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Nagasaki vs Saga Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 20 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 06:45
Final 71-80
19-23 32-24 9-24 11-9
Position#17
Record17-25
FormLLLLW
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game85.2
vs
Saga 🏆
Japan
Position#15
Record21-21
FormLLWWL
Points / game75.0
Allowed / game75.0
JapanB League· Nagasaki Prefectural Sports Center (Nagasaki)
Other2023-24
Meetings · Nagasaki v Saga
20 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
19 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
11 Oct 2025
NAGA85
SAGA73
10 Oct 2025
NAGA76
SAGA67
23 Apr 2025
NAGA68
SAGA78
20 Mar 2024
NAGA71
SAGA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Saga winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
68-103
68
103
-35
57avg 74
H28/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
W
85-74
85
74
+11
89avg 74
A31/01
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
76-91
76
91
-15
68avg 74
H03/02
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
90-96 OT
90
96
-6
no box
H04/02
B League
Shimane
#12
W
99-92
99
92
+7
98avg 74
A07/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
81-101
81
101
-20
73avg 74
A10/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
76-97
76
97
-21
70avg 74
A11/02
B League
Gunma
#13
L
67-85
67
85
-18
55avg 74
H02/03
B League
Gunma
#13
L
78-91
78
91
-13
69avg 74
H03/03
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
W
94-82
94
82
+12
89avg 74
H06/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-22
16-29
16-28
19-24
26-23
23-21
21-12
15-18
20-21
19-25
17-22
20-23
23-28
18-27
20-14
22-14
18-21
29-26
24-17
28-28
16-33
29-21
21-22
15-25
15-37
12-19
23-18
26-23
22-20
14-26
17-23
14-16
24-26
24-19
19-22
11-24
25-16
27-16
23-27
19-23
172.6Avg total
81.4Scored
91.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)81.585.2166.6-3.740%
Season at home (23)78.283.9162.1-5.735%
Season away (19)85.486.7172.1-1.347%
Last 10 (10)81.491.2172.6-9.830%
Last 5 (5)79.291.2170.4-12.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)79.287.7166.9-8.531%
vs Similar ◀ (11)77.585.1162.5-7.627%
vs Weaker (3)80.074.7154.7+5.333%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
62-76
62
76
-14
53avg 67
A28/01
B League
Ryukyu
#5
L
58-96
58
96
-38
40avg 67
H31/01
B League
Gunma
#13
L
68-79
68
79
-11
46avg 67
H03/02
B League
Gunma
#13
L
69-79
69
79
-10
60avg 67
H04/02
B League
Shinshu
#23
W
74-58
74
58
+16
74avg 67
A07/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#11
L
72-94
72
94
-22
58avg 67
H10/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#11
L
73-80
73
80
-7
68avg 67
H11/02
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
81-52
81
52
+29
76avg 67
A02/03
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
87-72
87
72
+15
81avg 67
A03/03
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
66-85
66
85
-19
55avg 67
H06/03
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-15
18-22
12-21
12-18
12-23
18-24
19-13
9-36
15-13
17-19
20-30
16-17
21-28
17-6
13-25
18-20
30-11
16-14
11-13
17-20
24-29
20-24
20-19
8-22
24-30
24-18
13-14
12-18
27-8
13-13
20-14
21-17
19-16
19-25
27-21
22-10
17-19
16-29
16-17
17-20
148.1Avg total
71.0Scored
77.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)75.075.0150.0+0.050%
Season at home (23)73.676.9150.5-3.343%
Season away (19)76.772.6149.3+4.158%
Last 10 (10)71.077.1148.1-6.130%
Last 5 (5)75.876.6152.4-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)71.389.3160.6-18.00%
vs Similar ◀ (11)73.779.4153.1-5.636%
vs Weaker (12)82.963.9146.8+19.0100%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.1-4.1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: -4.6-4.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.1-4.1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: -4.6-4.6
NagasakiSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NeoPhoenix
#3
L
33-51
33
51
-18
H28/01
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
W
49-44
49
44
+5
A31/01
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
39-46
39
46
-7
H03/02
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
L
41-55
41
55
-14
H04/02
B League
Shimane
#12
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A07/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
45-54
45
54
-9
A10/02
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
27-56
27
56
-29
A11/02
B League
Gunma
#13
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H02/03
B League
Gunma
#13
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H03/03
B League
Diamond Dolphins
#4
W
52-32
52
32
+20
H06/03
B League
89.3Avg total
41.7Scored
47.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.343.483.7-3.140%-
Last 30 at home (18)39.242.681.8-3.433%-
Last 30 away (12)42.044.586.5-2.550%-
Last 10 (10)41.747.689.3-5.930%-
Last 5 (5)41.646.688.2-5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)38.245.283.4-7.119%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)41.842.584.4-0.755%-
vs Weaker (3)46.036.382.3+9.7100%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
W
38-37
38
37
+1
A28/01
B League
Ryukyu
#5
L
30-47
30
47
-17
H31/01
B League
Gunma
#13
D
32-32
32
32
+0
H03/02
B League
Gunma
#13
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H04/02
B League
Shinshu
#23
W
46-25
46
25
+21
A07/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#11
L
44-53
44
53
-9
H10/02
B League
Nagoya Fighting Eagles
#11
D
48-48
48
48
+0
H11/02
B League
Hokkaido
#20
W
40-21
40
21
+19
A02/03
B League
Hokkaido
#20
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A03/03
B League
Hiroshima D.
#6
L
33-48
33
48
-15
H06/03
B League
77.3Avg total
38.7Scored
38.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.738.479.1+2.450%-
Last 30 at home (16)39.640.279.8-0.744%-
Last 30 away (14)42.136.278.3+5.957%-
Last 10 (10)38.738.677.3+0.140%-
Last 5 (5)40.642.282.8-1.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)37.147.184.3-10.014%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)40.138.878.9+1.336%-
vs Weaker (12)43.432.876.2+10.683%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 79.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.518.5
49.3%
50.9%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.89.7
34.9%
33.5%29.1
🏀 Free throws18.513.0
70.3%
72.0%13.0
They take 65.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 70.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws9.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.8 points a game
49%
35%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.718.1
52.2%
50.9%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.28.2
32.5%
33.5%24.6
🏀 Free throws15.79.6
61.1%
72.0%9.6
They take 59.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
WLLLLWLLWL
Saga
LWWLLWLLLL
#17
League position
#15
-14.5
Net rating
-8.2
101.8
Offensive rating
99.8
116.3
Defensive rating
108.0
50.6%
Effective FG%
50.8%
56.4%
Opp. effective FG%
49.6%
19.8%
Turnover %
17.6%
28.3%
Off. rebound %
23.1%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.26
34.9%
3-point %
32.5%
67.4%
Assist %
53.2%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence101.8 · 99.8Defence116.3 · 108.0Shooting50.6% · 50.8%3-point %34.9% · 32.5%Ball care19.8% · 17.6%Off. rebounds28.3% · 23.1%Free throws0.28 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)30% · 30%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Nagasaki wins
0
Saga wins
DateGameScore
06/12/23Saga v Nagasaki81-91
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/24HDiamond Dolphins94-82
03/03/24HGunma78-91
02/03/24HGunma67-85
11/02/24AUtsunomiya Brex76-97
10/02/24AUtsunomiya Brex81-101
07/02/24AShimane99-92
04/02/24HDiamond Dolphins90-96 OT
03/02/24HDiamond Dolphins76-91
31/01/24AHiroshima D.85-74
28/01/24HNeoPhoenix68-103
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/24HHiroshima D.66-85
03/03/24AHokkaido87-72
02/03/24AHokkaido81-52
11/02/24HNagoya Fighting Eagles73-80
10/02/24HNagoya Fighting Eagles72-94
07/02/24AShinshu74-58
04/02/24HGunma69-79
03/02/24HGunma68-79
31/01/24HRyukyu58-96
28/01/24AUtsunomiya Brex62-76

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW40%
HomeLLLLW35%
AwayLWWLL47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422319
Win %40%35%47%
Points / game81.578.285.4
Allowed / game85.283.986.7
Point differential-3.7-5.7-1.3
Avg total166.6162.1172.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%9%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)80% (5)40% (5)
Overtime %5%9%0%
Saga
B League 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL50%
HomeLLLLL43%
AwayLLWWW58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422319
Win %50%43%58%
Points / game75.073.676.7
Allowed / game75.076.972.6
Point differential+0.0-3.3+4.1
Avg total150.0150.5149.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%17%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (7)60% (5)50% (2)
Overtime %5%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utsunomiya Brex4336784%79.968.3+11.7
2 Alvark4335881%82.570.2+12.3
3 NeoPhoenix4234881%89.878.6+11.3
4 Ryukyu42301271%82.277.1+5.1
5 Diamond Dolphins42281467%82.378.5+3.8
6 Chiba43281565%86.082.0+4.0
7 SeaHorses Mikawa42261662%81.476.5+4.9
8 Shimane42241857%83.778.6+5.1
9 Gunma43241956%79.680.6-1.0
10 Brave Thunders42231955%80.677.5+3.0
11 Hiroshima D.43232053%78.873.8+5.0
12 Sun Rockers Shibuya43232053%75.374.1+1.2
13 Akita43222151%74.174.5-0.4
14 Saga42212150%75.075.0+0.0
15 Nagoya Fighting Eagles43212249%73.474.7-1.2
16 Yokohama43202347%77.181.6-4.4
17 Sendai42182443%78.480.0-1.5
18 Nagasaki42172540%81.585.2-3.7
19 Osaka42152736%77.482.4-5.0
20 Kyoto43133030%77.284.6-7.3
21 Hokkaido42123029%74.681.1-6.5
22 Ibaraki Robots4373616%74.485.7-11.3
23 Shinshu4263614%71.084.0-13.0
24 Toyama434399%73.985.7-11.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nagasaki193291171
Saga232424980
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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