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Texas State vs Troy Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 74-62
36-29 38-33
Position#125
Record15-11
FormLWWWW
Points / game73.7
Allowed / game70.7
vs
Position#84
Record17-8
FormWLLWW
Points / game83.1
Allowed / game74.9
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Texas State v Troy
11 Feb 2026
TEXA74
TROY62
25 Feb 2025
TEXA69
TROY74
01 Mar 2024
TEXA82
TROY79
31 Dec 2022
TEXA52
TROY55
30 Dec 2021
TEXA63
TROY78
06 Jan 2020
TEXA63
TROY71
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Texas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Troy winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Miss
#174
L
70-80 OT
70
80
-10
A09/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
82-83
82
83
-1
A10/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H15/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
74-67
74
67
+7
H17/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
70-72
70
72
-2
A23/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
57-82
57
82
-25
A24/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
72-68
72
68
+4
H29/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
81-64
81
64
+17
H31/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
77-71
77
71
+6
A05/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
77-61
77
61
+16
H07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
28-29
37-36
37-43
45-40
29-22
30-32
27-28
47-39
27-32
43-40
28-47
29-35
39-29
33-39
42-33
39-31
30-31
47-40
36-25
41-36
142.1Avg total
71.9Scored
70.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)73.770.7144.3+3.058%
Season at home (15)76.864.4141.2+12.487%
Season away (11)69.479.3148.6-9.918%
Last 10 (10)71.970.2142.1+1.760%
Last 5 (5)72.869.2142.0+3.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)70.083.0153.0-13.033%
vs Similar ◀ (15)73.778.3151.9-4.640%
vs Weaker (12)77.161.5138.6+15.683%
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#98
L
74-86
74
86
-12
A08/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
90-70
90
70
+20
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
91-65
91
65
+26
H15/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
99-74
99
74
+25
H17/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
83-77 OT
83
77
+6
A22/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
83-78
83
78
+5
A24/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
64-73
64
73
-9
H30/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
44-66
44
66
-22
H31/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
W
74-63
74
63
+11
A05/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
79-69
79
69
+10
H07/02
NCAA
1H
2H
32-45
42-41
53-35
37-35
42-26
49-39
44-35
55-39
35-35
29-29
47-38
36-40
28-31
36-42
24-36
20-30
28-28
46-35
35-29
44-40
150.2Avg total
78.1Scored
72.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (25)83.174.9158.0+8.268%
Season at home (12)82.167.5149.6+14.667%
Season away (13)84.181.8165.8+2.369%
Last 10 (10)78.172.1150.2+6.070%
Last 5 (5)68.869.8138.6-1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)79.069.0148.0+10.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (14)77.876.7154.5+1.164%
vs Weaker (14)83.172.0155.1+11.171%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.4+0.41st half: +3.0+3.02nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: +2.4+2.4
-4-2+0+2+41st half1st half: +0.4+0.41st half: +3.0+3.02nd half2nd half: +2.3+2.32nd half: +2.4+2.4
Texas StateTroy
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Southern Miss
#174
L
28-29
28
29
-1
A09/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
37-43
37
43
-6
A10/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
29-22
29
22
+7
H15/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
27-28
27
28
-1
H17/01
NCAA
Coastal Carolina
#127
L
27-32
27
32
-5
A23/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
28-47
28
47
-19
A24/01
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
39-29
39
29
+10
H29/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
W
42-33
42
33
+9
H31/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
L
30-31
30
31
-1
A05/02
NCAA
Western Michigan
#325
W
36-25
36
25
+11
H07/02
NCAA
64.2Avg total
32.3Scored
31.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.833.067.8+1.847%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.130.866.9+5.363%-
Last 30 away (11)32.536.969.5-4.418%-
Last 10 (10)32.331.964.2+0.440%-
Last 5 (5)35.033.068.0+2.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)34.037.371.3-3.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)31.536.768.1-5.27%-
vs Weaker (12)39.227.466.6+11.7100%-
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-45
32
45
-13
A08/01
NCAA
Louisiana Lafayette
#320
W
53-35
53
35
+18
A10/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H15/01
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
W
44-35
44
35
+9
H17/01
NCAA
Old Dominion
#300
D
35-35
35
35
+0
A22/01
NCAA
Georgia Southern
#142
W
47-38
47
38
+9
A24/01
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
28-31
28
31
-3
H30/01
NCAA
Appalachian State
#119
L
24-36
24
36
-12
H31/01
NCAA
Georgia State
#332
D
28-28
28
28
+0
A05/02
NCAA
Akron
#14
W
35-29
35
29
+6
H07/02
NCAA
70.6Avg total
36.8Scored
33.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)37.331.568.8+5.757%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.729.167.8+9.679%-
Last 30 away (16)36.033.769.7+2.338%-
Last 10 (10)36.833.870.6+3.050%-
Last 5 (5)32.432.464.8+0.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)35.029.064.0+6.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)35.133.868.9+1.350%-
vs Weaker (14)38.229.868.0+8.457%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Texas State wins
6
Troy wins
DateGameScore
31/12/25Troy v Texas State100-80
26/02/25Texas State v Troy69-74
10/01/25Troy v Texas State73-74
09/03/24Troy v Texas State68-74
02/03/24Texas State v Troy82-79 OT
25/01/24Troy v Texas State78-65
05/02/23Troy v Texas State68-64
31/12/22Texas State v Troy52-55
26/02/22Troy v Texas State61-66
31/12/21Texas State v Troy63-78
Texas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26HWestern Michigan77-61
05/02/26AGeorgia Southern77-71
31/01/26HOld Dominion81-64
29/01/26HMarshall72-68
24/01/26AJames Madison57-82
23/01/26ACoastal Carolina70-72
17/01/26HSouthern Miss74-67
15/01/26HLouisiana Lafayette59-54
10/01/26AArkansas State82-83
09/01/26ASouthern Miss70-80 OT
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/26HAkron79-69
05/02/26AGeorgia State74-63
31/01/26HAppalachian State44-66
30/01/26HJames Madison64-73
24/01/26AGeorgia Southern83-78
22/01/26AOld Dominion83-77 OT
17/01/26HArkansas State99-74
15/01/26HSouthern Miss91-65
10/01/26ALouisiana Lafayette90-70
08/01/26AArkansas State74-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Texas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW58%
HomeWWWWW87%
AwayLLLLW18%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261511
Win %58%87%18%
Points / game73.776.869.4
Allowed / game70.764.479.3
Point differential+3.0+12.4-9.9
Avg total144.3141.2148.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%47%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)80% (5)25% (4)
Overtime %8%7%9%
Troy
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW68%
HomeWWLLW67%
AwayLWWWW69%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games251213
Win %68%67%69%
Points / game83.182.184.1
Allowed / game74.967.581.8
Point differential+8.2+14.6+2.3
Avg total158.0149.6165.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%58%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)0% (1)80% (5)
Overtime %20%8%31%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Troy2517868%83.174.9+8.2
2 Appalachian State2617965%71.364.1+7.2
3 Marshall2516964%80.075.0+5.0
4 South Alabama2415962%72.668.2+4.5
5 Arkansas State25151060%81.477.2+4.2
6 Texas State26151158%73.770.7+3.0
7 Coastal Carolina26151158%73.772.3+1.3
8 Georgia Southern25141156%81.079.6+1.4
9 Southern Miss26131350%73.373.2+0.2
10 James Madison25121348%73.875.1-1.2
11 Georgia State2591636%70.873.9-3.1
12 Louisiana Lafayette2591636%62.569.0-6.6
13 Old Dominion2681831%74.377.7-3.3
14 Louisiana Monroe2542116%71.882.1-10.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Texas State363874
Troy293362
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