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Murcia vs AEK Athens Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 12 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 100-89
35-15 20-29 24-19 21-26
Position#2
Record8-2
FormWLWLW
Points / game84.7
Allowed / game72.7
Murcia 🏆
vs
Position#33
Record5-5
FormLLWLL
Points / game86.2
Allowed / game81.6
EuropeChampions LeagueRound 5· Palacio de Deportes de Murcia
European cup2023
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Murcia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
AEK Athens winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

MurciaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMurcia
Date
Competition
Hapoel Holon
#10
W
78-61
78
61
+17
73avg 72
H23/01
Champions League
Tenerife
#5
L
73-75
73
75
-2
67avg 72
A27/01
ACB
Promitheas
#13
W
90-81
90
81
+9
76avg 72
H30/01
Champions League
Bilbao
#13
W
96-76
96
76
+20
88avg 72
H03/02
ACB
AEK Athens
#33
W
84-79
84
79
+5
81avg 72
A06/02
Champions League
Granada
#17
W
91-78
91
78
+13
88avg 72
H11/02
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
79-84
79
84
-5
66avg 72
A15/02
Spanish Cup
Manresa
#9
W
88-83
88
83
+5
74avg 72
A02/03
ACB
Promitheas
#13
L
78-79
78
79
-1
73avg 72
A05/03
Champions League
Basquet Girona
#14
W
81-73
81
73
+8
75avg 72
H09/03
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-11
31-17
16-16
18-17
18-17
11-19
24-16
20-23
26-18
20-16
19-12
25-35
18-19
32-13
26-18
20-26
27-25
15-14
20-21
22-19
24-12
22-20
28-18
17-28
17-25
17-19
22-19
23-21
21-24
26-14
21-25
20-20
16-13
20-26
19-20
23-20
21-19
27-13
18-23
15-18
160.7Avg total
83.8Scored
76.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)84.772.7157.4+12.080%
Season at home (5)88.470.6159.0+17.8100%
Season away (5)81.074.8155.8+6.260%
Last 10 (10)83.876.9160.7+6.970%
Last 5 (5)83.479.4162.8+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)69.074.5143.5-5.550%
vs Similar (8)81.981.0162.9+0.950%
vs Weaker ◀ (19)85.274.2159.4+10.979%
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK AthensLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAthens
Date
Competition
Promitheas
#13
L
79-80
79
80
-1
74avg 77
A23/01
Champions League
AS Karditsas
#12
W
95-86
95
86
+9
91avg 77
A27/01
Basket League
Hapoel Holon
#10
L
68-79
68
79
-11
56avg 77
A30/01
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#15
L
80-103
80
103
-23
64avg 77
A03/02
Basket League
Murcia
#2
L
79-84
79
84
-5
67avg 77
H06/02
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#2
L
69-89
69
89
-20
57avg 77
H12/02
Basket League
Panathinaikos
#12
L
72-79
72
79
-7
62avg 77
A15/02
Greek Cup
PAOK
#10
W
94-85
94
85
+9
94avg 77
A02/03
Basket League
Hapoel Holon
#10
L
108-112 OT
108
112
-4
101avg 77
H05/03
Champions League
Promitheas
#7
L
87-91
87
91
-4
87avg 77
H09/03
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-20
22-15
18-27
21-18
26-15
26-32
23-15
20-24
26-23
12-23
13-14
17-19
19-27
17-24
19-29
25-23
25-27
14-15
21-20
19-22
16-28
19-20
18-20
16-21
15-20
15-19
18-20
24-20
22-23
22-22
23-16
27-24
18-15
20-21
19-25
20-16
14-17
18-23
29-20
26-31
171.9Avg total
83.1Scored
88.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)86.281.6167.8+4.650%
Season at home (5)93.483.6177.0+9.860%
Season away (5)79.079.6158.6-0.640%
Last 10 (10)83.188.8171.9-5.720%
Last 5 (5)86.091.2177.2-5.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)80.588.8169.2-8.20%
vs Similar (10)86.286.4172.6-0.240%
vs Weaker (11)89.678.1167.7+11.582%
This opponent (Murcia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: +5.0+5.0Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: -2.4-2.4Q4: -0.3-0.3
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: -1.6-1.6Q2Q2: +5.0+5.0Q2: -2.9-2.9Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: -2.4-2.4Q4: -0.3-0.3
MurciaAEK Athens
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
MurciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Hapoel Holon
#10
W
44-28
44
28
+16
H23/01
Champions League
Tenerife
#5
L
29-36
29
36
-7
A27/01
ACB
Promitheas
#13
W
46-34
46
34
+12
H30/01
Champions League
Bilbao
#13
W
50-32
50
32
+18
H03/02
ACB
AEK Athens
#33
W
42-39
42
39
+3
A06/02
Champions League
Granada
#17
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H11/02
ACB
Real Madrid
#1
L
34-44
34
44
-10
A15/02
Spanish Cup
Manresa
#9
W
47-38
47
38
+9
A02/03
ACB
Promitheas
#13
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A05/03
Champions League
Basquet Girona
#14
W
48-32
48
32
+16
H09/03
ACB
77.6Avg total
42.2Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.236.978.1+4.367%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.134.176.2+8.180%-
Last 30 away (15)40.339.779.9+0.653%-
Last 10 (10)42.235.477.6+6.870%-
Last 5 (5)42.237.079.2+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)31.535.066.5-3.550%-
vs Similar (8)39.240.880.0-1.538%-
vs Weaker ◀ (19)43.435.178.5+8.484%-
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AEK AthensLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Promitheas
#13
W
40-35
40
35
+5
A23/01
Champions League
AS Karditsas
#12
W
52-47
52
47
+5
A27/01
Basket League
Hapoel Holon
#10
L
38-46
38
46
-8
A30/01
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#15
L
36-51
36
51
-15
A03/02
Basket League
Murcia
#2
L
39-42
39
42
-3
H06/02
Champions League
Panathinaikos
#2
L
35-48
35
48
-13
H12/02
Basket League
Panathinaikos
#12
L
30-39
30
39
-9
A15/02
Greek Cup
PAOK
#10
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A02/03
Basket League
Hapoel Holon
#10
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H05/03
Champions League
Promitheas
#7
L
32-40
32
40
-8
H09/03
Basket League
81.3Avg total
38.4Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.042.082.0-2.043%-
Last 30 at home (14)43.141.584.6+1.657%-
Last 30 away (16)37.442.479.8-5.131%-
Last 10 (10)38.442.981.3-4.530%-
Last 5 (5)35.841.677.4-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)36.245.481.6-9.10%-
vs Similar (10)42.440.282.6+2.270%-
vs Weaker (11)41.541.583.0+0.155%-
This opponent (Murcia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Murciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Murcia: 82.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.520.3
55.6%
51.4%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.79.0
35.0%
34.9%27.0
🏀 Free throws20.015.2
76.0%
74.5%15.2
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
AEK Athenstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Athens: 82.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.9 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.5 points a game
47%
34%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.022.8
51.8%
51.4%45.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.66.3
30.6%
34.9%18.9
🏀 Free throws23.217.6
75.9%
74.5%17.6
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Murcia
WLWLWWWWLW
AEK Athens
LLWLLLLLWL
#2
League position
#33
+9.2
Net rating
-7.7
110.5
Offensive rating
107.1
101.3
Defensive rating
114.8
54.3%
Effective FG%
49.9%
49.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.2%
19.3%
Turnover %
18.5%
31.7%
Off. rebound %
33.2%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.36
35.0%
3-point %
30.6%
62.1%
Assist %
58.1%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence110.5 · 107.1Defence101.3 · 114.8Shooting54.3% · 49.9%3-point %35.0% · 30.6%Ball care19.3% · 18.5%Off. rebounds31.7% · 33.2%Free throws0.32 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)70% · 20%
■ Murcia   ■ AEK Athens
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Murcia wins
1
AEK Athens wins
DateGameScore
06/02/24AEK Athens v Murcia79-84
04/05/18AEK Athens v Murcia77-75
Murcialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/24HBasquet Girona81-73
05/03/24APromitheas78-79
02/03/24AManresa88-83
15/02/24AReal Madrid79-84
11/02/24HGranada91-78
06/02/24AAEK Athens84-79
03/02/24HBilbao96-76
30/01/24HPromitheas90-81
27/01/24ATenerife73-75
23/01/24HHapoel Holon78-61
AEK Athenslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/24HPromitheas87-91
05/03/24HHapoel Holon108-112 OT
02/03/24APAOK94-85
15/02/24APanathinaikos72-79
12/02/24HPanathinaikos69-89
06/02/24HMurcia79-84
03/02/24AKolossos Rhodes80-103
30/01/24AHapoel Holon68-79
27/01/24AAS Karditsas95-86
23/01/24APromitheas79-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Murcia
Champions League 2023
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL80%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %80%100%60%
Points / game84.788.481.0
Allowed / game72.770.674.8
Point differential+12.0+17.8+6.2
Avg total157.4159.0155.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%80%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
AEK Athens
Champions League 2023
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL50%
HomeWWWLL60%
AwayWWLLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %50%60%40%
Points / game86.293.479.0
Allowed / game81.683.679.6
Point differential+4.6+9.8-0.6
Avg total167.8177.0158.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%40%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)33% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %10%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Murcia108280%84.772.7+12.0
2 Unicaja108280%83.571.8+11.7
3 Hapoel Jerusalem108280%85.074.5+10.5
4 Tenerife107370%84.178.5+5.6
5 Obradoiro CAB32167%80.768.0+12.7
6 Promitheas128467%83.277.8+5.5
7 Brindisi32167%74.772.3+2.3
8 Norrkoping32167%77.776.3+1.3
9 Bonn117464%82.978.0+4.9
10 Tortona85362%82.481.2+1.1
11 Cholet1610662%82.382.6-0.3
12 Ludwigsburg148657%82.878.8+4.0
13 Dijon116555%81.777.7+4.0
14 Galatasaray137654%86.185.5+0.5
15 Hapoel Holon137654%76.876.7+0.2
16 Strasbourg137654%79.081.4-2.4
17 Nes Ziona21150%83.067.5+15.5
18 Bakken Bears21150%85.578.5+7.0
19 AEK Athens105550%86.281.6+4.6
20 Rytas84450%85.181.0+4.1
21 Legia21150%68.066.5+1.5
22 Den Bosch21150%79.581.0-1.5
23 Fribourg Olympic21150%58.060.5-2.5
24 Peristeri126650%80.283.1-2.8
25 Varese21150%80.583.5-3.0
26 Bursaspor63350%73.278.8-5.7
27 AEK Larnaca21150%66.576.5-10.0
28 Tofas136746%86.183.2+2.9
29 Karsiyaka136746%83.183.2-0.1
30 Benfica94544%81.778.7+3.0
31 Breogan94544%78.178.6-0.4
32 Oostende94544%75.079.8-4.8
33 Darussafaka94544%78.683.7-5.1
34 PAOK94544%75.282.7-7.4
35 Le Mans83538%77.979.0-1.1
36 Oldenburg62433%84.082.5+1.5
37 Sassari93633%85.689.2-3.7
38 Szczecin62433%78.882.7-3.8
39 VEF Riga62433%71.876.0-4.2
40 Szombathely62433%76.081.3-5.3
41 FMP Beograd1010%71.073.0-2.0
42 CSM Oradea1010%74.077.0-3.0
43 Antwerp Giants1010%72.076.0-4.0
44 BC Kalev/Cramo1010%78.082.0-4.0
45 Jonava1010%78.083.0-5.0
46 Caledonia Gladiators1010%51.057.0-6.0
47 Levice1010%66.074.0-8.0
48 Gottingen1010%84.096.0-12.0
49 Igokea6060%72.587.0-14.5
50 Peja1010%79.0103.0-24.0
51 Opava6060%72.0102.0-30.0
52 Mornar Bar1010%56.090.0-34.0
53 Karhu Basket1010%56.092.0-36.0
54 TSU1010%62.0122.0-60.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 54 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Murcia35202421100
AEK Athens1529192689
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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