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Troy vs Texas State Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 31 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 100-80
45-33 55-47
Position#84
Record8-5
FormWLWWW
Points / game87.5
Allowed / game78.7
Troy 🏆
USA
vs
Position#125
Record8-6
FormLLWLW
Points / game73.7
Allowed / game68.4
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Troy v Texas State
31 Dec 2025
TROY100
TEXA80
09 Jan 2025
TROY73
TEXA74
09 Mar 2024
TROY68
TEXA74
24 Jan 2024
TROY78
TEXA65
04 Feb 2023
TROY68
TEXA64
25 Feb 2022
TROY61
TEXA66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Troy winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Texas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TroyUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Marymount
#234
L
63-74
63
74
-11
A15/11
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
L
85-94
85
94
-9
A17/11
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
W
108-107 OT
108
107
+1
A19/11
NCAA
USC
#153
L
106-107 OT
106
107
-1
A21/11
NCAA
Toledo
#156
L
68-75
68
75
-7
H24/11
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
W
74-64
74
64
+10
A26/11
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
L
89-93 OT
89
93
-4
H02/12
NCAA
La Grange
#604
W
101-47
101
47
+54
H06/12
NCAA
UAB
#99
W
86-85
86
85
+1
A14/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
70-63
70
63
+7
H20/12
NCAA
1H
2H
25-27
38-47
49-51
36-43
38-38
51-51
29-29
39-39
36-30
32-45
28-33
46-31
28-27
37-38
60-17
41-30
35-39
51-46
36-32
34-31
165.9Avg total
85.0Scored
80.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)87.578.7166.2+8.862%
Season at home (5)89.866.8156.6+23.060%
Season away (8)86.186.1172.2+0.062%
Last 10 (10)85.080.9165.9+4.150%
Last 5 (5)84.070.4154.4+13.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)74.975.2150.1-0.262%
vs Weaker (16)79.968.4148.2+11.569%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#281
W
77-67
77
67
+10
H15/11
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
63-49
63
49
+14
H19/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
65-56
65
56
+9
H22/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
93-41
93
41
+52
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
52-66
52
66
-14
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
74-78 OT
74
78
-4
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
70-89
70
89
-19
H18/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
67-65
67
65
+2
H20/12
NCAA
1H
2H
47-30
30-37
32-22
31-27
28-26
37-30
51-27
42-14
33-33
19-33
34-34
32-32
28-40
44-37
38-38
48-45
32-41
38-48
25-39
42-26
139.0Avg total
71.9Scored
67.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)73.768.4142.1+5.457%
Season at home (10)78.965.2144.1+13.780%
Season away (4)60.876.2137.0-15.50%
Last 10 (10)71.967.1139.0+4.860%
Last 5 (5)73.878.4152.2-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)69.080.7149.7-11.717%
vs Similar ◀ (8)74.179.5153.6-5.438%
vs Weaker (16)78.667.2145.8+11.369%
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.1+4.11st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: +3.4+3.4
-5-3+0+3+51st half1st half: +4.1+4.11st half: +1.8+1.82nd half2nd half: +0.4+0.42nd half: +3.4+3.4
TroyTexas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
TroyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Loyola Marymount
#234
L
25-27
25
27
-2
A15/11
NCAA
CS Northridge
#132
L
49-51
49
51
-2
A17/11
NCAA
San Diego State
#70
D
38-38
38
38
+0
A19/11
NCAA
USC
#153
D
29-29
29
29
+0
A21/11
NCAA
Toledo
#156
W
36-30
36
30
+6
H24/11
NCAA
St. Francis (PA)
#359
L
28-33
28
33
-5
A26/11
NCAA
West Georgia
#243
W
28-27
28
27
+1
H02/12
NCAA
La Grange
#604
W
60-17
60
17
+43
H06/12
NCAA
UAB
#99
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A14/12
NCAA
Marshall
#124
W
36-32
36
32
+4
H20/12
NCAA
68.7Avg total
36.4Scored
32.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.130.666.7+5.553%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.527.968.5+12.685%-
Last 30 away (17)32.632.665.3+0.029%-
Last 10 (10)36.432.368.7+4.140%-
Last 5 (5)37.429.667.0+7.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (13)33.033.566.5-0.538%-
vs Weaker (16)37.228.565.8+8.862%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Southern
#281
W
47-30
47
30
+17
H15/11
NCAA
Abilene Christian
#264
W
32-22
32
22
+10
H19/11
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
28-26
28
26
+2
H22/11
NCAA
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H18/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
25-39
25
39
-14
H20/12
NCAA
67.8Avg total
34.8Scored
33.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.133.468.5+1.743%-
Last 30 at home (19)36.732.669.3+4.253%-
Last 30 away (11)32.334.867.1-2.527%-
Last 10 (10)34.833.067.8+1.840%-
Last 5 (5)31.438.469.8-7.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)33.036.569.5-3.517%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)31.137.468.5-6.20%-
vs Weaker (16)37.930.268.1+7.675%-
This opponent (Troy) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Troy wins
4
Texas State wins
DateGameScore
26/02/25Texas State v Troy69-74
10/01/25Troy v Texas State73-74
09/03/24Troy v Texas State68-74
02/03/24Texas State v Troy82-79 OT
25/01/24Troy v Texas State78-65
05/02/23Troy v Texas State68-64
31/12/22Texas State v Troy52-55
26/02/22Troy v Texas State61-66
31/12/21Texas State v Troy63-78
07/01/20Texas State v Troy63-71
Troylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/12/25HMarshall70-63
14/12/25AUAB86-85
06/12/25HLa Grange101-47
02/12/25HWest Georgia89-93 OT
26/11/25ASt. Francis (PA)74-64
24/11/25HToledo68-75
21/11/25AUSC106-107 OT
19/11/25ASan Diego State108-107 OT
17/11/25ACS Northridge85-94
15/11/25ALoyola Marymount63-74
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/12/25HSouth Alabama67-65
18/12/25HArkansas State70-89
11/12/25HSouthern Univ.86-83
04/12/25ARice72-77
29/11/25HLehigh74-78 OT
28/11/25ASeattle52-66
25/11/25HTexas Lutheran93-41
22/11/25HUALR65-56
19/11/25HAbilene Christian63-49
15/11/25HTexas Southern77-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Troy
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW62%
HomeWLLWW60%
AwayLWLWW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1358
Win %62%60%62%
Points / game87.589.886.1
Allowed / game78.766.886.1
Point differential+8.8+23.0+0.0
Avg total166.2156.6172.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%40%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)0% (1)75% (4)
Overtime %31%20%38%
Texas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLW57%
HomeWLWLW80%
AwayLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games14104
Win %57%80%0%
Points / game73.778.960.8
Allowed / game68.465.276.2
Point differential+5.4+13.7-15.5
Avg total142.1144.1137.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)67% (3)0% (1)
Overtime %7%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State1410471%83.878.0+5.8
2 Georgia Southern1510567%84.078.8+5.2
3 Troy138562%87.578.7+8.8
4 Marshall138562%79.974.8+5.1
5 South Alabama159660%74.068.5+5.5
6 Appalachian State148657%73.465.9+7.5
7 Texas State148657%73.768.4+5.4
8 Coastal Carolina148657%72.870.7+2.1
9 Southern Miss147750%75.473.8+1.6
10 James Madison147750%75.778.0-2.3
11 Old Dominion1441029%73.176.9-3.8
12 Georgia State1441029%68.976.2-7.3
13 Louisiana Monroe1431121%74.082.9-8.9
14 Louisiana Lafayette1531220%57.968.2-10.3
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Troy4555100
Texas State334780
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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