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Arkansas State vs Texas State Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 83-82
43-37 40-45
Position#98
Record11-5
FormWWWLW
Points / game83.3
Allowed / game77.8
Arkansas State 🏆
USA
vs
Texas State
USA
Position#125
Record9-8
FormLWLWL
Points / game74.5
Allowed / game71.5
USANCAA
Other2025-26
Meetings · Arkansas State v Texas State
10 Jan 2026
ARKA83
TEXA82
25 Jan 2025
ARKA80
TEXA65
11 Jan 2024
ARKA85
TEXA82
12 Jan 2023
ARKA58
TEXA61
22 Jan 2022
ARKA67
TEXA60
22 Feb 2021
ARKA52
TEXA57
04 Jan 2020
ARKA67
TEXA70
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Arkansas State winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Texas State winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Arkansas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jacksonville State
#228
W
74-63
74
63
+11
H25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
85-80 OT
85
80
+5
H28/11
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
83-63
83
63
+20
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
90-78
90
78
+12
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
76-77
76
77
-1
A13/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
89-70
89
70
+19
A18/12
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
93-86
93
86
+7
A20/12
NCAA
Arkansas Tech
#580
W
107-63
107
63
+44
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
74-78
74
78
-4
H03/01
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
86-74
86
74
+12
H08/01
NCAA
1H
2H
38-32
36-31
39-35
31-35
39-21
44-42
46-39
44-39
35-33
41-44
41-32
48-38
39-32
54-54
51-25
56-38
34-39
40-39
45-32
41-42
158.9Avg total
85.7Scored
73.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (16)83.377.8161.1+5.669%
Season at home (7)86.369.7156.0+16.686%
Season away (9)81.084.0165.0-3.056%
Last 10 (10)85.773.2158.9+12.580%
Last 5 (5)89.874.2164.0+15.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)74.085.0159.0-11.033%
vs Similar ◀ (10)75.774.2149.9+1.550%
vs Weaker (14)84.174.8158.9+9.471%
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
93-41
93
41
+52
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
L
52-66
52
66
-14
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
L
74-78 OT
74
78
-4
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
W
86-83
86
83
+3
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
70-89
70
89
-19
H18/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
W
67-65
67
65
+2
H20/12
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
80-100
80
100
-20
A31/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
84-79
84
79
+5
A03/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
70-80 OT
70
80
-10
A09/01
NCAA
1H
2H
51-27
42-14
33-33
19-33
34-34
32-32
28-40
44-37
38-38
48-45
32-41
38-48
25-39
42-26
33-45
47-55
46-40
38-39
28-29
37-36
150.6Avg total
74.8Scored
75.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)74.571.5146.0+2.953%
Season at home (10)78.965.2144.1+13.780%
Season away (7)68.180.6148.7-12.414%
Last 10 (10)74.875.8150.6-1.040%
Last 5 (5)74.282.6156.8-8.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)69.080.7149.7-11.717%
vs Similar ◀ (10)74.381.6155.9-7.330%
vs Weaker (14)76.764.4141.1+12.471%
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Halves

Half by half

-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +8.7+8.71st half: -1.8-1.82nd half2nd half: +3.3+3.32nd half: +2.2+2.2
-11-5+0+5+111st half1st half: +8.7+8.71st half: -1.8-1.82nd half2nd half: +3.3+3.32nd half: +2.2+2.2
Arkansas StateTexas State
Each team's average half over its last 10 games. Net is the half margin (above zero = the team wins that half on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the half means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by half · pick a half
Arkansas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Jacksonville State
#228
W
38-32
38
32
+6
H25/11
NCAA
North Dakota St
#30
W
39-35
39
35
+4
H28/11
NCAA
UT Arlington
#150
W
39-21
39
21
+18
H03/12
NCAA
UALR
#295
W
46-39
46
39
+7
A07/12
NCAA
Rice
#268
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A13/12
NCAA
Texas State
#125
W
41-32
41
32
+9
A18/12
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
W
39-32
39
32
+7
A20/12
NCAA
Arkansas Tech
#580
W
51-25
51
25
+26
H31/12
NCAA
James Madison
#169
L
34-39
34
39
-5
H03/01
NCAA
Troy
#84
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H08/01
NCAA
72.7Avg total
40.7Scored
32.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.234.473.6+4.873%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.531.272.7+10.485%-
Last 30 away (17)37.536.974.4+0.665%-
Last 10 (10)40.732.072.7+8.790%-
Last 5 (5)42.032.074.0+10.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)36.342.779.0-6.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)36.733.370.0+3.480%-
vs Weaker (14)39.634.474.0+5.371%-
This opponent (Texas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Texas StateLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Texas Lutheran
#676
W
51-27
51
27
+24
H25/11
NCAA
Seattle
#108
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A28/11
NCAA
Lehigh
#197
D
34-34
34
34
+0
H29/11
NCAA
Rice
#268
L
28-40
28
40
-12
A04/12
NCAA
Southern Univ.
#210
D
38-38
38
38
+0
H11/12
NCAA
Arkansas State
#98
L
32-41
32
41
-9
H18/12
NCAA
South Alabama
#120
L
25-39
25
39
-14
H20/12
NCAA
Troy
#84
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A31/12
NCAA
Louisiana Monroe
#369
W
46-40
46
40
+6
A03/01
NCAA
Southern Miss
#174
L
28-29
28
29
-1
A09/01
NCAA
71.4Avg total
34.8Scored
36.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)34.833.268.1+1.643%-
Last 30 at home (17)36.132.168.1+4.053%-
Last 30 away (13)33.234.868.0-1.531%-
Last 10 (10)34.836.671.4-1.820%-
Last 5 (5)32.838.871.6-6.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)33.036.569.5-3.517%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)31.037.368.3-6.30%-
vs Weaker (14)38.428.967.3+9.486%-
This opponent (Arkansas State) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Arkansas State wins
4
Texas State wins
DateGameScore
18/12/25Texas State v Arkansas State70-89
01/02/25Texas State v Arkansas State74-85
25/01/25Arkansas State v Texas State80-65
20/01/24Texas State v Arkansas State72-79
12/01/24Arkansas State v Texas State85-82
10/02/23Texas State v Arkansas State66-62
13/01/23Arkansas State v Texas State58-61
18/02/22Texas State v Arkansas State84-67
22/01/22Arkansas State v Texas State67-60
23/02/21Arkansas State v Texas State52-57
Arkansas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/26HTroy86-74
03/01/26HJames Madison74-78
31/12/25HArkansas Tech107-63
20/12/25ASouthern Miss93-86
18/12/25ATexas State89-70
13/12/25ARice76-77
07/12/25AUALR90-78
03/12/25HUT Arlington83-63
28/11/25HNorth Dakota St85-80 OT
25/11/25HJacksonville State74-63
Texas Statelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/01/26ASouthern Miss70-80 OT
03/01/26ALouisiana Monroe84-79
31/12/25ATroy80-100
20/12/25HSouth Alabama67-65
18/12/25HArkansas State70-89
11/12/25HSouthern Univ.86-83
04/12/25ARice72-77
29/11/25HLehigh74-78 OT
28/11/25ASeattle52-66
25/11/25HTexas Lutheran93-41

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Arkansas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW69%
HomeWWWLW86%
AwayLWLWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1679
Win %69%86%56%
Points / game83.386.381.0
Allowed / game77.869.784.0
Point differential+5.6+16.6-3.0
Avg total161.1156.0165.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+44%71%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)50% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %6%14%0%
Texas State
NCAA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL53%
HomeWLWLW80%
AwayLLLWL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17107
Win %53%80%14%
Points / game74.578.968.1
Allowed / game71.565.280.6
Point differential+2.9+13.7-12.4
Avg total146.0144.1148.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (5)67% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %12%10%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

Sun Belt conference
#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Arkansas State1611569%83.377.8+5.6
2 Marshall1611569%79.874.9+4.9
3 Georgia Southern1812667%83.779.8+3.9
4 Troy1711665%85.976.9+9.0
5 South Alabama1710759%73.368.1+5.2
6 Southern Miss1710759%76.373.1+3.2
7 Appalachian State1810856%72.466.7+5.7
8 Texas State179853%74.571.5+2.9
9 Coastal Carolina189950%72.471.8+0.6
10 James Madison168850%75.177.0-1.9
11 Old Dominion1751229%73.677.4-3.8
12 Georgia State1751229%69.674.9-5.3
13 Louisiana Lafayette1841422%60.670.3-9.7
14 Louisiana Monroe1731418%74.583.4-8.8
Conference membership from the data provider's standings; records are this season's games before tip-off (conference and non-conference). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

Team1H2HFinal
Arkansas State434083
Texas State374582
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