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Neptunas vs Zalgiris Kaunas Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 03 Mar 2019
Tip-off: 15:20
Final 81-71
23-15 25-22 16-19 17-15
Position#2
Record17-5
FormWWLWW
Points / game87.2
Allowed / game79.6
vs
Position#1
Record20-2
FormWLWWL
Points / game86.8
Allowed / game69.6
LithuaniaLKL
Domestic2018-19
Meetings · Neptunas v Zalgiris Kaunas
14 Mar 2027
NEP v ZAL
upcoming
20 Sep 2026
NEP69
ZAL93
13 May 2026
NEP90
ZAL93
27 Sep 2025
NEP71
ZAL84
26 May 2025
NEP70
ZAL98
30 Mar 2025
NEP67
ZAL80
16 Feb 2025
NEP89
ZAL91
10 Nov 2024
NEP70
ZAL97
17 Apr 2024
NEP114
ZAL112
12 Feb 2024
NEP75
ZAL95
19 Mar 2023
NEP80
ZAL91
26 Sep 2022
NEP71
ZAL79
09 May 2022
NEP87
ZAL78
04 May 2022
NEP70
ZAL68
20 Apr 2022
NEP57
ZAL77
30 Jan 2022
NEP60
ZAL77
18 Apr 2021
NEP72
ZAL88
03 Jan 2021
NEP74
ZAL104
05 Apr 2020
NEP v ZAL
upcoming
13 Oct 2019
NEP73
ZAL80
03 Mar 2019
NEP81
ZAL71
06 Jan 2019
NEP98
ZAL93
21 Jan 2018
NEP75
ZAL83
28 Sep 2017
NEP73
ZAL64
22 May 2017
NEP53
ZAL69
16 May 2017
NEP73
ZAL70
15 Apr 2017
NEP77
ZAL81
11 Dec 2016
NEP67
ZAL95
03 Jun 2016
NEP50
ZAL74
28 May 2016
NEP76
ZAL54
03 Apr 2016
NEP70
ZAL78
06 Dec 2015
NEP73
ZAL82
15 Feb 2015
NEP67
ZAL65
18 Jan 2015
NEP76
ZAL80
03 Jun 2014
NEP87
ZAL86
28 May 2014
NEP75
ZAL82
22 May 2014
NEP71
ZAL59
27 Jan 2014
NEP81
ZAL73
25 Apr 2013
NEP73
ZAL90
01 Apr 2013
NEP78
ZAL77
04 Nov 2012
NEP62
ZAL90
05 Feb 2012
NEP67
ZAL90
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Zalgiris Kaunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Oostende
#27
L
77-79
77
79
-2
no box
H09/01
Champions League
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#5
L
77-80
77
80
-3
no box
H12/01
LKL
Strasbourg
#13
W
90-80
90
80
+10
no box
A15/01
Champions League
Skycop
#7
W
85-68
85
68
+17
no box
H19/01
LKL
Petrol Olimpija
#45
W
82-74
82
74
+8
no box
H23/01
Champions League
Siauliai
#10
W
106-103 OT
106
103
+3
no box
A26/01
LKL
Promitheas
#17
W
82-69
82
69
+13
no box
A30/01
Champions League
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#5
L
89-103
89
103
-14
no box
H02/02
LKL
Bayreuth
#35
W
83-73
83
73
+10
no box
H06/02
Champions League
Juventus
#6
W
89-88
89
88
+1
no box
A09/02
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-21
27-18
20-21
18-19
18-15
21-17
17-17
21-31
16-27
28-17
25-20
21-16
16-13
18-16
30-19
21-20
29-20
22-22
18-20
13-12
28-20
21-29
24-25
20-19
26-15
22-24
12-11
22-19
21-26
19-27
20-30
29-20
19-12
24-21
19-20
21-20
15-29
26-19
22-15
26-25
167.7Avg total
86.0Scored
81.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)87.279.6166.9+7.677%
Season at home (11)85.980.2166.1+5.764%
Season away (11)88.579.1167.6+9.591%
Last 10 (10)86.081.7167.7+4.370%
Last 5 (5)89.887.2177.0+2.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)87.079.3166.3+7.7100%
vs Similar (13)82.879.6162.5+3.254%
vs Weaker (14)87.181.0168.1+6.179%
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Zalgiris KaunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKaunas
Date
Competition
Panathinaikos
#7
W
82-69
82
69
+13
110avg 103
H18/01
Euroleague
Nevezis
#9
W
82-79
82
79
+3
no box
H20/01
LKL
Olimpia Milano
#11
L
70-80
70
80
-10
no box
A24/01
Euroleague
Juventus
#6
W
98-80
98
80
+18
no box
A27/01
LKL
Khimki M.
#13
L
64-74
64
74
-10
91avg 103
A31/01
Euroleague
Skycop
#7
W
96-67
96
67
+29
no box
H03/02
LKL
Barcelona
#5
L
72-78
72
78
-6
99avg 103
A07/02
Euroleague
Alytaus Dzukija
#8
W
90-75
90
75
+15
no box
A10/02
LKL
Buducnost
#15
W
84-76
84
76
+8
113avg 103
H22/02
Euroleague
Baskonia
#8
L
73-80
73
80
-7
99avg 103
A28/02
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-19
20-18
19-14
30-18
24-18
14-18
26-25
18-18
13-21
17-13
20-18
20-28
21-22
21-21
25-13
31-24
17-19
20-17
19-11
8-27
30-15
23-16
24-18
19-18
20-23
18-22
24-15
10-18
25-23
27-20
17-18
21-14
20-18
19-18
21-26
24-14
12-17
13-23
27-19
21-21
156.9Avg total
81.1Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)86.869.6156.4+17.191%
Season at home (11)85.768.4154.1+17.491%
Season away (11)87.870.9158.7+16.991%
Last 10 (10)81.175.8156.9+5.360%
Last 5 (5)83.075.2158.2+7.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.885.0158.8-11.20%
vs Similar (11)78.178.8156.9-0.736%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)87.171.7158.8+15.587%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +4.5+4.5Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: +0.2+0.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: +4.5+4.5Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: +0.2+0.2
NeptunasZalgiris Kaunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oostende
#27
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H09/01
Champions League
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#5
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H12/01
LKL
Strasbourg
#13
D
44-44
44
44
+0
A15/01
Champions League
Skycop
#7
W
34-29
34
29
+5
H19/01
LKL
Petrol Olimpija
#45
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H23/01
Champions League
Siauliai
#10
D
49-49
49
49
+0
A26/01
LKL
Promitheas
#17
W
48-39
48
39
+9
A30/01
Champions League
Pieno Zvaigzdes
#5
L
40-53
40
53
-13
H02/02
LKL
Bayreuth
#35
W
43-33
43
33
+10
H06/02
Champions League
Juventus
#6
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A09/02
LKL
83.6Avg total
42.8Scored
40.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.640.382.9+2.360%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.339.580.8+1.760%-
Last 30 away (15)43.941.184.9+2.860%-
Last 10 (10)42.840.883.6+2.050%-
Last 5 (5)44.244.488.6-0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)36.738.775.3-2.033%-
vs Similar (13)42.540.382.8+2.262%-
vs Weaker (14)43.940.684.5+3.264%-
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Zalgiris KaunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Panathinaikos
#7
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H18/01
Euroleague
Nevezis
#9
W
38-36
38
36
+2
H20/01
LKL
Olimpia Milano
#11
L
30-34
30
34
-4
A24/01
Euroleague
Juventus
#6
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A27/01
LKL
Khimki M.
#13
W
37-36
37
36
+1
A31/01
Euroleague
Skycop
#7
W
53-31
53
31
+22
H03/02
LKL
Barcelona
#5
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A07/02
Euroleague
Alytaus Dzukija
#8
W
52-43
52
43
+9
A10/02
LKL
Buducnost
#15
W
39-36
39
36
+3
H22/02
Euroleague
Baskonia
#8
L
25-40
25
40
-15
A28/02
Euroleague
76.8Avg total
38.7Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.036.774.7+1.353%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.435.975.3+3.567%-
Last 30 away (15)36.637.674.2-1.040%-
Last 10 (10)38.738.176.8+0.650%-
Last 5 (5)41.439.080.4+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)32.541.073.5-8.525%-
vs Similar (11)35.738.774.5-3.036%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)41.134.175.3+7.073%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 73.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers30.015.0
50.0%
55.3%30.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.010.0
37.0%
35.7%30.0
🏀 Free throws16.013.0
81.2%
73.8%13.0
They take 57.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Zalgiris Kaunas: 69.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀22%
🏀23%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers15.6 pts a game · 22% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 23% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.819.1
48.0%
55.3%38.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers15.25.2
34.2%
35.7%15.6
🏀 Free throws19.516.1
82.6%
73.8%16.1
They take 55.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 15.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 1/10 games with a box score before 03 Mar 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
WWLWWWWWLL
Zalgiris Kaunas
LWWLWLWLWW
#2
League position
#1
+9.4
Net rating
-9.8
97.6
Offensive rating
100.4
88.2
Defensive rating
110.2
52.6%
Effective FG%
48.9%
50.9%
Opp. effective FG%
54.2%
20.0%
Turnover %
19.0%
12.9%
Off. rebound %
24.8%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.35
37.0%
3-point %
34.2%
60.0%
Assist %
67.1%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence97.6 · 100.4Defence88.2 · 110.2Shooting52.6% · 48.9%3-point %37.0% · 34.2%Ball care20.0% · 19.0%Off. rebounds12.9% · 24.8%Free throws0.28 · 0.35Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Neptunas   ■ Zalgiris Kaunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Neptunas wins
6
Zalgiris Kaunas wins
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/19AJuventus89-88
06/02/19HBayreuth83-73
02/02/19HPieno Zvaigzdes89-103
30/01/19APromitheas82-69
26/01/19ASiauliai106-103 OT
23/01/19HPetrol Olimpija82-74
19/01/19HSkycop85-68
15/01/19AStrasbourg90-80
12/01/19HPieno Zvaigzdes77-80
09/01/19HOostende77-79
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/19ABaskonia73-80
22/02/19HBuducnost84-76
10/02/19AAlytaus Dzukija90-75
07/02/19ABarcelona72-78
03/02/19HSkycop96-67
31/01/19AKhimki M.64-74
27/01/19AJuventus98-80
24/01/19AOlimpia Milano70-80
20/01/19HNevezis82-79
18/01/19HPanathinaikos82-69

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
LKL 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW77%
HomeWWLWL64%
AwayWWLWW91%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %77%64%91%
Points / game87.285.988.5
Allowed / game79.680.279.1
Point differential+7.6+5.7+9.5
Avg total166.9166.1167.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%45%64%
Close games (≤5 pts) won83% (6)67% (3)100% (3)
Overtime %9%9%9%
Zalgiris Kaunas
LKL 2018-19
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW91%
HomeWWWWW91%
AwayWLWWW91%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221111
Win %91%91%91%
Points / game86.885.787.8
Allowed / game69.668.470.9
Point differential+17.1+17.4+16.9
Avg total156.4154.1158.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%64%64%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %5%0%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas2220291%86.869.6+17.1
2 Rytas2217577%85.276.0+9.2
3 Neptunas2217577%87.279.6+7.6
4 Lietkabelis2214864%81.878.4+3.4
5 Pieno Zvaigzdes23131057%83.786.3-2.6
6 Juventus2281436%80.381.7-1.4
7 Skycop2381535%77.185.6-8.4
8 Alytaus Dzukija2271532%79.081.9-2.8
9 Siauliai2341917%79.988.6-8.7
10 Nevezis2341917%73.185.0-11.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas2325161781
Zalgiris Kaunas1522191571
← all games of the day
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