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Adelaide vs Melbourne United Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 06:30
Final 100-81
27-17 28-25 22-20 23-19
Position#6
Record8-11
FormWLLLW
Points / game92.1
Allowed / game97.6
vs
Position#2
Record13-8
FormLLLLW
Points / game95.4
Allowed / game90.1
AustraliaNBLRound 15· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2024-25
Meetings · Adelaide v Melbourne United
12 Nov 2026
ADEL v MELB
upcoming
07 Oct 2026
ADEL91
MELB96
12 Dec 2025
ADEL114
MELB105
04 Jan 2025
ADEL100
MELB81
06 Jan 2024
ADEL100
MELB96
01 Oct 2023
ADEL74
MELB82
21 Jan 2023
ADEL87
MELB94
30 Jan 2022
ADEL88
MELB83
22 Jan 2022
ADEL78
MELB97
25 Feb 2021
ADEL73
MELB82
15 Jan 2021
ADEL65
MELB89
11 Jan 2020
ADEL100
MELB86
10 Feb 2019
ADEL87
MELB89
28 Jan 2019
ADEL91
MELB114
25 Mar 2018
ADEL90
MELB81
18 Mar 2018
ADEL110
MELB95
14 Oct 2017
ADEL79
MELB99
05 Oct 2017
ADEL97
MELB99
12 Jan 2017
ADEL100
MELB73
14 Oct 2016
ADEL87
MELB98
22 Jan 2016
ADEL90
MELB81
23 Dec 2015
ADEL91
MELB81
12 Dec 2014
ADEL90
MELB77
15 Nov 2014
ADEL79
MELB118
01 Apr 2014
ADEL102
MELB63
27 Mar 2014
ADEL101
MELB85
23 Mar 2014
ADEL99
MELB94
08 Nov 2013
ADEL90
MELB87
10 Feb 2013
ADEL71
MELB84
07 Oct 2012
ADEL84
MELB61
19 Nov 2011
ADEL95
MELB89
18 Mar 2011
ADEL76
MELB79
18 Feb 2011
ADEL83
MELB86
05 Dec 2009
ADEL84
MELB87
21 Oct 2009
ADEL70
MELB81
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne United winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
93-79
93
79
+14
88avg 83
H10/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
93-113
93
113
-20
84avg 83
A17/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
L
73-77
73
77
-4
56avg 83
H30/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
83-102
83
102
-19
69avg 83
A06/12
NBL
Perth
#3
L
105-115
105
115
-10
98avg 83
H08/12
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
111-94
111
94
+17
108avg 83
H14/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
86-106
86
106
-20
74avg 83
A21/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
90-111
90
111
-21
76avg 83
H24/12
NBL
Perth
#3
L
92-116
92
116
-24
74avg 83
H28/12
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
111-96
111
96
+15
106avg 83
A30/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-22
24-19
26-26
17-12
22-29
24-30
27-26
20-28
23-29
19-14
11-17
20-17
24-34
23-19
17-22
19-27
32-29
28-25
22-25
23-36
22-22
36-27
20-27
33-18
22-26
16-30
33-27
15-23
23-24
25-27
22-27
20-33
26-26
16-29
21-23
29-38
32-12
30-31
28-25
21-28
194.6Avg total
93.7Scored
100.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)92.197.6189.7-5.642%
Season at home (11)92.492.9185.3-0.555%
Season away (8)91.6104.1195.8-12.525%
Last 10 (10)93.7100.9194.6-7.230%
Last 5 (5)98.0104.6202.6-6.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)92.495.6188.1-3.256%
vs Similar (11)88.193.6181.7-5.536%
vs Weaker (3)102.093.0195.0+9.067%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
120-103
120
103
+17
120avg 85
A07/11
NBL
Perth
#3
W
106-97
106
97
+9
103avg 85
H09/11
NBL
Adelaide
#6
W
113-93
113
93
+20
109avg 85
H17/11
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
101-98
101
98
+3
102avg 85
H01/12
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
97-70
97
70
+27
90avg 85
A05/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
114-122
114
122
-8
102avg 85
H08/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
93-106
93
106
-13
79avg 85
H13/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
97-109
97
109
-12
88avg 85
A15/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
L
91-97
91
97
-6
86avg 85
H23/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
76-66
76
66
+10
72avg 85
A26/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-20
28-25
33-26
35-32
31-29
20-36
32-12
23-20
29-22
30-24
26-27
28-20
27-28
38-21
14-26
22-23
28-24
18-19
24-7
27-20
28-28
29-29
30-31
27-34
24-27
23-19
15-27
31-33
36-24
23-27
20-32
18-26
26-36
21-15
20-17
24-29
25-13
21-16
13-22
17-15
196.9Avg total
100.8Scored
96.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)95.490.1185.5+5.362%
Season at home (13)96.694.2190.8+2.554%
Season away (8)93.483.5176.9+9.975%
Last 10 (10)100.896.1196.9+4.760%
Last 5 (5)94.2100.0194.2-5.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)92.596.5189.0-4.050%
vs Similar (12)92.488.1180.5+4.358%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)97.891.7189.5+6.162%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -4.3-4.3Q4: +0.0+0.0
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +2.7+2.7Q2Q2: -1.0-1.0Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: +0.0+0.0Q4Q4: -4.3-4.3Q4: +0.0+0.0
AdelaideMelbourne United
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
50-41
50
41
+9
H10/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#2
L
46-59
46
59
-13
A17/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H30/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
47-53
47
53
-6
A06/12
NBL
Perth
#3
W
60-54
60
54
+6
H08/12
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
58-49
58
49
+9
H14/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
L
38-56
38
56
-18
A21/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H24/12
NBL
Perth
#3
L
42-55
42
55
-13
H28/12
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
62-43
62
43
+19
A30/12
NBL
99.7Avg total
49.3Scored
50.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.547.094.5+0.447%-
Last 30 at home (16)46.143.689.7+2.656%-
Last 30 away (14)49.051.0100.0-2.036%-
Last 10 (10)49.350.499.7-1.140%-
Last 5 (5)49.650.8100.4-1.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)47.446.693.9+0.850%-
vs Similar (11)45.546.391.8-0.745%-
vs Weaker (3)55.052.3107.3+2.733%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
52-45
52
45
+7
A07/11
NBL
Perth
#3
L
51-65
51
65
-14
H09/11
NBL
Adelaide
#6
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H17/11
NBL
Sydney
#4
W
65-49
65
49
+16
H01/12
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A05/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H08/12
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H13/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
59-51
59
51
+8
A15/12
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
L
47-51
47
51
-4
H23/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
46-29
46
29
+17
A26/12
NBL
101.1Avg total
52.9Scored
48.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.845.994.7+2.963%-
Last 30 at home (19)49.748.397.9+1.453%-
Last 30 away (11)47.341.789.0+5.582%-
Last 10 (10)52.948.2101.1+4.770%-
Last 5 (5)51.246.898.0+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)43.541.585.0+2.0100%-
vs Similar (12)49.845.395.2+4.575%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)48.746.895.5+1.950%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 93.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.323.1
52.1%
52.3%46.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.79.4
36.6%
35.1%28.2
🏀 Free throws25.518.7
73.3%
74.7%18.7
They take 70.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 99.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 92.3 points a game
49%
33%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.023.4
55.7%
52.3%46.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.812.2
38.4%
35.1%36.6
🏀 Free throws22.215.8
71.2%
74.7%15.8
They take 73.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
WLLLWLLLLW
Melbourne United
WLLLLWWWWW
#6
League position
#2
-8.4
Net rating
+5.4
114.4
Offensive rating
120.0
122.8
Defensive rating
114.6
53.1%
Effective FG%
56.5%
58.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.2%
12.5%
Turnover %
14.8%
25.1%
Off. rebound %
32.8%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.30
36.6%
3-point %
38.4%
52.3%
Assist %
66.0%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence114.4 · 120.0Defence122.8 · 114.6Shooting53.1% · 56.5%3-point %36.6% · 38.4%Ball care12.5% · 14.8%Off. rebounds25.1% · 32.8%Free throws0.36 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)30% · 60%
■ Adelaide   ■ Melbourne United
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Adelaide wins
7
Melbourne United wins
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/24ASydney111-96
28/12/24HPerth92-116
24/12/24HBrisbane Bullets90-111
21/12/24ASouth East Melbourne86-106
14/12/24HNew Zealand Breakers111-94
08/12/24HPerth105-115
06/12/24ABrisbane Bullets83-102
30/11/24HTasmania JackJumpers73-77
17/11/24AMelbourne United93-113
10/11/24HIllawarra Hawks93-79
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/12/24ACairns Taipans76-66
23/12/24HTasmania JackJumpers91-97
15/12/24ASouth East Melbourne97-109
13/12/24HIllawarra Hawks93-106
08/12/24HBrisbane Bullets114-122
05/12/24ANew Zealand Breakers97-70
01/12/24HSydney101-98
17/11/24HAdelaide113-93
09/11/24HPerth106-97
07/11/24ABrisbane Bullets120-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW42%
HomeLLWLL55%
AwayLLLLW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19118
Win %42%55%25%
Points / game92.192.491.6
Allowed / game97.692.9104.1
Point differential-5.6-0.5-12.5
Avg total189.7185.3195.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+26%36%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %5%9%0%
Melbourne United
NBL 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW62%
HomeWWLLL54%
AwayWWWLW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21138
Win %62%54%75%
Points / game95.496.693.4
Allowed / game90.194.283.5
Point differential+5.3+2.5+9.9
Avg total185.5190.8176.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%23%62%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (3)100% (2)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Illawarra Hawks2013765%101.592.7+8.9
2 Melbourne United2113862%95.490.1+5.3
3 Tasmania JackJumpers1911858%83.783.3+0.4
4 Sydney2112957%90.586.7+3.8
5 Perth2011955%97.897.0+0.8
6 South East Melbourne20101050%92.890.2+2.7
7 Brisbane Bullets1991047%95.396.5-1.2
8 New Zealand Breakers1981142%85.190.5-5.5
9 Adelaide1981142%92.197.6-5.6
10 Cairns Taipans2041620%84.395.0-10.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Adelaide27282223100
Melbourne United1725201981
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