Svendborg vs Vaerlose Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Nov 2026

Tip-off: 13:30

Projected 96-73

Projected total 169.1

Final 86-59

26-16 24-15 18-17 18-11

Position#4

Record6-2

FormWWLWW

Points / game91.1

Allowed / game82.5

Svendborg 🏆

97%

■ SVEN 97%■ VAER 3%

Pythia win probability

Vaerlose

Position#10

Record2-7

FormLLLWL

Points / game80.1

Allowed / game92.3

Basketligaen· Arena Svendborg

Other2026-27

Meetings · Svendborg v Vaerlose

Sections

Pythia's preview, written before tip-off

Svendborg face Vaerlose in the Basketligaen on 8 November 2026, with the model favouring Svendborg at 97% to win over Vaerlose's 3% chance, a reflection of Svendborg's 6-2 record, 91.1 points per game and 82.5 allowed, and Vaerlose's 2-7 record, 80.1 points per game and 92.3 allowed. Svendborg have won 3 of 4 home games, scoring 88.8 per outing and conceding 80.8, and have gone 4-1 in their last five, including a 103-98 victory over Copenhagen away, a 97-82 home win over Bears Academy and an 83-86 loss to Team FOG Naestved away. Vaerlose, meanwhile, have gone 2-3 on the road, averaging 85.6 points and 91.2 allowed, and are 1-4 in their last five, with a 107-99 away win over BMS Herlev and losses to Team FOG Naestved and Holbaek-Stenhus. Historically Svendborg have dominated the 10 meetings, winning nine to Vaerlose's one, most recently 100-69 in February 2026. The Pythia model projects a 96-73 score, 169.1 total points, a home line of -23.0 with a 50% chance of covering, an over line of 167.5 with a 54% chance of the over, and a 1% overtime probability, underscoring Svendborg's statistical superiority.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Svendborg winWon

97.3%fair 1.03

Best odds1.03

Implied91.7%

Edge+5.6pp

Vaerlose winLost

2.7%fair 36.65

Best odds16.00

Implied8.3%

Edge-5.6pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 06 Nov 14:23 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Svendborg

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormSvendborg

Date

Competition

Team FOG Naestved

80-95

-15

57avg 83

H07/05

Basketligaen

Horsens

103-78

103

+25

98avg 83

H14/05

Basketligaen

Horsens

70-92

-22

62avg 83

H17/09

Basketligaen

Randers

96-83

+13

92avg 83

A23/09

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

86-75

+11

79avg 83

H26/09

Basketligaen

Vejen

102-74

102

+28

107avg 83

H02/10

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

92-70

+22

89avg 83

A07/10

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

83-86

-3

70avg 83

A15/10

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

97-82

+15

103avg 83

H23/10

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

103-98 OT

103

100avg 83

A31/10

Basketligaen

18-19

17-28

20-22

25-26

23-22

27-22

28-14

25-20

13-24

25-16

13-23

19-29

10-22

33-15

29-25

24-21

20-29

22-20

22-16

22-10

28-17

27-18

25-15

22-24

27-23

22-12

20-22

23-13

18-28

16-22

21-15

28-21

16-12

32-23

25-22

24-25

22-30

25-17

23-22

23-24

174.5Avg total

91.2Scored

83.3Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (8)	91.1	82.5	173.6	+8.6	75%
Season at home (4)	88.8	80.8	169.5	+8.0	75%
Season away (4)	93.5	84.2	177.8	+9.2	75%
Last 10 (10)	91.2	83.3	174.5	+7.9	70%
Last 5 (5)	95.4	82.0	177.4	+13.4	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	88.0	83.5	171.5	+4.5	50%
vs Similar (8)	83.8	90.2	174.0	-6.5	25%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)	92.6	75.4	168.0	+17.2	83%

This opponent (Vaerlose) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Vaerlose

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormVaerlose

Date

Competition

Bears Academy

70-91

-21

61avg 74

H28/04

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

88-78

+10

78avg 74

A19/09

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

74-88

-14

58avg 74

A22/09

Basketligaen

Randers

85-89 OT

-4

62avg 74

H27/09

Basketligaen

Horsens

79-99

-20

74avg 74

A02/10

Basketligaen

Vejen

80-92

-12

70avg 74

A08/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

82-123

123

-41

71avg 74

H18/10

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

64-68

-4

55avg 74

H24/10

Basketligaen

BMS Herlev

#12

107-99 OT

107

101avg 74

A30/10

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

62-95

-33

no box

H04/11

Basketligaen

15-22

17-28

25-15

13-26

24-23

18-11

17-28

29-16

20-16

19-23

14-24

21-25

16-13

20-23

14-25

23-12

25-20

16-26

21-21

17-32

20-25

25-19

18-28

17-20

23-31

18-25

19-33

22-34

10-11

14-29

19-17

21-11

23-25

25-24

17-17

24-23

22-16

8-21

14-27

18-31

171.3Avg total

79.1Scored

92.2Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	80.1	92.3	172.4	-12.2	22%
Season at home (4)	73.2	93.8	167.0	-20.5	0%
Season away (5)	85.6	91.2	176.8	-5.6	40%
Last 10 (10)	79.1	92.2	171.3	-13.1	20%
Last 5 (5)	79.0	95.4	174.4	-16.4	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)	74.9	96.2	171.1	-21.4	14%
vs Similar (14)	84.6	86.0	170.6	-1.4	57%
vs Weaker (2)	90.5	98.0	188.5	-7.5	50%

This opponent (Svendborg) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Over/Under 161Actual: Under 161

Over 161

69.7%

Under 161

30.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 166.25 · main lineActual: Under 166.25

Over 166.25

no forecast

@ 1.82

Under 166.25

no forecast

@ 1.80

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.82

Under

1xBet

1.80

Over/Under 171Actual: Under 171

Over 171

45.1%

@ 2.20+3.0pp

Under 171

54.9%

@ 1.60-3.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.20

Under

Bet365

1.60

Marathon Be

1.54

📊 3. Team Totals

Svendborg total 90.5Actual: Svendborg under 90.5

Over 90.5

71.4%

@ 1.42+6.7pp

Under 90.5

28.6%

@ 2.70-6.7pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.42

Bet365

1.41

1xBet

1.38

Under

Bet365

2.70

Betano

2.60

1xBet

2.41

Svendborg total 94.5 · main lineActual: Svendborg under 94.5

Over 94.5

56.3%

@ 1.84+6.1pp

Under 94.5

43.7%

@ 1.90-6.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathon Be

1.84

BetVictor

1.83

Betano

1.78

1xBet

1.72

Under

Betano

1.90

Marathon Be

1.86

BetVictor

1.85

1xBet

1.72

Svendborg total 98.5Actual: Svendborg under 98.5

Over 98.5

40.3%

@ 2.42+2.5pp

Under 98.5

59.7%

@ 1.55-2.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.42

1xBet

2.38

Bet365

2.30

Under

Bet365

1.55

Betano

1.47

1xBet

1.38

Vaerlose total 67.5Actual: Vaerlose under 67.5

Over 67.5

no forecast

@ 1.42

Under 67.5

no forecast

@ 2.75

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.42

Bet365

1.40

1xBet

1.38

Under

Bet365

2.75

Betano

2.57

1xBet

2.38

Vaerlose total 71.5 · main lineActual: Vaerlose under 71.5

Over 71.5

56.0%

@ 1.87+6.3pp

Under 71.5

44.0%

@ 1.85-6.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathon Be

1.87

BetVictor

1.85

Betano

1.82

1xBet

1.75

Under

Betano

1.85

BetVictor

1.85

Marathon Be

1.83

1xBet

1.70

Vaerlose total 75.5Actual: Vaerlose under 75.5

Over 75.5

40.0%

@ 2.55+3.5pp

Under 75.5

60.0%

@ 1.47-3.5pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.55

Betano

2.52

1xBet

2.46

Under

Bet365

1.47

Betano

1.45

1xBet

1.36

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Svendborg -26Actual: Svendborg -26

SVEN -26

no forecast

@ 2.38

VAER +26

no forecast

@ 1.62

Best 5 market prices

SVEN

Pinnacle

2.38

Bet365

2.15

VAER

Bet365

1.62

Marathon Be

1.53

Pinnacle

1.51

Spread Svendborg -23 · main lineActual: Svendborg -23

SVEN -23

50.0%

@ 1.86-0.2pp

VAER +23

50.0%

@ 1.87+0.2pp

Best 5 market prices

SVEN

Pinnacle

1.86

1xBet

1.84

Marathon Be

1.84

Bet365

1.80

SBO

1.79

VAER

SBO

1.87

Pinnacle

1.87

1xBet

1.87

Marathon Be

1.87

Bet365

1.86

Spread Svendborg -20Actual: Svendborg -20

SVEN -20

60.9%

@ 1.55+1.1pp

VAER +20

39.1%

@ 2.30-1.1pp

Best 5 market prices

SVEN

Bet365

1.55

VAER

Bet365

2.30

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

SvendborgVaerlose

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	21.9	20.8	42.7	+1.1	60%	53%
Last 30 at home (16)	21.1	18.0	39.1	+3.1	69%	31%
Last 30 away (14)	22.8	24.0	46.8	-1.2	50%	79%
Last 10 (10)	19.5	22.6	42.1	-3.1	40%	60%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	22.0	44.2	+0.2	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	20.5	23.5	44.0	-3.0	25%	50%
vs Similar (8)	20.2	23.0	43.2	-2.8	38%	38%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)	22.9	19.2	42.1	+3.7	78%	61%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	20.6	22.6	43.3	-2.0	37%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	19.3	22.3	41.6	-2.9	27%	47%
Last 30 away (15)	21.9	23.0	44.9	-1.1	47%	67%
Last 10 (10)	19.8	20.2	40.0	-0.4	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	19.6	21.6	41.2	-2.0	20%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)	19.8	23.4	43.1	-3.6	43%	57%
vs Similar (14)	21.1	21.4	42.6	-0.3	36%	50%
vs Weaker (2)	23.0	26.0	49.0	-3.0	0%	100%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	23.1	19.9	43.0	+3.2	63%	63%
Last 30 at home (16)	22.4	19.2	41.6	+3.2	62%	56%
Last 30 away (14)	23.9	20.7	44.6	+3.1	64%	71%
Last 10 (10)	24.6	19.3	43.9	+5.3	80%	80%
Last 5 (5)	24.4	18.4	42.8	+6.0	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	20.0	20.0	40.0	+0.0	50%	25%
vs Similar (8)	23.1	21.1	44.2	+2.0	50%	75%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)	23.8	19.3	43.1	+4.4	72%	67%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 40.5
Last 30 (30)	17.8	23.3	41.1	-5.5	17%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	17.0	23.5	40.5	-6.5	13%	60%
Last 30 away (15)	18.5	23.1	41.7	-4.6	20%	53%
Last 10 (10)	18.0	22.9	40.9	-4.9	30%	80%
Last 5 (5)	18.0	23.6	41.6	-5.6	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)	17.0	23.7	40.7	-6.7	14%	57%
vs Similar (14)	18.3	22.6	40.9	-4.3	14%	50%
vs Weaker (2)	19.5	25.5	45.0	-6.0	50%	100%

SvendborgLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Team FOG Naestved

35-47

-12

H07/05

Basketligaen

Horsens

50-44

H14/05

Basketligaen

Horsens

38-40

-2

H17/09

Basketligaen

Randers

43-37

A23/09

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

42-49

-7

H26/09

Basketligaen

Vejen

55-35

+20

H02/10

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

49-35

+14

A07/10

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

34-50

-16

A15/10

Basketligaen

Bears Academy

#11

48-35

+13

H23/10

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

47-47

A31/10

Basketligaen

86.0Avg total

44.1Scored

41.9Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83.25
Last 30 (30)	45.0	40.7	85.7	+4.3	57%	57%
Last 30 at home (16)	43.5	37.2	80.7	+6.3	56%	31%
Last 30 away (14)	46.6	44.7	91.4	+1.9	57%	86%
Last 10 (10)	44.1	41.9	86.0	+2.2	50%	60%
Last 5 (5)	46.6	40.4	87.0	+6.2	60%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	40.5	43.5	84.0	-3.0	50%	50%
vs Similar (8)	43.4	44.1	87.5	-0.8	50%	38%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)	46.7	38.6	85.2	+8.1	61%	67%

This opponent (Vaerlose) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

VaerloseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Bears Academy

32-50

-18

H28/04

Basketligaen

Gladsaxe

42-34

A19/09

Basketligaen

Copenhagen

39-39

A22/09

Basketligaen

Randers

36-36

H27/09

Basketligaen

Horsens

41-46

-5

A02/10

Basketligaen

Vejen

45-44

A08/10

Basketligaen

Bakken Bears

41-56

-15

H18/10

Basketligaen

Holbaek-Stenhus

24-40

-16

H24/10

Basketligaen

BMS Herlev

#12

48-49

-1

A30/10

Basketligaen

Team FOG Naestved

30-37

-7

H04/11

Basketligaen

80.9Avg total

37.8Scored

43.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 83.25
Last 30 (30)	38.4	45.9	84.3	-7.5	23%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	36.3	45.7	82.1	-9.4	20%	47%
Last 30 away (15)	40.5	46.1	86.6	-5.7	27%	67%
Last 10 (10)	37.8	43.1	80.9	-5.3	20%	40%
Last 5 (5)	37.6	45.2	82.8	-7.6	20%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)	36.8	47.1	83.9	-10.3	7%	50%
vs Similar (14)	39.4	44.0	83.4	-4.6	43%	57%
vs Weaker (2)	42.5	51.5	94.0	-9.0	0%	100%

This opponent (Svendborg) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winnerActual: Svendborg win

SVEN win

no forecast

@ 1.08

VAER win

no forecast

@ 8.00

1st half Spread Svendborg -13.5 · main lineActual: Svendborg -13.5

SVEN -13.5

no forecast

@ 2.00

VAER +13.5

no forecast

@ 2.00

1st half Over/Under 83.25 · main lineActual: Under 83.25

Over

no forecast

@ 1.80

Under

no forecast

@ 1.82

Svendborg 1st half total 48 · main lineActual: Svendborg over 48

Over

no forecast

@ 1.81

Under

no forecast

@ 1.89

Vaerlose 1st half total 35 · main lineActual: Vaerlose under 35

Over

no forecast

@ 1.85

Under

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half: SVEN + total 84.5

SVEN & over

no forecast

@ 2.15

SVEN & under

no forecast

@ 2.05

1st half: Draw + total 84.5

Draw & over

no forecast

@ 41.00

Draw & under

no forecast

@ 41.00

1st half: VAER + total 84.5

VAER & over

no forecast

@ 13.50

VAER & under

no forecast

@ 13.00

1st half Over/Under 84.5Actual: Under 84.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.11

Under

no forecast

@ 1.80

1st half Spread Svendborg -14.5Actual: Svendborg -14.5

SVEN -14.5

no forecast

@ 2.20

VAER +14.5

no forecast

@ 1.85

1st half Spread Svendborg -12.5Actual: Svendborg -12.5

SVEN -12.5

no forecast

@ 1.85

VAER +12.5

no forecast

@ 2.15

1st half Over/Under 81.5Actual: Under 81.5

Over

no forecast

@ 1.62

Under

no forecast

@ 2.20

1st half Over/Under 86.5Actual: Under 86.5

Over

no forecast

@ 2.22

Under

no forecast

@ 1.62

1st half Spread Svendborg -15.5Actual: Svendborg -15.5

SVEN -15.5

no forecast

@ 2.14

VAER +15.5

no forecast

@ 1.72

1st half Spread Svendborg -11.5Actual: Svendborg -11.5

SVEN -11.5

no forecast

@ 1.65

VAER +11.5

no forecast

@ 2.15

1st half 3-way (draw possible)Actual: Svendborg (regulation)

SVEN

no forecast

@ 1.10

Draw

no forecast

@ 28.00

VAER

no forecast

@ 11.25

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.25
Last 30 (30)	21.2	19.4	40.6	+1.8	57%	47%
Last 30 at home (16)	20.8	17.7	38.5	+3.1	56%	38%
Last 30 away (14)	21.6	21.4	43.0	+0.3	57%	57%
Last 10 (10)	22.6	19.6	42.2	+3.0	70%	60%
Last 5 (5)	22.8	19.2	42.0	+3.6	80%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	22.8	16.5	39.2	+6.2	75%	50%
vs Similar (8)	18.0	23.0	41.0	-5.0	25%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)	22.3	18.4	40.7	+3.8	67%	44%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41.25
Last 30 (30)	19.0	22.9	41.9	-3.9	23%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	19.7	22.2	41.9	-2.5	40%	40%
Last 30 away (15)	18.3	23.5	41.8	-5.3	7%	73%
Last 10 (10)	17.8	23.5	41.3	-5.7	20%	40%
Last 5 (5)	17.4	24.4	41.8	-7.0	20%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)	17.2	24.6	41.9	-7.4	7%	50%
vs Similar (14)	20.9	21.6	42.6	-0.7	43%	71%
vs Weaker (2)	18.0	19.0	37.0	-1.0	0%	0%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41
Last 30 (30)	23.1	20.2	43.3	+3.0	50%	57%
Last 30 at home (16)	22.7	20.0	42.7	+2.7	44%	50%
Last 30 away (14)	23.6	20.4	44.0	+3.3	57%	64%
Last 10 (10)	23.5	21.3	44.8	+2.2	50%	80%
Last 5 (5)	24.0	21.4	45.4	+2.6	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	24.8	23.5	48.2	+1.2	50%	75%
vs Similar (8)	22.4	23.1	45.5	-0.8	38%	75%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)	23.1	18.1	41.2	+5.0	56%	44%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 41
Last 30 (30)	21.5	21.4	43.0	+0.1	57%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	21.1	21.8	42.9	-0.7	60%	47%
Last 30 away (15)	21.9	21.1	43.0	+0.9	53%	67%
Last 10 (10)	20.5	23.0	43.5	-2.5	40%	60%
Last 5 (5)	20.4	23.8	44.2	-3.4	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)	20.0	23.4	43.4	-3.4	43%	64%
vs Similar (14)	23.1	19.4	42.5	+3.8	71%	50%
vs Weaker (2)	21.0	22.5	43.5	-1.5	50%	50%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 82.25
Last 30 (30)	44.3	39.6	83.9	+4.8	60%	57%
Last 30 at home (16)	43.5	37.7	81.2	+5.8	62%	44%
Last 30 away (14)	45.3	41.7	87.0	+3.6	57%	71%
Last 10 (10)	46.1	40.9	87.0	+5.2	70%	80%
Last 5 (5)	46.8	40.6	87.4	+6.2	80%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)	47.5	40.0	87.5	+7.5	75%	75%
vs Similar (8)	40.4	46.1	86.5	-5.8	25%	88%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)	45.4	36.6	81.9	+8.8	72%	39%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 82.25
Last 30 (30)	40.5	44.3	84.8	-3.8	40%	57%
Last 30 at home (15)	40.9	44.0	84.9	-3.1	40%	47%
Last 30 away (15)	40.2	44.6	84.8	-4.4	40%	67%
Last 10 (10)	38.3	46.5	84.8	-8.2	30%	60%
Last 5 (5)	37.8	48.2	86.0	-10.4	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)	37.2	48.0	85.2	-10.8	14%	57%
vs Similar (14)	44.1	41.0	85.1	+3.1	64%	64%
vs Weaker (2)	39.0	41.5	80.5	-2.5	50%	0%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

SVEN win + total 166.5

🔒 Pro

VAER win + total 166.5

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: SVEN leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: VAER leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (SVEN:VAER): split

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (SVEN:VAER): SVEN wins more

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (SVEN:VAER): VAER wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Use Min odds to match the prices you want; Edge = Yes shows only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Svendborg (regulation)	96.8%	1.03	Betano 1.03	-	-	-	-	+11.1pp	Won
Svendborg over 84.5	87.9%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+8.4pp	Won
Svendborg over 85.5	85.8%	1.20	Bet365 1.20	-	-	-	-	+8.0pp	Won
Svendborg over 89.5	74.7%	1.32	1xBet 1.32	-	-	-	-	+7.9pp	Lost
Svendborg -15.5	74.7%	1.37	Betano 1.37	-	-	-	-	+7.7pp	Won
Svendborg over 88.5	77.9%	1.29	Bet365 1.31	1xBet 1.27	-	-	-	+7.4pp	Lost
Svendborg over 86.5	83.4%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+7.2pp	Lost
Svendborg over 78.5	96.1%	1.05	Bet365 1.05	-	-	-	-	+7.1pp	Won
Svendborg over 82.5	91.5%	1.11	Bet365 1.11	-	-	-	-	+7.1pp	Won
Svendborg over 76.5	97.5%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+7.1pp	Won
Svendborg over 80.5	94.2%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+7.0pp	Won
Svendborg over 74.5	98.5%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Svendborg over 75.5	98.0%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+6.9pp	Won
Svendborg over 90.5	71.4%	1.40	Betano 1.42	Bet365 1.41	1xBet 1.38	-	-	+6.7pp	Lost
Over 159.5	72.5%	1.39	Betano 1.39	-	-	-	-	+6.5pp	Lost
Over 160.5	70.3%	1.44	Betano 1.44	-	-	-	-	+6.4pp	Lost
Svendborg win	97.3%	1.02	WilliamHill 1.03	Betano 1.03	BetVictor 1.02	1xBet 1.02	Betfair 1.02	+5.6pp	Won
Over 142.5	95.1%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Svendborg -16.5	71.8%	1.37	Betano 1.37	-	-	-	-	+4.9pp	Won
Over 157.5	76.5%	1.29	Bet365 1.29	-	-	-	-	+4.6pp	Lost
Over 152.5	84.9%	1.15	Bet365 1.15	-	-	-	-	+4.4pp	Lost
Over 147.5	91.1%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+3.9pp	Lost
Svendborg -3.5	95.4%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+3.9pp	Won
Svendborg -13.5	79.9%	1.22	Bet365 1.22	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Vaerlose under 91.5	96.5%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.7pp	Won
Vaerlose under 89.5	94.8%	1.02	Bet365 1.02	-	-	-	-	+3.6pp	Won
Vaerlose under 92.5	97.1%	1.01	Bet365 1.01	-	-	-	-	+3.4pp	Won
Vaerlose under 87.5	92.4%	1.04	Bet365 1.04	-	-	-	-	+2.8pp	Won
Svendborg -8.5	89.6%	1.07	Bet365 1.07	-	-	-	-	+2.5pp	Won
Under 192.5	92.6%	1.03	Bet365 1.03	-	-	-	-	+2.4pp	Won
Vaerlose under 85.5	89.3%	1.06	Bet365 1.06	-	-	-	-	+1.3pp	Won
Vaerlose under 81.5	80.3%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+0.8pp	Won
Under 187.5	87.3%	1.08	Bet365 1.08	-	-	-	-	+0.7pp	Won
Vaerlose under 82.5	82.9%	1.13	Bet365 1.13	-	-	-	-	+0.6pp	Won
Under 182.5	79.8%	1.16	Bet365 1.16	-	-	-	-	+0.2pp	Won
Vaerlose under 83.5	85.3%	1.10	Bet365 1.10	-	-	-	-	+0.2pp	Won
Vaerlose under 79.5	74.3%	1.23	Bet365 1.23	-	-	-	-	-1.0pp	Won

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Svendborgtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Svendborg: 90.8 points a game scored

🏀🏀53%

🏀🏀🏀27%

🏀20%

🏀🏀 2-pointers48.2 pts a game · 53% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 27% of the points

🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 20% of the points

League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game

52%

31%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.4	24.1	58.2%	55.2%	48.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.5	8.1	30.6%	31.2%	24.3
🏀 Free throws	25.3	18.3	72.3%	68.0%	18.3

They take 67.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Vaerlosetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Vaerlose: 81.8 points a game scored

🏀🏀52%

🏀🏀🏀31%

🏀17%

🏀🏀 2-pointers42.6 pts a game · 52% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.5 pts a game · 31% of the points

🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points

League average for comparison: 86.0 points a game

52%

31%

17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.6	21.3	53.8%	55.2%	42.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	28.7	8.5	29.6%	31.2%	25.5
🏀 Free throws	21.7	13.7	63.1%	68.0%	13.7

They take 68.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.8	20.1	50.5%	55.2%	40.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.9	7.7	30.9%	31.2%	23.1
🏀 Free throws	26.6	20.0	75.2%	68.0%	20.0

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.5	23.1	57.0%	55.2%	46.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.6	9.4	36.7%	31.2%	28.2
🏀 Free throws	24.9	16.6	66.7%	68.0%	16.6

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	42.4	24.0	56.6%	55.2%	48.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.3	8.5	32.4%	31.2%	25.6
🏀 Free throws	21.8	15.8	72.3%	68.0%	15.8

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.8	20.4	53.9%	55.2%	40.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.9	8.0	32.2%	31.2%	24.1
🏀 Free throws	25.1	16.8	67.2%	68.0%	16.8

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.8	21.6	53.1%	55.2%	43.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.4	7.3	28.6%	31.2%	21.8
🏀 Free throws	22.9	16.3	70.9%	68.0%	16.3

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.5	22.4	56.7%	55.2%	44.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.2	9.5	35.0%	31.2%	28.6
🏀 Free throws	24.0	17.0	70.8%	68.0%	17.0

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Svendborg

WWLWWWWLWL

Vaerlose

LWLLLLLLWL

League position

#10

+8.0

Net rating

-9.7

97.2

Offensive rating

86.1

89.2

Defensive rating

95.7

53.4%

Effective FG%

49.9%

48.9%

Opp. effective FG%

56.3%

15.8%

Turnover %

17.7%

0.37

Free-throw rate

0.32

30.6%

3-point %

29.6%

62.1%

Assist %

61.7%

70%

Form (last 10/10)

20%

Profile

■ Svendborg ■ Vaerlose

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Svendborg wins

Vaerlose wins

Date	Game	Score
14/02/26	Svendborg v Vaerlose	100-69
09/10/25	Vaerlose v Svendborg	68-124
05/01/25	Vaerlose v Svendborg	70-86
10/10/24	Svendborg v Vaerlose	76-62
08/04/24	Svendborg v Vaerlose	88-83
07/03/24	Vaerlose v Svendborg	95-98
15/01/24	Svendborg v Vaerlose	98-76
22/10/23	Vaerlose v Svendborg	79-83
29/12/22	Svendborg v Vaerlose	83-75
14/10/22	Vaerlose v Svendborg	78-76

Svendborglast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
31/10/26	A	Copenhagen	103-98 OT
23/10/26	H	Bears Academy	97-82
15/10/26	A	Team FOG Naestved	83-86
07/10/26	A	Gladsaxe	92-70
02/10/26	H	Vejen	102-74
26/09/26	H	Holbaek-Stenhus	86-75
23/09/26	A	Randers	96-83
17/09/26	H	Horsens	70-92
14/05/26	H	Horsens	103-78
07/05/26	H	Team FOG Naestved	80-95

Vaerloselast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
04/11/26	H	Team FOG Naestved	62-95
30/10/26	A	BMS Herlev	107-99 OT
24/10/26	H	Holbaek-Stenhus	64-68
18/10/26	H	Bakken Bears	82-123
08/10/26	A	Vejen	80-92
02/10/26	A	Horsens	79-99
27/09/26	H	Randers	85-89 OT
22/09/26	A	Copenhagen	74-88
19/09/26	A	Gladsaxe	88-78
28/04/26	H	Bears Academy	70-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Svendborg

Basketligaen 2026-27

Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLWW	75%
Home	LWWW	75%
Away	WWLW	75%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	8	4	4
Win %	75%	75%	75%
Points / game	91.1	88.8	93.5
Allowed / game	82.5	80.8	84.2
Point differential	+8.6	+8.0	+9.2
Avg total	173.6	169.5	177.8
Over 166.25	62%	50%	75%
Win by 10+	62%	75%	50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	50% (2)	-	50% (2)
Overtime %	12%	0%	25%

Vaerlose

Basketligaen 2026-27

Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LLLWL	22%
Home	LLLL	0%
Away	WLLLW	40%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	4	5
Win %	22%	0%	40%
Points / game	80.1	73.2	85.6
Allowed / game	92.3	93.8	91.2
Point differential	-12.2	-20.5	-5.6
Avg total	172.4	167.0	176.8
Over 166.25	56%	50%	60%
Win by 10+	11%	0%	20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	0% (2)	0% (2)	-
Overtime %	22%	25%	20%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Team FOG Naestved	9	9	0	100%	102.8	69.3	+33.4
2	Bakken Bears	7	7	0	100%	105.6	76.1	+29.4
3	Horsens	9	7	2	78%	88.2	79.9	+8.3
4	Svendborg	8	6	2	75%	91.1	82.5	+8.6
5	Randers	9	6	3	67%	95.3	86.2	+9.1
6	Copenhagen	9	5	4	56%	84.0	81.6	+2.4
7	Holbaek-Stenhus	10	4	6	40%	77.1	87.4	-10.3
8	Vejen	9	3	6	33%	80.9	93.6	-12.7
9	Gladsaxe	10	3	7	30%	79.4	88.9	-9.5
10	Vaerlose	9	2	7	22%	80.1	92.3	-12.2
11	BMS Herlev	9	1	8	11%	75.9	97.6	-21.7
12	Bears Academy	10	1	9	10%	78.8	92.6	-13.8

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Svendborg	26	24	18	18	86
Vaerlose	16	15	17	11	59

← all games of the day

Svendborg vs Vaerlose Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

📋 13. Box Score

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