PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Osaka vs Nagasaki Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 04 May 2025
Tip-off: 05:05
Final 76-85
19-25 25-18 17-22 15-20
Position#13
Record29-30
FormWWLLL
Points / game82.1
Allowed / game83.7
vs
Position#16
Record25-34
FormLLLLW
Points / game75.6
Allowed / game78.3
JapanB League· Osaka Prefectural Gymnasium
Other2024-25
Meetings · Osaka v Nagasaki
31 Jan 2027
OSAK v NAGA
upcoming
30 Jan 2027
OSAK v NAGA
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
OSAK71
NAGA80
04 May 2025
OSAK76
NAGA85
03 May 2025
OSAK72
NAGA89
12 Mar 2025
OSAK70
NAGA83
24 Dec 2023
OSAK90
NAGA72
23 Dec 2023
OSAK97
NAGA95
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Osaka winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Nagasaki winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

OsakaJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormOsaka
Date
Competition
Saga
#18
W
85-81
85
81
+4
89avg 77
A09/04
B League
Alvark
#4
W
68-66
68
66
+2
58avg 77
A12/04
B League
Alvark
#4
L
47-82
47
82
-35
34avg 77
A13/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
81-98
81
98
-17
71avg 77
H16/04
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
78-85
78
85
-7
74avg 77
A19/04
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
W
90-76
90
76
+14
92avg 77
A20/04
B League
Shiga
#24
W
95-91
95
91
+4
94avg 77
H23/04
B League
Saga
#18
L
79-90
79
90
-11
71avg 77
A26/04
B League
Saga
#18
L
82-106
82
106
-24
74avg 77
A27/04
B League
Nagasaki
#16
L
72-89
72
89
-17
65avg 77
H03/05
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-25
20-22
25-22
16-12
11-20
14-18
18-17
25-11
10-24
15-16
11-29
11-13
27-23
16-22
16-28
22-25
23-22
15-23
19-26
21-14
20-19
21-21
23-17
26-19
34-21
25-27
23-21
13-22
14-15
15-30
23-30
27-15
26-28
28-25
9-19
19-34
23-20
20-20
15-23
14-26
164.1Avg total
77.7Scored
86.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (59)82.183.7165.7-1.649%
Season at home (29)81.482.0163.4-0.552%
Season away (30)82.685.4168.0-2.747%
Last 10 (10)77.786.4164.1-8.740%
Last 5 (5)83.690.4174.0-6.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)77.787.3165.0-9.631%
vs Similar ◀ (11)85.288.9174.1-3.745%
vs Weaker (6)89.382.7172.0+6.783%
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiJapanLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNagasaki
Date
Competition
Shimane
#8
L
63-72
63
72
-9
54avg 68
A09/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
W
91-86 OT
91
86
+5
87avg 68
A12/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
L
78-83
78
83
-5
67avg 68
A13/04
B League
Shiga
#24
W
69-67 OT
69
67
+2
63avg 68
H16/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
80-90
80
90
-10
75avg 68
A19/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
66-87
66
87
-21
53avg 68
A20/04
B League
Saga
#18
L
68-78
68
78
-10
63avg 68
H23/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
71-87
71
87
-16
65avg 68
H26/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
66-79
66
79
-13
49avg 68
H27/04
B League
Osaka
#13
W
89-72
89
72
+17
81avg 68
A03/05
B League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-18
21-17
7-17
23-20
19-25
9-28
29-12
20-12
16-24
23-15
17-24
22-20
18-20
22-16
5-15
16-10
20-27
20-21
16-22
24-20
24-16
13-26
16-23
13-22
16-13
24-21
14-20
14-24
17-23
21-17
15-29
18-18
13-17
17-18
21-22
15-22
20-23
20-20
23-15
26-14
154.2Avg total
74.1Scored
80.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (59)75.678.3154.0-2.742%
Season at home (30)73.577.0150.5-3.537%
Season away (29)77.979.7157.6-1.948%
Last 10 (10)74.180.1154.2-6.030%
Last 5 (5)72.080.6152.6-8.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)75.581.6157.1-6.129%
vs Similar ◀ (9)80.179.7159.8+0.456%
vs Weaker (4)81.079.8160.8+1.250%
This opponent (Osaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -5.0-5.0Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +0.9+0.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -3.1-3.1Q2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -5.0-5.0Q3: -3.6-3.6Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +0.9+0.9
OsakaNagasaki
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
OsakaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Saga
#18
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A09/04
B League
Alvark
#4
L
25-38
25
38
-13
A12/04
B League
Alvark
#4
L
25-40
25
40
-15
A13/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
43-45
43
45
-2
H16/04
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
L
38-45
38
45
-7
A19/04
B League
Hiroshima D.
#15
W
41-40
41
40
+1
A20/04
B League
Shiga
#24
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H23/04
B League
Saga
#18
L
29-45
29
45
-16
A26/04
B League
Saga
#18
W
54-53
54
53
+1
A27/04
B League
Nagasaki
#16
W
43-40
43
40
+3
H03/05
B League
84.2Avg total
40.1Scored
44.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.743.385.0-1.653%-
Last 30 at home (15)42.941.284.1+1.773%-
Last 30 away (15)40.545.485.9-4.933%-
Last 10 (10)40.144.184.2-4.040%-
Last 5 (5)45.245.290.4+0.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)37.743.280.8-5.531%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)42.943.686.5-0.764%-
vs Weaker (6)48.243.091.2+5.283%-
This opponent (Nagasaki) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NagasakiLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Shimane
#8
L
33-35
33
35
-2
A09/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
L
28-53
28
53
-25
A12/04
B League
SeaHorses Mikawa
#7
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A13/04
B League
Shiga
#24
W
40-36
40
36
+4
H16/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
40-48
40
48
-8
A19/04
B League
Ryukyu
#3
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A20/04
B League
Saga
#18
W
40-34
40
34
+6
H23/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
38-40
38
40
-2
H26/04
B League
Kyoto
#10
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H27/04
B League
Osaka
#13
L
40-43
40
43
-3
A03/05
B League
77.0Avg total
36.5Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.941.080.9-1.043%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.840.680.4-0.857%-
Last 30 away (16)40.141.381.4-1.231%-
Last 10 (10)36.540.577.0-4.020%-
Last 5 (5)37.038.875.8-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (17)36.940.377.2-3.424%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)43.941.785.6+2.267%-
vs Weaker (4)44.042.286.2+1.875%-
This opponent (Osaka) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Osakatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Osaka: 76.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.8 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.920.4
51.1%
51.2%40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.27.2
28.6%
33.4%21.6
🏀 Free throws18.914.1
74.6%
72.7%14.1
They take 65.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Nagasakitheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Nagasaki: 72.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws8.8 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.6 points a game
49%
35%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.718.4
50.1%
51.2%36.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.59.1
34.3%
33.4%27.3
🏀 Free throws12.48.8
71.0%
72.7%8.8
They take 63.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Osaka
LLLWWLLLWW
Nagasaki
WLLLLLWLWL
#13
League position
#16
-12.5
Net rating
-8.7
102.7
Offensive rating
99.0
115.2
Defensive rating
107.6
47.9%
Effective FG%
50.7%
53.9%
Opp. effective FG%
49.4%
17.0%
Turnover %
18.4%
30.8%
Off. rebound %
24.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.20
28.6%
3-point %
34.3%
75.7%
Assist %
58.9%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence102.7 · 99.0Defence115.2 · 107.6Shooting47.9% · 50.7%3-point %28.6% · 34.3%Ball care17.0% · 18.4%Off. rebounds30.8% · 24.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)40% · 30%
■ Osaka   ■ Nagasaki
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Osaka wins
4
Nagasaki wins
DateGameScore
03/05/25Osaka v Nagasaki72-89
12/03/25Osaka v Nagasaki70-83
23/10/24Nagasaki v Osaka81-79
28/04/24Nagasaki v Osaka84-66
27/04/24Nagasaki v Osaka85-87
24/12/23Osaka v Nagasaki90-72
23/12/23Osaka v Nagasaki97-95
Osakalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/05/25HNagasaki72-89
27/04/25ASaga82-106
26/04/25ASaga79-90
23/04/25HShiga95-91
20/04/25AHiroshima D.90-76
19/04/25AHiroshima D.78-85
16/04/25HRyukyu81-98
13/04/25AAlvark47-82
12/04/25AAlvark68-66
09/04/25ASaga85-81
Nagasakilast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/05/25AOsaka89-72
27/04/25HKyoto66-79
26/04/25HKyoto71-87
23/04/25HSaga68-78
20/04/25ARyukyu66-87
19/04/25ARyukyu80-90
16/04/25HShiga69-67 OT
13/04/25ASeaHorses Mikawa78-83
12/04/25ASeaHorses Mikawa91-86 OT
09/04/25AShimane63-72

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Osaka
B League 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL49%
HomeWWLWL52%
AwayLLWLL47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games592930
Win %49%52%47%
Points / game82.181.482.6
Allowed / game83.782.085.4
Point differential-1.6-0.5-2.7
Avg total165.7163.4168.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%24%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (20)57% (7)62% (13)
Overtime %3%3%3%
Nagasaki
B League 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW42%
HomeWWLLL37%
AwayWLLLW48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games593029
Win %42%37%48%
Points / game75.673.577.9
Allowed / game78.377.079.7
Point differential-2.7-3.5-1.9
Avg total154.0150.5157.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%17%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won39% (18)36% (14)50% (4)
Overtime %7%7%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utsunomiya Brex59471280%84.675.2+9.4
2 NeoPhoenix58461279%90.679.8+10.8
3 Ryukyu59451476%85.576.4+9.1
4 Alvark59431673%76.170.4+5.7
5 Chiba60421870%81.976.1+5.8
6 Gunma59392066%77.871.7+6.0
7 SeaHorses Mikawa59392066%81.775.9+5.9
8 Shimane60372362%79.875.3+4.5
9 Diamond Dolphins59342558%82.179.4+2.7
10 Kyoto60332755%82.080.0+2.0
11 Sun Rockers Shibuya59302951%72.970.8+2.1
12 Nagoya Fighting Eagles59293049%78.279.4-1.2
13 Osaka59293049%82.183.7-1.6
14 Hiroshima D.60283247%80.283.0-2.8
15 Akita59273246%73.174.8-1.6
16 Nagasaki59253442%75.678.3-2.7
17 Yokohama59243541%75.379.6-4.3
18 Saga59223737%76.579.0-2.5
19 Hokkaido59203934%75.480.1-4.7
20 Koshigaya Alphas59194032%74.880.5-5.7
21 Brave Thunders59184131%79.086.4-7.4
22 Ibaraki Robots59154425%72.679.5-6.9
23 Sendai60114918%72.582.6-10.1
24 Shiga5985114%77.189.2-12.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 24 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Osaka1925171576
Nagasaki2518222085
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.