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Cearense vs Pato Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 18 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 64-59
21-16 14-24 10-8 19-11
Position#19
Record5-21
FormWLLLL
Points / game77.5
Allowed / game87.9
vs
Position#17
Record7-19
FormLLLWW
Points / game74.1
Allowed / game79.9
BrazilNBB· Centro de Formacao Olimpica
Other2025-26
Meetings · Cearense v Pato
09 Dec 2026
CEAR v PATO
upcoming
18 Feb 2026
CEAR64
PATO59
13 Jan 2025
CEAR80
PATO76
02 Mar 2024
CEAR90
PATO69
21 Nov 2022
CEAR80
PATO60
02 Mar 2022
CEAR78
PATO84
28 Jan 2021
CEAR68
PATO71
18 Oct 2019
CEAR78
PATO58
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Cearense winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

CearenseBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCearense
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
52-68
52
68
-16
39avg 68
A23/12
NBB
Minas
#3
L
81-99
81
99
-18
64avg 68
H27/12
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
78-86
78
86
-8
71avg 68
H29/12
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
81-88
81
88
-7
68avg 68
H10/01
NBB
Vasco
#20
L
73-78
73
78
-5
71avg 68
H13/01
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
86-82
86
82
+4
no box
H16/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
66-71
66
71
-5
55avg 68
H20/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
82-97
82
97
-15
70avg 68
A04/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
76-96
76
96
-20
71avg 68
A07/02
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
76-88
76
88
-12
66avg 68
A09/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-18
7-20
12-15
14-15
18-24
28-16
18-33
17-26
24-19
12-21
19-16
23-30
11-21
20-23
27-20
23-24
20-10
18-25
24-14
11-29
26-22
24-21
15-20
21-19
15-23
18-14
22-19
11-15
28-25
13-25
22-25
19-22
19-26
18-16
18-28
21-26
20-27
12-19
20-22
24-20
160.4Avg total
75.1Scored
85.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)77.587.9165.5-10.419%
Season at home (14)77.786.6164.3-8.921%
Season away (12)77.389.5166.8-12.217%
Last 10 (10)75.185.3160.4-10.210%
Last 5 (5)77.286.8164.0-9.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)76.188.1164.2-12.013%
vs Similar ◀ (7)80.379.6159.9+0.757%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Osasco
#18
W
82-67
82
67
+15
77avg 67
H20/12
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
69-84
69
84
-15
61avg 67
A23/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
67-94
67
94
-27
64avg 67
H29/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
85-91 OT
85
91
-6
78avg 67
H09/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
72-80
72
80
-8
63avg 67
H12/01
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
81-89
81
89
-8
78avg 67
A19/01
NBB
Minas
#3
L
67-75
67
75
-8
54avg 67
A21/01
NBB
Vasco
#20
L
75-84
75
84
-9
64avg 67
H02/02
NBB
Flamengo
#4
W
84-53
84
53
+31
81avg 67
H05/02
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
93-67
93
67
+26
89avg 67
H12/02
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-20
19-15
22-15
20-17
18-20
18-20
8-19
25-25
18-27
15-25
16-21
18-21
15-26
24-17
15-14
16-13
19-22
17-19
19-22
17-17
20-27
19-26
25-17
17-19
27-17
18-23
4-17
18-18
24-19
21-13
20-23
10-29
17-22
25-14
25-7
17-10
27-19
22-13
18-20
26-15
155.9Avg total
77.5Scored
78.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)74.179.9154.0-5.827%
Season at home (14)74.675.7150.4-1.136%
Season away (12)73.584.8158.3-11.317%
Last 10 (10)77.578.4155.9-0.930%
Last 5 (5)80.073.6153.6+6.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)71.582.7154.2-11.210%
vs Similar ◀ (10)82.578.2160.7+4.360%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: -4.2-4.2Q4: +0.0+0.0
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -1.5-1.5Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -3.0-3.0Q2: +1.3+1.3Q3Q3: -1.5-1.5Q3: -0.3-0.3Q4Q4: -4.2-4.2Q4: +0.0+0.0
CearensePato
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
CearenseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
26-38
26
38
-12
A23/12
NBB
Minas
#3
W
46-40
46
40
+6
H27/12
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H29/12
NBB
Flamengo
#4
L
31-44
31
44
-13
H10/01
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
38-35
38
35
+3
H13/01
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
50-43
50
43
+7
H16/01
NBB
Unifacisa
#11
L
33-37
33
37
-4
H20/01
NBB
Sao Jose
#9
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A04/02
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#6
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A07/02
NBB
Mogi
#8
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A09/02
NBB
78.5Avg total
37.0Scored
41.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.243.581.7-5.330%-
Last 30 at home (17)38.541.980.4-3.535%-
Last 30 away (13)37.845.583.3-7.823%-
Last 10 (10)37.041.578.5-4.530%-
Last 5 (5)38.643.682.2-5.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)37.944.282.1-6.322%-
vs Similar ◀ (7)39.041.180.1-2.157%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Osasco
#18
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H20/12
NBB
Brasilia
#5
L
36-40
36
40
-4
A23/12
NBB
Pinheiros
#2
L
33-52
33
52
-19
H29/12
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#13
L
39-43
39
43
-4
H09/01
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#12
L
36-41
36
41
-5
H12/01
NBB
Cruzeiro
#14
L
39-53
39
53
-14
A19/01
NBB
Minas
#3
W
45-40
45
40
+5
A21/01
NBB
Vasco
#20
W
45-32
45
32
+13
H02/02
NBB
Flamengo
#4
W
42-36
42
36
+6
H05/02
NBB
Botafogo
#16
W
49-32
49
32
+17
H12/02
NBB
80.8Avg total
40.4Scored
40.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.041.679.6-3.637%-
Last 30 at home (15)39.338.878.1+0.553%-
Last 30 away (15)36.744.381.0-7.720%-
Last 10 (10)40.440.480.8+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)44.038.682.6+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)37.042.179.1-5.130%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)40.140.580.6-0.450%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Cearense) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Cearensetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Cearense: 70.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.5 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.117.0
43.5%
52.2%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.87.5
30.2%
32.5%22.5
🏀 Free throws19.414.4
74.2%
72.8%14.4
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 77.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 79.7 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.118.1
53.1%
52.2%36.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.79.4
31.6%
32.5%28.2
🏀 Free throws19.413.2
68.0%
72.8%13.2
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Cearense
LLLLWLLLLL
Pato
WWLLLLLLLW
#19
League position
#17
-16.9
Net rating
-0.1
85.0
Offensive rating
91.4
101.9
Defensive rating
91.6
44.2%
Effective FG%
50.5%
54.7%
Opp. effective FG%
51.3%
19.1%
Turnover %
19.4%
28.0%
Off. rebound %
29.0%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.30
30.2%
3-point %
31.6%
58.8%
Assist %
61.5%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence85.0 · 91.4Defence101.9 · 91.6Shooting44.2% · 50.5%3-point %30.2% · 31.6%Ball care19.1% · 19.4%Off. rebounds28.0% · 29.0%Free throws0.30 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)10% · 30%
■ Cearense   ■ Pato
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Cearense wins
5
Pato wins
DateGameScore
14/11/25Pato v Cearense82-79
13/01/25Cearense v Pato80-76
22/10/24Pato v Cearense89-60
02/03/24Cearense v Pato90-69
29/11/23Pato v Cearense75-76
02/03/23Pato v Cearense82-87
21/11/22Cearense v Pato80-60
02/03/22Cearense v Pato78-84
01/12/21Pato v Cearense66-63
28/01/21Cearense v Pato68-71
Cearenselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/26AMogi76-88
07/02/26ACorinthians Paulista76-96
04/02/26ASao Jose82-97
20/01/26HUnifacisa66-71
16/01/26HBotafogo86-82
13/01/26HVasco73-78
10/01/26HFlamengo81-88
29/12/25HCruzeiro78-86
27/12/25HMinas81-99
23/12/25ACaxias do Sul52-68
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/02/26HBotafogo93-67
05/02/26HFlamengo84-53
02/02/26HVasco75-84
21/01/26AMinas67-75
19/01/26ACruzeiro81-89
12/01/26HUniao Corinthians72-80
09/01/26HCaxias do Sul85-91 OT
29/12/25HPinheiros67-94
23/12/25ABrasilia69-84
20/12/25HOsasco82-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Cearense
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL19%
HomeLLLWL21%
AwayLLLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %19%21%17%
Points / game77.577.777.3
Allowed / game87.986.689.5
Point differential-10.4-8.9-12.2
Avg total165.5164.3166.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+8%7%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won29% (7)25% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pato
NBB 2025-26
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW27%
HomeLLLWW36%
AwayLWLLL17%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261412
Win %27%36%17%
Points / game74.174.673.5
Allowed / game79.975.784.8
Point differential-5.8-1.1-11.3
Avg total154.0150.4158.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%21%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)33% (3)50% (2)
Overtime %8%7%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Franca2722581%89.474.6+14.7
2 Pinheiros2621581%86.274.7+11.5
3 Flamengo2621581%87.176.7+10.4
4 Minas2620677%86.780.9+5.8
5 Brasilia2719870%81.972.1+9.7
6 Corinthians Paulista2618869%83.277.5+5.7
7 Sao Jose27171063%82.379.1+3.2
8 Paulistano26161062%80.776.6+4.1
9 Bauru27151256%78.978.1+0.8
10 Mogi26141254%75.869.4+6.4
11 Unifacisa26131350%80.079.7+0.4
12 Uniao Corinthians26131350%79.081.5-2.5
13 Caxias do Sul26111542%72.277.2-5.1
14 Cruzeiro2581732%78.385.1-6.8
15 Rio Claro2581732%76.686.7-10.0
16 Pato2671927%74.179.9-5.8
17 Cearense2652119%77.587.9-10.4
18 Botafogo2652119%71.783.0-11.2
19 Osasco2542116%75.087.5-12.5
20 Vasco2742315%69.379.4-10.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Cearense2114101964
Pato162481159
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