AwayWLLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231112
Win %35%36%33%
Points / game87.587.587.5
Allowed / game90.088.991.0
Point differential-2.5-1.5-3.5
Avg total177.5176.4178.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%27%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide2419579%91.885.2+6.7
2 South East Melbourne2416867%98.891.3+7.5
3 Melbourne United2415962%93.888.8+4.9
4 Sydney2314961%95.385.7+9.6
5 Perth24141058%89.886.8+3.0
6 Tasmania JackJumpers25121348%85.684.8+0.7
7 Illawarra Hawks2281436%90.196.9-6.8
8 New Zealand Breakers2381535%87.590.0-2.5
9 Cairns Taipans2361726%82.596.1-13.6
10 Brisbane Bullets2461825%84.995.4-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Illawarra Hawks2518233096
New Zealand Breakers28212230101
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