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Tennessee State vs Morehead State Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 16 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#186
Record2-2
FormLLWWL
Points / game98.0
Allowed / game77.8
vs
Position#237
Record2-2
FormLLWLW
Points / game77.0
Allowed / game81.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · Tennessee State v Morehead State
16 Jan 2027
TENN v MORE
upcoming
07 Mar 2026
TENN93
MORE67
15 Jan 2026
TENN105
MORE100
27 Feb 2025
TENN64
MORE55
01 Feb 2024
TENN49
MORE68
29 Dec 2022
TENN75
MORE83
15 Jan 2022
TENN64
MORE71
11 Feb 2021
TENN66
MORE79
04 Mar 2020
TENN74
MORE67
16 Jan 2020
TENN64
MORE48
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tennessee State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Morehead State win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Tennessee StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siu Edwardsville
#118
W
80-53
80
53
+27
H21/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
W
79-71
79
71
+8
A27/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
67-42
67
42
+25
A28/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
68-55
68
55
+13
H07/03
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
93-67
93
67
+26
H08/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
74-108
74
108
-34
A20/03
NCAA
Murray State
#25
L
64-94
64
94
-30
H02/11
NCAA
EWU Phantoms
#531
W
127-61
127
61
+66
H06/11
NCAA
Fisk
#476
W
123-73
123
73
+50
H10/11
NCAA
Tennessee
#55
L
78-83
78
83
-5
A14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
40-26
40-27
33-38
46-33
35-21
32-21
36-28
32-27
55-34
38-33
29-55
45-53
35-46
29-48
54-28
73-33
54-36
69-37
37-42
41-41
156.0Avg total
85.3Scored
70.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)98.077.8175.8+20.250%
Season at home (3)104.776.0180.7+28.767%
Season away (1)78.083.0161.0-5.00%
Last 10 (10)85.370.7156.0+14.670%
Last 5 (5)93.283.8177.0+9.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)69.0101.0170.0-32.00%
vs Similar (10)78.370.6148.9+7.770%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)84.172.8156.9+11.278%
This opponent (Morehead State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Morehead StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
73-70
73
70
+3
A20/02
NCAA
Western Illinois
#366
W
81-59
81
59
+22
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
W
64-63
64
63
+1
H25/02
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
76-70
76
70
+6
A27/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
W
66-61
66
61
+5
H07/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
L
67-93
67
93
-26
A08/03
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#97
L
58-83
58
83
-25
A03/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
114-60
114
60
+54
H05/11
NCAA
Louisville
#10
L
57-107
57
107
-50
A07/11
NCAA
IU Indy
#125
W
79-75
79
75
+4
H15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
29-28
44-42
43-27
38-32
29-29
35-34
37-24
39-46
29-36
37-25
34-55
33-38
28-38
30-45
58-24
56-36
33-46
24-61
32-28
47-47
147.6Avg total
73.5Scored
74.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)77.081.2158.2-4.250%
Season at home (2)96.567.5164.0+29.0100%
Season away (2)57.595.0152.5-37.50%
Last 10 (10)73.574.1147.6-0.670%
Last 5 (5)75.083.6158.6-8.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)72.281.1153.2-8.942%
vs Similar (9)69.672.2141.8-2.767%
vs Weaker (8)78.565.9144.4+12.688%
This opponent (Tennessee State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +5.4+5.41st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: +9.2+9.22nd half: -2.3-2.3
-12-6+0+6+121st half1st half: +5.4+5.41st half: +1.7+1.72nd half2nd half: +9.2+9.22nd half: -2.3-2.3
Tennessee StateMorehead State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Tennessee StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Siu Edwardsville
#118
W
40-26
40
26
+14
H21/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A27/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
35-21
35
21
+14
A28/02
NCAA
UT Martin
#72
W
36-28
36
28
+8
H07/03
NCAA
Morehead State
#112
W
55-34
55
34
+21
H08/03
NCAA
Iowa State
#34
L
29-55
29
55
-26
A20/03
NCAA
Murray State
#25
L
35-46
35
46
-11
H02/11
NCAA
EWU Phantoms
#531
W
54-28
54
28
+26
H06/11
NCAA
Fisk
#476
W
54-36
54
36
+18
H10/11
NCAA
Tennessee
#55
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A14/11
NCAA
76.2Avg total
40.8Scored
35.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.935.573.4+2.453%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.435.275.6+5.260%-
Last 30 away (15)35.435.771.1-0.347%-
Last 10 (10)40.835.476.2+5.460%-
Last 5 (5)41.841.483.2+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)32.050.582.5-18.50%-
vs Similar (10)36.935.172.0+1.840%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)39.134.073.1+5.167%-
This opponent (Morehead State) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Morehead StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Eastern Illinois
#285
W
29-28
29
28
+1
A20/02
NCAA
Western Illinois
#366
W
43-27
43
27
+16
A21/02
NCAA
Southern Indiana
#357
D
29-29
29
29
+0
H25/02
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
37-24
37
24
+13
A27/02
NCAA
Southeast Missouri State
#110
L
29-36
29
36
-7
H07/03
NCAA
Tennessee State
#51
L
34-55
34
55
-21
A08/03
NCAA
Western Kentucky
#97
L
28-38
28
38
-10
A03/11
NCAA
Virginia-Lynchburg
#498
W
58-24
58
24
+34
H05/11
NCAA
Louisville
#10
L
33-46
33
46
-13
A07/11
NCAA
IU Indy
#125
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H15/11
NCAA
68.7Avg total
35.2Scored
33.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.534.069.5+1.547%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.531.870.3+6.757%-
Last 30 away (16)32.935.968.9-3.038%-
Last 10 (10)35.233.568.7+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)37.038.275.2-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)33.638.071.6-4.433%-
vs Similar (9)32.733.766.3-1.044%-
vs Weaker (8)38.528.967.4+9.662%-
This opponent (Tennessee State) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26ATennessee78-83
10/11/26HFisk123-73
06/11/26HEWU Phantoms127-61
02/11/26HMurray State64-94
20/03/26AIowa State74-108
08/03/26HMorehead State93-67
07/03/26HUT Martin68-55
28/02/26AUT Martin67-42
27/02/26ASoutheast Missouri State79-71
21/02/26HSiu Edwardsville80-53
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HIU Indy79-75
07/11/26ALouisville57-107
05/11/26HVirginia-Lynchburg114-60
03/11/26AWestern Kentucky58-83
08/03/26ATennessee State67-93
07/03/26HSoutheast Missouri State66-61
27/02/26AUALR76-70
25/02/26HSouthern Indiana64-63
21/02/26AWestern Illinois81-59
20/02/26AEastern Illinois73-70

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tennessee State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWL50%
HomeLWW67%
AwayL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games431
Win %50%67%0%
Points / game98.0104.778.0
Allowed / game77.876.083.0
Point differential+20.2+28.7-5.0
Avg total175.8180.7161.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)-0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Morehead State
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLW50%
HomeWW100%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%100%0%
Points / game77.096.557.5
Allowed / game81.267.595.0
Point differential-4.2+29.0-37.5
Avg total158.2164.0152.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Ohio Valley conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tennessee State42250%98.077.8+20.2
2 UT Martin42250%85.074.2+10.8
3 Southeast Missouri State42250%79.877.5+2.2
4 Tennessee Tech42250%92.090.0+2.0
5 Morehead State42250%77.081.2-4.2
6 Lindenwood52340%82.069.8+12.2
7 Siu Edwardsville52340%71.672.8-1.2
8 Southern Indiana41325%78.066.5+11.5
9 Western Illinois41325%74.573.2+1.2
10 UALR41325%76.085.5-9.5
11 Eastern Illinois41325%69.080.0-11.0
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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