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Cearense vs Pato Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 09 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Scheduled
Position#17
Record1-6
FormLLWLL
Points / game65.6
Allowed / game83.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.2/10
Above normal
5.7/10
Above normal
Position#15
Record2-6
FormLLLWL
Points / game72.6
Allowed / game81.5
BrazilNBB· Centro de Formacao Olimpica
Other2026-27
Meetings · Cearense v Pato
09 Dec 2026
CEAR v PATO
upcoming
18 Feb 2026
CEAR64
PATO59
13 Jan 2025
CEAR80
PATO76
02 Mar 2024
CEAR90
PATO69
21 Nov 2022
CEAR80
PATO60
02 Mar 2022
CEAR78
PATO84
28 Jan 2021
CEAR68
PATO71
18 Oct 2019
CEAR78
PATO58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cearense win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pato win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
83-107
83
107
-24
76avg 62
H06/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
56-87
56
87
-31
45avg 62
A14/04
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
77-86
77
86
-9
64avg 62
A16/04
NBB
Osasco
#16
L
69-93
69
93
-24
55avg 62
H20/10
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
63-98
63
98
-35
40avg 62
H22/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#12
L
53-96
53
96
-43
no box
A02/11
NBB
Mogi
#2
L
78-89
78
89
-11
no box
A04/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
W
65-58
65
58
+7
no box
H07/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
L
68-75
68
75
-7
no box
H09/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
63-77
63
77
-14
no box
A14/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-23
18-36
22-25
23-23
9-25
21-24
15-24
11-14
23-20
19-23
23-18
12-25
17-32
23-22
13-18
16-21
15-24
17-22
18-26
13-26
11-27
12-31
15-24
15-14
21-11
21-22
19-26
17-30
18-15
10-14
25-16
12-13
16-19
17-15
17-23
18-18
18-17
11-23
16-14
18-23
154.1Avg total
67.5Scored
86.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)65.683.7149.3-18.114%
Season at home (4)66.281.0147.2-14.825%
Season away (3)64.787.3152.0-22.70%
Last 10 (10)67.586.6154.1-19.110%
Last 5 (5)65.479.0144.4-13.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)70.789.2159.9-18.48%
vs Similar (4)78.077.2155.2+0.850%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Pato) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
L
55-88
55
88
-33
50avg 62
A16/04
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
71-92
71
92
-21
58avg 62
A18/04
NBB
Paulistano
#13
L
74-80
74
80
-6
58avg 62
H21/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
W
89-88
89
88
+1
36avg 62
H24/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
65-86
65
86
-21
52avg 62
A27/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#9
L
68-76
68
76
-8
48avg 62
A29/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
66-80
66
80
-14
no box
H07/11
NBB
Bauru
#11
L
78-98
78
98
-20
no box
H09/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
79-77
79
77
+2
no box
A12/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
62-67
62
67
-5
no box
A14/11
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-25
16-19
16-27
11-17
15-24
18-27
18-28
20-13
10-13
18-20
13-30
33-17
22-26
16-22
27-13
24-27
14-24
18-24
16-23
17-15
17-17
18-21
10-19
23-19
18-24
19-16
13-24
16-16
26-28
16-26
19-19
17-25
15-21
20-19
15-22
29-15
14-18
19-22
14-15
15-12
153.9Avg total
70.7Scored
83.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)72.681.5154.1-8.925%
Season at home (4)76.886.5163.2-9.825%
Season away (4)68.576.5145.0-8.025%
Last 10 (10)70.783.2153.9-12.520%
Last 5 (5)70.679.6150.2-9.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)69.882.7152.5-13.05%
vs Similar (8)77.176.8153.9+0.438%
vs Weaker ◀ (1)79.077.0156.0+2.0100%
This opponent (Cearense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: -6.3-6.3Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: -5.9-5.9Q4Q4: -5.2-5.2Q4: +2.9+2.9
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -4.5-4.5Q1: -5.7-5.7Q2Q2: -6.3-6.3Q2: -3.8-3.8Q3Q3: -3.1-3.1Q3: -5.9-5.9Q4Q4: -5.2-5.2Q4: +2.9+2.9
CearensePato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
38-59
38
59
-21
H06/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
30-49
30
49
-19
A14/04
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A16/04
NBB
Osasco
#16
L
40-54
40
54
-14
H20/10
NBB
Pinheiros
#3
L
32-46
32
46
-14
H22/10
NBB
Sao Jose
#12
L
23-58
23
58
-35
A02/11
NBB
Mogi
#2
W
42-33
42
33
+9
A04/11
NBB
Paulistano
#13
L
28-29
28
29
-1
H07/11
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#10
L
33-34
33
34
-1
H09/11
NBB
Minas
#1
L
29-40
29
40
-11
A14/11
NBB
78.2Avg total
33.7Scored
44.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)35.443.879.2-8.323%-
Last 30 at home (15)35.641.977.5-6.327%-
Last 30 away (15)35.345.780.9-10.420%-
Last 10 (10)33.744.578.2-10.810%-
Last 5 (5)31.038.869.8-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)34.944.679.5-9.719%-
vs Similar (4)38.838.277.0+0.550%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Pato) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pinheiros
#2
L
28-44
28
44
-16
A16/04
NBB
Paulistano
#7
L
33-51
33
51
-18
A18/04
NBB
Paulistano
#13
L
28-33
28
33
-5
H21/10
NBB
Botafogo
#14
L
38-48
38
48
-10
H24/10
NBB
Minas
#1
L
32-48
32
48
-16
A27/10
NBB
Cruzeiro
#9
L
35-38
35
38
-3
A29/10
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
37-40
37
40
-3
H07/11
NBB
Bauru
#11
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H09/11
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A12/11
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#7
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A14/11
NBB
77.7Avg total
34.1Scored
43.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)36.340.676.9-4.330%-
Last 30 at home (16)37.438.676.1-1.238%-
Last 30 away (14)34.942.977.8-7.921%-
Last 10 (10)34.143.677.7-9.50%-
Last 5 (5)36.442.478.8-6.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (21)34.541.976.4-7.314%-
vs Similar (8)41.037.478.4+3.675%-
vs Weaker ◀ (1)35.040.075.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Cearense) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 74.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.0 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.718.7
44.8%
49.8%37.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.07.0
29.2%
31.6%21.0
🏀 Free throws24.316.1
66.3%
71.3%16.1
They take 65.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 61.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws7.1 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 69.9 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.015.6
47.3%
49.8%31.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.67.6
25.7%
31.6%22.8
🏀 Free throws11.37.1
62.8%
71.3%7.1
They take 62.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cearense
LLWLLLLLLL
Pato
LWLLLLWLLL
#17
League position
#15
-21.2
Net rating
-23.7
82.4
Offensive rating
70.9
103.6
Defensive rating
94.5
44.4%
Effective FG%
43.1%
58.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
16.2%
Turnover %
20.2%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.18
29.2%
3-point %
25.7%
54.1%
Assist %
75.4%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence82.4 · 70.9Defence103.6 · 94.5Shooting44.4% · 43.1%3-point %29.2% · 25.7%Ball care16.2% · 20.2%Free throws0.37 · 0.18Form (last 10/10)10% · 20%
■ Cearense   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Cearense wins
4
Pato wins
DateGameScore
18/02/26Cearense v Pato64-59
14/11/25Pato v Cearense82-79
13/01/25Cearense v Pato80-76
22/10/24Pato v Cearense89-60
02/03/24Cearense v Pato90-69
29/11/23Pato v Cearense75-76
02/03/23Pato v Cearense82-87
21/11/22Cearense v Pato80-60
02/03/22Cearense v Pato78-84
01/12/21Pato v Cearense66-63
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AMinas63-77
09/11/26HCorinthians Paulista68-75
07/11/26HPaulistano65-58
04/11/26AMogi78-89
02/11/26ASao Jose53-96
22/10/26HPinheiros63-98
20/10/26HOsasco69-93
16/04/26ACruzeiro77-86
14/04/26AMinas56-87
06/04/26HCaxias do Sul83-107
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AUniao Corinthians62-67
12/11/26ACaxias do Sul79-77
09/11/26HBauru78-98
07/11/26HFlamengo66-80
29/10/26ACruzeiro68-76
27/10/26AMinas65-86
24/10/26HBotafogo89-88
21/10/26HPaulistano74-80
18/04/26APaulistano71-92
16/04/26APinheiros55-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cearense
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL14%
HomeLLWL25%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %14%25%0%
Points / game65.666.264.7
Allowed / game83.781.087.3
Point differential-18.1-14.8-22.7
Avg total149.3147.2152.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pato
NBB 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL25%
HomeLWLL25%
AwayLLWL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %25%25%25%
Points / game72.676.868.5
Allowed / game81.586.576.5
Point differential-8.9-9.8-8.0
Avg total154.1163.2145.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Minas880100%85.165.4+19.8
2 Mogi76186%83.173.9+9.3
3 Pinheiros86275%85.273.1+12.1
4 Flamengo75271%80.973.4+7.4
5 Unifacisa75271%79.475.1+4.3
6 Franca85362%78.971.6+7.2
7 Uniao Corinthians74357%72.374.7-2.4
8 Brasilia84450%80.679.8+0.9
9 Cruzeiro63350%76.278.8-2.7
10 Corinthians Paulista73443%80.079.0+1.0
11 Bauru73443%76.777.7-1.0
12 Sao Jose73443%80.381.7-1.4
13 Paulistano73443%69.673.9-4.3
14 Botafogo62433%76.783.0-6.3
15 Pato82625%72.681.5-8.9
16 Osasco61517%77.886.8-9.0
17 Cearense71614%65.683.7-18.1
18 Caxias do Sul7070%64.779.6-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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