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Nagasaki vs Saga Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 23 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 10:05
Final 68-78
16-13 24-21 14-20 14-24
Position#16
Record24-31
FormWLWLL
Points / game75.8
Allowed / game78.3
vs
Saga 🏆
Japan
Position#18
Record19-36
FormLWLWL
Points / game75.8
Allowed / game79.0
JapanB League· Nagasaki Prefectural Sports Center
Other2024-25
Meetings · Nagasaki v Saga
20 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
19 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
11 Oct 2025
NAGA85
SAGA73
10 Oct 2025
NAGA76
SAGA67
23 Apr 2025
NAGA68
SAGA78
20 Mar 2024
NAGA71
SAGA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Saga winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
70-83
70
83
-13
62avg 68
H29/03
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
W
77-65
77
65
+12
74avg 68
H30/03
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
65-95
65
95
-30
47avg 68
A05/04
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
76-79
76
79
-3
66avg 68
A06/04
B League
Shimane
#8
L
63-72
63
72
-9
54avg 68
A09/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
W
91-86 OT
91
86
+5
87avg 68
A12/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
L
78-83
78
83
-5
67avg 68
A13/04
B League
Shiga
#24
W
69-67 OT
69
67
+2
63avg 68
H16/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
80-90
80
90
-10
75avg 68
A19/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
66-87
66
87
-21
53avg 68
A20/04
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-27
16-23
11-20
26-13
11-21
22-14
19-13
25-17
17-23
18-24
10-19
20-29
19-19
22-10
15-27
20-23
12-18
21-17
7-17
23-20
19-25
9-28
29-12
20-12
16-24
23-15
17-24
22-20
18-20
22-16
5-15
16-10
20-27
20-21
16-22
24-20
24-16
13-26
16-23
13-22
154.2Avg total
73.5Scored
80.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (55)75.878.3154.1-2.544%
Season at home (27)74.176.5150.6-2.441%
Season away (28)77.580.0157.5-2.546%
Last 10 (10)73.580.7154.2-7.230%
Last 5 (5)76.882.6159.4-5.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)76.481.4157.8-5.033%
vs Similar ◀ (10)77.781.4159.1-3.740%
vs Weaker (5)78.879.0157.8-0.240%
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#11
L
69-82
69
82
-13
55avg 68
H29/03
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#11
W
87-78
87
78
+9
82avg 68
H30/03
B League
Shiga
#24
W
80-79
80
79
+1
71avg 68
A05/04
B League
Shiga
#24
W
82-77
82
77
+5
78avg 68
A06/04
B League
Osaka
#13
L
81-85
81
85
-4
65avg 68
H09/04
B League
Hokkaido
#19
L
78-98
78
98
-20
70avg 68
H12/04
B League
Hokkaido
#19
W
89-73
89
73
+16
88avg 68
H13/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
74-85
74
85
-11
68avg 68
A16/04
B League
Shimane
#8
W
80-61
80
61
+19
81avg 68
H18/04
B League
Shimane
#8
L
66-82
66
82
-16
55avg 68
H19/04
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
14-26
15-12
20-23
20-21
25-10
27-27
11-16
24-25
15-27
28-19
17-19
20-14
15-18
20-19
23-23
24-17
25-24
22-20
22-25
12-16
22-24
16-28
27-31
13-15
22-19
24-18
19-20
24-16
18-21
15-22
15-19
26-23
18-10
25-21
17-15
20-15
22-17
22-19
11-20
11-26
158.6Avg total
78.6Scored
80.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (55)75.879.0154.7-3.235%
Season at home (28)78.081.2159.3-3.225%
Season away (27)73.476.6150.0-3.244%
Last 10 (10)78.680.0158.6-1.450%
Last 5 (5)77.479.8157.2-2.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)72.983.1156.0-10.219%
vs Similar ◀ (9)79.985.3165.2-5.422%
vs Weaker (5)84.069.4153.4+14.6100%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -4.7-4.7Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +0.6+0.6
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.7-4.7Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q2: +0.9+0.9Q3Q3: -4.7-4.7Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +0.6+0.6
NagasakiSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
33-50
33
50
-17
H29/03
B League
Utsunomiya Brex
#1
L
33-35
33
35
-2
H30/03
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
L
35-47
35
47
-12
A05/04
B League
NeoPhoenix
#2
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A06/04
B League
Shimane
#8
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A09/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
L
28-53
28
53
-25
A12/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A13/04
B League
Shiga
#24
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H16/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A19/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A20/04
B League
77.3Avg total
35.9Scored
41.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.340.781.0-0.447%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.241.281.4-0.962%-
Last 30 away (17)40.440.480.7+0.035%-
Last 10 (10)35.941.477.3-5.520%-
Last 5 (5)36.843.680.4-6.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)37.340.777.9-3.427%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)43.640.183.7+3.570%-
vs Weaker (5)42.842.084.8+0.860%-
This opponent (Saga) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#11
L
29-38
29
38
-9
H29/03
B League
Sun Rockers Shibuya
#11
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H30/03
B League
Shiga
#24
L
43-46
43
46
-3
A05/04
B League
Shiga
#24
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A06/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
47-44
47
44
+3
H09/04
B League
Hokkaido
#19
L
38-52
38
52
-14
H12/04
B League
Hokkaido
#19
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H13/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
33-43
33
43
-10
A16/04
B League
Shimane
#8
W
43-31
43
31
+12
H18/04
B League
Shimane
#8
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H19/04
B League
81.1Avg total
41.0Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.741.281.9-0.540%-
Last 30 at home (18)42.341.984.3+0.444%-
Last 30 away (12)38.240.178.2-1.933%-
Last 10 (10)41.040.181.1+0.950%-
Last 5 (5)40.839.880.6+1.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (16)38.640.579.1-1.938%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)42.144.486.6-2.344%-
vs Weaker (5)44.837.682.4+7.240%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 72.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.7 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.717.6
50.7%
51.2%35.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.69.4
34.1%
33.4%28.2
🏀 Free throws11.58.7
75.7%
72.7%8.7
They take 62.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 78.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.819.9
50.0%
51.2%39.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.08.0
32.0%
33.4%24.0
🏀 Free throws20.014.2
71.0%
72.7%14.2
They take 64.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
LLWLWLLLWL
Saga
LWLWLLWWWL
#16
League position
#18
-10.8
Net rating
-0.8
96.9
Offensive rating
106.7
107.6
Defensive rating
107.5
50.9%
Effective FG%
49.2%
49.3%
Opp. effective FG%
52.6%
19.8%
Turnover %
13.9%
22.6%
Off. rebound %
27.3%
0.18
Free-throw rate
0.31
34.1%
3-point %
32.0%
56.7%
Assist %
63.4%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence96.9 · 106.7Defence107.6 · 107.5Shooting50.9% · 49.2%3-point %34.1% · 32.0%Ball care19.8% · 13.9%Off. rebounds22.6% · 27.3%Free throws0.18 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Nagasaki wins
2
Saga wins
DateGameScore
05/03/25Saga v Nagasaki86-92
02/12/24Saga v Nagasaki78-93
01/12/24Saga v Nagasaki80-51
14/04/24Saga v Nagasaki73-80
13/04/24Saga v Nagasaki61-63
20/03/24Nagasaki v Saga71-80
06/12/23Saga v Nagasaki81-91
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/04/25ARyukyu66-87
19/04/25ARyukyu80-90
16/04/25HShiga69-67 OT
13/04/25ASeaHorses Mikawa78-83
12/04/25ASeaHorses Mikawa91-86 OT
09/04/25AShimane63-72
06/04/25ANeoPhoenix76-79
05/04/25ANeoPhoenix65-95
30/03/25HUtsunomiya Brex77-65
29/03/25HUtsunomiya Brex70-83
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/04/25HShimane66-82
18/04/25HShimane80-61
16/04/25AKyoto74-85
13/04/25HHokkaido89-73
12/04/25HHokkaido78-98
09/04/25HOsaka81-85
06/04/25AShiga82-77
05/04/25AShiga80-79
30/03/25HSun Rockers Shibuya87-78
29/03/25HSun Rockers Shibuya69-82

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL44%
HomeWLLWW41%
AwayLWLLL46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games552728
Win %44%41%46%
Points / game75.874.177.5
Allowed / game78.376.580.0
Point differential-2.5-2.4-2.5
Avg total154.1150.6157.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%19%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won39% (18)36% (14)50% (4)
Overtime %7%7%7%
Saga
B League 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL35%
HomeLLWWL25%
AwayLWWWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games552827
Win %35%25%44%
Points / game75.878.073.4
Allowed / game79.081.276.6
Point differential-3.2-3.2-3.2
Avg total154.7159.3150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%21%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won27% (11)0% (6)60% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utsunomiya Brex55451082%85.475.6+9.8
2 NeoPhoenix54441081%91.379.7+11.6
3 Ryukyu55421376%85.376.2+9.0
4 Alvark55401573%76.570.7+5.8
5 Chiba55371867%82.377.1+5.2
6 SeaHorses Mikawa55361965%81.375.2+6.0
7 Gunma55352064%77.772.1+5.6
8 Shimane55352064%80.074.5+5.4
9 Diamond Dolphins55322358%82.379.6+2.7
10 Sun Rockers Shibuya55292653%73.571.2+2.4
11 Kyoto55282751%82.180.8+1.3
12 Osaka55282751%82.182.9-0.9
13 Nagoya Fighting Eagles55272849%78.479.5-1.1
14 Akita55262947%73.374.5-1.3
15 Hiroshima D.55262947%79.582.3-2.8
16 Nagasaki55243144%75.878.3-2.5
17 Yokohama55233242%75.779.8-4.0
18 Saga55193635%75.879.0-3.2
19 Hokkaido55193635%75.580.3-4.8
20 Koshigaya Alphas55173831%75.581.0-5.4
21 Brave Thunders55173831%78.786.3-7.6
22 Ibaraki Robots55134224%72.780.2-7.5
23 Sendai55104518%72.883.3-10.6
24 Shiga5474713%76.189.3-13.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nagasaki1624141468
Saga1321202478
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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