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Nagasaki vs Saga Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 08:05
Final 85-73
22-16 19-20 20-17 24-20
Position#1
Record2-1
FormWWLWW
Points / game90.7
Allowed / game77.3
vs
Position#12
Record2-1
FormLLWWL
Points / game85.3
Allowed / game78.3
JapanB League· Nagasaki Prefectural Sports Center
Other2025-26
Meetings · Nagasaki v Saga
20 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
19 Mar 2027
NAGA v SAGA
upcoming
11 Oct 2025
NAGA85
SAGA73
10 Oct 2025
NAGA76
SAGA67
23 Apr 2025
NAGA68
SAGA78
20 Mar 2024
NAGA71
SAGA80
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Saga winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Ryukyu
#3
L
80-90
80
90
-10
75avg 69
A19/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
66-87
66
87
-21
53avg 69
A20/04
B League
Saga
#18
L
68-78
68
78
-10
63avg 69
H23/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
71-87
71
87
-16
65avg 69
H26/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
66-79
66
79
-13
49avg 69
H27/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
89-72
89
72
+17
81avg 69
A03/05
B League
Osaka
#13
W
85-76
85
76
+9
78avg 69
A04/05
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
L
94-97
94
97
-3
82avg 69
A04/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
102-68
102
68
+34
92avg 69
A05/10
B League
Saga
#12
W
76-67
76
67
+9
67avg 69
H10/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-27
20-21
16-22
24-20
24-16
13-26
16-23
13-22
16-13
24-21
14-20
14-24
17-23
21-17
15-29
18-18
13-17
17-18
21-22
15-22
20-23
20-20
23-15
26-14
25-19
18-25
22-17
20-15
30-28
20-27
27-25
17-17
31-21
18-18
34-13
19-16
15-21
28-16
19-15
14-15
159.8Avg total
79.7Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)90.777.3168.0+13.367%
Season at home (1)76.067.0143.0+9.0100%
Season away (2)98.082.5180.5+15.550%
Last 10 (10)79.780.1159.8-0.440%
Last 5 (5)89.276.0165.2+13.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)75.581.6157.1-6.129%
vs Similar (9)81.879.0160.8+2.867%
vs Weaker ◀ (4)85.274.8160.0+10.575%
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSaga
Date
Competition
Shimane
#8
W
80-61
80
61
+19
81avg 70
H18/04
B League
Shimane
#8
L
66-82
66
82
-16
55avg 70
H19/04
B League
Nagasaki
#16
W
78-68
78
68
+10
69avg 70
A23/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
90-79
90
79
+11
92avg 70
H26/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
106-82
106
82
+24
109avg 70
H27/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
71-87
71
87
-16
56avg 70
A03/05
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
76-85
76
85
-9
67avg 70
A04/05
B League
Shiga
#18
W
92-68
92
68
+24
88avg 70
H04/10
B League
Shiga
#18
W
97-91
97
91
+6
101avg 70
H05/10
B League
Nagasaki
#1
L
67-76
67
76
-9
59avg 70
A10/10
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-10
25-21
17-15
20-15
22-17
22-19
11-20
11-26
13-16
21-24
20-14
24-14
15-14
30-15
30-23
15-27
28-26
25-28
19-9
34-19
21-27
20-25
14-13
16-22
23-14
18-21
20-18
15-32
17-24
32-14
26-14
17-16
28-20
23-25
19-23
27-23
21-15
16-28
15-19
15-14
160.2Avg total
82.3Scored
77.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)85.378.3163.7+7.067%
Season at home (2)94.579.5174.0+15.0100%
Season away (1)67.076.0143.0-9.00%
Last 10 (10)82.377.9160.2+4.460%
Last 5 (5)80.681.4162.0-0.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)73.282.4155.6-9.219%
vs Similar (9)85.682.9168.4+2.756%
vs Weaker (5)90.876.0166.8+14.8100%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.4-1.4
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +1.2+1.2Q3Q3: +0.6+0.6Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: -1.4-1.4
NagasakiSaga
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Ryukyu
#3
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A19/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A20/04
B League
Saga
#18
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H23/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H26/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H27/04
B League
Osaka
#13
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A03/05
B League
Osaka
#13
L
43-44
43
44
-1
A04/05
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A04/10
B League
Altiri Chiba
#22
W
49-39
49
39
+10
A05/10
B League
Saga
#12
W
43-37
43
37
+6
H10/10
B League
82.7Avg total
41.0Scored
41.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.340.981.2-0.643%-
Last 30 at home (13)39.540.179.5-0.654%-
Last 30 away (17)41.041.582.5-0.535%-
Last 10 (10)41.041.782.7-0.730%-
Last 5 (5)45.043.688.6+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)36.940.377.2-3.424%-
vs Similar (9)44.641.786.2+2.967%-
vs Weaker ◀ (4)45.541.887.2+3.875%-
This opponent (Saga) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SagaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shimane
#8
W
43-31
43
31
+12
H18/04
B League
Shimane
#8
W
44-36
44
36
+8
H19/04
B League
Nagasaki
#16
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A23/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
45-29
45
29
+16
H26/04
B League
Osaka
#13
L
53-54
53
54
-1
H27/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
41-52
41
52
-11
A03/05
B League
Ryukyu
#3
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A04/05
B League
Shiga
#18
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H04/10
B League
Shiga
#18
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H05/10
B League
Nagasaki
#1
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A10/10
B League
84.1Avg total
43.8Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.842.183.9-0.343%-
Last 30 at home (16)45.442.587.9+2.956%-
Last 30 away (14)37.641.679.2-4.129%-
Last 10 (10)43.840.384.1+3.560%-
Last 5 (5)43.842.686.4+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)38.740.979.6-2.238%-
vs Similar (9)43.945.189.0-1.244%-
vs Weaker (5)47.840.688.4+7.260%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 78.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.419.2
51.3%
53.1%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.19.9
34.0%
33.7%29.7
🏀 Free throws14.510.4
71.7%
73.1%10.4
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sagatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Saga: 81.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.118.0
54.4%
53.1%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.710.8
33.0%
33.7%32.4
🏀 Free throws17.613.1
74.4%
73.1%13.1
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Nagasaki
WWLWWLLLLL
Saga
LWWLLWWWLW
#1
League position
#12
-1.1
Net rating
+6.5
104.8
Offensive rating
110.2
105.9
Defensive rating
103.7
51.2%
Effective FG%
52.0%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
48.1%
17.9%
Turnover %
15.1%
30.3%
Off. rebound %
27.9%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.27
34.0%
3-point %
33.0%
60.8%
Assist %
74.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence104.8 · 110.2Defence105.9 · 103.7Shooting51.2% · 52.0%3-point %34.0% · 33.0%Ball care17.9% · 15.1%Off. rebounds30.3% · 27.9%Free throws0.22 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Nagasaki   ■ Saga
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Nagasaki wins
3
Saga wins
DateGameScore
10/10/25Nagasaki v Saga76-67
23/04/25Nagasaki v Saga68-78
05/03/25Saga v Nagasaki86-92
02/12/24Saga v Nagasaki78-93
01/12/24Saga v Nagasaki80-51
14/04/24Saga v Nagasaki73-80
13/04/24Saga v Nagasaki61-63
20/03/24Nagasaki v Saga71-80
06/12/23Saga v Nagasaki81-91
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/10/25HSaga76-67
05/10/25AAltiri Chiba102-68
04/10/25AAltiri Chiba94-97
04/05/25AOsaka85-76
03/05/25AOsaka89-72
27/04/25HKyoto66-79
26/04/25HKyoto71-87
23/04/25HSaga68-78
20/04/25ARyukyu66-87
19/04/25ARyukyu80-90
Sagalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/10/25ANagasaki67-76
05/10/25HShiga97-91
04/10/25HShiga92-68
04/05/25ARyukyu76-85
03/05/25ARyukyu71-87
27/04/25HOsaka106-82
26/04/25HOsaka90-79
23/04/25ANagasaki78-68
19/04/25HShimane66-82
18/04/25HShimane80-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Nagasaki
B League 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWW67%
HomeW100%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games312
Win %67%100%50%
Points / game90.776.098.0
Allowed / game77.367.082.5
Point differential+13.3+9.0+15.5
Avg total168.0143.0180.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Saga
B League 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWL67%
HomeWW100%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %67%100%0%
Points / game85.394.567.0
Allowed / game78.379.576.0
Point differential+7.0+15.0-9.0
Avg total163.7174.0143.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Chiba330100%94.377.7+16.7
2 Utsunomiya Brex330100%82.767.0+15.7
3 Sun Rockers Shibuya330100%81.770.3+11.3
4 Nagasaki32167%90.777.3+13.3
5 Diamond Dolphins32167%76.767.7+9.0
6 Shimane32167%87.078.7+8.3
7 Saga32167%85.378.3+7.0
8 Hiroshima D.32167%92.788.3+4.3
9 Hokkaido32167%77.072.7+4.3
10 Sendai32167%78.079.0-1.0
11 Yokohama32167%75.780.0-4.3
12 Altiri Chiba32167%80.786.3-5.7
13 Kyoto21150%92.590.5+2.0
14 SeaHorses Mikawa31233%78.075.0+3.0
15 Brave Thunders31233%90.390.0+0.3
16 Nagoya Fighting Eagles31233%81.785.0-3.3
17 Ibaraki Robots31233%74.378.3-4.0
18 Osaka31233%78.783.0-4.3
19 Gunma31233%75.080.3-5.3
20 NeoPhoenix31233%79.084.3-5.3
21 Akita31233%72.380.0-7.7
22 Toyama31233%82.095.0-13.0
23 Ryukyu2020%75.078.0-3.0
24 Alvark2020%60.073.5-13.5
25 Shiga2020%79.594.5-15.0
26 Koshigaya Alphas3030%66.085.7-19.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 26 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Nagasaki2219202485
Saga1620172073
← all games of the day
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