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Neptunas vs Zalgiris Kaunas Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 27 Sep 2025
Tip-off: 13:50
Final 71-84
16-23 17-20 17-20 21-21
Position#3
Record1-0
FormWWLLW
Points / game96.0
Allowed / game84.0
vs
Position#1
Record2-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game90.0
Allowed / game75.0
LithuaniaLKL· Svyturio Arena
Domestic2025-26
Meetings · Neptunas v Zalgiris Kaunas
14 Mar 2027
NEP v ZAL
upcoming
20 Sep 2026
NEP69
ZAL93
13 May 2026
NEP90
ZAL93
27 Sep 2025
NEP71
ZAL84
26 May 2025
NEP70
ZAL98
30 Mar 2025
NEP67
ZAL80
16 Feb 2025
NEP89
ZAL91
10 Nov 2024
NEP70
ZAL97
17 Apr 2024
NEP114
ZAL112
12 Feb 2024
NEP75
ZAL95
19 Mar 2023
NEP80
ZAL91
26 Sep 2022
NEP71
ZAL79
09 May 2022
NEP87
ZAL78
04 May 2022
NEP70
ZAL68
20 Apr 2022
NEP57
ZAL77
30 Jan 2022
NEP60
ZAL77
18 Apr 2021
NEP72
ZAL88
03 Jan 2021
NEP74
ZAL104
05 Apr 2020
NEP v ZAL
upcoming
13 Oct 2019
NEP73
ZAL80
03 Mar 2019
NEP81
ZAL71
06 Jan 2019
NEP98
ZAL93
21 Jan 2018
NEP75
ZAL83
28 Sep 2017
NEP73
ZAL64
22 May 2017
NEP53
ZAL69
16 May 2017
NEP73
ZAL70
15 Apr 2017
NEP77
ZAL81
11 Dec 2016
NEP67
ZAL95
03 Jun 2016
NEP50
ZAL74
28 May 2016
NEP76
ZAL54
03 Apr 2016
NEP70
ZAL78
06 Dec 2015
NEP73
ZAL82
15 Feb 2015
NEP67
ZAL65
18 Jan 2015
NEP76
ZAL80
03 Jun 2014
NEP87
ZAL86
28 May 2014
NEP75
ZAL82
22 May 2014
NEP71
ZAL59
27 Jan 2014
NEP81
ZAL73
25 Apr 2013
NEP73
ZAL90
01 Apr 2013
NEP78
ZAL77
04 Nov 2012
NEP62
ZAL90
05 Feb 2012
NEP67
ZAL90
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Zalgiris Kaunas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#3
L
79-84
79
84
-5
69avg 81
A30/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
96-90
96
90
+6
97avg 81
H04/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
49-84
49
84
-35
38avg 81
A07/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#4
L
84-96
84
96
-12
70avg 81
A11/05
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
W
85-79
85
79
+6
84avg 81
H14/05
LKL
Juventus
#6
W
100-88
100
88
+12
102avg 81
H17/05
LKL
Jonava
#5
W
98-93 OT
98
93
+5
88avg 81
A20/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
75-88
75
88
-13
66avg 81
A24/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
70-98
70
98
-28
64avg 81
H26/05
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
W
96-84
96
84
+12
93avg 81
A20/09
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-27
23-19
16-18
16-20
27-20
20-18
21-26
28-26
7-20
8-27
18-22
16-15
21-25
21-27
21-26
21-18
23-20
21-14
26-28
15-17
25-15
21-28
28-28
26-17
18-18
13-20
18-31
32-12
14-21
20-22
21-24
20-21
22-22
13-27
17-27
18-22
26-21
18-18
29-22
23-23
171.6Avg total
83.2Scored
88.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (1)96.084.0180.0+12.0100%
Season at homeno games
Season away (1)96.084.0180.0+12.0100%
Last 10 (10)83.288.4171.6-5.250%
Last 5 (5)87.890.2178.0-2.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)78.289.5167.8-11.219%
vs Similar (10)90.290.8181.0-0.640%
vs Weaker (4)93.074.0167.0+19.0100%
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Zalgiris KaunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKaunas
Date
Competition
Jonava
#5
W
73-61
73
61
+12
72avg 80
H29/05
LKL
Jonava
#5
W
98-74
98
74
+24
101avg 80
A31/05
LKL
Jonava
#5
W
86-78
86
78
+8
88avg 80
H03/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
89-97 OT
89
97
-8
72avg 80
H12/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
83-79
83
79
+4
74avg 80
A14/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
80-86
80
86
-6
69avg 80
H17/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
84-83
84
83
+1
75avg 80
A19/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
76-69
76
69
+7
71avg 80
H21/06
LKL
Jonava
#8
W
87-78
87
78
+9
88avg 80
A20/09
LKL
Siauliai
#4
W
93-72
93
72
+21
93avg 80
H24/09
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-17
22-10
14-25
21-9
26-18
27-28
31-13
14-15
28-25
18-15
22-18
18-20
15-19
17-22
20-17
21-15
15-20
21-13
21-22
26-24
15-21
16-28
33-18
16-19
15-24
26-22
13-22
30-15
15-15
14-15
21-25
26-14
22-14
19-11
21-25
25-28
23-20
27-9
20-25
23-18
162.6Avg total
84.9Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)90.075.0165.0+15.0100%
Season at home (1)93.072.0165.0+21.0100%
Season away (1)87.078.0165.0+9.0100%
Last 10 (10)84.977.7162.6+7.280%
Last 5 (5)84.077.6161.6+6.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)81.591.5173.0-10.00%
vs Similar (2)74.577.0151.5-2.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)88.974.0163.0+14.992%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: -4.2-4.2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: -3.7-3.7Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: +4.3+4.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: -4.2-4.2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: -3.7-3.7Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +2.4+2.4Q4: +4.3+4.3
NeptunasZalgiris Kaunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lietkabelis
#3
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A30/04
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
47-38
47
38
+9
H04/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
15-47
15
47
-32
A07/05
LKL
BC Wolves
#4
L
42-52
42
52
-10
A11/05
LKL
Mazeikiai
#10
W
44-34
44
34
+10
H14/05
LKL
Juventus
#6
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H17/05
LKL
Jonava
#5
L
31-38
31
38
-7
A20/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A24/05
LKL
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
35-49
35
49
-14
H26/05
LKL
Lietkabelis
#6
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A20/09
LKL
81.4Avg total
38.5Scored
42.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.943.583.4-3.640%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.643.284.8-1.653%-
Last 30 away (13)37.643.981.5-6.323%-
Last 10 (10)38.542.981.4-4.450%-
Last 5 (5)38.042.480.4-4.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)38.143.982.1-5.838%-
vs Similar (10)40.745.786.4-5.030%-
vs Weaker (4)44.836.281.0+8.575%-
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Zalgiris KaunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jonava
#5
W
38-27
38
27
+11
H29/05
LKL
Jonava
#5
W
53-46
53
46
+7
A31/05
LKL
Jonava
#5
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H03/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H12/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
W
36-33
36
33
+3
A14/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
31-49
31
49
-18
H17/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
41-46
41
46
-5
A19/06
LKL
Rytas
#2
L
29-30
29
30
-1
H21/06
LKL
Jonava
#8
W
41-25
41
25
+16
A20/09
LKL
Siauliai
#4
W
50-29
50
29
+21
H24/09
LKL
76.3Avg total
39.7Scored
36.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.136.878.9+5.460%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.534.376.8+8.167%-
Last 30 away (15)41.839.281.0+2.653%-
Last 10 (10)39.736.676.3+3.160%-
Last 5 (5)38.435.874.2+2.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)42.546.589.0-4.050%-
vs Similar (2)34.540.074.5-5.50%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)42.735.878.5+6.965%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 82.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.6 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.721.3
58.0%
55.4%42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.18.6
30.6%
35.5%25.8
🏀 Free throws19.213.7
71.4%
74.3%13.7
They take 64.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Zalgiris Kaunas: 84.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.6 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.922.1
59.9%
55.4%44.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.37.7
33.0%
35.5%23.1
🏀 Free throws24.216.8
69.4%
74.3%16.8
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Sep 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Neptunas
WLLWWWLLWL
Zalgiris Kaunas
WWWWLWLWWW
#3
League position
#1
-7.3
Net rating
+10.7
109.6
Offensive rating
118.8
117.0
Defensive rating
108.0
52.8%
Effective FG%
55.9%
57.1%
Opp. effective FG%
47.7%
17.4%
Turnover %
15.6%
31.6%
Off. rebound %
35.3%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.40
30.6%
3-point %
33.0%
67.9%
Assist %
61.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence109.6 · 118.8Defence117.0 · 108.0Shooting52.8% · 55.9%3-point %30.6% · 33.0%Ball care17.4% · 15.6%Off. rebounds31.6% · 35.3%Free throws0.30 · 0.40Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Neptunas   ■ Zalgiris Kaunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Neptunas wins
8
Zalgiris Kaunas wins
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/09/25ALietkabelis96-84
26/05/25HZalgiris Kaunas70-98
24/05/25AZalgiris Kaunas75-88
20/05/25AJonava98-93 OT
17/05/25HJuventus100-88
14/05/25HMazeikiai85-79
11/05/25ABC Wolves84-96
07/05/25AZalgiris Kaunas49-84
04/05/25HNevezis96-90
30/04/25ALietkabelis79-84
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/09/25HSiauliai93-72
20/09/25AJonava87-78
21/06/25HRytas76-69
19/06/25ARytas84-83
17/06/25HRytas80-86
14/06/25ARytas83-79
12/06/25HRytas89-97 OT
03/06/25HJonava86-78
31/05/25AJonava98-74
29/05/25HJonava73-61

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Neptunas
LKL 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallW100%
Home--
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1-1
Win %100%-100%
Points / game96.0-96.0
Allowed / game84.0-84.0
Point differential+12.0-+12.0
Avg total180.0-180.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%-100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%-0%
Zalgiris Kaunas
LKL 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game90.093.087.0
Allowed / game75.072.078.0
Point differential+15.0+21.0+9.0
Avg total165.0165.0165.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Rytas220100%90.568.5+22.0
2 Zalgiris Kaunas220100%90.075.0+15.0
3 Neptunas110100%96.084.0+12.0
4 Lietkabelis21150%92.585.0+7.5
5 Nevezis21150%77.083.0-6.0
6 Siauliai21150%82.589.0-6.5
7 Juventus1010%84.090.0-6.0
8 Gargzdai2020%79.096.0-17.0
9 Jonava2020%76.094.0-18.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Neptunas1617172171
Zalgiris Kaunas2320202184
← all games of the day
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