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Valur vs Keflavik Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 11 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 79-78
16-18 17-22 22-12 24-26
Position#4
Record15-9
FormLWLLW
Points / game89.8
Allowed / game89.1
Valur 🏆
Iceland
vs
Position#5
Record13-11
FormLLWWL
Points / game93.5
Allowed / game90.8
IcelandPremier leaguePremier League - Quarter-finals· Origo-hollin Hlidarenda
Other2025-26
Meetings · Valur v Keflavik
18 Mar 2027
VALU v KEFL
upcoming
19 Apr 2026
VALU90
KEFL76
11 Apr 2026
VALU79
KEFL78
02 Apr 2026
VALU75
KEFL78
12 Jan 2026
VALU93
KEFL94
11 Dec 2025
VALU111
KEFL91
24 Oct 2024
VALU104
KEFL80
18 Jan 2024
VALU105
KEFL82
02 Dec 2022
VALU75
KEFL100
05 Mar 2022
VALU88
KEFL74
12 Feb 2021
VALU85
KEFL72
29 Jan 2020
VALU68
KEFL96
14 Dec 2018
VALU77
KEFL86
04 Jan 2018
VALU84
KEFL87
31 Oct 2013
VALU76
KEFL94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Valur winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Keflavik winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

🔥 Form · Valur
5.0out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 89.1
82.0▼ 7.1
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 88.3
89.6▲ 1.3
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 54%
53%▼ 1%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 20.1
18.4▼ 1.7
🔥 Form · Keflavik
5.4out of 10 · 5 = normal010
Around their normal
🏀
Attack
Points scored per game
Last 5 v their normal 94.4
87.2▼ 7.2
🛡️
Defence
Points allowed per game
Last 5 v their normal 90.9
87.8▼ 3.1
🎯
Accuracy
True shooting %
Last 5 v their normal 58%
54%▼ 4%
🤝
Playmaking
Assists per game
Last 5 v their normal 20.3
18.2▼ 2.1
ValurIcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Thorl
#11
W
80-71 OT
80
71
+9
H22/01
Premier league
Grindavik
#1
L
67-78
67
78
-11
A29/01
Premier league
Akranes IA
#12
W
102-85
102
85
+17
H12/02
Premier league
Alftanes
#8
W
108-87
108
87
+21
A20/02
Premier league
KR Basket
#6
W
92-90 OT
92
90
+2
H07/03
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
L
78-110
78
110
-32
A12/03
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
88-85
88
85
+3
A19/03
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#7
L
82-93
82
93
-11
H26/03
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
L
75-78
75
78
-3
H02/04
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
87-82
87
82
+5
A07/04
Premier league
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-19
12-16
23-13
12-17
16-23
15-19
18-19
18-17
21-17
24-28
26-17
31-23
26-23
23-18
34-24
25-22
19-18
26-23
25-25
14-18
19-25
15-35
18-29
26-21
16-20
31-16
20-26
21-23
17-24
25-23
20-24
20-22
21-14
21-18
19-25
14-21
33-26
15-13
20-24
19-19
171.8Avg total
85.9Scored
85.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)89.889.1178.9+0.662%
Season at home (12)88.786.6175.2+2.158%
Season away (12)90.891.7182.5-0.867%
Last 10 (10)85.985.9171.8+0.060%
Last 5 (5)82.089.6171.6-7.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)84.792.2176.8-7.517%
vs Similar ◀ (17)88.487.4175.8+1.059%
vs Weaker (6)92.588.5181.0+4.083%
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KeflavikIcelandLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Thorl
#11
W
98-78
98
78
+20
A30/01
Premier league
Stjarnan
#2
L
107-110 OT
107
110
-3
H03/02
Icelandic Cup
Grindavik
#1
L
99-105
99
105
-6
H13/02
Premier league
Akranes IA
#12
L
96-97
96
97
-1
A19/02
Premier league
Alftanes
#8
W
106-96
106
96
+10
A06/03
Premier league
KR Basket
#6
L
105-107
105
107
-2
A12/03
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
85-88
85
88
-3
H19/03
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
W
86-82
86
82
+4
A26/03
Premier league
Valur
#4
W
78-75
78
75
+3
A02/04
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
82-87
82
87
-5
H07/04
Premier league
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-29
18-22
23-12
33-15
24-27
21-20
29-27
21-21
24-23
18-36
30-26
27-20
27-31
28-14
22-29
19-23
17-20
28-16
39-33
22-27
27-26
19-27
25-33
34-21
20-16
16-31
26-20
23-21
27-21
15-27
22-18
22-16
14-21
18-21
25-19
21-14
26-33
13-15
24-20
19-19
186.7Avg total
94.2Scored
92.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)93.590.8184.3+2.854%
Season at home (12)93.485.8179.2+7.767%
Season away (12)93.795.8189.5-2.242%
Last 10 (10)94.292.5186.7+1.740%
Last 5 (5)87.287.8175.0-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)89.194.1183.3-5.029%
vs Similar ◀ (14)94.594.0188.5+0.550%
vs Weaker (8)94.287.1181.4+7.162%
This opponent (Valur) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: -0.3-0.3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: -0.3-0.3Q4: +4.4+4.4
ValurKeflavik
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
ValurLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Thorl
#11
L
30-35
30
35
-5
H22/01
Premier league
Grindavik
#1
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A29/01
Premier league
Akranes IA
#12
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H12/02
Premier league
Alftanes
#8
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A20/02
Premier league
KR Basket
#6
W
45-41
45
41
+4
H07/03
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
L
34-60
34
60
-26
A12/03
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
47-36
47
36
+11
A19/03
Premier league
IR Reykjavik
#7
L
42-47
42
47
-5
H26/03
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
42-32
42
32
+10
H02/04
Premier league
Keflavik
#5
W
48-39
48
39
+9
A07/04
Premier league
83.1Avg total
41.3Scored
41.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.344.587.8-1.247%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.344.387.6-1.044%-
Last 30 away (14)43.344.888.1-1.550%-
Last 10 (10)41.341.883.1-0.550%-
Last 5 (5)42.642.885.4-0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)38.849.087.8-10.217%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)45.543.488.9+2.159%-
vs Weaker (6)41.043.384.3-2.333%-
This opponent (Keflavik) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
KeflavikLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Thorl
#11
L
42-51
42
51
-9
A30/01
Premier league
Stjarnan
#2
L
45-47
45
47
-2
H03/02
Icelandic Cup
Grindavik
#1
L
42-59
42
59
-17
H13/02
Premier league
Akranes IA
#12
W
55-45
55
45
+10
A19/02
Premier league
Alftanes
#8
W
45-36
45
36
+9
A06/03
Premier league
KR Basket
#6
L
46-53
46
53
-7
A12/03
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
36-47
36
47
-11
H19/03
Premier league
Njardvik
#9
L
42-48
42
48
-6
A26/03
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A02/04
Premier league
Valur
#4
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H07/04
Premier league
90.0Avg total
42.4Scored
47.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.747.393.0-1.640%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.444.990.3+0.650%-
Last 30 away (16)46.049.495.4-3.431%-
Last 10 (10)42.447.690.0-5.220%-
Last 5 (5)39.047.686.6-8.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)46.349.495.7-3.143%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)43.947.691.4-3.721%-
vs Weaker (8)48.146.494.5+1.862%-
This opponent (Valur) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Valurtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Valur: 85.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.2 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.1 points a game
47%
36%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.823.8
54.3%
54.6%47.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.19.0
29.9%
34.0%27.0
🏀 Free throws16.111.2
69.6%
74.2%11.2
They take 73.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Keflaviktheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Keflavik: 94.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.5 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.1 points a game
47%
36%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.322.6
52.2%
54.6%45.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.79.5
33.1%
34.0%28.5
🏀 Free throws24.420.5
84.0%
74.2%20.5
They take 72.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 45%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Valur
WLLWLWWWLW
Keflavik
LWWLLWLLLW
#4
League position
#5
+0.0
Net rating
+1.9
93.1
Offensive rating
100.5
93.1
Defensive rating
98.6
50.5%
Effective FG%
51.2%
50.0%
Opp. effective FG%
53.9%
12.2%
Turnover %
12.2%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.34
29.9%
3-point %
33.1%
61.3%
Assist %
64.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence93.1 · 100.5Defence93.1 · 98.6Shooting50.5% · 51.2%3-point %29.9% · 33.1%Ball care12.2% · 12.2%Free throws0.22 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Valur   ■ Keflavik
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Valur wins
3
Keflavik wins
DateGameScore
07/04/26Keflavik v Valur82-87
02/04/26Valur v Keflavik75-78
19/03/26Keflavik v Valur85-88
12/01/26Valur v Keflavik93-94
11/12/25Valur v Keflavik111-91
19/03/25Keflavik v Valur67-91
24/01/25Keflavik v Valur70-81
24/10/24Valur v Keflavik104-80
18/01/24Valur v Keflavik105-82
19/10/23Keflavik v Valur87-86
Valurlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/04/26AKeflavik87-82
02/04/26HKeflavik75-78
26/03/26HIR Reykjavik82-93
19/03/26AKeflavik88-85
12/03/26ANjardvik78-110
07/03/26HKR Basket92-90 OT
20/02/26AAlftanes108-87
12/02/26HAkranes IA102-85
29/01/26AGrindavik67-78
22/01/26HThorl80-71 OT
Keflaviklast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/04/26HValur82-87
02/04/26AValur78-75
26/03/26ANjardvik86-82
19/03/26HValur85-88
12/03/26AKR Basket105-107
06/03/26AAlftanes106-96
19/02/26AAkranes IA96-97
13/02/26HGrindavik99-105
03/02/26HStjarnan107-110 OT
30/01/26AThorl98-78

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Valur
Premier league 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW62%
HomeWWWLL58%
AwayLWLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %62%58%67%
Points / game89.888.790.8
Allowed / game89.186.691.7
Point differential+0.6+2.1-0.8
Avg total178.9175.2182.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%33%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)25% (4)83% (6)
Overtime %17%17%17%
Keflavik
Premier league 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL54%
HomeLWLLL67%
AwayLWLWW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %54%67%42%
Points / game93.593.493.7
Allowed / game90.885.895.8
Point differential+2.8+7.7-2.2
Avg total184.3179.2189.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)33% (3)40% (5)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Tindastoll2520580%103.391.8+11.6
2 Grindavik2520580%93.389.1+4.2
3 Stjarnan2517868%103.993.8+10.0
4 Valur2415962%89.889.1+0.6
5 Keflavik24131154%93.590.8+2.8
6 KR Basket25131252%98.095.5+2.6
7 IR Reykjavik25111444%91.393.4-2.1
8 Alftanes2281436%92.993.2-0.4
9 Njardvik2591636%94.595.9-1.4
10 Armann2271532%87.999.6-11.7
11 Thorl2261627%89.096.6-7.5
12 Akranes IA2241818%88.6100.9-12.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Valur1617222479
Keflavik1822122678
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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