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Nagasaki vs Saga Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 10 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 76-67
15-21 28-16 19-15 14-15
Position#1
Record1-1
FormLWWLW
Points / game98.0
Allowed / game82.5
vs
Position#12
Record2-0
FormWLLWW
Points / game94.5
Allowed / game79.5
JapanB League· Nagasaki Prefectural Sports Center
Other2025-26
Meetings · Nagasaki v Saga
20 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
19 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
11 Oct 2025
NAGA85
SAGA73
10 Oct 2025
NAGA76
SAGA67
23 Apr 2025
NAGA68
SAGA78
20 Mar 2024
NAGA71
SAGA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Shiga
#24
W
69-67 OT
69
67
+2
63avg 69
H16/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
80-90
80
90
-10
75avg 69
A19/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
66-87
66
87
-21
53avg 69
A20/04
B League
Saga
#18
L
68-78
68
78
-10
63avg 69
H23/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
71-87
71
87
-16
65avg 69
H26/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
66-79
66
79
-13
49avg 69
H27/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
89-72
89
72
+17
81avg 69
A03/05
B League
Osaka
#13
W
85-76
85
76
+9
78avg 69
A04/05
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
L
94-97
94
97
-3
82avg 69
A04/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
102-68
102
68
+34
92avg 69
A05/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-20
22-16
5-15
16-10
20-27
20-21
16-22
24-20
24-16
13-26
16-23
13-22
16-13
24-21
14-20
14-24
17-23
21-17
15-29
18-18
13-17
17-18
21-22
15-22
20-23
20-20
23-15
26-14
25-19
18-25
22-17
20-15
30-28
20-27
27-25
17-17
31-21
18-18
34-13
19-16
159.1Avg total
79.0Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)98.082.5180.5+15.550%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)98.082.5180.5+15.550%
Last 10 (10)79.080.1159.1-1.140%
Last 5 (5)87.278.4165.6+8.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)75.581.6157.1-6.129%
vs Similar (9)81.879.0160.8+2.867%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)91.580.2171.8+11.275%
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Kyoto
#10
L
74-85
74
85
-11
68avg 70
A16/04
B League
Shimane
#8
W
80-61
80
61
+19
81avg 70
H18/04
B League
Shimane
#8
L
66-82
66
82
-16
55avg 70
H19/04
B League
Nagasaki
#16
W
78-68
78
68
+10
69avg 70
A23/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
90-79
90
79
+11
92avg 70
H26/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
106-82
106
82
+24
109avg 70
H27/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
71-87
71
87
-16
56avg 70
A03/05
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
76-85
76
85
-9
67avg 70
A04/05
B League
Shiga
#18
W
92-68
92
68
+24
88avg 70
H04/10
B League
Shiga
#18
W
97-91
97
91
+6
101avg 70
H05/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-21
15-22
15-19
26-23
18-10
25-21
17-15
20-15
22-17
22-19
11-20
11-26
13-16
21-24
20-14
24-14
15-14
30-15
30-23
15-27
28-26
25-28
19-9
34-19
21-27
20-25
14-13
16-22
23-14
18-21
20-18
15-32
17-24
32-14
26-14
17-16
28-20
23-25
19-23
27-23
161.8Avg total
83.0Scored
78.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)94.579.5174.0+15.0100%
Season at home (2)94.579.5174.0+15.0100%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)83.078.8161.8+4.260%
Last 5 (5)88.482.6171.0+5.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)73.982.7156.6-8.819%
vs Similar (9)85.682.9168.4+2.756%
vs Weaker (5)90.876.0166.8+14.8100%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: -1.2-1.2
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: -1.2-1.2
NagasakiSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shiga
#24
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H16/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A19/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A20/04
B League
Saga
#18
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H23/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H26/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H27/04
B League
Osaka
#13
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A03/05
B League
Osaka
#13
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A04/05
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A04/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
49-39
49
39
+10
A05/10
B League
82.3Avg total
40.7Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.541.381.8-0.840%-
Last 30 at home (12)39.240.379.5-1.250%-
Last 30 away (18)41.441.983.4-0.533%-
Last 10 (10)40.741.682.3-0.930%-
Last 5 (5)42.443.285.6-0.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)36.940.377.2-3.424%-
vs Similar (9)44.641.786.2+2.967%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)47.044.891.8+2.250%-
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Kyoto
#10
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A16/04
B League
Shimane
#8
W
43-31
43
31
+12
H18/04
B League
Shimane
#8
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H19/04
B League
Nagasaki
#16
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A23/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
45-29
45
29
+16
H26/04
B League
Osaka
#13
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H27/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A03/05
B League
Ryukyu
#3
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A04/05
B League
Shiga
#18
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H04/10
B League
Shiga
#18
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H05/10
B League
83.7Avg total
43.4Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.941.883.7+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (17)45.241.987.2+3.359%-
Last 30 away (13)37.641.579.2-3.931%-
Last 10 (10)43.440.383.7+3.160%-
Last 5 (5)47.044.891.8+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)39.040.279.2-1.244%-
vs Similar (9)43.945.189.0-1.244%-
vs Weaker (5)47.840.688.4+7.260%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 77.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.718.9
50.1%
53.1%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.09.6
34.3%
33.7%28.8
🏀 Free throws15.611.2
71.8%
73.1%11.2
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 82.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.218.8
55.0%
53.1%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.210.6
32.9%
33.7%31.8
🏀 Free throws17.312.8
74.0%
73.1%12.8
They take 66.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
WLWWLLLLLW
Saga
WWLLWWWLWL
#1
League position
#12
-2.0
Net rating
+6.2
103.8
Offensive rating
111.6
105.8
Defensive rating
105.3
50.7%
Effective FG%
52.3%
51.1%
Opp. effective FG%
48.9%
17.7%
Turnover %
14.4%
29.0%
Off. rebound %
28.3%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.26
34.3%
3-point %
32.9%
60.4%
Assist %
74.1%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence103.8 · 111.6Defence105.8 · 105.3Shooting50.7% · 52.3%3-point %34.3% · 32.9%Ball care17.7% · 14.4%Off. rebounds29.0% · 28.3%Free throws0.24 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Nagasaki wins
3
Saga wins
DateGameScore
23/04/25Nagasaki v Saga68-78
05/03/25Saga v Nagasaki86-92
02/12/24Saga v Nagasaki78-93
01/12/24Saga v Nagasaki80-51
14/04/24Saga v Nagasaki73-80
13/04/24Saga v Nagasaki61-63
20/03/24Nagasaki v Saga71-80
06/12/23Saga v Nagasaki81-91
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/10/25AAltiri Chiba102-68
04/10/25AAltiri Chiba94-97
04/05/25AOsaka85-76
03/05/25AOsaka89-72
27/04/25HKyoto66-79
26/04/25HKyoto71-87
23/04/25HSaga68-78
20/04/25ARyukyu66-87
19/04/25ARyukyu80-90
16/04/25HShiga69-67 OT
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/10/25HShiga97-91
04/10/25HShiga92-68
04/05/25ARyukyu76-85
03/05/25ARyukyu71-87
27/04/25HOsaka106-82
26/04/25HOsaka90-79
23/04/25ANagasaki78-68
19/04/25HShimane66-82
18/04/25HShimane80-61
16/04/25AKyoto74-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
Home--
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %50%-50%
Points / game98.0-98.0
Allowed / game82.5-82.5
Point differential+15.5-+15.5
Avg total180.5-180.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%-50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%-0%
Saga
B League 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeWW100%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %100%100%-
Points / game94.594.5-
Allowed / game79.579.5-
Point differential+15.0+15.0-
Avg total174.0174.0-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%-
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Shimane220100%90.067.5+22.5
2 Hiroshima D.220100%102.585.5+17.0
3 Saga220100%94.579.5+15.0
4 Chiba220100%92.077.5+14.5
5 Utsunomiya Brex220100%73.560.0+13.5
6 Sun Rockers Shibuya220100%81.069.0+12.0
7 Sendai220100%78.069.0+9.0
8 Yokohama220100%78.075.0+3.0
9 Nagasaki21150%98.082.5+15.5
10 SeaHorses Mikawa21150%78.073.0+5.0
11 Diamond Dolphins21150%72.568.5+4.0
12 Osaka21150%85.082.0+3.0
13 Kyoto21150%92.590.5+2.0
14 Toyama21150%90.592.5-2.0
15 NeoPhoenix21150%82.085.0-3.0
16 Hokkaido21150%68.572.5-4.0
17 Gunma21150%73.078.0-5.0
18 Altiri Chiba21150%82.598.0-15.5
19 Ryukyu2020%75.078.0-3.0
20 Ibaraki Robots2020%69.078.0-9.0
21 Akita2020%69.081.0-12.0
22 Alvark2020%60.073.5-13.5
23 Nagoya Fighting Eagles2020%77.592.0-14.5
24 Shiga2020%79.594.5-15.0
25 Brave Thunders2020%85.5102.5-17.0
26 Koshigaya Alphas2020%67.590.0-22.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nagasaki1528191476
Saga2116151567
← all games of the day
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