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Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 05 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 19:30
Scheduled
Position#4
Record7-3
FormWWWWW
Points / game91.0
Allowed / game88.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.7/10
Around normal
6.3/10
Above normal
Position#5
Record7-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game90.1
EuropeEuroleagueRound 29· Palau Blaugrana
European cup2026
Meetings · Barcelona v Real Madrid
05 Mar 2027
BAR v MAD
upcoming
27 Dec 2026
BAR v MAD
upcoming
22 Mar 2026
BAR76
MAD95
07 Nov 2025
BAR92
MAD101
06 Apr 2025
BAR89
MAD91
28 Nov 2024
BAR90
MAD97
02 Jun 2024
BAR92
MAD95
07 Apr 2024
BAR85
MAD79
03 Jan 2024
BAR83
MAD78
16 Sep 2023
BAR80
MAD90
18 Jun 2023
BAR86
MAD85
16 Jun 2023
BAR97
MAD88
19 May 2023
BAR66
MAD78
16 Apr 2023
BAR97
MAD82
13 Oct 2022
BAR75
MAD73
15 Jun 2022
BAR71
MAD69
13 Jun 2022
BAR75
MAD88
19 May 2022
BAR83
MAD86
10 Apr 2022
BAR108
MAD97
10 Dec 2021
BAR93
MAD80
12 Sep 2021
BAR83
MAD88
15 Jun 2021
BAR92
MAD73
11 Apr 2021
BAR85
MAD87
23 Oct 2020
BAR79
MAD72
01 Mar 2019
BAR77
MAD70
25 Nov 2018
BAR86
MAD69
11 Mar 2018
BAR94
MAD72
23 Feb 2018
BAR74
MAD101
18 Nov 2016
BAR63
MAD102
06 Nov 2016
BAR85
MAD75
17 Jun 2016
BAR70
MAD90
15 Jun 2016
BAR100
MAD99
24 Apr 2016
BAR86
MAD91
17 Mar 2016
BAR72
MAD65
24 Jun 2015
BAR85
MAD90
02 Apr 2015
BAR85
MAD80
22 Feb 2015
BAR71
MAD77
28 Dec 2014
BAR76
MAD68
26 Jun 2014
BAR83
MAD81
24 Jun 2014
BAR94
MAD79
16 May 2014
BAR62
MAD100
10 May 2014
BAR86
MAD75
16 Jun 2013
BAR73
MAD62
14 Jun 2013
BAR72
MAD84
10 May 2013
BAR67
MAD74
30 Dec 2012
BAR96
MAD89
23 Sep 2012
BAR84
MAD95
16 Jun 2012
BAR73
MAD69
08 Jun 2012
BAR69
MAD75
06 Jun 2012
BAR81
MAD80
03 May 2012
BAR86
MAD83
19 Feb 2012
BAR74
MAD91
30 Sep 2011
BAR74
MAD70
30 Dec 2010
BAR95
MAD75
24 Sep 2010
BAR89
MAD55
10 Apr 2010
BAR78
MAD73
25 Mar 2010
BAR63
MAD70
23 Mar 2010
BAR68
MAD61
21 Feb 2010
BAR80
MAD61
04 Mar 2009
BAR90
MAD79
20 Dec 2008
BAR87
MAD67
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Barcelona win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BarcelonaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBarcelona
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
90-87
90
87
+3
90avg 82
H13/10
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#2
L
100-105 OT
100
105
-5
92avg 82
H16/10
Euroleague
Joventut Badalona
#14
L
89-113
89
113
-24
86avg 82
A18/10
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
89-81
89
81
+8
83avg 82
A22/10
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#5
W
99-81
99
81
+18
96avg 82
H24/10
ACB
Bayern
#18
W
88-84
88
84
+4
82avg 82
A27/10
Euroleague
Valencia
#3
W
98-94
98
94
+4
91avg 82
H30/10
Euroleague
Unicaja
#10
W
92-89
92
89
+3
no box
A01/11
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
W
93-90
93
90
+3
no box
A05/11
Euroleague
Breogan
#7
W
99-91
99
91
+8
no box
H08/11
ACB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-24
17-18
27-22
23-23
30-26
17-31
19-20
26-15
26-23
19-26
23-33
21-31
23-21
21-19
27-24
18-17
24-21
24-19
24-17
27-24
21-17
20-25
23-19
24-23
30-25
14-17
25-26
29-26
25-29
20-25
27-18
20-17
19-21
27-25
27-18
20-26
23-20
16-20
30-30
30-21
185.2Avg total
93.7Scored
91.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)91.088.7179.7+2.370%
Season at home (5)91.691.2182.8+0.460%
Season away (5)90.486.2176.6+4.280%
Last 10 (10)93.791.5185.2+2.280%
Last 5 (5)94.089.6183.6+4.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)89.599.6189.1-10.138%
vs Similar (10)91.888.0179.8+3.860%
vs Weaker (12)95.786.8182.4+8.992%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 92
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 92
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 92
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 92
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 92
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 92
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 92
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
105-84
105
84
+21
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
38-20
18-21
26-18
23-25
193.3Avg total
106.1Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)98.590.1188.5+8.464%
Season at home (5)101.888.6190.4+13.280%
Season away (6)95.791.3187.0+4.350%
Last 10 (10)106.187.2193.3+18.990%
Last 5 (5)98.485.0183.4+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)92.389.4181.7+2.943%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)98.689.1187.7+9.561%
This opponent (Barcelona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: +5.9+5.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +2.5+2.5Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: +5.9+5.9
BarcelonaReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BarcelonaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H13/10
Euroleague
Olympiacos
#2
L
47-57
47
57
-10
H16/10
Euroleague
Joventut Badalona
#14
L
45-49
45
49
-4
A18/10
ACB
Olimpia Milano
#19
W
44-40
44
40
+4
A22/10
Euroleague
Basket Zaragoza
#5
W
48-40
48
40
+8
H24/10
ACB
Bayern
#18
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A27/10
Euroleague
Valencia
#3
W
44-42
44
42
+2
H30/10
Euroleague
Unicaja
#10
L
45-54
45
54
-9
A01/11
ACB
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#10
D
46-46
46
46
+0
A05/11
Euroleague
Breogan
#7
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H08/11
ACB
89.1Avg total
43.9Scored
45.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.342.986.2+0.443%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.842.183.9-0.347%-
Last 30 away (15)44.843.788.5+1.140%-
Last 10 (10)43.945.289.1-1.330%-
Last 5 (5)43.044.887.8-1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)39.146.185.2-7.012%-
vs Similar (10)43.942.986.8+1.040%-
vs Weaker (12)45.640.886.4+4.867%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#16
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#17
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H12/11
Euroleague
94.6Avg total
52.1Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.243.993.1+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.941.991.8+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)52.142.594.6+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)47.440.888.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)48.343.792.0+4.671%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)49.444.093.4+5.574%-
This opponent (Barcelona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Barcelonatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Barcelona: 91.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.021.9
57.6%
55.2%43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.810.9
39.2%
35.7%32.7
🏀 Free throws20.115.0
74.6%
77.1%15.0
They take 65.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.2%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
35.7%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
77.1%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Barcelona
WWWWWWWLLW
Real Madrid
WWLWWWWWWW
#4
League position
#5
-0.3
Net rating
+23.0
104.9
Offensive rating
114.6
105.3
Defensive rating
91.6
58.1%
Effective FG%
60.2%
58.0%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
14.9%
Turnover %
12.7%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.33
39.2%
3-point %
41.9%
50.9%
Assist %
62.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence104.9 · 114.6Defence105.3 · 91.6Shooting58.1% · 60.2%3-point %39.2% · 41.9%Ball care14.9% · 12.7%Free throws0.31 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)80% · 90%
■ Barcelona   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Barcelona wins
9
Real Madrid wins
Barcelonalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HBreogan99-91
05/11/26AHapoel Tel-Aviv93-90
01/11/26AUnicaja92-89
30/10/26HValencia98-94
27/10/26ABayern88-84
24/10/26HBasket Zaragoza99-81
22/10/26AOlimpia Milano89-81
18/10/26AJoventut Badalona89-113
16/10/26HOlympiacos100-105 OT
13/10/26HMaccabi Tel Aviv90-87
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HCrvena zvezda105-84
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Barcelona
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW70%
HomeWLWLW60%
AwayLWWWW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %70%60%80%
Points / game91.091.690.4
Allowed / game88.791.286.2
Point differential+2.3+0.4+4.2
Avg total179.7182.8176.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%0%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)67% (3)100% (2)
Overtime %10%20%0%
Real Madrid
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW64%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %64%80%50%
Points / game98.5101.895.7
Allowed / game90.188.691.3
Point differential+8.4+13.2+4.3
Avg total188.5190.4187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%80%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %9%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos108280%87.678.7+8.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona107370%91.088.7+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
13 Anadolu Efes104640%84.287.1-2.9
14 Besiktas104640%87.790.9-3.2
15 Virtus Bologna104640%85.689.5-3.9
16 Lyon-Villeurbanne104640%88.393.0-4.7
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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