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AEK Larnaca vs AEL Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 02 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 17:00
Scheduled
Position#1
Record5-0
FormWWLWL
Points / game89.6
Allowed / game69.6
AEK Larnaca
Cyprus
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.8/10
Above normal
3.8/10
Below normal
AEL
Cyprus
Position#3
Record4-1
FormWWWWL
Points / game77.8
Allowed / game70.0
CyprusDivision ARound 15· Kition Athletic Center
Other2026-27
Meetings · AEK Larnaca v AEL
02 Jan 2027
ALA v AEL
upcoming
08 Apr 2026
ALA78
AEL71
11 Oct 2025
ALA88
AEL72
01 Dec 2024
ALA89
AEL70
20 Mar 2024
ALA93
AEL81
21 Dec 2022
ALA118
AEL103
05 Mar 2022
ALA84
AEL65
23 Dec 2020
ALA87
AEL58
25 Oct 2019
ALA84
AEL77
20 Mar 2019
ALA93
AEL57
03 Nov 2018
ALA82
AEL76
13 Feb 2015
ALA20
AEL0
06 Dec 2014
ALA20
AEL0
24 Jan 2014
ALA100
AEL52
06 Dec 2013
ALA93
AEL48
25 Jan 2013
ALA86
AEL38
23 Dec 2012
ALA81
AEL67
27 Nov 2011
ALA88
AEL82
22 Jan 2011
ALA92
AEL84
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AEK Larnaca win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
AEL win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AEK LarnacaCyprusLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormLarnaca
Date
Competition
Apollon
#7
W
90-56
90
56
+34
92avg 80
A11/10
Division A
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
80-94
80
94
-14
69avg 80
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
W
83-79
83
79
+4
84avg 80
H18/10
Division A
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
99-93
99
93
+6
100avg 80
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#4
W
85-74
85
74
+11
65avg 80
A24/10
Division A
MZT Skopje
#47
W
85-69
85
69
+16
78avg 80
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
87-61
87
61
+26
94avg 80
H31/10
Division A
Iraklis
#11
L
64-81
64
81
-17
no box
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
W
103-78
103
78
+25
no box
A08/11
Division A
Wurzburg
#13
L
76-78
76
78
-2
no box
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-14
23-12
18-13
23-17
14-29
20-19
31-17
15-29
30-18
19-20
21-23
13-18
32-21
25-30
22-20
20-22
18-16
30-22
15-21
22-15
23-20
26-22
22-11
14-16
27-10
17-16
30-14
13-21
23-21
11-27
11-14
19-19
29-10
25-18
21-33
28-17
24-12
22-23
17-26
13-17
161.5Avg total
85.2Scored
76.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)89.669.6159.2+20.0100%
Season at home (2)85.070.0155.0+15.0100%
Season away (3)92.769.3162.0+23.3100%
Last 10 (10)85.276.3161.5+8.970%
Last 5 (5)83.073.4156.4+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.279.5152.8-6.225%
vs Similar (7)78.076.6154.6+1.457%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)88.276.0164.2+12.289%
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AELCyprusLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAEL
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#2
L
60-92
60
92
-32
45avg 73
A02/05
Division A
Spartak Pleven
#3
W
79-61
79
61
+18
79avg 73
A06/10
ENBL
Apoel BC
#5
L
73-80
73
80
-7
69avg 73
A12/10
Division A
Paralimni
#4
W
89-77
89
77
+12
86avg 73
H17/10
Division A
Fyllingen
#16
W
76-58
76
58
+18
74avg 73
H21/10
ENBL
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
74-70
74
70
+4
72avg 73
A26/10
Division A
Morphou
#8
W
71-49
71
49
+22
68avg 73
H30/10
Division A
Tal Tech
#11
W
74-67
74
67
+7
no box
H03/11
ENBL
Anorthosis
#9
W
82-74
82
74
+8
no box
A07/11
Division A
Donar Groningen
#8
L
81-83
81
83
-2
no box
A11/11
ENBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-22
16-30
11-20
13-20
22-9
19-15
18-21
20-16
25-19
17-24
17-14
14-23
20-22
22-22
24-20
23-13
20-11
14-17
20-14
22-16
23-14
18-10
21-24
12-22
20-11
22-15
19-13
10-10
23-16
16-16
19-21
16-14
24-19
19-22
23-16
16-17
16-22
27-28
21-14
17-19
147.0Avg total
75.9Scored
71.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)77.870.0147.8+7.880%
Season at home (2)80.063.0143.0+17.0100%
Season away (3)76.374.7151.0+1.767%
Last 10 (10)75.971.1147.0+4.870%
Last 5 (5)76.468.6145.0+7.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)70.684.0154.6-13.422%
vs Similar (9)87.379.9167.2+7.489%
vs Weaker (12)80.169.8149.8+10.383%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +7.5+7.5Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -0.7-0.7
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +7.5+7.5Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +0.9+0.9Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +1.6+1.6Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -0.7-0.7
AEK LarnacaAEL
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AEK LarnacaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Apollon
#7
W
49-26
49
26
+23
A11/10
Division A
Dziki Warszawa
#8
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A14/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Apoel BC
#5
W
49-38
49
38
+11
H18/10
Division A
Tartu Ulikool
#37
W
57-51
57
51
+6
H21/10
FIBA Europe Cup
Paralimni
#4
W
48-38
48
38
+10
A24/10
Division A
MZT Skopje
#47
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A27/10
FIBA Europe Cup
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
44-26
44
26
+18
H31/10
Division A
Iraklis
#11
L
34-48
34
48
-14
A04/11
FIBA Europe Cup
Morphou
#8
W
54-28
54
28
+26
A08/11
Division A
Wurzburg
#13
W
46-35
46
35
+11
A11/11
FIBA Europe Cup
84.4Avg total
46.4Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.940.184.0+3.850%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.739.485.1+6.457%-
Last 30 away (16)42.340.783.0+1.644%-
Last 10 (10)46.438.084.4+8.480%-
Last 5 (5)45.435.881.2+9.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)38.542.881.2-4.225%-
vs Similar (7)40.339.179.4+1.129%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)46.939.686.5+7.367%-
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AELLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Keravnos
#2
L
36-52
36
52
-16
A02/05
Division A
Spartak Pleven
#3
W
41-24
41
24
+17
A06/10
ENBL
Apoel BC
#5
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A12/10
Division A
Paralimni
#4
L
42-44
42
44
-2
H17/10
Division A
Fyllingen
#16
W
34-28
34
28
+6
H21/10
ENBL
ETHA Engomi
#6
W
41-24
41
24
+17
A26/10
Division A
Morphou
#8
W
42-26
42
26
+16
H30/10
Division A
Tal Tech
#11
W
39-32
39
32
+7
H03/11
ENBL
Anorthosis
#9
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A07/11
Division A
Donar Groningen
#8
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A11/11
ENBL
76.7Avg total
40.3Scored
36.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.837.277.0+2.567%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.535.577.0+5.985%-
Last 30 away (17)38.538.577.0-0.153%-
Last 10 (10)40.336.476.7+3.960%-
Last 5 (5)41.634.676.2+7.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)35.940.676.4-4.744%-
vs Similar (9)41.838.780.4+3.167%-
vs Weaker (12)41.233.774.8+7.583%-
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
AEK Larnacatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEK Larnaca: 83.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.2 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 73.3 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.722.7
51.9%
52.0%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.07.4
35.2%
34.4%22.2
🏀 Free throws21.016.1
76.7%
72.9%16.1
They take 64.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
AELtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

AEL: 75.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers19.5 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 73.3 points a game
49%
34%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.220.3
54.6%
52.0%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.66.5
28.8%
34.4%19.5
🏀 Free throws21.815.4
70.6%
72.9%15.4
They take 59.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
AEK Larnaca
LWLWWWWWLW
AEL
LWWWWWWLWL
#1
League position
#3
+10.3
Net rating
+2.4
99.1
Offensive rating
92.1
88.8
Defensive rating
89.7
52.2%
Effective FG%
50.3%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
48.4%
12.4%
Turnover %
14.3%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.36
35.2%
3-point %
28.8%
66.8%
Assist %
62.3%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 92.1Defence88.8 · 89.7Shooting52.2% · 50.3%3-point %35.2% · 28.8%Ball care12.4% · 14.3%Free throws0.32 · 0.36Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ AEK Larnaca   ■ AEL
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
AEK Larnaca wins
1
AEL wins
DateGameScore
08/04/26AEK Larnaca v AEL78-71
19/12/25AEL v AEK Larnaca62-87
11/10/25AEK Larnaca v AEL88-72
12/03/25AEL v AEK Larnaca76-57
18/01/25AEL v AEK Larnaca66-80
01/12/24AEK Larnaca v AEL89-70
05/04/24AEL v AEK Larnaca63-99
20/03/24AEK Larnaca v AEL93-81
09/10/23AEL v AEK Larnaca94-96 OT
05/03/23AEL v AEK Larnaca76-91
AEK Larnacalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AWurzburg76-78
08/11/26AMorphou103-78
04/11/26AIraklis64-81
31/10/26HETHA Engomi87-61
27/10/26AMZT Skopje85-69
24/10/26AParalimni85-74
21/10/26HTartu Ulikool99-93
18/10/26HApoel BC83-79
14/10/26ADziki Warszawa80-94
11/10/26AApollon90-56
AELlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26ADonar Groningen81-83
07/11/26AAnorthosis82-74
03/11/26HTal Tech74-67
30/10/26HMorphou71-49
26/10/26AETHA Engomi74-70
21/10/26HFyllingen76-58
17/10/26HParalimni89-77
12/10/26AApoel BC73-80
06/10/26ASpartak Pleven79-61
02/05/26AKeravnos60-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

AEK Larnaca
Division A 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game89.685.092.7
Allowed / game69.670.069.3
Point differential+20.0+15.0+23.3
Avg total159.2155.0162.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+80%50%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
AEL
Division A 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW80%
HomeWW100%
AwayLWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %80%100%67%
Points / game77.880.076.3
Allowed / game70.063.074.7
Point differential+7.8+17.0+1.7
Avg total147.8143.0151.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 AEK Larnaca550100%89.669.6+20.0
2 Keravnos550100%90.075.2+14.8
3 AEL54180%77.870.0+7.8
4 Paralimni64267%84.779.2+5.5
5 Apoel BC63350%77.375.2+2.2
6 ETHA Engomi63350%69.772.3-2.7
7 Apollon62433%70.079.3-9.3
8 Morphou51420%70.083.0-13.0
9 Anorthosis5050%75.082.2-7.2
10 Achilleas K.5050%74.491.6-17.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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