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Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 02 Jan 2016
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 106-82
22-10 36-35 22-16 26-21
Position#9
Record22-17
FormLWWLL
Points / game96.8
Allowed / game95.6
vs
Position#19
Record19-20
FormLWWWW
Points / game99.9
Allowed / game100.7
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2015-16
Meetings · Miami Heat v Dallas Mavericks
26 Oct 2026
MIA109
DAL113
24 Nov 2025
MIA106
DAL102
24 Nov 2024
MIA123
DAL118
10 Apr 2024
MIA92
DAL111
01 Apr 2023
MIA129
DAL122
15 Feb 2022
MIA99
DAL107
17 Aug 2021
MIA82
DAL83
04 May 2021
MIA113
DAL127
28 Feb 2020
MIA126
DAL118
28 Mar 2019
MIA105
DAL99
22 Dec 2017
MIA113
DAL101
19 Jan 2017
MIA99
DAL95
09 Jul 2016
MIA64
DAL83
01 Jan 2016
MIA106
DAL82
30 Jan 2015
MIA72
DAL93
15 Nov 2013
MIA110
DAL104
02 Jan 2013
MIA119
DAL109
29 Mar 2012
MIA106
DAL85
12 Jun 2011
MIA95
DAL105
02 Jun 2011
MIA93
DAL95
31 May 2011
MIA92
DAL84
20 Dec 2010
MIA96
DAL98
11 Dec 2009
MIA93
DAL106
31 Jan 2009
MIA96
DAL111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Dallas Mavericks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
W
100-97
100
97
+3
H13/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
100-88
100
88
+12
A15/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
104-98
104
98
+6
A17/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
94-108
94
108
-14
H19/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
116-109
116
109
+7
H20/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#15
L
92-93
92
93
-1
H23/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#25
W
94-88 OT
94
88
+6
H25/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
108-101
108
101
+7
A27/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
105-111
105
111
-6
H29/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
L
90-99 OT
90
99
-9
A30/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-27
27-29
23-22
29-19
22-20
25-18
27-23
26-27
22-30
33-20
29-28
20-20
25-27
30-23
22-31
17-27
23-32
29-30
30-24
34-23
34-18
18-36
23-18
17-21
27-15
15-23
21-14
15-26
20-24
24-32
25-20
39-25
26-24
32-20
19-34
28-33
30-26
17-21
15-22
21-14
199.5Avg total
100.3Scored
99.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)96.895.6192.4+1.256%
Season at home (24)98.796.2194.9+2.462%
Season away (15)93.894.6188.4-0.847%
Last 10 (10)100.399.2199.5+1.160%
Last 5 (5)97.898.4196.2-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)97.095.0192.0+2.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (18)96.497.6194.0-1.144%
vs Weaker (11)97.292.3189.5+4.973%
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#10
L
95-98
95
98
-3
H10/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#16
L
111-114
111
114
-3
H13/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
104-94
104
94
+10
H15/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
81-107
81
107
-26
A17/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
W
97-88
97
88
+9
H19/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
99-103
99
103
-4
A23/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
119-118 OT
119
118
+1
A24/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
118-111
118
111
+7
H27/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#24
W
103-93
103
93
+10
H29/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
114-91
114
91
+23
H31/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-22
21-27
28-27
23-22
28-26
22-25
22-39
39-24
25-21
21-22
31-15
27-36
19-20
28-25
17-30
17-32
25-26
30-23
20-17
22-22
16-32
20-17
31-23
32-31
32-26
32-27
17-34
27-21
33-26
26-34
31-29
28-22
34-24
26-27
19-21
24-21
27-21
33-21
27-26
27-23
205.8Avg total
104.1Scored
101.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)99.9100.7200.7-0.849%
Season at home (18)99.497.1196.4+2.356%
Season away (21)100.4103.9204.3-3.443%
Last 10 (10)104.1101.7205.8+2.460%
Last 5 (5)110.6103.2213.8+7.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)101.6101.9203.4-0.333%
vs Similar ◀ (17)103.2101.9205.1+1.465%
vs Weaker (4)101.094.8195.8+6.2100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.7+0.7Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +1.1+1.1Q4: +1.2+1.2
Miami HeatDallas Mavericks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
L
48-56
48
56
-8
H13/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
47-38
47
38
+9
A15/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A17/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
W
55-50
55
50
+5
H19/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
L
52-62
52
62
-10
H20/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#15
L
52-54
52
54
-2
H23/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#25
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H25/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
L
44-56
44
56
-12
A27/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H29/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A30/12
NBA
99.5Avg total
50.0Scored
49.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.249.297.4-0.947%-
Last 30 at home (19)49.349.398.6+0.047%-
Last 30 away (11)46.448.995.3-2.545%-
Last 10 (10)50.049.599.5+0.550%-
Last 5 (5)48.647.896.4+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)50.051.0101.0-1.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)48.051.799.7-3.733%-
vs Weaker (11)48.544.993.4+3.573%-
This opponent (Dallas Mavericks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Dallas MavericksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#10
L
44-49
44
49
-5
H10/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#16
L
50-51
50
51
-1
H13/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
46-43
46
43
+3
H15/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
47-45
47
45
+2
A17/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
W
55-49
55
49
+6
H19/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
36-49
36
49
-13
A23/12
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
64-53
64
53
+11
A24/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H27/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#24
W
60-51
60
51
+9
H29/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
60-42
60
42
+18
H31/12
NBA
101.3Avg total
52.1Scored
49.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.849.7100.4+1.147%-
Last 30 at home (15)51.949.5101.3+2.447%-
Last 30 away (15)49.749.999.5-0.247%-
Last 10 (10)52.149.2101.3+2.960%-
Last 5 (5)55.851.0106.8+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)48.150.898.9-2.722%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)51.550.1101.5+1.447%-
vs Weaker (4)53.845.599.2+8.2100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 100.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀25%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.0 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 25% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.629.5
51.2%
49.0%59.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.48.3
37.1%
35.3%24.9
🏀 Free throws21.516.4
76.3%
75.5%16.4
They take 80.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Dallas Maverickstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Dallas Mavericks: 103.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.326.6
48.1%
49.0%53.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.111.7
38.9%
35.3%35.1
🏀 Free throws19.115.1
79.1%
75.5%15.1
They take 85.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Jan 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLWWLWLWWW
Dallas Mavericks
WWWWLWLWLL
#9
League position
#19
+1.2
Net rating
+3.5
108.2
Offensive rating
107.7
107.0
Defensive rating
104.2
52.4%
Effective FG%
51.7%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.4%
12.9%
Turnover %
12.2%
22.6%
Off. rebound %
21.6%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.22
37.1%
3-point %
38.9%
53.4%
Assist %
56.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence108.2 · 107.7Defence107.0 · 104.2Shooting52.4% · 51.7%3-point %37.1% · 38.9%Ball care12.9% · 12.2%Off. rebounds22.6% · 21.6%Free throws0.27 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Dallas Mavericks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Miami Heat wins
3
Dallas Mavericks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/12/15AMemphis Grizzlies90-99 OT
29/12/15HBrooklyn Nets105-111
27/12/15AOrlando Magic108-101
25/12/15HNew Orleans Pelicans94-88 OT
23/12/15HDetroit Pistons92-93
20/12/15HPortland Trail Blazers116-109
19/12/15HToronto Raptors94-108
17/12/15ABrooklyn Nets104-98
15/12/15AAtlanta Hawks100-88
13/12/15HMemphis Grizzlies100-97
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/12/15HGolden State Warriors114-91
29/12/15HMilwaukee Bucks103-93
27/12/15HChicago Bulls118-111
24/12/15ABrooklyn Nets119-118 OT
23/12/15AToronto Raptors99-103
19/12/15HMemphis Grizzlies97-88
17/12/15AIndiana Pacers81-107
15/12/15HPhoenix Suns104-94
13/12/15HWashington Wizards111-114
10/12/15HAtlanta Hawks95-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL56%
HomeLWLWL62%
AwayLWWWL47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games392415
Win %56%62%47%
Points / game96.898.793.8
Allowed / game95.696.294.6
Point differential+1.2+2.4-0.8
Avg total192.4194.9188.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%25%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)75% (8)25% (4)
Overtime %8%4%13%
Dallas Mavericks
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW49%
HomeWWWWW56%
AwayWWLLW43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games391821
Win %49%56%43%
Points / game99.999.4100.4
Allowed / game100.797.1103.9
Point differential-0.8+2.3-3.4
Avg total200.7196.4204.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%28%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won30% (10)0% (3)43% (7)
Overtime %5%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors3933685%112.1102.5+9.6
2 San Antonio Spurs40301075%100.889.6+11.2
3 Oklahoma City Thunder38271171%108.2100.0+8.2
4 Toronto Raptors40251562%98.995.1+3.8
5 Charlotte Hornets39241562%101.797.5+4.2
6 Atlanta Hawks41251661%100.599.0+1.5
7 Orlando Magic40241660%100.898.7+2.1
8 Los Angeles Clippers40241660%102.1100.8+1.3
9 Boston Celtics37221559%102.698.2+4.4
10 Cleveland Cavaliers37221559%98.796.1+2.5
11 Indiana Pacers39231659%102.798.9+3.8
12 Chicago Bulls38221658%101.1101.0+0.1
13 Memphis Grizzlies40231757%95.196.5-1.4
14 Miami Heat39221756%96.895.6+1.2
15 Detroit Pistons41212051%101.799.2+2.5
16 Dallas Mavericks39192049%99.9100.7-0.8
17 Washington Wizards37181949%102.7104.2-1.5
18 New York Knicks38182047%97.999.1-1.1
19 Houston Rockets42192345%104.8106.2-1.4
20 Utah Jazz38172145%97.197.3-0.1
21 Sacramento Kings38172145%103.8105.8-2.1
22 Portland Trail Blazers42172540%101.6102.2-0.6
23 Denver Nuggets40162440%99.1102.5-3.4
24 Phoenix Suns41162539%102.8104.6-1.8
25 Milwaukee Bucks40152538%98.3103.8-5.5
26 Minnesota Timberwolves40142635%99.2103.4-4.2
27 New Orleans Pelicans39132633%102.0106.7-4.7
28 Brooklyn Nets37112630%97.2102.7-5.5
29 Los Angeles Lakers4083220%96.5106.7-10.1
30 Philadelphia 76ers4153612%93.0104.4-11.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat22362226106
Dallas Mavericks1035162182
← all games of the day
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