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Fenerbahce vs Real Madrid Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 29 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 17:45
Scheduled
Position#7
Record7-4
FormLWWWL
Points / game82.9
Allowed / game78.6
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.7/10
Below normal
6.3/10
Above normal
Position#5
Record7-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game90.1
EuropeEuroleagueRound 25· Ulker Spor ve Etkinlik Salonu
European cup2026
Meetings · Fenerbahce v Real Madrid
29 Jan 2027
FEN v MAD
upcoming
09 Apr 2026
FEN69
MAD74
06 Feb 2025
FEN78
MAD67
30 Nov 2023
FEN100
MAD99
02 Dec 2022
FEN71
MAD85
08 Feb 2022
FEN66
MAD51
08 Apr 2021
FEN67
MAD93
19 May 2019
FEN75
MAD94
28 Dec 2018
FEN65
MAD63
28 Dec 2017
FEN77
MAD79
19 May 2017
FEN84
MAD75
01 Dec 2016
FEN78
MAD77
14 Apr 2016
FEN100
MAD78
12 Apr 2016
FEN75
MAD69
30 Oct 2015
FEN77
MAD66
25 Oct 2012
FEN75
MAD83
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Fenerbahce win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Real Madrid win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

FenerbahceLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormFenerbahce
Date
Competition
Partizan
#11
W
74-65
74
65
+9
73avg 79
H15/10
Euroleague
Petkim Spor
#5
L
77-82
77
82
-5
67avg 79
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Olympiacos
#2
W
64-61
64
61
+3
51avg 79
A23/10
Euroleague
Karsiyaka
#10
W
97-72
97
72
+25
98avg 79
A25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Valencia
#3
L
78-86
78
86
-8
70avg 79
A27/10
Euroleague
Real Madrid
#5
L
76-95
76
95
-19
64avg 79
A29/10
Euroleague
Tofas
#8
W
88-77
88
77
+11
85avg 79
H01/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Baskonia
#20
W
84-65
84
65
+19
no box
H05/11
Euroleague
Bursaspor
#16
W
78-59
78
59
+19
no box
A07/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Paris
#14
L
109-111 OT
109
111
-2
no box
A11/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-19
13-9
34-16
15-21
12-24
21-15
18-19
26-24
8-20
16-14
21-15
19-12
25-16
24-20
25-14
23-22
9-19
16-17
21-24
32-26
24-22
18-25
13-23
21-25
25-21
22-22
23-16
18-18
33-18
19-14
11-9
21-24
23-15
20-21
16-11
19-12
14-23
29-27
29-22
20-20
159.8Avg total
82.5Scored
77.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)82.978.6161.5+4.364%
Season at home (6)85.270.0155.2+15.2100%
Season away (5)80.289.0169.2-8.820%
Last 10 (10)82.577.3159.8+5.260%
Last 5 (5)87.081.4168.4+5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)68.587.0155.5-18.50%
vs Similar (16)81.578.9160.4+2.669%
vs Weaker (12)90.577.0167.5+13.583%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMadrid
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
111-92
111
92
+19
109avg 91
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
119-84
119
84
+35
120avg 91
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
W
113-99
113
99
+14
108avg 91
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#18
W
122-86
122
86
+36
131avg 91
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
104-86
104
86
+18
102avg 91
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
95-76
95
76
+19
90avg 91
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
90-79
90
79
+11
82avg 91
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
112-115 OT
112
115
-3
no box
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
90-71
90
71
+19
no box
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
105-84
105
84
+21
no box
H12/11
Euroleague
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-25
34-23
16-23
34-21
36-13
26-22
27-22
30-27
23-30
28-22
30-21
32-26
31-21
23-19
27-23
41-23
30-19
26-27
26-23
22-17
22-24
25-18
23-13
25-21
14-17
25-14
25-22
26-26
18-24
30-27
25-23
28-27
22-20
25-19
16-16
27-16
38-20
18-21
26-18
23-25
193.3Avg total
106.1Scored
87.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)98.590.1188.5+8.464%
Season at home (5)101.888.6190.4+13.280%
Season away (6)95.791.3187.0+4.350%
Last 10 (10)106.187.2193.3+18.990%
Last 5 (5)98.485.0183.4+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)92.389.4181.7+2.943%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)98.689.1187.7+9.561%
This opponent (Fenerbahce) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +5.9+5.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +4.8+4.8Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +4.8+4.8Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +5.9+5.9
FenerbahceReal Madrid
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
FenerbahceLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Partizan
#11
L
25-28
25
28
-3
H15/10
Euroleague
Petkim Spor
#5
L
33-39
33
39
-6
H18/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Olympiacos
#2
L
24-34
24
34
-10
A23/10
Euroleague
Karsiyaka
#10
W
49-36
49
36
+13
A25/10
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Valencia
#3
L
25-36
25
36
-11
A27/10
Euroleague
Real Madrid
#5
L
42-47
42
47
-5
A29/10
Euroleague
Tofas
#8
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H01/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Baskonia
#20
W
52-32
52
32
+20
H05/11
Euroleague
Bursaspor
#16
W
43-36
43
36
+7
A07/11
Basketbol Süper Ligi
Paris
#14
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A11/11
Euroleague
76.4Avg total
38.3Scored
38.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.739.981.6+1.853%-
Last 30 at home (14)40.937.978.8+3.164%-
Last 30 away (16)42.441.884.1+0.644%-
Last 10 (10)38.338.176.4+0.240%-
Last 5 (5)45.441.687.0+3.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)33.040.073.0-7.00%-
vs Similar (16)38.841.380.1-2.638%-
vs Weaker (12)47.138.185.2+9.083%-
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Real MadridLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Lyon-Villeurbanne
#15
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H15/10
Euroleague
Bilbao
#8
W
62-35
62
35
+27
H18/10
ACB
Maccabi Tel Aviv
#17
L
51-52
51
52
-1
A22/10
Euroleague
Forca Lleida
#18
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/10
ACB
Baskonia
#20
W
56-46
56
46
+10
A27/10
Euroleague
Fenerbahce
#7
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H29/10
Euroleague
San Pablo Burgos
#15
W
39-31
39
31
+8
H01/11
ACB
Panathinaikos
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H04/11
Euroleague
Murcia
#11
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H08/11
ACB
Crvena zvezda
#6
W
56-41
56
41
+15
H12/11
Euroleague
94.6Avg total
52.1Scored
42.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.243.993.1+5.373%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.941.991.8+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)48.545.994.3+2.667%-
Last 10 (10)52.142.594.6+9.680%-
Last 5 (5)47.440.888.2+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (7)48.343.792.0+4.671%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)49.444.093.4+5.574%-
This opponent (Fenerbahce) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Fenerbahcetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Fenerbahce: 82.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.518.9
58.2%
55.2%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.79.5
33.1%
35.7%28.5
🏀 Free throws20.415.9
77.9%
77.1%15.9
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Real Madridtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Real Madrid: 106.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.8 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.820.6
57.5%
55.2%41.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.815.0
41.9%
35.7%45.0
🏀 Free throws23.519.8
84.3%
77.1%19.8
They take 71.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 50% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Fenerbahce
LWWWLLWWLW
Real Madrid
WWLWWWWWWW
#7
League position
#5
+3.1
Net rating
+23.0
97.9
Offensive rating
114.6
94.8
Defensive rating
91.6
54.2%
Effective FG%
60.2%
51.5%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
15.6%
Turnover %
12.7%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.33
33.1%
3-point %
41.9%
62.7%
Assist %
62.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence97.9 · 114.6Defence94.8 · 91.6Shooting54.2% · 60.2%3-point %33.1% · 41.9%Ball care15.6% · 12.7%Free throws0.33 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Fenerbahce   ■ Real Madrid
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Fenerbahce wins
5
Real Madrid wins
Fenerbahcelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AParis109-111 OT
07/11/26ABursaspor78-59
05/11/26HBaskonia84-65
01/11/26HTofas88-77
29/10/26AReal Madrid76-95
27/10/26AValencia78-86
25/10/26AKarsiyaka97-72
23/10/26AOlympiacos64-61
18/10/26HPetkim Spor77-82
15/10/26HPartizan74-65
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HCrvena zvezda105-84
08/11/26HMurcia90-71
04/11/26HPanathinaikos112-115 OT
01/11/26HSan Pablo Burgos90-79
29/10/26HFenerbahce95-76
27/10/26ABaskonia104-86
25/10/26AForca Lleida122-86
22/10/26AMaccabi Tel Aviv113-99
18/10/26HBilbao119-84
15/10/26HLyon-Villeurbanne111-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Fenerbahce
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL64%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWLLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1165
Win %64%100%20%
Points / game82.985.280.2
Allowed / game78.670.089.0
Point differential+4.3+15.2-8.8
Avg total161.5155.2169.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%83%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %9%0%20%
Real Madrid
Euroleague 2026
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW64%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayLLWWW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %64%80%50%
Points / game98.5101.895.7
Allowed / game90.188.691.3
Point differential+8.4+13.2+4.3
Avg total188.5190.4187.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+55%80%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %9%20%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Panathinaikos118373%86.478.5+7.9
2 Olympiacos118373%88.580.7+7.7
3 Valencia118373%96.488.9+7.5
4 Barcelona118373%89.687.4+2.3
5 Real Madrid117464%98.590.1+8.4
6 Crvena zvezda117464%83.377.7+5.5
7 Fenerbahce117464%82.978.6+4.3
8 Zalgiris Kaunas117464%85.682.4+3.3
9 Dubai117464%86.585.6+0.9
10 Hapoel Tel-Aviv116555%90.487.2+3.2
11 Partizan116555%79.577.7+1.7
12 Anadolu Efes115645%85.987.5-1.5
13 Besiktas115645%88.490.9-2.5
14 Paris115645%91.094.1-3.1
15 Lyon-Villeurbanne114736%88.593.2-4.6
16 Virtus Bologna114736%86.190.7-4.6
17 Maccabi Tel Aviv113827%84.392.1-7.8
18 Bayern113827%86.895.2-8.4
19 Olimpia Milano111109%81.389.3-8.0
20 Baskonia111109%79.991.9-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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