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Nagasaki vs Saga Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 20 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 10:00
Scheduled
Position#21
Record6-12
FormLLLLL
Points / game77.3
Allowed / game82.2
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.1/10
Above normal
5.9/10
Above normal
Position#25
Record1-15
FormLLLLL
Points / game77.3
Allowed / game95.6
JapanB League· Happiness Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Nagasaki v Saga
20 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
19 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
11 Oct 2025
NAGA85
SAGA73
10 Oct 2025
NAGA76
SAGA67
23 Apr 2025
NAGA68
SAGA78
20 Mar 2024
NAGA71
SAGA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Saga win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Saga
#25
W
84-66
84
66
+18
79avg 79
A21/10
B League
Shiga
#16
L
85-89
85
89
-4
83avg 79
A23/10
B League
Ryukyu
#13
W
101-84
101
84
+17
100avg 79
H26/10
B League
Macau Hou Chon
#11
W
97-76
97
76
+21
no box
A28/10
EASL
Kobe
#24
W
81-71
81
71
+10
80avg 79
A31/10
B League
Kobe
#24
L
87-90
87
90
-3
86avg 79
A01/11
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
L
73-80
73
80
-7
no box
A06/11
B League
Sendai
#5
L
87-107
87
107
-20
no box
H09/11
B League
Alvark
#4
L
73-82
73
82
-9
no box
A11/11
B League
Chiba
#14
L
80-86
80
86
-6
no box
A14/11
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-20
24-15
17-17
19-14
14-21
29-16
9-27
33-25
24-15
26-20
28-22
23-27
30-21
25-25
14-15
28-15
11-19
22-19
25-19
23-14
17-24
22-17
34-22
14-27
18-20
23-16
18-21
14-23
33-28
26-30
14-28
14-21
24-22
16-11
20-23
13-26
16-24
21-23
21-22
22-17
167.9Avg total
84.8Scored
83.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)77.382.2159.4-4.933%
Season at home (8)78.080.8158.8-2.850%
Season away (10)76.783.3160.0-6.620%
Last 10 (10)84.883.1167.9+1.740%
Last 5 (5)80.089.0169.0-9.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)75.786.6162.4-10.918%
vs Similar (7)79.679.7159.3-0.143%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)85.073.8158.8+11.283%
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Gunma
#6
L
61-72
61
72
-11
52avg 72
H12/10
B League
Levanga Hokkaido
#9
L
90-109
90
109
-19
71avg 72
H16/10
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
70-115
70
115
-45
58avg 72
A18/10
B League
Nagasaki
#21
L
66-84
66
84
-18
58avg 72
H21/10
B League
Alvark
#4
L
88-112
88
112
-24
72avg 72
H26/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#3
L
83-100
83
100
-17
72avg 72
A31/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#3
L
78-84
78
84
-6
60avg 72
A01/11
B League
Chiba
#14
L
103-111
103
111
-8
no box
H08/11
B League
Brave Thunders
#22
L
72-90
72
90
-18
no box
A13/11
B League
Levanga Hokkaido
#9
L
70-107
70
107
-37
no box
A15/11
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-16
12-16
17-17
17-23
24-28
21-26
19-23
26-32
18-29
21-33
16-24
15-29
20-24
15-24
17-17
14-19
13-33
17-28
30-21
28-30
16-37
31-21
11-24
25-18
13-21
28-15
16-21
21-27
20-34
21-24
26-25
36-28
26-24
14-26
19-27
13-13
23-21
16-34
22-23
9-29
176.5Avg total
78.1Scored
98.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)77.395.6172.9-18.36%
Season at home (9)78.496.3174.8-17.90%
Season away (7)75.994.7170.6-18.914%
Last 10 (10)78.198.4176.5-20.30%
Last 5 (5)81.298.4179.6-17.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)77.793.3171.1-15.610%
vs Similar (3)75.776.3152.0-0.767%
vs Weaker (7)87.776.7164.4+11.086%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -7.9-7.9Q2Q2: +4.2+4.2Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -4.4-4.4
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -7.9-7.9Q2Q2: +4.2+4.2Q2: -5.1-5.1Q3Q3: -1.6-1.6Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -4.4-4.4
NagasakiSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Saga
#25
W
48-35
48
35
+13
A21/10
B League
Shiga
#16
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A23/10
B League
Ryukyu
#13
W
50-35
50
35
+15
H26/10
B League
Macau Hou Chon
#11
W
55-46
55
46
+9
A28/10
EASL
Kobe
#24
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A31/10
B League
Kobe
#24
L
39-41
39
41
-2
A01/11
B League
Hiroshima D.
#2
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A06/11
B League
Sendai
#5
W
59-58
59
58
+1
H09/11
B League
Alvark
#4
W
40-33
40
33
+7
A11/11
B League
Chiba
#14
L
37-47
37
47
-10
A14/11
B League
85.1Avg total
44.5Scored
40.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.739.380.0+1.457%-
Last 30 at home (18)41.339.680.9+1.756%-
Last 30 away (12)39.838.878.6+0.958%-
Last 10 (10)44.540.685.1+3.970%-
Last 5 (5)43.243.086.2+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)40.540.480.8+0.164%-
vs Similar (7)37.039.676.6-2.629%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)43.038.281.2+4.867%-
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Gunma
#6
L
27-32
27
32
-5
H12/10
B League
Levanga Hokkaido
#9
L
45-54
45
54
-9
H16/10
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
39-62
39
62
-23
A18/10
B League
Nagasaki
#21
L
35-48
35
48
-13
H21/10
B League
Alvark
#4
L
30-61
30
61
-31
H26/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#3
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A31/10
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#3
W
41-36
41
36
+5
A01/11
B League
Chiba
#14
L
41-58
41
58
-17
H08/11
B League
Brave Thunders
#22
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A13/11
B League
Levanga Hokkaido
#9
L
39-55
39
55
-16
A15/11
B League
89.8Avg total
38.4Scored
51.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.944.985.8-4.137%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.247.085.2-8.814%-
Last 30 away (16)43.243.186.3+0.156%-
Last 10 (10)38.451.489.8-13.010%-
Last 5 (5)41.651.493.0-9.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (20)39.047.986.8-8.920%-
vs Similar (3)41.336.377.7+5.067%-
vs Weaker (7)46.140.386.4+5.971%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 79.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.818.9
54.3%
53.6%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.810.3
35.8%
32.9%30.9
🏀 Free throws14.110.8
76.6%
73.8%10.8
They take 63.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 77.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.6 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.418.9
51.9%
53.6%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.19.6
30.9%
32.9%28.8
🏀 Free throws14.911.0
73.8%
73.8%11.0
They take 67.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
LLLLLWWWLW
Saga
LLLLLLLLLL
#21
League position
#25
+2.1
Net rating
-18.0
93.2
Offensive rating
90.3
91.1
Defensive rating
108.3
54.0%
Effective FG%
49.3%
48.6%
Opp. effective FG%
58.2%
15.9%
Turnover %
11.1%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.22
35.8%
3-point %
30.9%
65.8%
Assist %
60.4%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
0%

Profile

Offence93.2 · 90.3Defence91.1 · 108.3Shooting54.0% · 49.3%3-point %35.8% · 30.9%Ball care15.9% · 11.1%Free throws0.22 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)40% · 0%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Nagasaki wins
3
Saga wins
DateGameScore
21/10/26Saga v Nagasaki66-84
11/10/25Nagasaki v Saga85-73
10/10/25Nagasaki v Saga76-67
23/04/25Nagasaki v Saga68-78
05/03/25Saga v Nagasaki86-92
02/12/24Saga v Nagasaki78-93
01/12/24Saga v Nagasaki80-51
14/04/24Saga v Nagasaki73-80
13/04/24Saga v Nagasaki61-63
20/03/24Nagasaki v Saga71-80
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AChiba80-86
11/11/26AAlvark73-82
09/11/26HSendai87-107
06/11/26AHiroshima D.73-80
01/11/26AKobe87-90
31/10/26AKobe81-71
28/10/26AMacau Hou Chon97-76
26/10/26HRyukyu101-84
23/10/26AShiga85-89
21/10/26ASaga84-66
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ALevanga Hokkaido70-107
13/11/26ABrave Thunders72-90
08/11/26HChiba103-111
01/11/26ASeaHorses Mikawa78-84
31/10/26ASeaHorses Mikawa83-100
26/10/26HAlvark88-112
21/10/26HNagasaki66-84
18/10/26AKyoto70-115
16/10/26HLevanga Hokkaido90-109
12/10/26HGunma61-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL33%
HomeWWLWL50%
AwayWLLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %33%50%20%
Points / game77.378.076.7
Allowed / game82.280.883.3
Point differential-4.9-2.8-6.6
Avg total159.4158.8160.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%38%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)100% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %6%0%10%
Saga
B League 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL6%
HomeLLLLL0%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1697
Win %6%0%14%
Points / game77.378.475.9
Allowed / game95.696.394.7
Point differential-18.3-17.9-18.9
Avg total172.9174.8170.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Diamond Dolphins1412286%91.278.7+12.5
2 Hiroshima D.1613381%89.982.1+7.9
3 SeaHorses Mikawa1411379%91.979.9+11.9
4 Alvark1814478%92.982.3+10.6
5 Sendai1814478%88.680.2+8.4
6 Gunma1612475%82.873.8+9.1
7 NeoPhoenix129375%87.481.6+5.8
8 Tokyo Sunrockers1812667%90.879.9+10.9
9 Levanga Hokkaido1711665%97.393.2+4.1
10 Kyoto169756%84.379.2+5.1
11 Toyama179853%82.688.4-5.8
12 Ibaraki Robots189950%83.779.8+3.9
13 Ryukyu168850%83.481.6+1.8
14 Chiba189950%92.295.1-2.9
15 Shimane167944%83.581.1+2.4
16 Shiga167944%86.488.8-2.4
17 Utsunomiya Brex167944%81.183.6-2.4
18 Yokohama1771041%78.383.8-5.5
19 Altiri Chiba1871139%79.884.7-4.8
20 Shinshu1761135%83.986.8-2.9
21 Nagasaki1861233%77.382.2-4.9
22 Brave Thunders1751229%79.283.9-4.8
23 Akita1851328%83.390.7-7.4
24 Kobe1641225%79.987.3-7.4
25 Saga161156%77.395.6-18.3
26 Osaka171166%70.490.4-20.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
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