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North Carolina vs Duke Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 71-68
29-41 42-27
Position#45
Record18-4
FormLWWWW
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game70.6
North Carolina 🏆
USA
vs
Duke
USA
Position#8
Record21-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game84.1
Allowed / game63.6
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · North Carolina v Duke
07 Feb 2026
NORT71
DUKE68
08 Mar 2025
NORT69
DUKE82
03 Feb 2024
NORT93
DUKE84
04 Mar 2023
NORT57
DUKE62
05 Feb 2022
NORT67
DUKE87
06 Mar 2021
NORT91
DUKE73
08 Feb 2020
NORT96
DUKE98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

North Carolina winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Duke winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

North CarolinaUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East Carolina
#310
W
99-51
99
51
+48
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
79-66
79
66
+13
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
L
83-97
83
97
-14
A03/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
87-84
87
84
+3
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
L
90-95
90
95
-5
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
78-84
78
84
-6
A17/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
91-69
91
69
+22
H22/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
W
85-80
85
80
+5
A24/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
91-75
91
75
+16
A31/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
87-77
87
77
+10
H03/02
NCAA
1H
2H
49-26
50-25
40-34
39-32
39-39
44-58
49-38
38-46
47-45
43-50
37-54
41-30
42-33
49-36
34-43
51-37
52-37
39-38
46-32
41-45
164.8Avg total
87.0Scored
77.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)83.170.6153.7+12.582%
Season at home (14)86.165.3151.4+20.9100%
Season away (8)77.979.9157.8-2.050%
Last 10 (10)87.077.8164.8+9.270%
Last 5 (5)86.477.0163.4+9.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)70.078.0148.0-8.00%
vs Similar (14)77.870.6148.4+7.271%
vs Weaker (14)87.667.9155.5+19.693%
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#309
W
85-79
85
79
+6
H31/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
91-87
91
87
+4
A03/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
84-73
84
73
+11
A07/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
82-75
82
75
+7
H10/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
71-56
71
56
+15
A15/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
80-50
80
50
+30
A17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
90-69
90
69
+21
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
83-52
83
52
+31
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
72-58
72
58
+14
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
67-49
67
49
+18
H04/02
NCAA
1H
2H
39-43
46-36
42-42
49-45
38-47
46-26
41-35
41-40
37-30
34-26
35-19
45-31
42-31
48-38
38-28
45-24
40-31
32-27
42-27
25-22
145.3Avg total
80.5Scored
64.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)84.163.6147.7+20.595%
Season at home (14)85.263.2148.4+22.093%
Season away (8)82.264.2146.5+18.0100%
Last 10 (10)80.564.8145.3+15.7100%
Last 5 (5)78.455.6134.0+22.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)67.066.0133.0+1.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)84.264.8149.0+19.493%
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +5.4+5.41st half: +6.1+6.12nd half2nd half: +3.8+3.82nd half: +9.6+9.6
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +5.4+5.41st half: +6.1+6.12nd half2nd half: +3.8+3.82nd half: +9.6+9.6
North CarolinaDuke
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
North CarolinaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
East Carolina
#310
W
49-26
49
26
+23
H23/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H31/12
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A03/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H10/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A15/01
NCAA
California
#79
L
37-54
37
54
-17
A17/01
NCAA
Notre Dame
#269
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H22/01
NCAA
Virginia
#19
L
34-43
34
43
-9
A24/01
NCAA
Georgia Tech
#309
W
52-37
52
37
+15
A31/01
NCAA
Syracuse
#236
W
46-32
46
32
+14
H03/02
NCAA
81.6Avg total
43.5Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.734.273.9+5.470%-
Last 30 at home (17)41.931.973.8+10.088%-
Last 30 away (13)36.837.374.1-0.546%-
Last 10 (10)43.538.181.6+5.470%-
Last 5 (5)42.239.882.0+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)33.044.077.0-11.00%-
vs Similar (14)36.434.470.7+2.050%-
vs Weaker (14)43.932.776.6+11.2100%-
This opponent (Duke) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
DukeLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Georgia Tech
#309
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H31/12
NCAA
Florida State
#167
D
42-42
42
42
+0
A03/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
L
38-47
38
47
-9
A07/01
NCAA
SMU Mustangs
#129
W
41-35
41
35
+6
H10/01
NCAA
California
#79
W
37-30
37
30
+7
A15/01
NCAA
Stanford
#103
W
35-19
35
19
+16
A17/01
NCAA
Wake Forest
#190
W
42-31
42
31
+11
H24/01
NCAA
Louisville
#53
W
38-28
38
28
+10
H27/01
NCAA
Virginia Tech
#122
W
40-31
40
31
+9
A31/01
NCAA
Boston College
#308
W
42-27
42
27
+15
H04/02
NCAA
72.7Avg total
39.4Scored
33.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.531.773.2+9.877%-
Last 30 at home (22)42.431.073.5+11.482%-
Last 30 away (8)39.133.572.6+5.662%-
Last 10 (10)39.433.372.7+6.170%-
Last 5 (5)39.427.266.6+12.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)36.024.060.0+12.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)41.732.073.7+9.876%-
This opponent (North Carolina) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
North Carolina wins
6
Duke wins
DateGameScore
14/03/25Duke v North Carolina74-71
08/03/25North Carolina v Duke69-82
01/02/25Duke v North Carolina87-70
09/03/24Duke v North Carolina79-84
03/02/24North Carolina v Duke93-84
04/03/23North Carolina v Duke57-62
04/02/23Duke v North Carolina63-57
03/04/22Duke v North Carolina77-81
05/03/22Duke v North Carolina81-94
05/02/22North Carolina v Duke67-87
North Carolinalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/02/26HSyracuse87-77
31/01/26AGeorgia Tech91-75
24/01/26AVirginia85-80
22/01/26HNotre Dame91-69
17/01/26ACalifornia78-84
15/01/26AStanford90-95
10/01/26HWake Forest87-84
03/01/26ASMU Mustangs83-97
31/12/25HFlorida State79-66
23/12/25HEast Carolina99-51
Dukelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/02/26HBoston College67-49
31/01/26AVirginia Tech72-58
27/01/26HLouisville83-52
24/01/26HWake Forest90-69
17/01/26AStanford80-50
15/01/26ACalifornia71-56
10/01/26HSMU Mustangs82-75
07/01/26ALouisville84-73
03/01/26AFlorida State91-87
31/12/25HGeorgia Tech85-79

📊 11. Overall Statistics

North Carolina
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW82%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLLWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22148
Win %82%100%50%
Points / game83.186.177.9
Allowed / game70.665.379.9
Point differential+12.5+20.9-2.0
Avg total153.7151.4157.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%93%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)100% (1)75% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Duke
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 10 Wins / 0 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW95%
HomeWWWWW93%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22148
Win %95%93%100%
Points / game84.185.282.2
Allowed / game63.663.264.2
Point differential+20.5+22.0+18.0
Avg total147.7148.4146.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+68%71%62%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)50% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Atlantic Coast conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Duke2221195%84.163.6+20.5
2 Virginia2420483%81.669.5+12.1
3 Clemson2319483%76.064.5+11.5
4 North Carolina2218482%83.170.6+12.5
5 Miami (FL)2318578%84.270.0+14.2
6 NC State2418675%85.772.5+13.2
7 Louisville2317674%85.770.7+15.1
8 California2317674%78.871.2+7.6
9 SMU Mustangs2316770%86.477.3+9.1
10 Virginia Tech2416867%79.774.4+5.3
11 Stanford2314961%75.373.1+2.2
12 Syracuse24131154%75.170.8+4.4
13 Wake Forest23111248%80.078.0+2.0
14 Florida State23111248%80.879.6+1.3
15 Georgia Tech23111248%75.074.7+0.3
16 Notre Dame24111346%73.872.8+1.0
17 Boston College2391439%67.368.6-1.3
18 Pittsburgh2491538%70.871.5-0.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
North Carolina294271
Duke412768
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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