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AEK Athens vs PAOK Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 11 May 2021
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 102-89
19-25 33-21 21-26 29-17
Position#3
Record15-8
FormLWLLL
Points / game82.5
Allowed / game76.1
vs
Position#5
Record13-10
FormWWWLW
Points / game79.1
Allowed / game78.9
GreeceBasket LeagueBasket League - Quarter-finals
Domestic2020-21
Meetings · AEK Athens v PAOK
16 Jan 2027
AAT v PAK
upcoming
09 Nov 2025
AAT76
PAK78
27 Apr 2025
AAT89
PAK85
05 Apr 2025
AAT89
PAK76
19 Jan 2025
AAT91
PAK68
21 Apr 2024
AAT99
PAK91
25 Nov 2023
AAT90
PAK70
27 Dec 2022
AAT71
PAK83
22 Jan 2022
AAT72
PAK67
16 May 2021
AAT87
PAK81
11 May 2021
AAT102
PAK89
27 Jan 2021
AAT76
PAK56
05 Dec 2020
AAT85
PAK84
28 Mar 2020
AAT v PAK
upcoming
13 Mar 2019
AAT62
PAK63
13 Oct 2018
AAT91
PAK71
19 May 2018
AAT88
PAK93
11 Apr 2018
AAT72
PAK81
25 Feb 2017
AAT77
PAK71
06 May 2015
AAT85
PAK93
13 Feb 2011
AAT73
PAK80
17 Apr 2010
AAT73
PAK90
04 Apr 2009
AAT93
PAK85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEK Athens winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
PAOK winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AEK AthensGreeceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAthens
Date
Competition
Iraklis
#10
W
100-97 OT
100
97
+3
no box
H20/03
Basket League
Strasbourg
#15
L
73-91
73
91
-18
59avg 72
A23/03
Champions League
Nizhny Novgorod
#8
L
60-88
60
88
-28
no box
A25/03
Champions League
Aris
#9
W
73-68
73
68
+5
no box
A27/03
Basket League
Turk Telekom
#13
L
66-78
66
78
-12
54avg 72
A31/03
Champions League
Lavrio
#2
L
94-97 OT
94
97
-3
no box
H03/04
Basket League
Nizhny Novgorod
#8
W
79-78
79
78
+1
68avg 72
H07/04
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#7
L
72-79
72
79
-7
67avg 72
A10/04
Basket League
Promitheas
#4
L
78-80
78
80
-2
68avg 72
A14/04
Basket League
Panathinaikos
#1
L
95-104
95
104
-9
86avg 72
H28/04
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-17
15-26
27-17
22-25
18-31
27-21
13-21
15-18
15-25
15-21
12-25
18-17
18-15
16-12
23-22
16-19
17-18
19-21
10-16
20-23
19-15
22-21
21-28
20-18
18-14
16-20
16-25
29-19
11-30
20-11
26-17
15-21
18-15
17-18
23-23
20-24
20-28
24-22
26-36
25-18
165.0Avg total
79.0Scored
86.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)82.576.1158.6+6.465%
Season at home (12)87.978.0165.9+9.975%
Season away (11)76.674.0150.6+2.655%
Last 10 (10)79.086.0165.0-7.030%
Last 5 (5)83.687.6171.2-4.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)77.287.5164.8-10.225%
vs Similar (11)76.680.5157.1-3.827%
vs Weaker ◀ (14)84.173.6157.7+10.486%
This opponent (PAOK) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PAOKGreeceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPAOK
Date
Competition
Promitheas
#6
L
69-76 OT
69
76
-7
no box
H12/02
Greek Cup
Larisa
#11
W
91-88 OT
91
88
+3
no box
A28/02
Basket League
Promitheas
#4
W
81-78
81
78
+3
76avg 72
H06/03
Basket League
AEK Athens
#3
L
85-87 OT
85
87
-2
no box
H13/03
Basket League
Aris
#9
W
77-71
77
71
+6
74avg 72
A20/03
Basket League
Kolossos Rhodes
#7
W
82-74
82
74
+8
75avg 72
H28/03
Basket League
Ionikos
#8
W
84-83
84
83
+1
75avg 72
A03/04
Basket League
Peristeri
#6
W
85-66
85
66
+19
77avg 72
H11/04
Basket League
Panathinaikos
#1
L
68-74
68
74
-6
62avg 72
H18/04
Basket League
Harilaos Trikoupis
#12
W
84-69
84
69
+15
78avg 72
A28/04
Basket League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
11-18
18-17
11-11
20-14
14-26
24-17
18-14
22-21
13-18
21-9
22-24
25-27
17-19
19-18
16-20
22-17
26-18
11-19
14-24
26-10
22-19
18-19
23-18
19-18
24-23
12-22
27-21
21-17
22-15
20-19
28-17
15-15
12-26
17-21
18-16
21-11
22-19
25-17
19-12
18-21
157.2Avg total
80.6Scored
76.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (23)79.178.9158.0+0.357%
Season at home (11)82.876.7159.5+6.173%
Season away (12)75.880.8156.6-5.142%
Last 10 (10)80.676.6157.2+4.070%
Last 5 (5)80.673.2153.8+7.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)71.382.2153.5-10.80%
vs Similar (12)78.275.8154.0+2.358%
vs Weaker (10)83.079.8162.8+3.270%
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.3-3.3Q1: -1.8-1.8Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +3.8+3.8
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.3-3.3Q1: -1.8-1.8Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: -3.3-3.3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +3.8+3.8
AEK AthensPAOK
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AEK AthensLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Iraklis
#10
L
36-43
36
43
-7
H20/03
Basket League
Strasbourg
#15
L
45-52
45
52
-7
A23/03
Champions League
Nizhny Novgorod
#8
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A25/03
Champions League
Aris
#9
W
34-27
34
27
+7
A27/03
Basket League
Turk Telekom
#13
L
36-39
36
39
-3
A31/03
Champions League
Lavrio
#2
W
41-36
41
36
+5
H03/04
Basket League
Nizhny Novgorod
#8
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H07/04
Champions League
Kolossos Rhodes
#7
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A10/04
Basket League
Promitheas
#4
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A14/04
Basket League
Panathinaikos
#1
L
44-50
44
50
-6
H28/04
Basket League
76.7Avg total
36.6Scored
40.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.737.977.6+1.860%-
Last 30 at home (14)41.736.978.6+4.871%-
Last 30 away (16)38.038.876.8-0.850%-
Last 10 (10)36.640.176.7-3.530%-
Last 5 (5)37.038.875.8-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)36.243.279.5-7.00%-
vs Similar (11)38.037.175.1+0.964%-
vs Weaker ◀ (14)42.337.279.5+5.171%-
This opponent (PAOK) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PAOKLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Promitheas
#6
L
29-35
29
35
-6
H12/02
Greek Cup
Larisa
#11
L
38-43
38
43
-5
A28/02
Basket League
Promitheas
#4
W
34-27
34
27
+7
H06/03
Basket League
AEK Athens
#3
L
36-37
36
37
-1
H13/03
Basket League
Aris
#9
D
37-37
37
37
+0
A20/03
Basket League
Kolossos Rhodes
#7
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H28/03
Basket League
Ionikos
#8
L
36-45
36
45
-9
A03/04
Basket League
Peristeri
#6
W
42-34
42
34
+8
H11/04
Basket League
Panathinaikos
#1
L
29-47
29
47
-18
H18/04
Basket League
Harilaos Trikoupis
#12
W
47-36
47
36
+11
A28/04
Basket League
74.7Avg total
36.8Scored
37.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)38.340.578.8-2.238%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.140.180.2-0.160%-
Last 30 away (14)36.440.977.3-4.414%-
Last 10 (10)36.837.974.7-1.140%-
Last 5 (5)38.840.078.8-1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)33.344.377.7-11.00%-
vs Similar (12)39.038.077.0+1.050%-
vs Weaker (10)41.742.283.9-0.550%-
This opponent (AEK Athens) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AEK Athenstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Athens: 73.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.1 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.319.0
49.6%
51.8%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.47.5
36.8%
35.6%22.5
🏀 Free throws19.613.2
67.3%
74.2%13.2
They take 58.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 20.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
PAOKtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

PAOK: 76.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.1 points a game
48%
33%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.618.5
50.5%
51.8%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.58.3
38.6%
35.6%24.9
🏀 Free throws17.714.2
80.2%
74.2%14.2
They take 58.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 May 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AEK Athens
LLLWLLWLLW
PAOK
WLWWWWLWWL
#3
League position
#5
-7.7
Net rating
+3.3
105.2
Offensive rating
104.3
112.9
Defensive rating
101.0
51.5%
Effective FG%
53.3%
52.2%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
17.9%
Turnover %
20.6%
28.7%
Off. rebound %
25.6%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.30
36.8%
3-point %
38.6%
51.3%
Assist %
47.4%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence105.2 · 104.3Defence112.9 · 101.0Shooting51.5% · 53.3%3-point %36.8% · 38.6%Ball care17.9% · 20.6%Off. rebounds28.7% · 25.6%Free throws0.33 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ AEK Athens   ■ PAOK
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
AEK Athens wins
4
PAOK wins
DateGameScore
13/03/21PAOK v AEK Athens85-87 OT
27/01/21AEK Athens v PAOK76-56
05/12/20AEK Athens v PAOK85-84
07/12/19PAOK v AEK Athens67-71
13/03/19AEK Athens v PAOK62-63
05/03/19PAOK v AEK Athens75-84
26/01/19PAOK v AEK Athens88-79
03/11/18PAOK v AEK Athens82-80
13/10/18AEK Athens v PAOK91-71
19/05/18AEK Athens v PAOK88-93
AEK Athenslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/04/21HPanathinaikos95-104
14/04/21APromitheas78-80
10/04/21AKolossos Rhodes72-79
07/04/21HNizhny Novgorod79-78
03/04/21HLavrio94-97 OT
31/03/21ATurk Telekom66-78
27/03/21AAris73-68
25/03/21ANizhny Novgorod60-88
23/03/21AStrasbourg73-91
20/03/21HIraklis100-97 OT
PAOKlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/04/21AHarilaos Trikoupis84-69
18/04/21HPanathinaikos68-74
11/04/21HPeristeri85-66
03/04/21AIonikos84-83
28/03/21HKolossos Rhodes82-74
20/03/21AAris77-71
13/03/21HAEK Athens85-87 OT
06/03/21HPromitheas81-78
28/02/21ALarisa91-88 OT
12/02/21HPromitheas69-76 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEK Athens
Basket League 2020-21
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL65%
HomeWWWLL75%
AwayLWWLL55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231211
Win %65%75%55%
Points / game82.587.976.6
Allowed / game76.178.074.0
Point differential+6.4+9.9+2.6
Avg total158.6165.9150.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%50%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)67% (3)50% (6)
Overtime %13%17%9%
PAOK
Basket League 2020-21
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW57%
HomeWLWWL73%
AwayLWWWW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games231112
Win %57%73%42%
Points / game79.182.875.8
Allowed / game78.976.780.8
Point differential+0.3+6.1-5.1
Avg total158.0159.5156.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%27%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)50% (4)60% (5)
Overtime %9%9%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos2220291%88.671.7+16.9
2 Lavrio2318578%82.577.8+4.7
3 Promitheas2216673%80.476.2+4.1
4 AEK Athens2315865%82.576.1+6.4
5 PAOK23131057%79.178.9+0.3
6 Peristeri23121152%73.874.4-0.7
7 Ionikos2281436%77.281.3-4.1
8 Kolossos Rhodes2381535%77.777.8-0.1
9 Aris2271532%73.777.5-3.7
10 Iraklis2271532%73.580.4-6.9
11 Larisa2361726%74.481.2-6.8
12 Harilaos Trikoupis2251723%72.582.7-10.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
AEK Athens19332129102
PAOK2521261789
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