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UMBC Retrievers vs Vermont Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 21 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 23:00
Scheduled
Position#261
Record2-3
FormLLWWL
Points / game70.4
Allowed / game73.8
vs
Position#194
Record2-2
FormLLWLW
Points / game78.5
Allowed / game65.2
USANCAA
Other2026-27
Meetings · UMBC Retrievers v Vermont
21 Jan 2027
UMBC v VERM
upcoming
14 Mar 2026
UMBC74
VERM59
19 Feb 2026
UMBC75
VERM62
01 Mar 2025
UMBC69
VERM79
10 Feb 2024
UMBC70
VERM72
01 Jan 2023
UMBC61
VERM74
15 Jan 2022
UMBC69
VERM86
19 Feb 2021
UMBC66
VERM55
18 Feb 2021
UMBC71
VERM80
11 Jan 2020
UMBC50
VERM74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

UMBC Retrievers win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Vermont win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

UMBC RetrieversUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NJIT
#220
W
91-52
91
52
+39
A03/03
NCAA
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
84-69
84
69
+15
H07/03
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
91-69
91
69
+22
H10/03
NCAA
Vermont
#85
W
74-59
74
59
+15
H14/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
83-86
83
86
-3
A17/03
NCAA
George Mason
#65
L
54-82
54
82
-28
A02/11
NCAA
Marist
#306
L
80-88
80
88
-8
A06/11
NCAA
McDaniel
#417
W
91-61
91
61
+30
H09/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#83
W
85-70
85
70
+15
H12/11
NCAA
Towson
#175
L
42-68
42
68
-26
A15/11
NCAA
1H
2H
46-24
45-28
34-30
50-39
43-29
48-40
30-28
44-31
41-49
42-37
27-33
27-49
33-38
47-50
51-25
40-36
42-39
43-31
19-36
23-32
147.9Avg total
77.5Scored
70.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)70.473.8144.2-3.440%
Season at home (2)88.065.5153.5+22.5100%
Season away (3)58.779.3138.0-20.70%
Last 10 (10)77.570.4147.9+7.160%
Last 5 (5)70.473.8144.2-3.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)60.373.3133.7-13.033%
vs Similar (3)77.389.3166.7-12.00%
vs Weaker (23)77.264.5141.7+12.783%
This opponent (Vermont) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VermontUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NJIT
#220
W
70-64
70
64
+6
A22/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
66-64
66
64
+2
H27/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
69-56
69
56
+13
H04/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
77-57
77
57
+20
H07/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
63-54
63
54
+9
H10/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
59-74
59
74
-15
A14/03
NCAA
Iona
#263
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A03/11
NCAA
Fairfield
#245
W
79-67
79
67
+12
A06/11
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#267
L
76-79
76
79
-3
H08/11
NCAA
Plattsburgh
#471
W
104-59
104
59
+45
H14/11
NCAA
1H
2H
30-30
40-34
34-30
32-34
31-26
38-30
38-27
39-30
26-18
37-36
28-30
31-44
29-21
26-35
38-25
41-42
40-37
36-42
57-32
47-27
134.8Avg total
71.8Scored
63.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (4)78.565.2143.8+13.250%
Season at home (2)90.069.0159.0+21.050%
Season away (2)67.061.5128.5+5.550%
Last 10 (10)71.863.0134.8+8.870%
Last 5 (5)74.667.0141.6+7.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)64.870.2135.0-5.525%
vs Similar (2)74.564.0138.5+10.5100%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)70.865.6136.4+5.365%
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +3.5+3.51st half: +7.5+7.52nd half2nd half: +3.6+3.62nd half: +1.3+1.3
-9-5+0+5+91st half1st half: +3.5+3.51st half: +7.5+7.52nd half2nd half: +3.6+3.62nd half: +1.3+1.3
UMBC RetrieversVermont
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
UMBC RetrieversLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NJIT
#220
W
46-24
46
24
+22
A03/03
NCAA
New Hampshire Wildcats
#340
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H07/03
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
43-29
43
29
+14
H10/03
NCAA
Vermont
#85
W
30-28
30
28
+2
H14/03
NCAA
Howard
#55
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A17/03
NCAA
George Mason
#65
L
27-33
27
33
-6
A02/11
NCAA
Marist
#306
L
33-38
33
38
-5
A06/11
NCAA
McDaniel
#417
W
51-25
51
25
+26
H09/11
NCAA
Morgan State
#83
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H12/11
NCAA
Towson
#175
L
19-36
19
36
-17
A15/11
NCAA
69.7Avg total
36.6Scored
33.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.731.667.3+4.160%-
Last 30 at home (15)37.930.868.7+7.180%-
Last 30 away (15)33.432.465.8+1.040%-
Last 10 (10)36.633.169.7+3.560%-
Last 5 (5)34.434.268.6+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)29.336.065.3-6.733%-
vs Similar (3)34.344.078.3-9.70%-
vs Weaker (23)36.029.765.7+6.370%-
This opponent (Vermont) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VermontLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
NJIT
#220
D
30-30
30
30
+0
A22/02
NCAA
UMass Lowell
#247
W
34-30
34
30
+4
H27/02
NCAA
Albany Great Danes
#312
W
31-26
31
26
+5
H04/03
NCAA
Bryant University
#344
W
38-27
38
27
+11
H07/03
NCAA
NJIT
#220
W
26-18
26
18
+8
H10/03
NCAA
UMBC Retrievers
#43
L
28-30
28
30
-2
A14/03
NCAA
Iona
#263
W
29-21
29
21
+8
A03/11
NCAA
Fairfield
#245
W
38-25
38
25
+13
A06/11
NCAA
Quinnipiac
#267
W
40-37
40
37
+3
H08/11
NCAA
Plattsburgh
#471
W
57-32
57
32
+25
H14/11
NCAA
62.7Avg total
35.1Scored
27.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)33.130.263.3+2.960%-
Last 30 at home (16)35.129.564.6+5.675%-
Last 30 away (14)30.731.061.7-0.343%-
Last 10 (10)35.127.662.7+7.580%-
Last 5 (5)38.429.067.4+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)28.533.061.5-4.50%-
vs Similar (2)35.524.059.5+11.5100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)32.630.262.8+2.465%-
This opponent (UMBC Retrievers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
UMBC Retrievers wins
7
Vermont wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ATowson42-68
12/11/26HMorgan State85-70
09/11/26HMcDaniel91-61
06/11/26AMarist80-88
02/11/26AGeorge Mason54-82
17/03/26AHoward83-86
14/03/26HVermont74-59
10/03/26HUMass Lowell91-69
07/03/26HNew Hampshire Wildcats84-69
03/03/26ANJIT91-52
Vermontlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HPlattsburgh104-59
08/11/26HQuinnipiac76-79
06/11/26AFairfield79-67
03/11/26AIona55-56
14/03/26AUMBC Retrievers59-74
10/03/26HNJIT63-54
07/03/26HBryant University77-57
04/03/26HAlbany Great Danes69-56
27/02/26HUMass Lowell66-64
22/02/26ANJIT70-64

📊 11. Overall Statistics

UMBC Retrievers
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL40%
HomeWW100%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %40%100%0%
Points / game70.488.058.7
Allowed / game73.865.579.3
Point differential-3.4+22.5-20.7
Avg total144.2153.5138.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Vermont
NCAA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLW50%
HomeLW50%
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422
Win %50%50%50%
Points / game78.590.067.0
Allowed / game65.269.061.5
Point differential+13.2+21.0+5.5
Avg total143.8159.0128.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (2)0% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

America East conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 UMass Lowell43175%79.262.8+16.5
2 Binghamton53260%67.667.4+0.2
3 Vermont42250%78.565.2+13.2
4 UMBC Retrievers52340%70.473.8-3.4
5 Maine Black Bears51420%64.272.0-7.8
6 Bryant University51420%60.271.8-11.6
7 NJIT61517%55.777.3-21.7
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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