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Sydney vs Illawarra Hawks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 25 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 09:30
Final 108-84
34-19 28-22 21-17 25-26
Position#1
Record11-7
FormLWWWW
Points / game93.9
Allowed / game85.9
Sydney 🏆
Australia
vs
Illawarra Hawks
Australia
Position#8
Record6-12
FormWLWLL
Points / game88.7
Allowed / game96.2
AustraliaNBLRound 14· Qudos Bank Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Sydney v Illawarra Hawks
25 Dec 2026
SYDN v ILLA
upcoming
27 Sep 2026
SYDN121
ILLA100
29 Jan 2026
SYDN122
ILLA104
25 Dec 2025
SYDN108
ILLA84
25 Dec 2024
SYDN108
ILLA111
29 Sep 2024
SYDN89
ILLA96
11 Feb 2024
SYDN95
ILLA106
25 Dec 2023
SYDN90
ILLA94
15 Jan 2023
SYDN84
ILLA79
20 Nov 2022
SYDN83
ILLA82
01 May 2022
SYDN99
ILLA87
24 Apr 2022
SYDN84
ILLA87
11 Dec 2021
SYDN84
ILLA92
11 Mar 2021
SYDN69
ILLA89
14 Feb 2021
SYDN82
ILLA85
14 Feb 2020
SYDN98
ILLA82
17 Nov 2019
SYDN92
ILLA87
13 Jan 2019
SYDN84
ILLA96
02 Nov 2018
SYDN86
ILLA79
05 Nov 2017
SYDN83
ILLA93
15 Oct 2017
SYDN103
ILLA87
23 Dec 2016
SYDN75
ILLA87
24 Oct 2016
SYDN90
ILLA73
09 Jan 2016
SYDN90
ILLA114
17 Oct 2015
SYDN86
ILLA100
15 Feb 2015
SYDN73
ILLA75
11 Oct 2014
SYDN86
ILLA83
15 Feb 2014
SYDN84
ILLA102
14 Dec 2013
SYDN63
ILLA69
15 Dec 2012
SYDN70
ILLA63
09 Nov 2012
SYDN65
ILLA51
24 Mar 2012
SYDN68
ILLA77
23 Oct 2011
SYDN95
ILLA89
21 Jan 2011
SYDN81
ILLA71
12 Dec 2010
SYDN80
ILLA95
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
116-79
116
79
+37
117avg 85
A01/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
95-92
95
92
+3
85avg 85
A03/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
79-72
79
72
+7
71avg 85
H09/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
98-71
98
71
+27
85avg 85
A16/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
81-104
81
104
-23
71avg 85
A23/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
90-95
90
95
-5
79avg 85
A03/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
108-79
108
79
+29
102avg 85
A12/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
92-86 OT
92
86
+6
74avg 85
A14/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
97-93 OT
97
93
+4
84avg 85
H17/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
119-77
119
77
+42
119avg 85
H21/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-17
22-28
32-21
27-13
30-25
24-25
23-19
18-23
17-25
22-16
13-13
27-18
18-14
35-18
18-18
27-21
24-27
16-33
18-15
23-29
27-26
20-23
27-19
16-27
26-25
18-17
32-21
32-16
24-25
21-25
24-20
15-14
23-29
20-27
23-9
19-20
28-23
29-18
34-19
28-17
182.3Avg total
97.5Scored
84.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)93.985.9179.8+8.061%
Season at home (8)92.882.9175.6+9.962%
Season away (10)94.888.3183.1+6.560%
Last 10 (10)97.584.8182.3+12.780%
Last 5 (5)101.286.0187.2+15.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)91.5103.0194.5-11.50%
vs Similar (4)99.596.8196.2+2.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)93.387.8181.1+5.558%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
W
107-93
107
93
+14
107avg 87
H05/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
107-90
107
90
+17
108avg 87
A07/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
71-98
71
98
-27
66avg 87
H16/11
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
85-97
85
97
-12
67avg 87
A19/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
102-105
102
105
-3
95avg 87
H21/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
113-109 OT
113
109
+4
118avg 87
H04/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
76-93
76
93
-17
68avg 87
H06/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
100-85
100
85
+15
99avg 87
H11/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
75-97
75
97
-22
62avg 87
A18/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
78-84
78
84
-6
66avg 87
H20/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-22
25-21
22-25
28-25
25-22
27-26
29-20
26-22
14-18
18-35
18-18
21-27
22-21
27-23
15-27
21-26
33-38
19-20
31-28
19-19
31-13
23-26
20-22
19-32
20-20
14-29
24-24
18-20
23-33
26-17
22-18
29-17
20-24
21-23
26-27
8-23
21-21
18-20
20-19
19-24
186.5Avg total
91.4Scored
95.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)88.796.2184.9-7.533%
Season at home (10)90.994.9185.8-4.040%
Season away (8)86.097.9183.9-11.925%
Last 10 (10)91.495.1186.5-3.740%
Last 5 (5)88.493.6182.0-5.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)87.696.8184.5-9.227%
vs Similar (3)78.0103.3181.3-25.30%
vs Weaker (16)96.689.4185.9+7.262%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +7.0+7.0Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: -2.7-2.7
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +1.6+1.6Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -2.2-2.2Q3Q3: +7.0+7.0Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: -2.7-2.7
SydneyIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#10
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A01/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A03/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H09/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#8
W
53-32
53
32
+21
A16/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
L
40-60
40
60
-20
A23/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
L
47-49
47
49
-2
A03/12
NBL
Perth
#5
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A12/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
45-50
45
50
-5
A14/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
43-56
43
56
-13
H17/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
57-41
57
41
+16
H21/12
NBL
94.5Avg total
47.9Scored
46.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.047.794.7-0.753%-
Last 30 at home (17)46.548.595.0-2.153%-
Last 30 away (13)47.746.794.4+1.054%-
Last 10 (10)47.946.694.5+1.350%-
Last 5 (5)47.247.694.8-0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)48.554.0102.5-5.50%-
vs Similar (4)49.554.5104.0-5.025%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)46.546.192.5+0.462%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#4
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H05/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
52-48
52
48
+4
A07/11
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
32-53
32
53
-21
H16/11
NBL
Adelaide
#3
W
49-44
49
44
+5
A19/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
52-58
52
58
-6
H21/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
54-39
54
39
+15
H04/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
34-49
34
49
-15
H06/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#10
L
49-50
49
50
-1
H11/12
NBL
Melbourne United
#4
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A18/12
NBL
Adelaide
#3
L
39-41
39
41
-2
H20/12
NBL
93.1Avg total
45.9Scored
47.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.846.092.8+0.747%-
Last 30 at home (17)48.546.394.8+2.253%-
Last 30 away (13)44.545.790.2-1.238%-
Last 10 (10)45.947.293.1-1.340%-
Last 5 (5)43.445.288.6-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (11)44.546.490.8-1.936%-
vs Similar (3)42.753.796.3-11.00%-
vs Weaker (16)49.144.493.5+4.862%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 96.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.322.5
52.0%
54.6%45.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.911.7
35.6%
33.3%35.1
🏀 Free throws20.616.0
77.7%
74.8%16.0
They take 76.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 92.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.8 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.826.9
53.0%
54.6%53.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.88.2
33.1%
33.3%24.6
🏀 Free throws18.214.0
76.9%
74.8%14.0
They take 75.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney
WWWWLLWWWW
Illawarra Hawks
LLWLWLLLWW
#1
League position
#8
+14.4
Net rating
-4.5
116.5
Offensive rating
107.0
102.0
Defensive rating
111.6
52.6%
Effective FG%
51.9%
49.6%
Opp. effective FG%
48.9%
12.2%
Turnover %
17.5%
28.8%
Off. rebound %
32.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.24
35.6%
3-point %
33.1%
59.9%
Assist %
56.7%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence116.5 · 107.0Defence102.0 · 111.6Shooting52.6% · 51.9%3-point %35.6% · 33.1%Ball care12.2% · 17.5%Off. rebounds28.8% · 32.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Sydney   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Sydney wins
6
Illawarra Hawks wins
DateGameScore
16/11/25Illawarra Hawks v Sydney71-98
07/02/25Illawarra Hawks v Sydney95-75
25/12/24Sydney v Illawarra Hawks108-111
16/11/24Illawarra Hawks v Sydney86-79
29/09/24Sydney v Illawarra Hawks89-96
11/02/24Sydney v Illawarra Hawks95-106
25/12/23Sydney v Illawarra Hawks90-94
03/11/23Illawarra Hawks v Sydney83-103
30/09/23Illawarra Hawks v Sydney81-96
15/01/23Sydney v Illawarra Hawks84-79
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/25HCairns Taipans119-77
17/12/25HAdelaide97-93 OT
14/12/25AMelbourne United92-86 OT
12/12/25APerth108-79
03/12/25ANew Zealand Breakers90-95
23/11/25ATasmania JackJumpers81-104
16/11/25AIllawarra Hawks98-71
09/11/25HNew Zealand Breakers79-72
03/11/25AMelbourne United95-92
01/11/25ABrisbane Bullets116-79
Illawarra Hawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/12/25HAdelaide78-84
18/12/25AMelbourne United75-97
11/12/25HBrisbane Bullets100-85
06/12/25HCairns Taipans76-93
04/12/25HSouth East Melbourne113-109 OT
21/11/25HMelbourne United102-105
19/11/25AAdelaide85-97
16/11/25HSydney71-98
07/11/25ACairns Taipans107-90
05/11/25HMelbourne United107-93

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW61%
HomeWLWWW62%
AwayWLLWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %61%62%60%
Points / game93.992.894.8
Allowed / game85.982.988.3
Point differential+8.0+9.9+6.5
Avg total179.8175.6183.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%38%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %11%12%10%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL33%
HomeLWLWL40%
AwayWLWLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18108
Win %33%40%25%
Points / game88.790.986.0
Allowed / game96.294.997.9
Point differential-7.5-4.0-11.9
Avg total184.9185.8183.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%30%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %6%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide2016480%92.885.8+7.0
2 South East Melbourne1913668%96.487.9+8.5
3 Melbourne United2114767%94.889.0+5.9
4 Sydney1811761%93.985.9+8.0
5 Perth2011955%88.586.2+2.3
6 Tasmania JackJumpers2091145%85.985.8+0.1
7 New Zealand Breakers2071335%88.989.4-0.5
8 Illawarra Hawks1861233%88.796.2-7.5
9 Brisbane Bullets2061430%86.095.5-9.5
10 Cairns Taipans2051525%81.595.5-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sydney34282125108
Illawarra Hawks1922172684
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